NL Outfield Rankings: July
Previous rankings:
March/April (Preseason)
May
June
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To this day, I think I don’t fully understand what y’all want. With these monthly rankings, do you want end-of-season rankings or rest-of-season rankings? For the record, given we just eclipsed the halfway point of the season, end-of-season rankings would equally weight players’ first and second halves. Rest-of-season ranking, meanwhile, would unequally weight a player’s second half in favor of his first half. First-half performance informs second-half rankings, but more in the sense that “regression will hit this guy hard” and so on.
I ask because, man, y’all rip into us pretty good with these rankings sometimes. And I know I’ve failed to adequately communicate my criteria for ranking particular players a given way because I simply don’t have enough words or time.
With that said, I will provide for you here rest-of-season rankings for National League outfielders, complete with anticipated regression and all that. Tiers will be named in order of my favorite Every Time I Die albums, which is totally not obscure in any way. Enjoy! (Or not.)
Tier 1: Hot Damn!
Bryce Harper
Kris Bryant
Wil Myers
Melvin Upton Jr.
Starling Marte
I think we have to give Harper the benefit of the doubt for occasionally being human. Bryant is a juggernaut clearly capable of making adjustments and is currently hitting at the heart of an equally juggernauty (jugger-naughty?) lineup.
Myers has finally become everything we ever thought he might be, even after worrisome injuries, especially to his wrist. He’s hitting for immense power, and while he likely won’t sustain it, he’ll finish with 30 home runs with maybe 25 stolen bases with a solid batting average. That’s huge.
Upton will certainly be the contentious name here. But you can no longer deny what’s happening: he’s hitting for legitimate (if not somewhat modest) power, but he’s also running so much that he could hit for zero power and zero average and still be Billy Hamilton, who is still owned in all standard leagues, as far as I can tell. Even if his batting average falls apart and he becomes vintage B.J., the 30-plus stolen bases are, similarly, huge.
I wrote about Marte yesterday. His power spike last year was insincere, and I’m gravely concerned about a .400 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that will certainly slip in the second half.
Tier 2: From Parts Unknown
Giancarlo Stanton
Gregory Polanco
Charlie Blackmon
Odubel Herrera
Ryan Braun
Yoenis Cespedes
Adam Duvall
Jay Bruce
Carlos Gonzalez
Marcell Ozuna
Matt Kemp
If I’m treating Duvall like a top-25 outfielder, I have to give Stanton the benefit of the doubt much like I’ve done for Harper. Truth of the matter is Stanton is not so far different from Chris Davis or even Chris Carter: the power is prodigious, but the batting average rollercoaster hurts. I maintain we have overestimated Stanton (although not grossly) for some time now. It’s perfectly reasonable that Duvall joins this Stanton-Davis-Carter trio and, now that he dominates left field reps, will be a legitimate power threat, if not a similarly frustrating one, for the foreseeable future.
It’s good to see Blackmon back, although the lack of stolen bases hurt. I’m finally giving Ozuna and CarGo the love they maybe deserve, although I won’t be surprised if some will still think they are ranked too low. To be clear, I’m still very concerned with both of their elevated BABIPs. They’re great hitters, and you could ride them out through September if you wanted to. But they’re also decent sell-high candidates considering you’ll likely get a substantial return for either of them.
Also, Odubel Herrera. He’s probably ranked a little too high because of the deficiency in counting stats, but I’m a sucker for how well he does everything else.
Tier 3: Ex-Lives
Stephen Piscotty
Andrew McCutchen
Josh Harrison
Matt Holliday
Trayce Thompson
Willson Contreras
Curtis Granderson
Billy Hamilton
Ben Revere
Christian Yelich
You may notice an incredibly bullish Willson Contreras ranking. I have basically ranked him at his ceiling, which is unrealistic. And that ceiling accounts for Joe Maddon still giving Contreras ample playing time even after Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler return from disabled list — something that’s far from a guarantee. Still, he has great pop. That’s what everyone sees now. It’s actually the plate discipline that entices me, however; Contreras should have no problem establishing himself as a regular once his cup of tea turns into, uh, a bottle of gin, or something. That’s how that saying goes, yeah? Anyway, he reminds me of Jonathan Lucroy, and Jonathan Lucroy is a hell of a catcher.
You may also notice an incredibly bearish Andrew McCutchen ranking. I anticipated back before the 2015 season that we’d see the inevitable demise of his baserunning proficiency. That his plate discipline and batted ball profile have declined so much incite a great deal of worry in me. Everything is trending in the wrong direction for a guy approaching the wrong side of 30. I would love for Cutch to prove me wrong, but there’s now a light at the end of the tunnel of this excellent career. He’s still a must-start in all formats, but he’s not an elite bat anymore and is now merely the third-best option in his own outfield (which actually says more about the Pittsburgh Pirates’ outfield than anything else).
