Jose Altuve Should Be the Second Overall Pick

Here’s the coldest take ever: Mike Trout should be the top pick in this year’s fantasy baseball drafts. Only slightly more lukewarm is the opinion that Mookie Betts should go second. That is the consensus among drafters in Yahoo, CBS and NFBC leagues, as well as among industry experts, according to the data compiled by FantasyPros. Jose Altuve is generally considered to be the best choice for the third pick, though Yahoo drafters are waiting until the sixth pick on average to snag the Astros’ second baseman.

If I wind up with the second overall pick in any of my upcoming drafts, I won’t be taking Betts, and I don’t think you should either. Betts did outearn Altuve (and everyone else) in Roto value a year ago, but if we take a closer look at how Betts got the top spot, it’s clear that he won’t be as likely to outgain either Trout or Altuve in value. If I can’t have Trout this year, then Altuve will be the next best thing.

My guess is that Betts is being favored over Altuve because owners expect him to provide more home runs, RBI and runs. In each of the last two seasons, Altuve has outproduced Betts in steals and batting average, and there is no clear reason to expect Betts to overtake Altuve in either category. It’s also not a given that Betts will outscore Altuve, now that Dustin Pedroia is set to be the Red Sox’s leadoff hitter. I would give Betts the edge in RBI, as I do expect him to typically bat cleanup with Altuve hitting second or third in the order for the Astros. Even if Altuve bats third, hitting behind George Springer and Alex Bregman probably won’t provide as many RBI opportunities as hitting behind Pedroia, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts will for Betts.

I feel pretty comfortable expecting that Altuve will outperform Betts in steals, batting average and runs, and I don’t think Betts will leave him in the dust in RBI. That leaves home runs, and in 2016, Betts hit 31 of them as compared to Altuve’s 24. My hunch is that most owners view Altuve’s total as flukier than Betts’, but I see it as the opposite. The legitimacy of Altuve’s power surge is, in fact, the key to why I’d rather draft him than Betts.

On the surface, it appears that both players experienced a power spike last year. Betts’ home run total increased from 18 in 2015, and Altuve hit just 15 homers that year. In 2016, Betts required 65 percent as many at bats per home run as in 2015, and Altuve needed 63 percent as many at bats for each home run. Seems pretty even.

However, when we look at each player’s power indicators, only one seemed to grow that skill last season. Altuve increased his average flyball distance, hard contact rate and barrels-to-batted ball event ratio dramatically. Betts, on the other hand, made only modest gains in flyball distance and hard contact rate while actually declining in barrel rate.

So how did Betts wind up with seven more home runs when he made only 17 more plate appearances? I’d argue he was much luckier than Altuve was. According to the 2017 Bill James Handbook, of all balls that were hit at least 400 feet for home runs or outs, 94 percent turned into homers last season. Seven of Betts’ nine balls that went that distance were home runs, so he was “cheated” of one or two additional homers, Then again, Altuve was cheated similarly, as only 13 of his 16 drives of that distance were home runs. For those balls hit between 380 and 399 feet, 51 percent became home runs. Betts beat the odds by having 13 of 18 balls in that category become homers, so this year, he could “give back” four of those home runs (all other things being equal). Altuve had only two of 16 balls in that distance category leave the yard, so he was arguably cheated of a home run six times. In terms of flyball distance, Altuve actually profiled better as a 30-homer hitter than Betts did.

ESPN’s Home Run Tracker confirms this suspicion. They categorize 15 of Betts’ 31 home runs as having had “just enough” distance, whereas only seven of Altuve’s 24 home runs were put in that category.

If there is a case to be made for picking Betts second overall instead of Altuve, it’s that quality, reliable outfielders have become scarce. If I take Altuve at pick No. 2 in a 12-team league, I don’t have a chance to fill my first outfield slot until the 23^rd pick at the earliest. There could be an even greater urgency to fill first base at that point, since I would prefer not to deal with the post-Freddie Freeman dropoff. By the time I make my third pick at No. 26, I am probably choosing from among Springer, Starling Marte, Nelson Cruz, A.J. Pollock and Giancarlo Stanton.

Alternatively, if I take Betts second in order to lock up a top outfielder, I’m probably looking at Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Jean Segura and Rougned Odor as my top second base options. I could also take Jonathan Villar, even though he won’t qualify right away in all formats, due to having played only 11 games at second base last year. In NFBC and CBS leagues, Villar’s ADP is 20 and 27, respectively. I can’t necessarily count on getting him in the second or third round. If that’s the case, I’d rather secure Altuve and fill my outfield spot with one of the aforementioned options than have Betts and then settle for one of Cano, Dozier, et. al.

If you see the upper echelon of outfielders as being shallower than that of second basemen, I could see the merit of taking Betts second, but I think the level of scarcity is similar enough at the two positions that I just simply want the better player with the second pick. Upon closer inspection, that player is Altuve.