Archive for Clayton Kershaw

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 38 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics.

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Felipe Paulino – pitched in just 5.2 innings after the break. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to a lack of playing time.

Francisco Liriano – His second half ERA was better than his first half mark, but both metrics thought he was outstanding before the All-Star break. This is a clear win for xFIP.

Anibal Sanchez – His 2nd half ERA (3.44) was a near-perfect match for his first half FIP (3.46).

Clay Buchholz – Both systems thought Buchholz was not nearly as good as he was in the first half. FIP had his as a keep while xFIP said he was an active sell. Since Buchholz did even better in the second half of the season than the first, this was a clear victory for FIP.

Josh Johnson – Both systems had Johnson as a keeper, but xFIP did a better job predicting his 3.50 post All-Star break mark.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – After allowing 4 HR in 71 IP in the first half, Matsuzaka served up 9 HR in 82.2 IP after the break. Big win for xFIP.

Johan Santana – His 3.00 ERA in the second half almost identical to his first half mark of 2.98. xFIP had Santana as a cut, so an easy win for FIP.

Jason Vargas – Eight of his 14 starts after the break came on the road and he allowed eight of his 10 second half HR away from Safeco. Big win for xFIP.

Justin Verlander – In the last three years, Verlander has posted an ERA over 5.50 in the month of April. He was terrific from May 1st through the end of the season again in 2010. Easy win for FIP.

Barry Zito – A lousy second half of the season made Zito a spectator for the Giants in the post-season. xFIP did an outstanding job predicting Zito’s collapse.

Ubaldo Jimenez – Just like with Zito, xFIP was just about perfect predicting Jimenez in the second half.

Tom Gorzelanny – Both systems saw Gorzelanny as a pretty good pitcher, but xFIP came closer to his second-half collapse.

John Danks – Again, the crystal ball for xFIP was right on target for Danks.

Tommy Hanson – In both seasons in the majors, Hanson has outperformed his xFIP. He turned it up a notch in the second half of 2010, thanks as much to his .233 BABIP as his 7 HR in 100.1 IP.

Matt Cain – Another pitcher with a history of outperforming his peripherals, Cain beat his FIP by nearly a run and his xFIP by nearly two runs in the second half of 2010.

Clayton Kershaw – Just as good in the second half of the season as he was in the first.

Cliff Lee – Many people wanted to eliminate Lee from this study last year, as he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. But Lee outpitched his xFIP after the break in 2009. No such luck for Lee this year while following a similar story line of moving to a tougher park for pitchers.

C.J. Wilson – Like Kershaw, he was remarkable consistent between halves and ended up as a win for FIP.

Livan Hernandez – Those of us who kept predicting the bottom to fall out for Hernandez in 2010 are still waiting. Meanwhile, his second half ERA of 4.02 was a perfect match for his first half FIP.

Doug Fister – I imagine even the staunchest FIP supporters were shopping Fister every chance they could.

Fausto Carmona – After back-to-back seasons with a BB/9 over 5.00, Carmona allowed just 29 BB in 94.0 IP after the break last year. That had more to do with it than HR rate (10 HR in 94 IP) for why FIP was a clear winner.

Gavin Floyd – Fantasy owners did not know start from start what to expect from Floyd, but xFIP did a nice job of predicting his second half ERA.

Mark Buehrle – Like Wilson and Kershaw, Buehrle was a model of consistency with his ERA between halves this year. However, I worry about his K/9 rate and would be shocked if he was on any of my teams next year.

Brandon Morrow – With the Blue Jays out of the race, they decided to shut down a healthy Morrow after his first September start, which limited him to 46.1 IP after the break. A polar opposite to Buehrle, Morrow posted a 10.95 K/9, up from 8.14 a season ago.

Johnny Cueto – Cueto’s second half ERA was in the range predicted by his first half FIP and xFIP. But it was just 0.05 away from his FIP.

John Lackey – His second half ERA of 3.97 was a nice match for his 3.89 career mark but I doubt that makes too many Red Sox fans happy about his season and the team’s remaining obligation to him.

Kevin Correia – The first player on our list to have a big discrepancy between his FIP and xFIP due to a high HR rate, Correia did not show much regression in the second half of the year. Those who thought he would rebound, especially considering his home park, were disappointed. Correia allowed 13 HR in 82.1 IP in Petco this year.

Cole Hamels – Just like in 2009, one pitcher from the high HR rate side completely turned things around to become one of the best pitchers in the second half. Hopefully, Hamels has more luck in 2011 than 2009’s entry did. Rich Harden had a 5.58 ERA in 20 games with the Rangers this year after having a tremendous post-break performance (2.55 ERA) in 2009.

Nick Blackburn – Both systems would have advised cutting Blackburn, who responded with a 3.94 ERA in the second half, as he showed a big across-the-board improvement, including a microscopic 1.83 BB/9.

Kevin Millwood – Most of the players with a high HR/FB rate come back as not worth the risk by both systems. But xFIP said Millwood was significantly better than he showed in the first half and did an excellent job projecting his post-break ERA.

Jeff Karstens – An sore shoulder led to just one appearance in September. I regret the pain suffered by Mr. Karstens but it’s probably just as well that it played out that way.

Zach Duke – Hard to believe he made the All-Star team in 2009. Since then he is 11-23 with a 5.52 ERA.

James Shields – Both systems predicted a big bounce-back performance in the second half by Shields but that never materialized. He continued to give up HR by the basket, saw his K/BB ratio drop by over a full point and saw his BABIP increase to .362 after the break.

