NL Outfield Rankings: September
Previous rankings:
August
July
June
May
March/April (Preseason)
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It’s hard for me to feel like these rankings are worthwhile. Something like two-thirds of you are in your respective league’s playoffs or have already been eliminated. For those of you to whom this pertains, now we’re rolling the dice on small sample sizes — something inherently subject to volatility. Also, we’re practically a week into the month already.
So I won’t waste too much breath here. The following rankings reflect classic 5-by-5 rotisserie (“roto”) formats. Just please remember: this is your playoff hunt. If you play in a roto league, you know which categories you need to chase. I can’t answer that for you. But that category (or plural) are inherently more important to you, and you should value National League outfielders who contribute meaningfully to that category (or plural) accordingly. If you play in a points league, find power bats who minimize the split between their strikeouts and walks (assuming you are punished for the former and rewarded for the latter).
With that said, let’s dig in.
Tier 1: The Elite
Kris Bryant
Starling Marte
Hernan Perez
Charlie Blackmon
Ryan Braun
Billy Hamilton (inj.)
Wil Myers
Bryce Harper
Perez continues to replicate Marte’s production with more power, and while Perez is almost certainly an inferior ballplayer, most fantasy baseball leagues don’t give a damn about the finer points of sabermetrics. Flog me if you must. Or, you can blame Harper for being bad, and Stanton and Hamilton for getting injured. But, honestly, Stanton hasn’t ben good enough to justify a top-3 slot anyway.
Oh, and other problems: Hamilton suffered an oblique injury that will derail him for at least a week but possibly the rest of the season. Billy Hams could not possibly be any more valuable — during a season in which home runs and stolen bases are trending in opposite directions in terms of recent history, Hamilton is on pace to steal the 5th-most (or 6th-most) stolen bases in a second half ever. The relative scarcity of stolen bases and Hamilton’s incredible pace made him an absoute juggernaut.
I think I have to rank Harper at the bottom of the top tier for reasons of posterity, pride, shame, etc., but I admittedly would demote him perhaps dozens of spots to roughly Andrew McCutchen territory if the 2015 season never happened.
Tier 2a: Speed, Etc.
A.J. Pollock was drafted as high as 4th overall prior to his spring training injury. Treat him accordingly. (edited 1:19 pm EDT)
Gregory Polanco
Stephen Piscotty
Christian Yelich
Trea Turner
Eduardo Nunez
Travis Jankowski
Keon Broxton
I’ll remind you in every tier: stolen bases are scarcer than ever relative to home runs. Eighty-five hitters have hit at least 20 home runs apiece and will could very well threaten the 100-hitter mark, only cracked twice (in 1999 and 2000) since the dawn of fantasy baseball in 1988. Meanwhile, only 20 players have stolen at least 20 bases, and there’s a high probability 2016 will produce the fewest 20-SB guys outside of the 2003-’05 seasons.
In other words, power is very easily found; reliable speed, not so much. Again, your value of speedsters depends on your needs. But, scarcity. Supply and demand. Whatever. Just take heed.
Turner will slow down, but this is him in a nutshell: below-average hit tool, plus-plus speed, a little bit of power. Six home runs through 213 plate appearances is already more than anyone expected, so consider it gravy. As for the batting average: be wary. The .403 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will not float, and his plate discipline is currently Matt Kemp-ugly.
Nunez has slowed down quite a bit but he’s running enough to still be plenty worthwhile, kind of like a Marte Lite. Jankowski is, mmmmmm, Turner Lite, but with much less alarming plate discipline.
I reviewed Broxton here; he’s running up numbers akin to Chris Davis, Chris Carter and Khris Davis, but he’s running at the same time. Unfortunately, players like him with his most unusual skill set succeed very, very infrequently. But if there’s anyone on whom you want to play BABIP roulette in order to accrue 20 home runs and stolen bases combined, Broxton is your guy. His slot here is incredibly bullish but reflects the desperate, wild-card nature of his value and skill set. As for 2017… I’m sure we’ll revisit that in the offseason.
Tier 2b: Power
Giancarlo Stanton is back? As a pinch hitter, for the time being? I’m actually kind of nervous about that. It seems like they rushed him back. Proceed with caution here. (edited 7:28 pm EDT)
Yoenis Cespedes
Matt Kemp
Yasmany Tomas
Jay Bruce
Marcell Ozuna
Carlos Gonzalez
Adam Duvall
Curtis Granderson
Jayson Werth
It is what it is.
