If there is one guy I have been following relatively closely throughout this year in case I wanted to pick up a bat, it has been Domonic Brown. In his first year as a starter and his hype at an all-time low, he is available in most leagues and can be had at really any time. To me, now is the time to pick him up and give him an opportunity.
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Batters always seem to heat once summer rolls around. While some players may like to play in the summer versus the cooler months, the warmer weather also increases hitter production. Over the the rest of the year, our authors will be giving our readers a heads up for any possible games which may be hitter or pitcher friendly.
Weather has a significant effect on the distance a ball travels. In his book, the Physics of Baseball, Robert K. Adair noted a 10 degree temperature increase leads to an extra four feet on a 400-foot fly ball and each one mile per hour following wind speed means an extra three feet. For example, a fly ball hit at Wrigley field will travel 38 feet further on a day with the wing blowing out five mph and at 80 degrees versus an early spring day when the wind is blowing in five mph and the temperature is 60 degrees. This information shouldn’t be used to start Wade Davis over King Felix, but if an owner is deciding between a couple of similar players, it could be used as a tie-breaker.
The injury bug continues its rampage through the backend of bullpens across Major League Baseball. The most recent victims, the Atlanta Braves, lost two of their most reliable middle relievers this decade to season-ending elbow surgeries. Without Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty — who combined for 447 appearances and 160 holds since ‘10 — Braves skipper Fredi Gonzalez will be signaling for different arms during the middle innings.
And with a fresh set of faces trotting to the bump, the fantasy baseball community — more specifically those in holds leagues — should be able to find some hidden gems in the Atlanta ‘pen.
Let’s take a look at the middle arms currently on Atlanta’s 25-man roster.
I have to admit that when I saw the most recent catcher rankings from the legendary RotoGraphs Four, I was a bit taken aback when I saw Evan Gattis ranked as the 16th best catcher, residing above the likes of players such as J.P . Arencibia, A.J. Ellis and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Sure, his first month and a half of the season as an everyday player was an exciting, feel-good story — going from janitor contemplating suicide to heroic major league cult icon — but with both Brian McCann and Jason Heyward returning to the lineup, he was headed for more of a reserve role. To me, these rankings put far too much weight on past performance than expected production moving forward. Gattis was a great early-season novelty, but the knowledgeable fantasy owner was well aware that his time was up. Read the rest of this entry »
You got a bonus pick last week and we still killed it overall. Edwin Jackson was the only ho-hum start, posting a decent ERA but failing to strike many batters out or secure a victory. The rest were on point, though, so let’s try and ride that momentum for what might be the final edition of “Stream Aim Fire” before we move to a new format. As always, I aim for 50/25/15/5 ownership wherever possible (this week it wasn’t, really).
I also want to note quickly that if the Arz/SD series were in Petco, I’d be rolling with Stults, McCarthy and Cashner. As it is, though, it’s going to be nearly 100 degrees at Chase Field, pumping up the likely run scoring environment for that series. Chase has been uncommonly friendly so far but won’t be as things heat up.
A.J. Griffin (49% owned) – The strikeouts are down a bit and the walks up a bit from his stellar rookie season, but Griffin is still a decent fantasy option. The decline in ground ball rate is also of some concern, as is the ridiculous 24.1% line drive rate. So why stream a 4.20 FIP given all of these negative indicators? In a word, Astros. The Streamin’ ‘Stros continue to be an effective strategy (and unfortunately the Marlins don’t provide us with any options for Friday and Saturday), as they have a below-average wOBA and a well above-average strikeout rate. Last time he faced Houston, he posted 8 strikeouts in six innings, allowing eight baserunners and just a pair of runs. Dial it up again.
I had heard a lot of varied opinions about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Gerrit Cole over the last couple years so I was glad of the chance to finally lay eyes on him live this week. It’s clear he has tremendous stuff and a talented arm. Whether Cole ever becomes the kind of pitcher who can lead the Pirates staff back to the playoffs or not remains to be seen.
In his first two full seasons with the Rays, Jeremy Hellickson has perplexed the saber-nerds. How does a guy who has posted pretty weak strikeout rates, walked more batters per nine than the league average and has allowed more fly balls than grounders manage to prevent earned runs like he’s one of the best pitchers in the American League? The answer is actually pretty simple — he stranded runners at league leading rates and avoided hits on balls in play like a champ.
Today’s Roto Riteup covers two injuries, one demotion, and one singular superstar.
On today’s agenda:
1. Mike Trout’s Sophomore Season
2. Jaime Garcia and Shoulder Surgery
3. Vance Worley gets demoted
4. Adam Eaton sees a setback
• Uh oh. Fernando Rodney is at it again. The crooked-lidded closer blew his fourth save of the season this afternoon, giving up a solo shot to Jose Bautista. While the home run was the real punch, the bigger concern for Rodney’s owners is that manager Joe Maddon initially left him in, but then yanked him after he walked yet another batter on the season. If you look at Rodney’s BB% the last five seasons, they read 16%, 12%, 11%, 19%, 5%, 20%. Spot the outlier?
Before the season started, the catcher consensus rankings put Victor Martinez sixth overall and one ranker had him as high as fourth. Now that we’re two months in, Victor Martinez ranks dead last if you’re looking at wins above replacement and if you throw away defensive adjustments, he’s probably second to last, thanks to Miguel Montero.
Martinez owns a career .300/.367/.463 line and as recently as 2011, he hit .330/.380/.470 with a dozen home runs and 103 RBI. As catchers go, this is pretty darn valuable. Coming off of knee surgery that caused him to miss all of 2012, he was looking like a relative bargain, even if he took a little time to re-adjust after all the time off. Well, the time to re-adjust has passed and after 180 plate appearances, we have a catcher-eligible bat who resembles nothing like the old Victor Martinez, with a .221/.278/.307 slash line and a pair of home runs. Is it time to cut bait for owners? Is it time to buy low for the vultures?