Tier 4: New Junk Aesthetic
Yasmany Tomas
Jayson Werth
Yasiel Puig
Denard Span
Jason Heyward
Ender Inciarte
Howie Kendrick
Brandon Drury
Derek Dietrich
Some good bats with more modest talents and/or a little less playing time. Coming out of Cuba, Tomas looked like the kind of bat who would flounder at the Major League level, especially when compared to the talent of his contemporaries. To his credit, he has done an excellent job of transforming as a hitter, and he has made a much smoother transition than I could have ever anticipated.
I ranked Heyward fairly low last month, and I’m doing it again. (I also favored Upton over Heyward here a couple of weeks ago.) Nothing has changed. He’s an utter mess at the plate — borderline unstartable, even despite hitting second for baseball’s most potent lineup. I guess that warrants moving him down a bit, but he can’t go down much farther than he already is for a guy with a guaranteed starting gig. Everyone else who follows mainly falls into part-time duty.
Puig arguably has the most upside here, but until he actually taps into it and proves he can stay healthy, he’s resigned to the Heyward treatment. He may deserve a bit better of a ranking, but I’m trying to prevent you from being enamored by the name brand. But you’re probably way ahead of me already.
Tier 5: Last Night in Town
Randal Grichuk
Albert Almora
Angel Pagan
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Peter Bourjos
Ichiro Suzuki
Matt Joyce
Brandon Nimmo
Mac Williamson
Mostly dudes on part-time duty or recently called up from the minors. Grichuk is here only as long as it keeps Moss out, probably. Grichuk really isn’t bad, but the Cardinals had no patience with enduring his BABIP growing pains. For Almora, same as Grichuk but Almora regarding Fowler and Soler. Modest power and speed but good contact skills. Should stick quickly, but might be slow to blossom elsewhere. Less true for Nimmo. Williamson flashes power (although it has tapered off significantly since his 2013 stint at High-A ball) but also has considerable holes in his swing and approach.
The Big Dirty
Disabled List
Tiered ranks upon return.
Chris Owings (mid-July): Tier 4. Modest speed and mostly guaranteed playing time.
Dexter Fowler (late July): Tier 2.
Brandon Moss (late July?): Tier 3. Vintage Moss power with vintage Moss platoon issues.
Joc Pederson (late July): Tier 3. Well, kind of like Moss.
David Peralta (late July): Tier 4. Really has to prove something.
Jorge Soler (late July): Tier 5. Same, on part-time duty.
Gerardo Parra (early August): Tier 3/4. Really hadn’t done much after his hot start.
Jon Jay (early August): Tier 4. Empty batting average.
Hunter Pence (mid-August): Tier 2.
Domingo Santana (mid-August?): Tier 5. Growing pains.
Mallex Smith (late August): Tier 3. Highly underrated speed with decent power; a bit of a Delino DeShields flavor, but we know how he turned out this year.
Minors
Tiered ranks upon return and assuming full playing time.
Michael Conforto (AAA): Tier 3. Great skills with BABIP pains.
Peter O’Brien (AAA): Tier 4. Huge power, but needs to prove he can hang.
Michael Taylor (AAA): Tier 4. Power and speed, but miserably bad batting average.
Jeremy Hazelbaker (AAA): Tier 5. Largely a flash in the pan.
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Happens almost every time: let me know if I forgot someone. It wasn’t a deliberate omission, I promise you.
I demand whichever version you don’t do! Rabble Rabble Rabble!
What do I want? I want all these rankings updates to be unseparated by league. The vast majority of us play in mixed leagues, and I’ve never understand what providing rankings for “A.L. this” or N.L. that” achieves.
This is above my pay grade, but it certainly makes my job more difficult, so I wouldn’t mind doing away with it either.
While we’re at it:
What’s with the “Positional Rankings” in the right side bar still linking to pre-season ranks? Are they relevant? Someone still uses those this deep in the season?
Meanwhile finding the latest monthly position rankings like this one requires a arduous search.
Here here. I glance at these, mostly for the commentary, but the rankings themselves are somewhat worthless because I do not play in any AL- or NL-Only leagues, nor do I know of anybody who does (other than people in comments on here).
It’s a lot easier for NL- or AL-only leaguers to just ignore players from the opposite league on the list than it is for the rest (majority) or us to mentally try and combine the two lists somehow.
I try not to do this and I don’t mean to be short but I can’t continue to read this list when Melvin is in the same tier as Harper and Bryant. For a more concrete reference point, what $ value would you give each assuming a $260 budget?