Tier 3: The Rising and the Beleaguered
Andrew McCutchen
Alex Dickerson
Hunter Pence
Odubel Herrera
Angel Pagan
Denard Span
Mallex Smith (DL60)
Chris Owings
Ben Zobrist
Ender Inciarte
Nick Markakis
Dexter Fowler
Michael Bourn is on the Orioles, I guess (edited 1:19 pm EDT)
Gerardo Parra
I’m super high on Dickerson. The plus minor league plate discipline has translated almost seamlessly, and he hits the ball hard. He might run a below-average BABIP, but he should contribute meaningfully to all five categories. Twenty homers, 10 steals, .275? Maybe the slight under on all, given he’ll be entering his age-27 season in 2017, but wouldn’t you be pretty jazzed about that in a deep league? He might even provide mixed-league value.
Herrera, Pagan, Span, Zobrist — they’re plate discipline specialists providing your batting average value with modest contributions to power and speed. I personally think they deserve a bump, but if I ranked them higher than the pure power hitters, people would flip. (Not saying that I would, but in the same tier — yeah, there might be issues.)
Smith should be back soon. He and Owings will provide cheap speed. Bourn trails them.
If you guessed Inciarte ranks second only to Bryant in WAR for the second half among NL outfielders, give yourself a pat on the back. It’s all riding the coattails of a .411 BABIP and some solid defense, so let’s not get too excited. He belongs in the same discussion as Herrera et al. above. Throw Markakis on that list as well.
Fowler and Parra provide five-category production, so to speak, but it’s modest in all regards. Both had something of a renaissance last year, but having endured injuries this season, both have yet to replicate those performances. I might be a little too low on them, but at this point, they’re not just not dynamic enough to carry you across the finish line in your league. I think I’d rather settle for someone who contributes meaningfully to four (or even three or two) categories than modestly to four or five.
One last time: value is relative to your needs at this point. Be smart.
Tier 4: Part-Timers, Mostly
Brandon Moss
David Dahl
Aaron Altherr
Joc Pederson
Willson Contreras
Scott Schebler
Randal Grichuk
Michael Conforto
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Howie Kendrick
Tommy Pham
Kolten Wong
Moss, Pederson, Schebler, Grichuk, Conforto, Niewenuis, Pham — they’re all great sources of power for platoon bats. I really like what Schebler is doing so far. Despite being a kinda-old non-prospect, he flashed tools in Dodgers’ farm system in 2014-’15. He’s finally making good on them, smacking home runs with admirable, albeit not great, plate discipline. If the trend continues in September, it would alarm me if Schebler wasn’t in the Reds’ starting lineup come March 2017. They could certainly do worse (and will probably try to).
A note on Dahl: he’s running a .417 BABIP yet is only batting 18 percent better than league-average (118 wRC+). That should tell you how empty his power-speed combination will be once the regression hits. I’m guessing he’ll be overrated come draft day next season. The speed helps, but he’s a lot like the cyclically-demoted Grichuk and Conforto who by no coincidence occupy this same tier. “Coors Field!” Sure, yeah. Tiny boost. But it’s not the cure-all antidote.
Altherr is fun, dudes. Keep an eye on him. I’m telling you, he would have been on many a bold prediction list had he not gotten injured in the spring.
Tier 5: Less-Promising Part-Timers
Jorge Soler
Yasiel Puig
Domingo Santana
Josh Reddick
Michael Taylor
Jason Heyward
Jeff Francoeur
Peter Bourjos
Alejandro de Aza
Brandon Drury
Ichiro Suzuki
Ben Revere
It’s incredible that Heyward has been relegated to even most-time duty. There’s just not much hope for salvage this season. If you’re still holding on to him, you’re probably not contending, honestly.
Santana is interesting, but, eh. I mean, these guys could all be interesting if you’re desperate enough.
Disabled List
Giancarlo Stanton (DL15): According to the Miami Herald, the soonest Stanton would return is the last week of the season, making him essentially useless. You can drop him if you really need to and not think twice.
Matt Holliday (DL15): Hoping to return sometime in mid-to-late-September. OK to drop him as well.
Trayce Thompson (DL15): His chances of returning this season are dim. OK to drop.
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I’m running on fumes. Good luck all in your playoff pursuits. If I forgot anyone, let me know in the comments. I hope I didn’t miss any August trades. Don’t want to look like a ding dong, you know?
Bourn was traded to the Orioles in a move so boring that even as a DBacks fan I didn’t realize it for a few games.
Hahaha. Thanks for the heads up.
AJ Pollock?
Must be an oversight. Tier 2a?
Ahhhhh!! At least 2a. I think I’d even put him in Tier 1 from the get-go. Gotta remember he was pretty much a consensus 1st/2nd-round pick before he got injured.
I’ll trade you Hernan Perez for Bryce Harper…
Dynasty/keeper is another story, but in a redraft league, I’d take that and might not even think twice.