Brian Bannister – Limited to 25.2 IP in the second half due to rotator cuff tendinitis.

Randy Wolf – Both systems saw Wolf as waiver wire fodder but he had a 2.67 ERA in his final 13 starts, which was right after I placed him on waivers in a dynasty league.

Doug Davis – Elbow tendinitis kept Davis from pitching after the All-Star break.

Ricky Nolasco – FIP was nearly perfect with its Nolasco forecast, a marked departure in recent history, as he has generally underperformed his peripherals the past two seasons. Of course, Nolasco pitched just 47 innings after the break due to knee surgery.

Ian Kennedy – Neither system thought much of Kennedy going into the break but xFIP had a brighter outlook. Meanwhile, Kennedy put it altogether after the All-Star game, with Quality Starts in seven of his last nine outings. He finally started pitching well in his home park. In his last three games in Chase Field, Kennedy allowed 4 ER (0 HR) in 19 IP.

*****

When I started this comparison in 2009, my belief was that you would be just as well off using either system. After last year, there was a definite raw advantage for xFIP but now with two years worth of data, the two systems are basically even. Overall, there have been 72 pitchers who’ve had a 0.50 or greater difference between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break. Here’s how they did if you used their first half FIP or xFIP to project their second half ERA:

xFIP – 37
FIP – 34
Push – 1

Both systems have strengths and weaknesses. Generally speaking, xFIP does a better job with non-elite pitchers with low HR rates while FIP does a better job with elite hurlers. So, if a Tom Gorzelanny is cruising along with a sub-7.0 HR/FB rate, it appears you should look to sell high. But if it’s Justin Verlander, perhaps you should hold onto him.

We know that over the long haul that xFIP is the better metric to use for most pitchers. The issue here is that for one season (or one partial season) there may not be enough time for regression to fully kick in. Let’s look at Tim Lincecum. In the first half of 2009, he had a 3.9 HR/FB rate. In the second half of the season he had a 7.5 HR/9. This year he had a 9.9 HR/FB ratio. He has been regressing towards a normal HR/FB rate since the first half of 2009. But it did not all come in the same season.

Readers have suggested using first half ERA, or a mid-point between first half FIP and xFIP or an average of all three to see which one best predicted second half ERA. I think these are worthwhile suggestions and perhaps ones that we can use in the future (going back retroactively, too) as our sample size increases. We can also eliminate pitchers who did not pitch substantial innings and look for other trends and anomalies as our population gets bigger.

This started with a claim by my friend and colleague Derek Carty that FIP was basically useless for fantasy purposes with other metrics like xFIP available. Right now it appears FIP is making a case not to be tossed into the trash can by fantasy players.

In 2009, I did a column at the All-Star break to see if FIP or xFIP would be more helpful for fantasy players in making trades. This year I did the same thing. You can see the results below

Should Fantasy Owners Use FIP?
FIP Challenge Results Part I
FIP Challenge Results Part II
FIP Challenge 2010

Here is the table from the 2010 article, along with an additional column, the pitcher’s ERA in the second half of the season.

There are 38 pitchers in the above chart. On a raw scale, the two systems were almost identical, with the FIP metric did a better job of predicting 2nd half ERA in 20 cases while xFIP did better 17 times. Furthermore, FIP did a better job of forecasting 14 of the 26 players with low HR/FB rates and both systems got five of the 11 pitchers (Davis being a wash) with high HR/FB rates.

In 2009, xFIP did better on a raw scale, as it did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers in the sample.

Similar to 2009, most of the pitchers fell outside the range predicted by FIP and xFIP. For example, Liriano’s FIP was 2.18 while his xFIP was 2.97. But he had a 3.31 second half ERA. Only seven of the 37 players listed above had a second half ERA between their first half FIP and xFIP. The two systems were close on this, too, with FIP being better on four of these seven pitchers. In 2009, 28 of the 34 pitchers had second half ERAs outside the range of their first half FIP and xFIP numbers.

Later today I will post a breakdown of all 38 pitchers in this survey.

Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is a special talent. The Texas prep product, taken with the seventh pick in the 2006 draft, used his searing fastball and knee-buckling breaking stuff to whiff over 11 batters per nine innings in the minors. He reached L.A. at age 20, and has since K’d more batters per nine frames (9.4) than any starter not named Rich Harden, Tim Lincecum or Erik Bedard.

It seems like Kershaw’s already an ace — after posting a 4.26 ERA during his rookie season in 2008, he pared that mark down to 2.79 in 2009 and currently holds a 3.06 ERA in 2010. But has the prized young starter made the sort of marked progress suggested by his ERAs? I’m not so sure.

Kershaw’s contact and swinging strike rates have, without question, improved. Opponents made contact against him 79% in 2008, 77.1% in 2009 and have a 71.6% rate this season (80-81% MLB average). Kershaw’s swinging strike rate has shot up from 8.7% in ’08, 10% in ’09 and 12.1% in 2010 (8-9% MLB average). Consequently, his punch out rate has soared — 8.36 K/9 in ’08, 9.74 K/9 in ’09 and 10.19 this year.

But those extra swings and misses have come at a price. Kershaw’s walk rate has gone from 4.35 per nine in ’08, 4.79 BB/9 in ’09 and 5.35 BB/9 in 2010. Taking a look at his splits, it becomes apparent that Kershaw owns lefties, but his performance against right-handers lags behind:

His xFIP against lefties is 3.05 this season, and 2.07 for his career. Kershaw’s xFIP against right-handers is 4.74 this year and 4.60 for his career. Despite walking well over five righty batters per nine frames during his time in the majors, Kershaw hasn’t been hurt badly by opposite-handed hitters. Why? a minuscule home run per fly ball rate against righties — 1.8% this season, and 5.2% during his career.

