Archive for rankings

Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 First Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball.  Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed).  You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.

Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than Paul’s rotisserie ranking lists.  Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review.  If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.

In 2019, the 29 qualified first basemen averaged the following production:

• 5.88 Points Per Game (P/G)
• 30 HR
• 10% BB%
• 22% K%
• .227 ISO
• .268 AVG
• .353 OBP
• .495 SLG
• .354 wOBA
• 120 wRC+

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Masahiro Tanaka and Jeff Samardzija had perplexing, enigmatic, and ultimately bad seasons. Many attempts were made to ascribe reasons or causes for their struggles. I think both will bounce back for very simple reasons; accordingly, I think both will be undervalued in 2018 for equally simple reasons.

Masahiro Tanaka

Travis Sawchik and Eno Sarris discussed his various ailments, so to speak, long after I gave up trying to diagnose him. The heat maps are interesting, and the splits are interesting, albeit a bit of an archaism.

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Here’s the coldest take ever: Mike Trout should be the top pick in this year’s fantasy baseball drafts. Only slightly more lukewarm is the opinion that Mookie Betts should go second. That is the consensus among drafters in Yahoo, CBS and NFBC leagues, as well as among industry experts, according to the data compiled by FantasyPros. Jose Altuve is generally considered to be the best choice for the third pick, though Yahoo drafters are waiting until the sixth pick on average to snag the Astros’ second baseman.

If I wind up with the second overall pick in any of my upcoming drafts, I won’t be taking Betts, and I don’t think you should either. Betts did outearn Altuve (and everyone else) in Roto value a year ago, but if we take a closer look at how Betts got the top spot, it’s clear that he won’t be as likely to outgain either Trout or Altuve in value. If I can’t have Trout this year, then Altuve will be the next best thing.

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Previous rankings:
August
July
June
May
March/April (Preseason)

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It’s hard for me to feel like these rankings are worthwhile. Something like two-thirds of you are in your respective league’s playoffs or have already been eliminated. For those of you to whom this pertains, now we’re rolling the dice on small sample sizes — something inherently subject to volatility. Also, we’re practically a week into the month already.

So I won’t waste too much breath here. The following rankings reflect classic 5-by-5 rotisserie (“roto”) formats. Just please remember: this is your playoff hunt. If you play in a roto league, you know which categories you need to chase. I can’t answer that for you. But that category (or plural) are inherently more important to you, and you should value National League outfielders who contribute meaningfully to that category (or plural) accordingly. If you play in a points league, find power bats who minimize the split between their strikeouts and walks (assuming you are punished for the former and rewarded for the latter).

With that said, let’s dig in.

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Previous rankings:
July
June
May
March/April (Preseason)

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Last month, I asked what you all wanted from rankings. A few responded with answers I expected: rankings should reflect rest-of-season performance, informed by past performance. It seems almost silly I even asked in the first place. The reason it came up is because I think fantasy owners occasionally underestimate how impactful a month or two of extreme regression can be. It makes it especially difficult to rank someone like Marcell Ozuna circa June 1: he had a monster BABIP (batting average on balls in play) through May, and while he flashed still-legitimate power, we could reasonably expect the batting average to fall.

Like clockwork, it has. Ozuna’s BABIP by month: .281, .459, .284, .280. May was the obvious outlier in which all of Ozuna’s good fortune on balls in play was concentrated. The isolated power has, too, somewhat predictably, dipped since then. Ozuna wasn’t even a top-60 outfielder in July. Such is the nature of small samples. And yes, two months of baseball is still a fairly small sample. Joey Votto was batting only .249 through June 30. Then July happened, and now he’s batting .293 with about 20 more runs and RBI apiece (as well as a dropped foul ball).

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Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)
May
June

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To this day, I think I don’t fully understand what y’all want. With these monthly rankings, do you want end-of-season rankings or rest-of-season rankings? For the record, given we just eclipsed the halfway point of the season, end-of-season rankings would equally weight players’ first and second halves. Rest-of-season ranking, meanwhile, would unequally weight a player’s second half in favor of his first half. First-half performance informs second-half rankings, but more in the sense that “regression will hit this guy hard” and so on.

I ask because, man, y’all rip into us pretty good with these rankings sometimes. And I know I’ve failed to adequately communicate my criteria for ranking particular players a given way because I simply don’t have enough words or time.

With that said, I will provide for you here rest-of-season rankings for National League outfielders, complete with anticipated regression and all that. Tiers will be named in order of my favorite Every Time I Die albums, which is totally not obscure in any way. Enjoy! (Or not.)

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Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)
May

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The more I do this, the harder it gets. Each month I struggle with shedding my preconceived notions of a player’s value and coming to grips with the performance we have actually observed. And then there’s the additional element of teasing out what’s real and what’s not. Occasionally, there’s no change. That makes it easy. But for the guys who have made strides or taken big steps back — that makes it a bit harder. And then there’s accounting for over- and under-performance. Trying to anticipate when regression will occur, if at all, makes my head hur.

Also, there are just so many outfielders. And so many of them seem to be performing at a high level this season. It can be excruciatingly difficult to tease them apart. At a certain point, we’re splitting the microscopic hairs that grows on regular hairs. Full tiers become indecipherable blobs.

You know the rules, but if you don’t: hitters are pretty fluid within tiers. It’s not feasible to talk about every single guy, so feel free to ask questions (or leave criticisms) in the comments. (I know I left off a lot of hitters who make up the shallow side of a platoon or ride the pine. ) If I omitted a legitimate someone, let me know; unless it’s a part-time guy or a prospect, I probably just forgot. It happens from time to time.

I love Bob’s Burgers, so I’m going to name the tiers by my favorite episodes of all time. Because I can! This is off the top of my head, though, so I’ll probably screw up my own list. Oh well. Fight me!

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Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)

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For this post, I had written something entirely different, but I woke up early to change it. All of it. I didn’t dream about it — no, not quite. But I came close. This month has proven to be pretty difficult. Maybe “finicky” is the word.

So many hitters are producing at similar levels with similar peripherals to support them that it’s hard to tease them apart. I tried a full re-rank and I had clustered something like 20 or more guys together twice. I try to limit each particular tier to maybe a dozen hitters, so coming away with only three-or-so tiers was problematic. That’s why I decided to wake up early and do this over. The ranks haven’t changed much, but certain guys have moved a lot, and I will try to identify which guys are most likely to move up or down by the time the June iteration of these rankings roll around.

Also — and this is totally unrelated — I think more readers were infuriated by my omission of Tommy Pham (who has all of one plate appearance this year) than my ranking of A.J. Pollock over Bryce Harper. Y’all crack me up sometimes.

You know the drill: I rank National League outfielders, you yell at me in the comments. Consider all rankings fluid within tiers but not between them (except at the top and bottom of each tier, perhaps). Normally, I would tell you that players should be reserved to their respective tiers, but I think there’s much more opportunity for movement here than ever before (ever before, in the context of me doing this since the beginning of last year). Lastly, if I omit a name, politely let me know in the comments.

Unless it’s Tommy Pham. Then shhhhhhhhhh.

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You can’t please everyone. Not that being a fantasy baseball analyst is like being the president, but being a fantasy baseball analyst is like being the president. You can never make everyone happy, and Eno Sarris occasionally asks you for foreign policy recommendations. Worse, the people who are happy don’t vocalize their contentment while the people who are pissed are more than happy to let you know. Such is the nature of the beast.

It’s all good, though. This is my second year ranking National League outfielders, and you know what? I’m ready. My skin is a little thicker, my stomach a little rounder. It’s a new year, new me. Put it on a shirt!

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