It’s a Good Time to Grab Dom Brown
If there is one guy I have been following relatively closely throughout this year in case I wanted to pick up a bat, it has been Domonic Brown. In his first year as a starter and his hype at an all-time low, he is available in most leagues and can be had at really any time. To me, now is the time to pick him up and give him an opportunity.
Most managers are battling injuries at this time. Hopefully you have a flexible roster and can plug in a player at really any position by moving players with multi-position eligibility around. If you haven’t hopefully you are looking for an outfielder or utility option.
So far this year, Brown has only really showed off his power – with eight home runs in just under 180 plate appearances. ZiPS has him on pace for 22 long balls, with an additional eight steals which would put him into double digits. If someone told you before the season to grab a 22 homer, 10 steal player that’s in his first full season as a major leaguer, I think you would hop on the train. I at least hope you would.
Six of Brown’s eight homers have come this month, and he just missed a homer in Miami last night – he ended up with an RBI triple. That pushed his season long wRC+ to 97, after slugging .507 this month. In April, Brown slugged just .372, so he has shown improvements as of late. Interestingly, he has not walked this month, so he appears to have had more success with the bat when he has been more aggressive. It is far too early to say if that is a true trend, and of course we want him to walk a decent amount so he is on base frequently, but many were calling for him to be more aggressive at the plate and so far that has produced some solid results.
With an ISO near .194 and a BABIP at a low .262 (he has a career .267 mark in 668 plate appearances), there are reasons to believe his power should remain near its current levels and his average should rise at least a bit. If he can get to a point, right around .260 or so, where his average doesn’t kill your fantasy team’s, then there really is not much reason to leave him on the waiver wire.
While his numbers are not entirely dissimilar to what we have seen from Brown in the past, the power improvement he has shown over the past month shows progress. His swing looks smooth and he looks like he has the confidence of a player who expects to be a MLB regular for quite some time. I am looking to pick up Brown in most leagues right now in hopes I end up with quite a steal. I think you should do the same.
Ben has been at RotoGraphs since 2012 and focuses most of his fantasy baseball attention toward dynasty and keeper leagues.
For an OBP league though, he’s yet to draw a walk in May.
He’s rostered in any decent league that’s not super shallow.
What does this bring to the conversation? He’s clearly not rostered in all of the author’s or the commenter’s leagues. Also, do you ever get tired of being so smug?
Should I target Brown or Brandon Belt?
Thanks!
I have Belt while Brown is available. I don’t see the two as very different when it comes to fantasy league value, but Belt is hotter right now. Brown may be the better long-term option though.
Having a hard time deciding between Kendrys Morales or Dom Brown in a 6×6 (OPS) league
I would target Brown.
I’m not saying that I don’t believe in Brown. Just thought it’d be useful to
add more data:
HR/FB
2010 13.3 %
2011 9.4 %
2012 9.8 %
2013 19.5 %
Brown broke his hamate bone in March 2011, which probably explains the low 2011 rate and maybe even partially or fully explains the low 2012 rate.
Thanks for the context.
So I’m guessing Brown over Chris Carter?
I would not look at his “eight steal pace” and expect that to pan out. He stole his first base in two years about a week ago and followed it up the next day with another one. You could wait around all year for a third…
Just stole another. It looks like he has a lot more confidence this month. Manuel is a big fan of his and sooner or later they’ll move him up in the batting order too, I think there’s a really good chance we’ll see him crack double digits.
He’s up to 6 so 8 seems extremely reachable.
In a 7×5 Roto that uses OPS (On base plus slugging) is it worth it pick up Dom Brown if it means dropping Ethier? Is Andre really falling off or just off to a terrible start?
Speaking of horrid starts, what are you owners doing about Brett Lawrie? (killing me slowly)
I’m no fan of Ethier, but he is probably more reliable than Brown. Also, he tends to hit higher in the lineup, a plus. That said, I drafted Brown, then dropped him to clear space (Lawrie off DL I think). But I am considering picking up Brown again, and dropping Lorenzo Cain, as a 4th OF, behind Choo, Gomez, Jennings.
One problem with Brown is that he is batting low in the order. Charlie is killing me with his blind loyalty to Howard. Maybe he will hit higher up now that Ruiz and Utley are DL and Howard is hurting.
Lawrie is killing me too. I’ve been running through various 3b. Originally Moustakas (drafted, even bigger disaster) and Gyorko. Eventually dropped both and settled on Kyle Seager. Seager isn’t winning my league, but at least he isn’t killing my team. I’m actually considering picking up Gyorko again. The thing is, Lawrie is one of my keepers, and I’m loathe to drop him. But he has been a complete waste of roster space so far. FYI, I am seriously kicking myself over deciding to keep Lawrie and drop Machado as a keeper.
Gyorko is performing near his ceiling (which is, by the way, 30hr) and continuing to make improvements, are you sure you’d rather Seager?
Thanks for the article; I’ve liked Brown this year too given his opportunity for regular playing time. I’m curious, though, how you’d compare him to someone like Matt Joyce. They have similar numbers for the season, with Joyce at 8 HR vs. 9 for Brown. Over the last 30 days, though, Joyce has been better (for fantasy), hitting over .300 and scoring more runs, while keeping pace in HR and RBI. Joyce also knows how to take a walk, and is probably a far superior option in OPS/OBP leagues (though may be way more likely to be owned too).
Joyce is only owned in 15% of Yahoo leagues (against 33% for Brown). At least worth considering if Brown’s already taken (or you’re in a league that features OBP in some way or another).
Thanks for pointing this out! I’d love to see an article on Joyce soon, his ceiling actually looks like it’s only a little lower than Brown’s. Not sure why I’ve had Brown on my roster all year but never gave Joyce more consideration.
The thing about Joyce is he’s strictly a platoon player. Look at his splits and you’ll see he rarely plays against lefties, and on the rare occasions he does, you definitely won’t want to start him. If you have a platoon partner for Joyce that you can rotate in when the Rays face a lefty, Joyce’s numbers against RHP (career .860 OPS) are fantastic.
Did anyone else pick brown up after reading this article, cause I did. 5 homers in 6 days….thanks for the advice. Picked up Niel Walker after Rutledge got sent down, timing couldn’t of been more perfect and the 2 of them are saving my week. 10 team league with Walker struggling he was still available but had my eye on him the whole year waiting for the right time to strike.
So like, pretty good call, yeah.
Wow…since you posted this article, he’s hit 9 HR in 11 games. Can you please write a similar article about Ike Davis and Rickie Weeks?