Pitch F/X data from Trip Somers’ texasleaguers site shows that Kershaw’s arsenal blows away same-handed batters, but he’s mortal against righties:

He still gets a healthy numbers of whiffs with the fastball against righties, but obviously nowhere near the stratospheric rate against lefties. Kershaw’s strike percentage dips a bit as well, but not tremendously so. The big change is that he swaps some sliders for curveballs against righties. That low-70’s deuce, once dubbed “Public Enemy Number One,” is rarely thrown for a strike and isn’t getting many swings and misses. Kershaw’s changeup has never been a big component of his repertoire, but he’s throwing it to righties even less this season — 2.1%, compared to 5.1% last season.

As a rookie, Kershaw’s xFIP (3.96) outpaced his ERA (4.26). Since then, it’s been the opposite. He had a 3.90 xFIP in 2009 (2.79 ERA) and has a 4.26 xFIP in 2010 (3.06 ERA). He does seem to pitch well from the stretch (career 76.8 LOB%, compared to the 70-72% MLB average), and better pitchers (particularly high-K pitchers) will tend to post higher strand rates.

However, as mentioned earlier in the look at Kershaw’s splits, the main reason for the ERA/xFIP dichotomy is an extremely low HR/FB rate — Clayton had an 11.6 HR/FB% in ’08 (right around the MLB average), but that mark fell to 4.1% last year and is 3.9% in 2010. Color me skeptical that he’ll continue to give up homers on fly balls at a clip that’s less than 40% of the big league average. It’s likely that opposing batters will find the bleachers with greater frequency in the months to come.

None of this is to disparage Clayton Kershaw — he’s still younger than some of the guys who will get drafted tomorrow evening, yet he has already established himself as a quality major league starting pitcher. Given Kershaw’s skills, it’s entirely possible that he makes improvements in his game and tames his wildness against right-handers. But, at the present moment, he’s still an unrefined talent with some blemishes to his approach. He’s very good — I just don’t think he’s great yet. Short of gains being made with his control, Kershaw’s ERA may be closer to four than three from here on out.

Here is the latest update to Week Eight 2-start pitchers. Again this list is subject to change going forward.

Pitchers not listed on last update

SFG – Tim Lincecum
STL – Adam Wainwright
LAD – Clayton Kershaw
CHC – Ryan Dempster

Pitchers from Friday no longer scheduled for two starts

STL – Jaime Garcia
CHC – Tom Gorzelanny
SFG – Todd Wellemeyer
LAD – Ramon Ortiz

Lincecum’s velocity is down nearly three miles per hour from 2008 but he has career highs in K/9 (11.01), GB% (48.3), O-Swing% (31.2) and SwStr% (13.4). Not surprisingly, Lincecum also has a career-best 2.35 ERA. Both his FIP and xFIP are slightly higher, but his FIP (2.50) ranks second in the majors while his xFIP (2.72) is the lowest. However, in his last outing Lincecum allowed 5 ER and 5 BB in a no-decision on the road against the Diamondbacks.

In his past four seasons, Wainwright has posted HR/FB rates in single digits. But this year’s mark of 3.6 percent has led to an xFIP a full run above his 2.49 ERA. Regardless, Wainwright is one of the elite pitchers in the game. He uses both a curve and slider effectively and combines a high strikeout rate with a high ground ball rate. Add it all up and Wainwright has thrown a Quality Start in eight of his nine appearances this season.

After getting roughed up in a start against the Brewers, Kershaw has been on fire. In three starts covering 22.1 IP, he has allowed 12 H, 2 ER, 7 BB and has 23 Ks. For the season, Kershaw has a 10.02 K/9 but has really struggled with his walks. His 5.26 BB/9 is the second-worst mark in the league. Kershaw also has a very low 5.6 HR/FB rate, which has led to an xFIP almost a full run above his 3.23 ERA.

Always a good strikeout pitcher, Dempster’s 8.33 K/9 is the highest mark he has ever posted as a starting pitcher. But even with that strikeout rate, a solid GB rate and a .252 BABIP, Dempster is just 2-4 on the season. Last time out he snapped a stretch of four straight losses with a no-decision. Dempster’s HR/FB rate is 11.9% but he has served up 7 HR in his last five games.

Over the offseason we’ll take a look at each position on the diamond and see how the past season affected the positional rankings and where there might be some potential bounceback value picks going into next year’s drafts. (See shortstops, catchers, second basemen, first basemen, third basemen, right fielders, left fielders and center fielders.)

Of course, when it comes to pitchers, the format suffers. We’re not about to do tiered rankings for the top 75+ pitchers that get drafted every year in mixed leagues – that would be one long post. Instead, we’re doing starters by tiers. Tier one, otherwise known as SP1, was last week. SP2 is below.

Imagine if, on offense, you were just able to pick whomever regardless of position? Or, more correctly, what if there were only two positions on offense in fantasy baseball? Infield and Outfield? That’s what it’s like on the pitching side. So, not surprisingly, the second tier of fantasy starting pitchers looks pretty nice. (It’s also reason #36,978 to draft pitching later!)

All of the hurlers in the first tier could easily end up as fantasy aces next year. Matt Cain and Javier Vazquez were probably even SP1s last year… we just doubt their ability to repeat those seasons. Jake Peavy got a demotion from the first set of pitchers because of his health and move to the stronger league. Yovani Gallardo and Tommy Hanson are young, exciting, and ascendant: pick one of them as your SP1 and follow it up with a possible bounce-back veteran like Cole Hamels, and your likelihood of having two fantasy aces is high.

