Previewing the 2016 Arbitration Magnets

As I sit watching some of the game’s best players battle between commercials in the one July game that really “counts” I’m reminded that the All-Star break is the natural rest period set aside to catch up on the baseball stats and facts that I’ve otherwise overlooked all season.  For instance:

Did you know that Ian Desmond entered the break as both a top five fantasy shortstop (#2) and top five outfielder (#5)?

Did you know that Dellin Betances has a lower xFIP (1.15) than FIP (1.20), and that if you added his xFIP to that of his lanky teammate Andrew Miller (1.09), you’d only find five other relievers in MLB with a better xFIP (one of which is also a teammate) than their combined 2.24?

Did you know there is a backstop on the Angels named Jett Bandy?

Did you know that the Diamondback’s new road gray uniform includes a snake biting a baseball on the sleeve?

These are just a few of the things you notice when take a breather to dig back into what makes baseball the best game in the world.  So, while you’re catching your breath this week, I thought it would also be helpful to provide you with a preview of how some of the best fantasy “bargains” are shaping up this year.  Or, in other words, some of the players that are well on their way to becoming Ottoneu arbitration magnets this off-season.

If you’re unfamiliar how arbitration works in Ottoneu, you can read more about it here, but it’s one of the more unique features of the platform that uses the market forces of your league to “correct” player prices over time.  Your leaguemates essentially get the opportunity to increase a limited number of player salaries on your team each season by allocating arbitration dollars (up to $3 per team) to what are likely to be your best, most under-priced players.  Don’t worry, you get to return the favor, but figuring out which players to increase can be a tough strategic decision on a roster full of breakout and bargain players, which is why the arbitration process is stretched out over a 30 day period that begins just after the regular season closes.

The players that attract the most arbitration dollars in Ottoneu each winter are not always just the “best” players in baseball.  As in most dynasty leagues, value is a function of both production and cost (salary or draft slot), and the strong economic foundation of Ottoneu is no different.  If you remember back to last winter you probably won’t be surprised that Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Jake Arrieta were the top three arbitration recipients in Ottoneu since they were some of the biggest breakout stories of 2015.  Chad did a great job running down the arbitration results last November, so today I’ll submit to you a list of 25 players who I think could be well on their way to big arbitration raises this winter, listed in order of their average salary within all Ottoneu leagues.

A few quick comments:

Clayton Kershaw

Kershaw didn’t actually make the top 35 targets last season, but he’s been so good this year that even his near $60 average salary may not deflect the likely arbitration coming his way.  However, his injury and uncertain return date might actually shield him a bit from a big salary increase, so a healthy, successful 2nd half is critical to his final ranking on this list.  I’m optimistic.

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson enters the break as the #1 hitter in Ottoneu FGPTS (750 points), and one of the clear best players YTD even in 5 x 5 (.304/23/80/63/6) roto formats.  He’s been a monster and keeps getting better.

Kris Bryant

Bryant will maintain 3B/OF eligibility for 2017, so that added versatility, his youth, the Cubs’ hype, and those crystal blue eyes will all contribute to his arbitration magnetism nearly as much as his still somewhat prospect-suppressed $29 average salary.  Bryant could actually end up in the top 3  of this list two years in a row, which would be impressive.  There could also be an interesting argument forming this winter about who is the 2nd best OF in baseball behind Trout next year…

Jose Fernandez

There’s been some debate about whether Kershaw might actually be worth $70 or even $80 in Ottoneu, but even if that’s only 80% true, there’s nearly as strong an argument to make that Jose Fernandez could be the only other true $50+ starting pitcher entering 2017.  His $29 average salary is still TJS-suppressed, so he’s almost untradeable at this point.

Mookie Betts

Betts is just fun to own, fun to watch.  He’s got that cache that makes him a natural arbitration target and that $20 average salary makes him a ridiculous bargain if he’s a true $40+ OF now or next year.  Mookie is already (or soon to be) the next McCutchen, and his high spot in the BOS batting order makes him especially valuable in both points leagues and roto.

Matt Carpenter

I recently saw a Matt Carpenter ($28)-for-Bryce Harper ($55) trade in one of my leagues and did a double take: for Bryce Harper, really? But after digging deeper into Carpenter’s season I think it’s now easy to say that Carpenter is actually the better bargain here and his 1B/2B/3B eligibility next year will continue to make him one of the most underrated stars in fantasy and MLB.

Corey Seager

Remember like last week when Corey Seager was a stud prospect? Well, he’s quickly turned into a stud regular for LAD, and he enters the break as the 4th best SS in Ottoneu.  The .370 wOBA for the 22 year old is impressive (his brother is actually still beating him at .379), and the power (.224 ISO) appears to be coming faster than it has for other stud SS prospects like Correa (.199), Russell (.165), Lindor (.154), and Bogaerts (.146).  Another big fantasy debate you’re bound to read all over the interwebs this upcoming off-season: which of the SS above makes for the best dynasty shortstop? My vote is with Seager.

Aledmys Diaz

Seager is terrific but Diaz was otherworldly in the 1st half and has nearly matched Seager’s power (.220) despite looking like a 5th grader.  The big difference here is cost (just $3 average), as Diaz was likely scooped quietly off waivers in your league in mid-April and really hasn’t stopped hitting since.  You’ll still find some skeptics in your league, but the sample is now big enough to make him a clear keeper for 2017 and a prime arbitration target.

Nomar Mazara

You might not have noticed yet, but Mazara hasn’t actually been all that great since April (122 wRC+).  In fact, he’s been on a steady decline since May (107 wRC+), but his hype is still strong, and I suspect that a rebound in the 2nd half as he makes adjustments around the league will keep him front in center in the minds of your leaguemates.  Sometimes arbitration is all about being “top of mind” as the season ends, and Mazara has enough prospect pedigree not to go unnoticed at arbitration time even if his season end up only being average.

Jake Lamb

Of all the players on this list, Lamb might stand the chance to win the title as #1 arbitration target this November.  For an average price of just $4 he’s arguably been the best bargain of any fantasy player this year (152 wRC+, 20 HR, .291/.371/.612), and may end up on a lot of championship fantasy teams.  All this success without completely figuring out LHP (batting just .200 in 60 AB), too so most of your league will assume the sky is the limit and the future might look like an Anthony Rizzo-clone as early as 2017.  If his second half resembles anything like the first, I’d expect Lamb to shoot right to the top of this arbitration list.

There are a ton of great seasons materializing this year but these 25 above represent some of the best bargains in the game in 2016, and whether or not you play Ottoneu these players are likely among some of the most coveted in your keeper/dynasty leagues right now.  Since predictions are more interesting than projections, I’ll take a stab at the top 10 arbitration recipients when the 2016 season ends:

1. Jake Lamb
2. Corey Seager
3. Kris Bryant
4. Mookie Betts
5. Matt Carpenter
6. Marcell Ozuna
7. Jose Altuve
8. Jose Fernandez
9. Clayton Kershaw
10. Michael Saunders

Did I leave anyone off the list? Who do you think will make the top 10?