Will Gerrit Cole ever be an Ace?
I had heard a lot of varied opinions about Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospect Gerrit Cole over the last couple years so I was glad of the chance to finally lay eyes on him live this week. It’s clear he has tremendous stuff and a talented arm. Whether Cole ever becomes the kind of pitcher who can lead the Pirates staff back to the playoffs or not remains to be seen.
The Breakdown
Cole was very much on the national radar coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in Orange, California. The Yankees drafted him with the 28th overall pick in 2008, but Cole wanted to go to college. He didn’t sign after brief negotiations with New York. Cole immediately took over Friday night duties for the UCLA Bruins as a freshman. Despite dominating stuff, Cole never really dominated college competition like scouts expected to see. The Bruins did make the finals of the College World Series in 2010, but lost to Jackie Bradley, Jr.’s South Carolina Gamecocks. Cole became a 1st round pick for the second time when he was taken first overall by Pittsburgh in 2011. The top of that 2011 Draft was loaded with talents like Danny Hultzen, Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Trevor Bauer and Anthony Rendon among others. Some talent evaluators preferred Cole’s UCLA teammate Bauer, but by no means was Pittsburgh’s choice seen as a “reach.” The Pirates gave the pitcher a then-record $8m bonus. Cole debuted as a pro in the Arizona Fall League later that year. By the end of 2012 he had climbed all the way to Triple-A Indianapolis. The performance so far is very good… but still not up to the level of Cole’s raw stuff or the expectations that come with being taken first overall.
The tall right-hander has a near ideal build for a pitcher. He’s big, long, strong and athletic. Cole possesses elite arm speed and uses it to sit at premium velocities with his fastball. When I saw him Cole worked mostly 93-96 mph with his fastball while touching higher and I didn’t get the regular high 90’s numbers I was hoping to see on my gun. It’s possible I just caught him on a bad day though, and I’ve had many reports of triple digits. The four seam has some late life and his low 90’s two seam has even more arm side run and sink when thrown low in the zone. The best secondary is a plus power slider thrown in the mid 80’s with strong late break and very tight spin. The pitch did lose shape at times and he would lose feel for it, too. He mixed in a slower 11-5 curve as a second breaking pitch but the slider is a better offering. Cole showed a very effective change up at times, but would frequently throw it too hard. All of his pitches flash plus or better but he often doesn’t stay on top of them and that causes them to flatten out.
Another factor that makes Cole more hittable than you’d assume is that he gives batters a real clean look at the ball early in his delivery. There’s not a lot of natural deception here. He does have some trouble repeating his delivery, too. His lead shoulder opens up early or late making him rush or slow down his arm and this moves his release point around. Cole is also prone to landing on a stiff front leg and thus he quite often finishes up with his delivery. Despite these issues, his overall control is not awful… but command of all his pitches can be a problem. That is to say he generally works around the strike zone but tends to miss spots and leave pitches up or in bad spots. This is a player who is athletic enough to resolve and overcome these issues, but that has been the hope for a while now. Cole also seemed easily rattled on the mound by calls that went against him. His pitchability is a work in progress and he’s not at all efficient with how he sets up hitters. Cole gets a little too fine trying to miss bats and strike out batters. This sounds like a lot of negatives… don’t miss the forest for the trees here: despite how raw his game is and his flaws, this is still one of the most talented arms in the minors.
The Path to Playing Time
The Pirates organization has actually done a pretty good job filling in their rotation this season, but one would think they would be able to find room for a pitcher with Cole’s talent. When he will be ready is a different discussion. Cole has only 180 total innings as a professional and could benefit from further time in the minors to figure things out and polish his game. Is the stuff good enough now that he could succeed in the majors? I’d say so. He could help now to some degree, but unless the team gets desperate he’s got plenty to work on in Triple-A, too.
- On 40 Man Roster: No
- Options Remaining: 3
What to Expect
You just can’t bet against stuff like this, but I do have serious concerns. This is a power arm with front line raw stuff. Cole already has the qualities of a #1 starter that you can’t teach. Now he just needs to 1) smooth out some mechanical issues (timing, lead shoulder and stiff front leg); 2) tighten up his command and control; and 3) learn how to attack hitters and sequence better.