The next tier just has more question marks. Clayton Kershaw has some awesome pitches, and an equally terrible walk rate to go with them. Jair Jurrjens just had too many stranded runners and too many bouncing balls go his way to trust him to be anywhere as good as he was last year. Wandy Rodriguez has now sustained his excellence two years in a row – but his fastball barely cracks 90 miles per hour, and throwing all those curveballs (almost 40%) has to catch up with you some day, maybe. John Lackey brings multiple question marks (rising walk rate, dropping strikeout rate and innings totals) with him into a new stadium. Chad Billingsley looks like he got a little unlucky last year and may return to grace, but given his walk rate, his WHIP may never be elite.

The final tier includes some semi-controversial pitchers, since we all seem to love Brett Anderson more than his major league numbers perhaps bear out. It could be because of his unique stuff, as Dave Allen showed us a while back in a great post. Then we have numbers that seem to suggest that Ricky Nolasco was very unlucky last year and should be in line for a good season as the luck pendulum swings back for him. We also see two former aces that have ridden injuries to the bottom of the SP2s in Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb. Webb’s injury is a bigger deal because it was in his shoulder, but Oswalt is a slight guy with declining innings totals that has talked of an early retirement.

And then we have the two toughest names to place on this list. James Shields never had plus strikeout rates, and with the walk rate and WHIP rising slowly, you have to wonder if he’ll just always be a high-3s ERA guy that won’t get you much more than 160 Ks. Joining him is fellow low-WHIP meister Scott Baker. Both pitchers actually have okay strikeout rates, good walk rates, poor home run rates, and high-3s FIPs. Their low WHIP makes them attractive, and they are good pitchers. But who do you move off the list to get them on?

Seeing that it’s the Holiday season, we are making wishes come true and answering your fantasy questions from our mailbag. Reader Scott writes:

Greetings. I’ve got a tough decision to make in my 9-team NL-only dynasty roto league. Through some solid trades over the past two years, I’ve compiled a strong team, but I can’t decide on my last keeper. We keep 8.
Definites: Hanley Ramirez, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, David Wright, Matt Kemp, Tim Lincecum
Undecided: Josh Johnson, Clayton Kershaw, Pablo Sandoval.
With the hitters I’ve already got, I’m leaning toward keeping Johnson and Kershaw, even though it pains me to let Sandoval go. Though I am nervous about Johnson getting dealt to an AL team. And I’m nervous about Kershaw’s wildness. So, pick two from those three to keep.
We use standard 5×5 categories (Avg., HR, RBI, R, SB … ERA, WHIP, W, S, Ks).
Lineups: 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, C, C, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, Utility; 9 pitchers, no restrictions.
Also, each team keeps 1 AL player (any position) as a “DH” … and mine is Ian Kinsler.

You are right to be worried about Kershaw’s wildness. Even though Kershaw posted a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings last year, he walked 4.79 batters every nine innings, earning himself a 2.03 K/BB ratio and a 3.90 xFIP. While Kershaw may have improved his strikeout rate from his rookie year, his walks increased and his ground ball rate declined. The walk rate is not as bothersome as the ground ball rate, which dropped almost 10% down to 39.4%. A fluky 4.1% HR/FB% will rise, as will his ERA. His stuff is electric, namely his fastball. He has room to improve as a pitcher, but it is unlikely his numbers will be as good as they were last year.

As far as Johnson goes, I’d be more afraid of an injury than a trade. Johnson will likely pitch this season for Florida and be dealt before the 2011 campaign. While this isn’t the best scenario for a keeper, his numbers from last year make it hard to pass up another season of his production. In over 200 innings in 2009, Johnson posted a 8.22 K/9 and 3.29 K/BB, earning himself 15 wins and a 3.23 ERA (3.40 xFIP). He understands how to get ground balls, with a 50.3% rate last year and a career rate of 47.8%. He has a good fastball to go along with a slider and changeup. Johnson had elbow problems in early 2007, and had Tommy John surgery later in the season. If he can stay healthy, he looks to be on pace for another stellar season in 2010.

Sandoval is a solid hitter, but looks to have reached his power peak last season. He isn’t likely to do much better than his .330/.387/.556 line and 25 homers he hit last year. But, don’t expect a decline either. Because he should no longer have his catcher eligibility, his value goes down.

All three have their issues as keepers, but due to your abundance of hitters I would recommend keeping Johnson and Kershaw. While both have their problems, your team should be better off. If you can find a way to package Johnson and Sandoval in a deal for a pitcher, that is your best option. You wouldn’t have to worry about Johnson being shipped to the AL or getting hurt, and you would still get to keep two top pitchers to go alongside Lincecum.

Have a question for the RotoGraphs authors? Send it in to our mailbag (rotographs+mailbag@fangraphs.com) for consideration.

Earlier today, in Part I of the series, I published a chart of 34 pitchers who had a difference of 0.50 or greater between their FIP and xFIP at the All-Star break and their 2nd half ERAs. Here I want to go into more detail rather than just giving a raw score for the two metrics

In rating the two systems, I considered the metrics to recommend keeping a pitcher if at the All-Star break they were at 3.50 or lower, to listen to a trade if they were between 3.51 and 4.00, to actively look to sell the player if they were between 4.01 and 4.50 and to either sell or cut a pitcher if they were above 4.51.