Apparently someone hasn’t learned that he should trust the projections. Out of curiosity when do you decide to apply small sample nonsense? Perez is an elite OF, while Myers who has sucked for over a month also is? Is this just a case of chasing hot streaks that we know don’t exist in a predictive fashion?
I… don’t really know what you’re trying to say. Are you agreeing that Perez is elite, and claiming that Myers sucks? Or are you dismissing Perez as elite because of “small sample nonsense”? Myers has the more favorable ROS projection than Perez — which is what you seem to suggest I follow — yet he looked completely lost in August — which also is something you touched upon. So this all seems contradictory. I honestly just don’t understand your point. Sorry. But if you clarify, I’ll gladly revisit.
Why is Puig so far down? Is it just the part-time status? He crushed AAA and has had two good games back. I’d roll the dice with 15 starts from Puig over anyone in Tier 4 or below. Am I the only one?
He deserves Tier 4 if he can produce consistently, but no higher. Reports indicate he’ll be the LHP-half of a platoon, which likely leaves him on the short end of reps, so he really shouldn’t be any higher than Brandon Moss. But, again — to each his/her own.
I like Hernan Perez. He had a good August with a mess of steals and a meager 98 wRC+. He does not belong where you put him. Thanks
He has a 106 wRC+ in the second half with elevated FB%, Pull%, Hard% rates to validate the mess of power that coincided with the mess of steals. And he doesn’t walk, so he’ll be punished in terms of wRC+. Classic formats don’t use OBP. If you use OBP/OPS then obviously he’s a liability, but I make that disclaimer up front. Lack of walks doesn’t really matter except for fewer runs.
Those are all great arguments to have him in the second or third tier with players of similar production. Not rubbing asses with Kris Bryant and Starling Marte. My dude has been doing this for a month and you’re acting like the conductor of the hype train. It’s highly irresponsible.
If you’re going to bring up similar production, Perez’s production is IDENTICAL to Marte’s on a rate basis this season. I have discussed this previously. He’s Marte without HBPs and elite BABIP skills but more power. So, yes, he should be rubbing asses with Marte, as far as I’m concerned.
You also said “Yelich will barely scrape 10 home runs” so I’ll pray for you.
Since 2002 (when BIS started producing batted ball data), only 30 qualified hitters (out of 2,285, so 1.3% of hitters) hit fewer than 20% fly balls over a full season, prior to Yelich. Only four of them (13.3%) hit 10+ home runs. Sorry I played the odds, big guy.
Also, “performance over a sample” — all performance is over a sample until a player’s career ends.
Yelich also debuted as a 21 year old in a pitchers’ park and has yet to hit worse than well above average. You were banking on a well-regarded talent to not develop power as he grew into his prime? He’ll break 20 this year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him surpass 25 in his age-25 season next year. And I’d take him over Hernan Perez fsho.
I’m actually willing to bet that, barring a substantial change to his swing, Yelich hits no more than 12 home runs next season, 13 if he bats leadoff.
Ugh not gonna be able to find this in a year. Thanks.
Alright. I giggled out-loud at a fantasy baseball opinion being called “highly irresponsible”.
Why on earth would you use wRC+ (or any + stat) for fantasy analysis? There are no leagues I know of that correct stats for park factors.
It’s a one-stop shop for performance over a sample. See, Jackie T., in this case Perez has been a slightly below-average hitter in the most recent month.
Perez on ESPN player rater, last 30 days: 32
Last 15: 23
Just to be fair, last 7: 71
As others have pointed out, your argument seems much better suited to real life talent, not fantasy baseball value. Lots of players are significantly better fantasy assets than they are MLB assets.
What Dave said. When I featured Perez a couple of weeks ago, I made very clear that Perez actually isn’t a very good hitter. Just like Billy Hamilton is an awful hitter. But for fantasy purposes, especially in classic formats, they’re excellent options.
Hamilton since July 20th – 288/366/333 with 31 SB in 40 games (38 starts). He’s raised his GB% and LD% & boosted his walk rate this year just a bit and it seems to finally be paying off. Sure the power has gone to zero but a BIlly Hamilton who gets on base at a .366 clip is extremely valuable in both real baseball and fantasy baseball.
Another big night for Perez, and just like that he goes #12/
#19/#14 on the ESPN player rater over his last 30/15/7 games, respectively. Seems like an elite fantasy option to me.
I get the Hernan Perez thing, but he’s hitting .260, and doesn’t actually play everyday. He’s a super useful player, and the power spike looks legitimate-ish, but even taking his stats at face value, a .260ish batting average, it’s hard to put him in the same tier as Marte.
