Of starters who have thrown a fastball at least 200 times this year, Yusmeiro Petit’s average velocity (89.13 MPH according to Baseball Pro’s Pitchf/x leaderboard) comes in at #167 of 173. Yet, only Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Yu Darvish have better K-rates than him. Only Kershaw, Francisco Liriano, Masahiro Tanaka, Sale, Tyson Ross and Carlos Carrasco have a better swinging-strike rate than him in general.
I spent an hour trying to find something relevant to say about the last two weeks of the season but was unsuccessful. Or at least there was no topic worth spending several hundred words on. If you’re looking for a two start streamer in what is likely the last week of your H2H playoffs, look at Blue Jays Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison. They’re the most talented pitchers owned in less than 50% of ESPN.com leagues in terms of K-BB% and OPS allowed on balls in play (aka limiting hard contact). Instead, let’s spend a few hundred words quickly running through a way too early top 10 SP list for next year. Read the rest of this entry »
I wanted to highlight Pitcher over and under performers. Naturally, Mike Podhorzer has already done that and more concisely and eloquently than I ever could. In conjunction to what he did (ERA vs. SIERA within this year), I wanted to look at pitchers’ skills and luck relative to last year.
By “skills” I mean K%-BB%, combined Contact% and SwStr%, GB/FB and IFFB%. These columns are in green.
By “luck” I mean BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB. These are in some emotional shade of red.
I took all the 2014 vs. 2013 differentials and z-scored them. I summed them up and presented them under column 3 (“SKILL”) and column 4 (“LUCK”). In short, these are not their skill and luck scores for 2014, but their change relative to 2013…in relation to how much everyone else from this list changed (50 IP qualifier).
My bold predictions article from last year was summarily found to be not bold. The very first commenter said it wasn’t bold and 63 people gave that comment a thumbs up. Another commenter sarcastically chided me saying “You mean Rickie Weeks won’t have (a) career worst season again?” As it turns out, Weeks did have his career worst full season according to wRC+. Not sure if that makes me or the commenter dumb. Probably both.
What I did in last year’s bold predictions was take guys from each position that weren’t being drafted as starters who I thought would be starters. Only three of my ten predictions came true, which is the same batting average Eno thinks is normal for these bold predictions articles. Of course that could just mean that I’m so bad at this that I couldn’t get more than 3/10 right with such obvious calls.
But I’m getting back on the horse this year with a slightly different saddle. The mistake I made last year was discussing players I had ranked as starters in my preseason ranks. This year I’ll be discussing guys that I have ranked just outside starter territory that I think could end up beating my projection and ranking. This means that all players discussed will have an ADP that is, on average, lower than that of the players I discussed last year (all ADP from ESPN). I guess technically that makes the predictions more bold.
If you still don’t think the predictions are bold enough, sorry. My real goal here is to simply identify some guys around the diamond that I think are undervalued in drafts. The ‘bold’ in the title is there on mandate from the higher-ups. If it was up to me, this post would be titled something like ‘Undervalued Players at Each Position.’ If you happen to think some or all of the predictions are actually bold, that’s all the better. Read the rest of this entry »
In the coming weeks, we’ll be covering each team’s potential depth charts in an effort to shine a spotlight on the interesting playing time battles that will be waged this spring. Obviously none of these depth charts are set in stone — rather they should function to focus your attention in the right places to find cheap fantasy value.
Here’s all we can say that we know for certain about the Dodger rotation right now, as pitchers & catchers around baseball are reporting to camp: Clayton Kershaw is going to start on Opening Day against the Giants, and Zack Greinke is going to follow him. Read the rest of this entry »
You’re gonna have to learn your clichés. You’re gonna have to study them, you’re gonna have to know them. They’re your friends. Write this down: “We gotta play it one day at a time…I’m just happy to be here and hope I can help the ballclub…I just wanna give It my best shot and, Good Lord willing, things’ll work out.” — Crash Davis
While the influx of baseball chatter and interviews is sincerely welcomed at this time of year, we, as fantasy owners, must maintain a clear head and corral that child-like jubilation that a new baseball season brings. You’re going to hear a number of comments regarding players and teams from both coaches and general managers, as well as from the players themselves. You’re going to hear things that get you excited about a particular player and if you don’t take things with a grain of salt, you could get swept up in the pomp and circumstance of spring training, lose sight of what’s actually in front of you, and fall victim to the hype.
So with that, let’s look at some common phrases you’ll hear and how you might want to react to them. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s not news to say that Clayton Kershaw had a fantastic 2011, and we’ll know on November 17th if it was good enough for the Baseball Writers Association to hand him any hardware because of his efforts. What’s been so interesting to research is how Kershaw has evolved over the last four years from a very good 4-win player to an elite 7-win player.
Kershaw has been good pretty much from the moment he arrived Los Angeles, but even throughout very successful 2009 and 2010 campaigns, he had his limitations. His walks were out of control, he struggled against right handed batters, and because he pitched like he was trying to strike out every batter, his pitch counts kept him from going deep into games. It’s almost as if Kershaw systematically addressed every single one of his shortcomings in the off-season to become something of a superhero version of himself.
What follows is a graphical homage to his ability to adapt, and to just be freakishly good.
With the second half of the season beginning this weekend and your league’s trade deadline rapidly approaching, keeper league owners are making the same tough decision that numerous MLB teams are making. Are they buyers or sellers? If in contention for a top finish, keeper league owners are deciding which stud protect to deal off to bolster their roster for a run at the title while the bottom-feeders are licking their chops, ready to give up the world to get their man. It turns into quite the ugly battle in most leagues and is usually a primary source of fantasy angst. But like it our not, it’s reality. Welcome to the dump trade. Read the rest of this entry »
Ever wonder how the starting pitchers representing the NL in the All-Star game ranked in terms of fantasy value? Wonder no more!
Continuing on last week’s theme, we turn our attention today to the National League fantasy All-Stars. As a reminder, I’m basing this on the past calendar year’s performance under the FanGraphs Points scoring system. The $ values shown are the player’s average cost on ottoneu FanGraphs Points leagues.
Catcher: Brian McCann (894 pts, .377 wOBA, $30)
Alternates: Buster Posey (753 pts, .368 wOBA, $31) and Carlos Ruiz (595 pts, .350 wOBA, $5)
Brian McCann is such a stud. He’s been the best fantasy catcher in the National League for years, and yet somehow I think he still is a bit underrated. Speaking of underrated, Carlos Ruiz has been a monster over the past year, even if he doesn’t play as often as some of the big guns. I have him in a 20-team league and can’t find anyone who wants him!