Archive for Ottoneu

I’m no artist, but as we enter August let me paint a picture of what I see happening in many fantasy leagues:

“My team started fast and I was optimistic in May, but since then I’ve fallen out of the race and am now looking only towards next season.”

“My league’s title chase appeared to be close in June, but just a month or so later it now looks like it’s really over – it’s a one (maybe two) horse race.”

“Our league trade deadline is still 30 days away but no one is really buying at this point.  It makes for a tough sell.”

“A lot of the owners in my league seem like they’ve checked out for the summer.  There’s just not a lot of activity from those teams lower in the standings.”

Familiar? Of course I’m using very broad brush strokes here but you get the point: it’s rare to find a fantasy league that has a hot race involving half your league’s teams in August (and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen one in September).  But this isn’t really surprising, is it? Still, if you’ve ever won a fantasy league then you know the only thing better than winning is winning a competitive fantasy league.  We all want to win among the best, don’t we? That’s what bragging rights are all about.

My original intent for this article was to debate whether or not it’s possible to legislate competitiveness within your fantasy league, but we’ll just skip to the conclusion and say “it’s not”. This fact is probably obvious to you but in 20 years of being a fantasy commissioner I can tell you I’ve tried many times to drive competition up and down the standings each season, but in the end there’s no secret sauce.  Instead, I’ve come to the conclusion that attempting to build an active league is far better than trying to manufacture a competitive one, so today I’ll leave you with a few ideas that might help increase engagement in your league, and also ask for your feedback on what else might be working for you.

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Over the past 7 days, the most added player in Ottoneu is Yulieski Gurriel. Over the past 30 days, the most added player in Ottoneu is Yulieski Gurriel. That’s a lot of Gurriel auctions! Here’s quick glance at the most added players in Ottoneu over a 7 and 30 day split:

This post is not so much about Gurriel, but rather a larger Ottoneu topic. What do you do with free agent top prospects during the season? How do you bid? (In this sense, the term prospect can be broadened to mean any player added to the player pool midseason). If you don’t see Gurriel as a pertinent example, consider the likes of Kyle Lewis, Corey Ray, Nick Senzel, Lazaritos, or any other of the recent draftees or international free agents. While the same premise should hold for any of them, Gurriel is an exaggerated example.

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As I sit watching some of the game’s best players battle between commercials in the one July game that really “counts” I’m reminded that the All-Star break is the natural rest period set aside to catch up on the baseball stats and facts that I’ve otherwise overlooked all season.  For instance:

Did you know that Ian Desmond entered the break as both a top five fantasy shortstop (#2) and top five outfielder (#5)?

Did you know that Dellin Betances has a lower xFIP (1.15) than FIP (1.20), and that if you added his xFIP to that of his lanky teammate Andrew Miller (1.09), you’d only find five other relievers in MLB with a better xFIP (one of which is also a teammate) than their combined 2.24?

Did you know there is a backstop on the Angels named Jett Bandy?

Did you know that the Diamondback’s new road gray uniform includes a snake biting a baseball on the sleeve?

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Whit Merrifield, Brandon Nimmo, Zach Davies, Steven Moya… These are 4 baseball players. Three are outfielders. One is a pitcher. All are from the United States (or a US territory in Moya’s case). I’m sure there are other common facts about these players (most of us are pretty similar). However, perhaps the most interesting commonality between these 4 players is that all have seen their Ottoneu ownership increase by 10% over the past week. Let’s look at which of these players I would actually consider owning.

Owned in nearly 50% of Ottoneu leagues, Merrifield has burst on to the scene over the past month, posting 5.47 P/G since early May with 2B and OF eligibility. However, his rest of season numbers look far less optimistic. The depth charts here have him posting 3.83 P/G and a .291 wOBA over the rest of the season. This level of production is very near replacement level at 2B. Considering how shallow MI can be, I can see the case for rostering Merrifield, however I do not see much in his skillset to inspire confidence. He appears to be a product of a .389 babip, which has provided some nice production. However, without good plate discipline or power, his production will likely subpar in FGpts leagues. He’s a replacement level player at present. If you need to fill middle infield games he could be worth a roster spot, but I wouldn’t be bidding more than $1-$3 for him in leagues without SBs. While his FGpt outlook isn’t great, Merrifield has exhibited good speed in the minors (32 SBs in AAA last year) and could provide some solid value in 5×5 leagues where owners are in need of steals.