I think your valuation of Upton is highly dependent on format. He’d get docked in OBP leagues. As would Matt Kemp and so on. But I think we have to be realistic about the possibility of a 20-30 season. Only A.J. Pollock achieved it last year for outfielders; Marte, Blackmon, and Cain came damn close. All were drafted in the top 50 overall this year per NFBC ADP. That’s roughly a floor price of $18-$20.
But you’re correct in that I should break apart that top tier. Harper should probably have his own tier ($40?), and then maybe Bryant could have his own tier, too ($35?). Then you get to everyone else. While I typically say that there’s some fluidity within tiers, I think the elite outfielders are absolute. There’s a steep drop-off after Bryant that I failed to properly articulate.
I also probably wouldn’t value Upton this highly outside of a redraft league. If we’re talking keeper or dynasty… I honestly have no idea what to do with him. I mean, he’s still valuable, but he’s much more valuable to a contending team in “win now” mode. We also see these kinds of one-year performance spikes only for players to more closely resemble their typical selves the next year. No guarantee Upton even sniffs this production in 2017.
TL;DR: You’re right, in that Upton is not an equivalent talent to Harper or Bryant; Tier 1 is a lazy conglomeration. But he’s good this year. See above for rough prices.
No Pokey Reese? Sheesh
Prob the only person who loves the ETID rankings, though having the Big Dirty that low is ridiculous and leaving off gutter phenoman is as well. But its every time i die on fangraphs so Im not complaining!
Something had to get left off! I think Gutter lacks creativity. Big Dirty is a little slow for me. Both have their fair share of jams, of course. ETID can really do no wrong.
I’m pretty weak at OF, so I picked Pollock up a week or two ago and have stashed him in the only DL slot I have (could also put Darvish there). It’s a deep weekly league with a season limit on transactions, so it’s not like I’m missing out on a ton of possible daily production, but do you think I should cut bait on him completely or just ride it out?
All of the players in the first three tiers are owned in my league, and the only unowned players in Tier 4 and 5 who I think might be worth owning are Inciarte and maybe Drury. Would you free up that DL slot and run either of those guys as a 5th OF? Or just sit tight with Merrifield as a 5th OF until Pollock comes back?
I think there’s a solid chance Pollock doesn’t play this season. It seems like he’s ahead of schedule, but I’m not holding out hope.
Merrifield is OK but not great. I’d rather have Inciarte. Another commenter mentioned Cody Asche — I’d rather roll with him as well.
Nice, always happy to see an ETID fan. Didn’t like The Big Dirty?
Listening to We’rewolf at this exact moment. ETID can do no wrong, but TBD is a bit sluggish for me. Some true jams, though. “No Son of Mine” is one of my all-time favorites.
Definitely two of my favorites off TBD – always loved Leatherneck too.
Cody Asche? He has had a pretty good month since coming off the DL.
That’s a good one. I expected to see ugly peripherals but it all looks great. Just have to find out now if they’re legit or small-sample mirages. I’m cautious, but I’d put him in Tier 4 with a chance to keep moving up if he can sustain his gains.
Glad to see Hot Damn! atop the list. People get all excited about Ex Lives and From Parts Unknown because they are the most recent (and also awesome). But Hot Damn! is a masterpiece on its own level.
Next time, you should go even more obscure and rank according to scenes from Shit Happens.
Off the top of my head… the “mayonnaise” dialogue followed by “he took my joke and he made it funnier,” or however that sequence went. DYING first time I saw it.
Isn’t Kolten Wong elgible in the outfield now? Where do you rank him, particularly now that Carpenter went down with an oblique strain tonight?
Oh, that’s right! His production has been anemic, but if he channel some vintage Wong and pull off a 10-15-.250 pace for the rest of the season, it makes him Tier 3 material. Until then, he’s in Tier 4 at best.
“To this day, I think I don’t fully understand what y’all want.”
I think ROS rankings are the only things that really matter, right? I mean, who cares if thus-and-so was the 15th ranked OF in April, 8th in May, and 28th in June. Will he help me from this moment forward, and if so, how much? Or will he help from this point forward more than players B and C?
(Similarly, projected end-of-season rankings are going to incorporate 80 games that have already happened that I don’t really care about right at this moment, so they’re not particularly useful either.)
And sure, ROS rankings are going to be heavily informed by what has come before, obviously. But the rankings are only helpful insofar as they help me decide between players A and B today, right now.
With all that said thanks for posting, and updating these, monthly. And engaging in discussion of the rankings with the readership/commentariat in the comments.
Nick Markakis?