The bottom line here is that it’s very possible these things don’t happen and Cole is never more than a #3 starter. I think you’ll find your share of talent evaluators that don’t really believe in Cole. I’ve certainly encountered some of that. At this point I’m not comfortable projecting him as an Ace off what I’ve seen and the reviews I’ve gotten from others. Personally I’m projecting Cole to perform as a #2 starter or maybe even just a high end #3. The potential is there for this pitcher to be one of the very best starters in the game, but a lot of things have to improve for it to happen. Although it would be a major disappointment, scouts have mentioned to me that he’d fit great out of the bullpen and I’ll agree with that as well.
- Mixed League Value: Strong. Cole shouldn’t have trouble missing bats. This stuff and velocity will play against big leaguers. Early in his career the results won’t match the stuff and there will be some rough starts.
- NL Only League Value: Very Strong. Same reasons as above but in a limited player pool. There is extra appeal in the fact you get more upside here than with some pitchers who might give you similar results.
- Ottoneu Value: Fairly well rounded skill set and great upside makes him a young player to target but I wouldn’t overpay right now.
JD Sussman discussed Cole recently along with Jamie Taillon as one of his top 5 pitching prospect duos.
Thanks for reading -AS
Thanks to Bill Wanless and the Pawtucket Red Sox for courtesies extended
Al Skorupa writes about baseball & baseball prospects for Bullpen Banter and Fangraphs/Rotographs. He lives in Rhode Island. He watches & videotapes a good amount of amateur and minor league baseball. You can follow him on twitter @alskor.
Something about him reminds me of Brad Penny.
brad penny, aj burnett, little yovani gallardo…
stuff is strong in a vacuum. there is more to pitching than the quality of your individual pitches.
Its the leg kick — put 20lbs around the mid-section and you’re looking at Penny
Yeah, it’s a combo of the leg motion, the shape of his rear end, his posture as he plants his foot, the socks, and the sometimes-there-sometimes-not facial hair. But the socks have a lot to do with it.
Heh. I can see it.
Stop using “late life.” It is not a real thing. It may appear to be late to the hitter’s eye, but the ball travels on the same plane the entire time. It’s physics. The only exception is a knuckleball, and that’s an exception because it doesn’t spin.
So what is a cutter?
It appears to move late, but that’s just the angle at which it is thrown.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19994
Break on a baseball also has to do with the spin of the baseball against the friction of the air. That’s why Colorado is where pitchers go to die; not only does the ball travel further due to the thin air, but the pitcher’s pitches do not break as much due to less friction between spin (i.e. curveball) and the air.
I haven’t looked at this with much detail, but this site looks like it probably explains it.
http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/aero.html
there is such thing as “late life” it directly pertains to spin rate… the more RPM a pitcher produces. the longer the ball will continue on the “fastball path” (for lack of better term) before the rotational force takes it on the bend…
I did a paper in my econometrics class where I regressed certain pitchF/X values against ERA/K:BB/GB etc… and i found that greatest diviation from the straight line wasn’t the best indicator of pitcher success, but rather a smaller value on the distance from the batter that the greatest diviation occured
essentially, pitchers who throw with less rotational force have the break develop earlier in the flight of the ball, therefore the pitch is easier to pick up as “not fastball”… pitchers who throw with more RPM, have a later breaking pitch, that while not necessarily a larger deviation from the fastball flight path, leaves the hitter with less time to react to the change in direciton which makes the pitch effective
****deviation… it’s early
and as far as “late life” on a fastball… my best guess is that because most fastball’s are thrown with backspin, and because they tend to “defy gravity” due to this back spin
a fastball with late life seems to “jump” when the rotational force takes over the initial force applied by the pitcher…
then again i’m an economist not a physicist
I don’t know anything about physics, but doesn’t “late life” just refer to “the perception of late run/tail/movement to the hitter’s eye?” Seems silly to argue if it happens or not, so long as the perception is there.
To support of Pat G:
Its not necessarily physics that impacts the “late life” discussion, but Aerodynamics. Essentially, an object moving through a fluid (air in this case) develops a boundary layer around it where there is a layer of static air next to the surface of the ball. Smooth surfaces exhibit one type of air flow pattern, laminar, and rough surfaces represent another, turbulent. Initially, at lower velocities and earlier in the flight, laminar flow results in lower drag, but because laminar flow creates a smaller boundary layer, the ball will form a drag “wake” behind it that will slow down the ball. On the flip side, because turbulent flow creates a larger boundary layer, the wake is farther behind the ball and doesn’t impact velocity as much. Because a baseball is both smooth (on the flat surfaces) and rough (the seams), spin has a significant role in the size of that boundary layer throughout the flight path and the potential for the ball to transition from a laminar flow pattern to a turbulent flow pattern, and possibly back, over the course of the pitch.