Of course, we also have to consider what the pitcher’s actual ERA was at the break, too. A pitcher could still be a sell candidate if one of the metrics was significantly higher than his ERA. For these extreme cases, I considered a difference between 50-75 points to be a “listen” candidate, while above 75 to be a “sell high” guy.

Zack Greinke – His xFIP was 101 points higher than his ERA, making Greinke a sell high guy. This was a big win for FIP.

Joel Pineiro – After allowing just three home runs in 17 first half games, Pineiro served up eight home runs in 15 games after the break. This was a big win for xFIP.

Tim Lincecum – It was a very good second half of the season for Lincecum, just not as good as the first half. He did have a slightly higher HR/FB rate in the second half, and xFIP did a better job predicting his post-break ERA. Still, those fantasy owners who kept him based on his FIP did not end up disappointed.

Dallas Braden – Made just four starts after the break due to a foot infection. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

Paul Maholm – His second half ERA was lower than his first half one, despite more HR allowed. Still, this was a pitcher that FIP would have identified as a potential buy candidate at the break, so a win for xFIP.

Tim Wakefield – Made just four starts in the second half due to leg and back injuries. Officially a win for xFIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to the lack of playing time.

Clayton Kershaw – He had a 5.0 HR/FB rate at the break and was even better in the second half, as he finished the year with a 4.1 mark. His ERA finished two full runs below what xFIP predicted. This was a big win for FIP.

Derek Lowe – Opponents posted an .888 OPS versus Lowe in the second half of the season, including 10 HR in 331 ABs. This was a big win for xFIP.

Cliff Lee – Everyone thinks the move to the NL turned things around for Lee but he was 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first three games with Cleveland after the break. His HR/FB rate has been below 11 percent the past five seasons. This was a big win for FIP.

Carlos Zambrano – This was the closest one, as Zambrano’s second half ERA of 4.14 was just barely closer to his first-half FIP than his xFIP. Zambrano pitched worse in the second half than in the first, but it had nothing to do with his HR rate, which declined slightly from the 5.8 he posted in the first half. This was a slight win for FIP.

Jair Jurrjens – Both FIP and xFIP predicted Jurrjens’ ERA to rise in the second half and instead he pitched even better after the break. If you went strictly by FIP at the break, you would have listened to offers for Jurrjens. If you went by xFIP you were in the sell/cut area. This was a win for FIP.

Jeff Niemann – As with Jurrjens, both of our metrics predicted an ERA rise from Niemann in the second half. FIP had him as a sell while xFIP had him as a sell or cut guy. This was a slight win for FIP.

Nick Blackburn – Yet another pitcher that both metrics forecasted a rise in ERA. Except this time, the actual rise was more drastic than even the more pessimistic xFIP predicted. Since you might have kept him if you used FIP, this was a big win for xFIP.

Edwin Jackson – Pretty much the same thing as with Blackburn above, except you were even more likely to keep Jackson if you used FIP. This was a big win for xFIP.

Mike Pelfrey – The spread with our two metrics was not nearly as great with Pelfrey as it was for Blackburn and Jackson, but the end results were the same. This was a big win for xFIP.

Jon Garland – FIP projected Garland to be virtually the same in the second half as he was in the first half while xFIP had him being noticeably worse. The trade to Los Angeles invigorated Garland, or perhaps it was simply leaving a bad home park, as he finished the year with a 5.29 ERA at Chase Field and a 1.67 ERA at Dodger Stadium. This was a win for FIP, but probably not a pitcher anyone was targeting at the break.

Felix Hernandez – Again, both metrics predicted an ERA rise in the second half, although xFIP was more pessimistic, making him a sell high guy with a difference of 94 points. Hernandez pitched even better after the break, making this a big win for FIP.

Justin Verlander – Both metrics predicted an ERA drop in the second half for Verlander, with FIP being the most optimistic. Verlander pitched well, but saw his ERA go up, making this a win for xFIP.

Brian Bannister – A 3.66 ERA in the first half made Bannister look like a useful pitcher. Both metrics saw an ERA increase, but xFIP was the most pessimistic. This was a big win for xFIP.

C.C. Sabathia – Our two metrics were split on how Sabathia would fare in the second half. With a predicted decrease from his first half ERA, this was a big win for FIP.

Brad Penny – Our two metrics were split again. But Penny’s ERA went up in the second half. This was a win for xFIP, but not many people who used FIP were angling to acquire Penny.

Vicente Padilla – His HR/FB rate went up significantly in the second half, yet Padilla produced a lower ERA after the break, thanks to a move to the NL. Neither metric identified Padilla as a pitcher to target, although FIP came very close to hitting his actual mark.

Jarrod Washburn – Both metrics identified Washburn as a sell candidate as his ERA was 92 points lower than his FIP and 150 points lower than his xFIP. Officially a win for xFIP, although you likely would have made the same decision regardless of which metric you used.

Jered Weaver – A win for xFIP, which had him as a sell, while FIP had him as a listen. There are also extra points for xFIP for exactly predicting his second half ERA.

Joe Blanton – The metrics were split on how Blanton would fare in the second half. This was a big win for xFIP, which forecasted him to be a useful pitcher and he ended up better than that.

Bronson Arroyo – Technically a win for xFIP but not many fantasy players were running out to acquire Arroyo based on his 4.99 first half xFIP.

Jamie Moyer – Repeat the comment from Arroyo, except sub in 5.06 xFIP.

Trevor Cahill – Same as the above two, except with a 5.18 FIP.

Chris Volstad – Our two metrics were split on Volstad. FIP saw him continuing to be a sell/cut guy while xFIP saw him being a useful pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA. This was a win for FIP.