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The summer is heating up which means the standings are starting to solidify in your league. Big trades are going down and you find yourself uncharacteristically indecisive – do I make this deal or not? Will it actually improve my team enough to matter?

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As mentioned in the past, Ottoneu is a deep but enjoyable game of fantasy baseball economics perfectly suited for the FanGraphs reader.  However, the learning curve in year one can be steep, so consider this point a primer on how “loans” work in Ottoneu leagues.

All Ottoneu teams, regardless of the format (5×5, 4×4, FGPTS, SABR) are bound by both a 40 player roster cap and a $400 salary cap applied between the annual league player auction and the end of the MLB regular season (these caps do not apply in the off-season).  Exceeding either of these caps will result in a “frozen” roster thereby preventing the owner from bidding on players, making trades, or even setting lineups until the issue is resolved, per Rule 1b.  In other words, your only option when faced with an illegal (“over-cap”) roster is to cut players until you get to 40 or fewer players or $400 or less in total salary.  For new Ottoneu players, keep in mind you should never willingly exceed these limits (per Rule 1c), and each of your 40 roster spots inherently costs $1 each, so you really only have $360 in “free” roster salary to play with (see Rule 1bi) at any given time (including during the annual auction).

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I’ll pick up on the prospect theme that Justin and Tom touched on in this week’s podcast: helium watch.  In other words, here are a four somewhat under the radar prospects that have caught my eye this year that could have increasing value over the second half of the season and turn into real assets in the near future in Ottoneu (and other deep leagues).

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Entering the 2014 season I knew my fantasy team was setup to succeed.  After all, I had just spent the entire 2013 season tearing it down and building it back up again, so I had the benefit of a full year of preparation, collecting as many assets as I could along the way to ready myself up for another shot at the title.

Unsurprisingly, at least three other teams in my league also appeared to be possible front-runners, so I knew it was going to be a hard fought battle towards the top.  My roster looked great on paper, but what I really needed was an edge, a small but real advantage that would work in my favor and help me outlast some very savvy Ottoneu owners.  So, I decided I would be obsessive about daily roster management…and I built a spreadsheet to help me track my team’s performance (by player) over the course of 180 days of baseball.  If I was going to win a tight race, I would need more than just excellent players.  I needed to know that I was effectively managing those players, too.

I ended up winning the championship in 2014 and owe a ton of credit to the daily roster tool I built to help me track it.  You can view the tool here.  I’m doing the same thing this year, so here are four roster management lessons I’ve learned that might be helpful for anyone playing daily fantasy baseball.

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I have made a lot of trades in my fantasy baseball “career”.  It’s one of the parts of the game I enjoy most, but I’ve learned over the years that there is a wide range of comfort among owners when it comes to shaking up their rosters via trade.  For some fantasy owners, the process and preparation required to put together a good trade is a burden, and for others the uncertainty of the resulting impact (“will this really help my team?”) and/or the feedback from their league (“did I win or lose this trade?”) is enough to cause anxiety.

Part of the reason I enjoy fantasy trades is because I’ve had the benefit of corporate negotiation training throughout my professional career.  While it’s certainly true that my fantasy baseball experience has had a positive impact on my professional bargaining skills, there is no doubt my vocational training has made me more confident (and successful) in the fantasy “trade room”, too.  Today I’ll share a little of what I’ve learned throughout my own trade history in hopes of offering something you can use as well.

How to Talk Trade

All too often it’s not necessarily what you say but how you say it that makes the difference.  What follows are some alternative ways to phrase common trade responses that might make the difference between closing a deal or stopping one early in it’s tracks.

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One of the useful things about Ottoneu is its integration with the Fangraphs leaderboards.  I’m on the leaderboards here constantly as is, so the ability to use them, while having data specific to a fantasy league is an added bonus of the format. One of the filter’s I find myself using often on the leaderboards is the “Last 14 Day” filter. This is admittedly a smaller sample than anyone should use to make significant decisions, but I like to use this filter to help isolate players – especially pitchers – who have had recent hot streaks.  Ottoneu uses large 40 man rosters, so often I will use the last few roster spots to preemptively buy some of these early hot streaks. Especially if you’re a first place team – or a team near the top of the standings – you are will lose any tie-breaks on free-agent auctions so being the first team to buy into a player (or auction a player) can be key to keeping reinforcements on your bench in the event of an injury.  Today, we’ll look at several pitchers who are near the top of the current “Last 14 Day” leaderboard and look at a couple lessons we can learn from this group.

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