So to summarize, its entirely possible for the ball to “speed-up”, or more accurately decelerate at a much lower rate, making it appear to speed up, over the course of the pitch.
damn straight
Its very much a real thing. The ball does move late. The comment by MLB Rainmaker below explains it well. Go look at some Pitchfx and you’ll see that balls do in fact move late as their spin and seams create pull to one side. And yes, curveballs really do curve for the same reason. The effect isn’t as dramatic with a fastball but some pitchers (usually the best of them) can get their fastball to cut, sink or ride fairly close to where the ball crosses the plate.
The pitches curve (cut, slide, etc.) throughout the entire plane of the throw. Standing from 60 feet away, the ball will inevitably curve more from 40-60 as it does from 0-20 feet, but that is because the ball has already curved from 0-40 feet, thus, changing the trajectory at which the curve must be judged. At 40 feet, the ball is already on a different trajectory (due to the curving from 0-40 feet) at which it was when it leaves one hand.
Do curveballs thrown high and out of the strike zone not curve? Of course they do, if they have the same spin, but one cannot see that as well because the ball has been thrown from a different trajectory, and we don’t have camera angles from those higher (or lower) trajectories. The two links I posted above are from a U of Illinois professor who uses PITCHf/x data.
It’s impossible for a ball to be straight for 40 feet then curve the last 20. It’s impossible. I’m not arguing that it doesn’t look like that’s the case from the batter’s eye, and I will admit that the appearance of late movement is the only important thing. I just hate the phrase “late break” because taken literally, it’s not accurate.
Ok I see what you’re saying… that’s true, but for some pitchers the effect is more exaggerated as the ball approaches the plate than for others. And yes, talking about the hitter’s perception mostly. Really about where your eye thinks the ball is going and where it ends up. “Late life” is a more colorful term than it is an accurate term I suppose, but its also a pretty well established scouting term.
Al – As a slight offshoot, do you feel that Taillon is more reliably projectable to the top 1/2 of the rotation than Cole? It seems like a lot of what I’ve read lately suggests Taillon’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as Cole’s, but his floor may be higher.
Eh… I’d say Cole has the better raw stuff and they both have similar flaws right now (albeit for some different reasons). I’m actually comfortable seeing both as decent major league starters (high floor). I’d probably still give Cole the edge in terms of becoming a front end guy because he has the more complete repertoire.
anyone know the ETA of when he should arrive?
There’s some sentiment we’ll see him up this year and that wouldn’t surprise me at all. Pittsburgh is 10 games over .500 and 2 games back of first right now, so they may turn to him in the second half or if any of their starters falter or get hurt. He could certainly use more time, though. With his great stuff and bat missing ability he’s a decent stash for this year in re-drafts, but don’t expect too many innings or consistent results. If you pick your spots right or ride a hot streak I’d bet he can give you some flashes of brilliance.
Thanks – interesting article. In a relatively shallow keeper league where the waiver wire is strong enough that you are looking for the potential to deliver ace or near-ace performance within a couple of years of getting to the majors rather than the likelihood of being a solid #3, who would you rank as clearly better than Cole at this point? I’m presuming Walker and Bradley, as well as Bundy despite the injury. Anyone else?
Thank you.
Zack Wheeler and Robert Stephenson are the first two I thought of. I assume Jose Fernandez, Allen Webster and Kevin Gausman are all taken at this point. A next tier of guys might include pitchers like Danny Hultzen (always been higher on him than many), Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, Max Fried and Kyle Zimmer.
Assuming Charlie Morton is healthy and performs reasonably well, do you think it would be a good strategy to promote Cole in a month or so and let him work out of the Pirates’ bullpen during the second half. There he could get to face MLB batters, but in lower leverage situations for two innings at a time, along with spending every day with Ray Searage, AJ Burnett and Russell Martin. Cole could then compete for a position in the rotation next spring.
Do you think he could get the call with Wandy hurt? Of course we don’t know how hurt he is, but this is the second time this season.
And god forbid they attempt to use JMAC for anything but a long reliever.
He was named the starter for Tuesday’s game (6/11/13). Guess we’ll get to see his stuff in the majors sooner than we thought.
Cole is a #1. This article goes right into the waste paper basket