Rick Porcello – Both systems predicted a rise in ERA but FIP elevated him to cut status. This was a win for xFIP.

Braden Looper – The two metrics were split on Looper, with xFIP predicting a drop in ERA. Looper actually pitched worse in the second half but neither system would have advocated acquiring him at the break.

Josh Geer – Made just three starts after the break due to lousy pitching. Not one that either system would have suggested to add.

Rich Harden – While most of the players with above average HR/FB rates have been of little or no value in regards to fantasy, Harden is the exception. Both systems saw him improving on his first half ERA but xFIP was much more bullish. And Harden exceeded those expectations. This was a big win for xFIP.

Randy Johnson – Appeared in just four games after the break due to a rotator cuff strain. Officially a win for FIP, but one we should probably dismiss due to lack of playing time.

*****

If you made your fantasy decisions this year based on xFIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Pineiro, Lowe, Blackburn, Jackson, Pelfrey, Bannister, Blanton, Harden and to a lesser extent Maholm, Verlander, Weaver and Porcello.

If you made your fantasy decisions based this year based on FIP, you would be feeling very good about your choices with Greinke, Kershaw, Lee, Hernandez, Sabathia and to a lesser extent Jurrjens and Volstad.

From a pure bulk standpoint, you were better off in 2009 using xFIP at the break. But those who relied on FIP were more likely to make the right call on four of the five pitchers with the lowest ERA in the second half among the 34 pitchers in our sample.

We really cannot make any inferences for the future based on this one small sample. What we can say is that judging strictly from results in 2009 it would be a mistake to ignore FIP completely and absolutely while making fantasy decisions at the All-Star break. This year if you used xFIP you would have made the wrong decisions on some of the best pitchers in the game.

At an age when most young hurlers are hopping a Greyhound bus from Inland Empire to Rancho Cucamonga, Clayton Kershaw is starting pivotal playoff games for a Dodgers club seeking its first World Series title since, well, Clayton was born.

The fifth inning of Kershaw’s NLCS game one start highlighted that he is still in the nascent stages of his career. The 6-3 power lefty did walk 4.8 batters per nine innings during the regular season, with a 55.6 first-pitch strike percentage (58.2% MLB average).

Yet despite those occasional bumpy moments, Kershaw has proven capable of quashing opposing lineups. He punched out 9.74 hitters per nine frames, the 7th-highest rate among starters tossing 150+ innings.

Kershaw was extremely tough to hit on pitches within the zone, with an 83.3 Z-Contact% that ranked 6th among starters (the MLB average is 87.8%). And when batters were fortunate enough to make contact, they often popped the ball up, with a 13.5 infield/fly ball percentage (7th among starters).

Most fans know Kershaw for two things: searing fastball velocity and a slow curveball so dastardly, Vin Scully dubbed it Public Enemy Number One.

To be sure, both of those pitches are electric. Kershaw’s run values are a little inflated due to a very low HR/FB rate (4.1%)- some balls that probably should have left yard stayed in, boosting those linear values. But still, his 94 MPH gas was worth +1.48 runs per 100 pitches (third best in baseball). That 73 MPH yellow hammer was similarly effective, with a +1.54 mark. Clayton would rather not talk about his seldom-used changeup, though (-1.78).

But did you know that, since June, Kershaw has integrated yet another quality breaking pitch into his arsenal? Take a look at his pitch usage by month:

April

Fastball (FB) 79%, Curveball (CB) 15%, Changeup (CH) 6%

May

FB 73%, CB 20%, CH 7%

June

FB 72%, Slider (SL) 8%, CB 15%, CH 5%

July

FB 69%, SL 10%, CB 18%, CH 3%

August

FB 67%, SL 11%, CB 20%, CH 2%

September/October

FB 72%, SL 16%, CB 11%, CH 1%

Gradually, Kershaw has added more 81 MPH sliders into the mix. The pitch is fascinating, in terms of how it moves in relation to his world famous curveball. Looking at Clayton’s Pitch F/X data, we see that his new toy breaks away from lefties (in to righties) an average of 4.8 inches. Kershaw’s curveball has similar horizontal movement, breaking away from southpaws 4.1 inches. That curve, of course, has plenty of vertical “drop”, falling 6.8 inches more than a pitch thrown without spin.

Kershaw’s slider creates an interesting dynamic for hitters. They see a big, bending breaker coming toward the plate, but which is it? As an example of how difficult finding that answer might be, here are Kershaw’s release and movement charts from his 10/3 start against the Rockies (his last regular-season start):

Release Point:

Movement:

In this start, Kershaw’s release gave away nothing to the opposition. And, you can see how much the slider and curve mirror each other in terms of horizontal break. Looking at this another way, here’s Clayton’s flight path chart for October, courtesy of Trip Somers’ Pitch F/X tool:

This is a bird’s-eye view of Kershaw’s pitches as they head toward home plate. The flight path of the slider and the curve overlap. Same release point. Same flight path. The poor batter probably won’t know what’s coming until it’s too late.

Overall, Kershaw’s slider was worth +1.36 runs per 100 pitches during the regular season. And, as Somers’ amazing tool shows, the pitch has become an even bigger part of Clayton’s arsenal in the playoffs. Kershaw has gone to the slider 27 percent of the time in the NLDS and NLCS, throwing it for a strike almost 65 percent of the time.

I guess the only question left is, what will Vin Scully call this vicious breaking ball?