But I’m not here to pile on about Perez. I agree with the point that he’s very useful. What I want to flag is that Trea Turner looks *underrated* if you’re going to give Perez that ranking. He runs more than Perez, makes contact about as much, walks about as little, has shown similar HR-power, but 1) plays everyday atop a very good lineup; and 2) makes hard contact at nearly a 40% clip, so that BABIP isn’t going to fall all that far (.360 Steamer projection, I project a .347 using regressed components). That means a better batting average, more times on base to steal bases, etc…
I don’t see a case for Hernan Perez to be ranked ahead of Trea Turner.
I like both of these points and I could see that. I’m really afraid of a BABIP crash, but the hard-hit rate and speed does support him being the kind of guy who paces the league for years to come. But few hitters consistently hit the ball hard 40% of the time across a full season, and they are typically the league’s prolific sluggers — something which Turner does not profile to be. So the Hard% will fall, and the BABIP will fall… Counter-point to myself: Jonathan Villar is still running a .396 BABIP into September. Those guys are actually really similar.
Now I’m just thinking out loud. But I’m willing to concede the point. I actually had him right below Harper for a hot second. I guess I’ll take that to my grave.
not sure why you’re down on Turner’s hit tool. i thought kiley had him pegged as something like a a 50 current value, 60 future value there.
Turner’s career BABIP is .391 which doesn’t sound like a below-average hit tool to me.
It’s the 20.2% K to 2.8% BB that’s a concern. I think these are old grades, but on his page, it says 20 current, 50 future from Kiley. Farnsworth gave him 50/55/60 (which is something I had overlooked in his prospects post).
So, I’m only down on him until he shows better plate discipline. It’s just a preference of mine in terms of mitigating bust rates. But Starling Marte does this, too (this being not-great plate discipline), and he’s doing quite alright for himself. In other words, there’s no saying Turner has to make a change in order to not bust, as you are suggesting (and about which you could be right).
20%k rate is super concerning for a rookie that has elite hard hit skills as a rookie and swiping bases at an elite clip??? Im sure the walks will go with more experience, but if this is the baseline, then id happily take him off your hands for my wil myers. You could even throw in joe ross
OK, then let’s get him more experience. The K’s aren’t a concern until the BBs come into view. If his BABIP regresses 60 points (which is still .347 and, thus, very good), his OBP will drop to well-below-average.
Since when is Moss a part-timer again? He’s deservedly been getting full-time at bats since returning from the DL in late July, and Adams’s recent activation isn’t going to change that. He’ll probably lose a little playing time once/if Holliday comes back, but he’ll still be in there most of the time at either 1B or CO the rest of the way.
That’s more an oversight on my part than anything. Kind of ballparking it real quick, but I think with full-time ABs I’d put him above Granderson at least.
Your ranking of Trea is a little confusing, considering how much you talked about stolen base scarcity while he’s picked up 20 out of 23 attempts in 48 games. Sure that’ll cool down when he drops down to earth, but that’s still crazy valuable. Not to mention the six triples, which shows he has the speed to leg out infield hits and prop up that BABIP. Why work counts and try to draw walks on borderline pitches when every time he puts solid contact on the ball he’s a threat?
From my limited experience watching Turner, he doesn’t really have much of a weakness in his swing. And by and large he has been challenged by major league pitchers that either see his age or his stature and refuse to walk him. I think you’ll see the BB% raise and the K% lower as he gets more time and a reputation in the majors.
This was the name you were most wrong about on a mostly good list. He should be in Hernan’s spot.
Billy hamilton is not better than trea turner. Not sure he’s better than jose peraza. Yelich Wont hit 12 hr’s next yr?! Ha…side bet? And dahl is all the way at the bottom? He’ll hit for high babip, still on pace for over 20/20 over a full season as a rookie… Comparing to comforto and in a teir with Nieuwenhuis?! You think nick markakis is good? this is insanity
This is fantasy baseball. Literally any hitter is “better” than Billy Hamilton in real-life baseball. Dahl could be bumped up given he’s seeing more reps than the part-time guys with which I grouped him. Why will he hit for a high BABIP? Conforto is in a tier with Nieuwenuis because Conforto is in a platoon. He’s playing part time. OF COURSE he’s better than Nieuwenhuis; this is indisputable. Neither should be owned in leagues of, like, 14 teams or fewer, so why are we even bothering to split hairs here? It’s literally just one big tier of part-time hitters. WHEN DID I SAY NICK MARKAKIS IS GOOD? WHAT THE HELL IS HAPPENING??? He’s only higher than other more-talented guys because at least he sees consistent reps. He will probably get twice as many PAs as Conforto from here on out, and that’s incredibly important.
Wil Myers in TIER 1 is hilarious.
Month-by-month SPLITS
Mar/Apr 128 wRC+
May 61 wRC+
Jun 210 wRC+
Jul 98 wRC+
Aug 75 wRC+
Sep 54 wRC+