Stock Up

Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners

By now, everyone is well aware of Gutierrez’s Road Runner act in center field (the former Indian holds a +20.9 UZR/150 figure in 2009). But how many people realize that the 26 year-old has turned in a quality offensive season as well? Gutierrez owns a .352 wOBA, with 12 home runs and a .295/.355/.460 line in 335 PA. That translates to +8.2 Batting Runs, which ranks in the top 10 among center fielders. Combine the sweet range with an above-average bat, and you have a guy who quietly ranks 2nd in Wins Above Replacement in center field (3.5 WAR).

Brett Anderson, Athletics

Originally a 2nd-round pick by the D-Backs back in 2006, Anderson is most often noted for his polish and four-pitch mix. But he has as nearly as much upside as any young arm in the game as well. During his rookie year, the 21 year old lefty has punched out 6.61 batters per nine innings while issuing 2.36 BB/9, good for a 4.23 FIP. Equipped with a 92 MPH fastball, 83 MPH slider, 77 MPH curveball and an 83 MPH changeup, Anderson has placed 51.2% of his pitches within the strike zone (49.3 % MLB average).

If anything, those numbers underrate Anderson’s work. He posted a 2.0 K/BB ratio in April and 1.86 in May, but improved to 3.57 in June and 6.00 in July. Take a look at the velocity readings on Anderson’s two most utilized pitches (fastball and slider) over the course of the season, along with their Runs/100 pitches value:

April: 91 MPH fastball (-0.47 Runs/100 pitches), 82.7 MPH slider (+1.62)
May: 91.4 MPH fastball (-3.32), 82.4 MPH slider (-0.63)
June: 92.6 MPH fastball (-1.73), 83.8 MPH slider (+4.41)
July: 94.5 MPH fastball (+4.09), 85.6 MPH slider (+7.03)

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Also a 21 year-old southpaw, Kershaw has mauled hitters for 8.78 K/9 in 2009. With a searing 94 MPH fastball (+1.5 runs/100, fourth among starters) and a Looney Tunes curveball (+1.79), Kershaw has managed to thrive in the majors despite walking 5.06 hitters per nine innings, with a first pitch strike percentage (52.9%) that’s about 5 percentage points below the MLB average. While better control and a third offering to keep from losing the strike zone vs. righties stand between Kershaw and acedom, it’s frightening to think that he can already dominate despite being so far from fully developed.

Seth Smith, Rockies

Smith has found himself in the starting lineup often as of late, at the expense of Carlos Gonzalez. The 26 year-old lefty hitter holds a career .297/.392/.495 line in 329 major league PA, and ZiPS calls for a .298/.369/.470 triple-slash for the rest of the 2009 season. A disciplined hitter (17.6 outside swing%, compared to the 25% MLB average), Smith can be a nice asset to fantasy owners. He’s not well-known and likely needs to be seated against tougher lefty pitching (his career minor league line vs. LHP is a patient-but-punchless .276/.360/.385), but Smith holds value in NL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. Just keep an eye on the scheduled starter for the opposition, as he’ll likely only be plugged in against righties.

Roy Oswalt, Astros

It’s hard to believe, but Oswalt is now in his 9th season in the majors. Sometimes, I get the feeling that Houston’s ace doesn’t quite get the level of attention he deserves. While he’s never been the best pitcher in baseball, he consistently ranks among the top 25. The 31 year-old righty is just a pitching metronome, steadily humming along. 2009 is no different: Oswalt holds a 3.77 FIP, with 7.01 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. His overall contact rate is down a tick (from 82.2% to 81.1%), while his percentage of contact within the zone has fallen from 88.1% in 2008 to 84.4% this season (87.8% MLB average). He has been at his best in July, with 17 K’s and just 2 free passes in 23 frames.

Stock Down

Jeremy Hermida, Marlins

Hermida is a exasperating player to watch. In the minors, he looked like a Brian Giles, as a lefty stick with exceptional plate discipline (.398 OBP, 18.5 BB%). After a bumpy beginning in the majors (.310 wOBA in 2006), Hermida posted a .372 wOBA as a 23 year-old in 2007. But instead of building upon that, Jeremy managed just a .321 wOBA in 2008, as his once-pristine plate discipline eroded (27.8 outside-swing% in ’08, compared to the 25.4% big league Avg).

He hasn’t fished at quite as many outside offerings this year (24 outside-swing%, with a 3 percent increase in walk rate). But, Hermida continues to hit more like a middle infielder than a corner outfielder. His ISO was .205 in 2007, but fell to .157 in ’08 and checks in at just .140 in ’09. He’s “only” 25, but Hermida just does not look like an everyday player at this point. A plodding outfielder (career -9.8 UZR/150) with platoon issues (career. 236/.316/.378 vs. LHP) who only pops the occasional double? Is that really all there is here?

Adam LaRoche, Pirates

An impending free agent, the elder LaRoche is doing the Pirates no favors in the club’s quest to place him in another uniform. On the positive side, the 29 year-old lefty batter has drawn walks at a career-high clip (11.5 BB%), while decreasing his first-pitch strike% for the third straight season (from 60.9% in ’07, 58.1 in ’08 and 55% this year; the MLB average is 58%).

On the other hand, LaRoche’s ISO (.193) has dipped from his .230 mark in 2008, and he has a .327 wOBA that just doesn’t stand out at all at first base. LaRoche clearly isn’t a poor player, but he’s just another face in the crowd at baseball’s most powerful position. The former Brave is a career .269/.338/.486 hitter; the average first baseman is batting .276/.362/.484 in 2009. There just aren’t many clubs who can look at that production and say, “that constitutes an upgrade for us.”

Trevor Cahill, Athletics

While fellow rookie Anderson is quickly figuring out the majors, Cahill is scuffling. The 21 year-old remains a fantastic young arm, and his struggles shouldn’t be entirely unexpected considering his occasional control problems in the minors (3.7 BB/9). But it’s clear that Cahill has a ways to go. He has whiffed only 4.11 hitters per nine frames, while showing neither sharp control (3.93 BB/9) nor worm-burning tendencies (47.3 GB%).

While in the minors, Cahill was noted for possessing knockout breaking pitches. Baseball America called described a “79-81 MPH knuckle-curve, a swing-and-miss pitch with hard downward movement” as well as “a low-80’s slider with cutter-like action.” In the show, Cahill has lacked trust in his breaking stuff. Trevor has tossed his curve less than 4% of the time, while using the slider about 6 percent. Both have been crunched (-1.86 runs/100 for the curve, -2.19 for the slider) in a small sample. I wonder if he tossed a few breakers that got hammered early on, and then went into “survival mode” and basically scrapped those pitches.

A.J. Burnett, Yankees

On the surface, Burnett’s first year in the Bronx appears to be going swimmingly (8-4 record, 3.81 ERA). However, his FIP is a less-shiny 4.71. A.J. has handed out far too many BB’s, with 4.61 walks per nine innings in 2009. His K rate is also down, from the mid-nine’s in 2007 and 2008 to 8.1 per nine this year. A .283 BABIP and a strand rate (79.5%) that’s about 8 percent above his career average have helped him stave off a climb in ERA to this point, but he’s going to have to sharpen his control. Perhaps noting Burnett’s wildness, opposing batters have swung at fewer pitches outside of the zone (24.3% in ’08, 20.7% in ’09).

Mike Pelfrey, Mets

The 6-7 sinkerballer has generated grounders at a 53.7% clip this year (up from 49.6% in 2008), but it’s hard to say Pelfrey has made a whole lot of progress this season. His K rate has dropped from 4.93 per nine innings in ’08 to 4.72 in 2009, while his walk rate has increased from 2.87 per nine to 3.23. Pelfrey has located just 46.6% of his pitches within the strike zone. Ironically, the former Shocker has seen his fastball effectiveness drop (-0.25 runs/100 pitches in 2009, +0.82 in ’08) just as his much-maligned breaking stuff has perked up (+0.91 for the slider, +1.68 for the curve).

Without question, Dodgers southpaw Clayton Kershaw is one of the most talented pitchers on the planet. A 6-3, 220 pounder who’s just barely old enough to legally kick back a beer after a game, Kershaw possesses a searing mid-90’s fastball and a hook that earned the “Public Enemy Number One” designation from Vin Scully.

While Kershaw has as much long-term potential as any starter in the game, it can be a little frustrating to watch him endure growing pains at the major league level. Take his last outing: a 2.2 inning, four-walk stinker versus the Padres. In his next start, Kershaw could punch out a baker’s dozen (as he did against the Giants on April 15th), or he could fail to make it out of the third inning.

In 107 innings last season, Kershaw posted rates of 8.36 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 while compiling a 4.08 FIP. Authoring a 4.04 FIP in 2009, he’s whiffing a few more batters (8.72 K/9) but his control has taken another step backward. Kershaw is issuing an unacceptable 5.48 walks per nine innings. That’s the highest rate of free passes among all qualified starting pitchers. Not surprisingly, Kershaw is averaging about 5.1 innings per start, while tossing 4.3 pitches per plate appearance (4.0 in 2008). No pitcher in the N.L. has thrown more pitches per PA (well, unless you wanna count Cody Ross’ one-inning stint for the Fish).

At the moment, Kershaw’s biggest obstacle to acedom would appear to be his lack of a third pitch. Clayton’s 93.6 MPH fastball (thrown about 75 percent of the time) has been a quality offering, with a run value of +0.94 runs per 100 pitches that ranks in the top 20 among starters. That vaunted slooow curve (utilized about 18 percent) is also biting, at +1.58 (just outside the top 20). His changeup, though? Clayton has pulled the string just over 6 percent of the time. While keeping in mind that the sample is small, the change has a sordid run value of -5.42 per 100 pitches (5th worst among starters).

The changeup is typically thrown to opposite-handed batters, so Kershaw hasn’t really had a pitch that moves away from righties. In 2009, Clayton has eviscerated left-handed hitters with his heat and yellow hammer to the tune of a .149/.255/.213 line in 56 PA. He has a 3.17 K/BB ratio versus southpaw batters. While right-handers aren’t exactly lighting him up, they are getting on base at a far higher clip (.237/.355/.390, 1.3 K/BB ratio in 216 PA).

Take that June 10th start against San Diego. The Padres had six guys batting from the right side, none of them especially imposing (Eckstein, Kouzmanoff, Headley, E. Gonzalez, Blanco, J. Wilson). Here’s how Kershaw pitched to a lineup that wouldn’t stand out at Portland (graph courtesy of Brooks Baseball):

The green dots are fastballs, the pink ones are curveballs and the lonely yellow dot is a changeup.

There’s just one changeup. Mostly, Kershaw flipped curveballs up there that he couldn’t locate, or attempted to bust righties on the inner half of the plate with fastballs. He gave up doubles to Kouzmanoff and Headley, and somehow managed to walk Blanco (career .289 OBP) once and Wilson (.279) twice!

That’s an extreme case, but it does serve to highlight the next big step for Kershaw. He’s going to have to find a way to tighten the strike zone against righty batters to graduate from talented-but-inconsistent prodigy to full-fledged ace.