Archive for bold predictions

In March, I covered my Bold Predictions for 2016. Today we’ll keep score. No half points or gimmicks. Most of these will be incorrect. If most of them weren’t incorrect I’d probably be doing this wrong – wouldn’t be bold enough. Like at the time, the purpose was hopefully to give you some insight into why I liked specific players for 2016. Hopefully that was helpful.

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

In March, I pegged Santana as a guy I liked a lot, betting on him to finish in the top-15 OF in Ottoneu FGpts leagues. At the time, I thought he could outperform the likes of Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, and Adam Jones… Oh boy… None of those guys were good this year, right (wincing)?

Then Domingo hurt is elbow. So, this one looks bad in retrospect. I actually liked his production this year at a .343 wOBA and will probably buy again this next year (given the expected price drop). That being said, if you invested heavily, you were probably disappointed – even though he was a capable 4th/5th OF when on the field.

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2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

At the time I cited playing time. Claining that I liked Jaso to play more games than he had over the past few season. I was correct on that front. Jaso played 132 games in 2016. However, he only started 100 of those 132 and his playing time was cut by year end. Looking forward, the outlook is bleak for Jaso. He didn’t retain 1B eligibility and the team also has Josh Bell. So it looks like playing time will be an issue going forward. Jaso did provide a .335 wOBA for 2016 – that’s still a useful role player – but a ways off of a number 2 OF I thought he could be at the start of the year. Add him to the dollar bin of guys for next year.

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3. Vince Velasquez will outproduce Raisel Iglesias

It seemed like Iglesias was everyone’s favorite sleeper to start the year. Then he got hurt. Then shifted to the bullpen.Velasquez ended up outscoring him by about 80 points on the year (Iglesias got some RP innings that boosted his total) and produced $5 more of value.  If you invested in Velasquez – esspecially if you sold on his early season success – you probably turned a nice profit for yourself. The key for Ottoneu is if can cut down on the HR (14.9% HR/FB) and last longer into outings (on average he lasted just over 5 IP per outing).

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4. Edwin Encarnacion will be a top-4 1B

Encarnacion had a good year – Scoring 1000pts in a season is nothing to sneeze at. You were probably happy with the production if you owned him. However, everyone hit in 2016 and David Ortiz, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, and Anthony Rizzo outproduced him in 2016. Those are some good names. Certainly Encarnancion wasn’t disappointing, but we will chalk another one up to the loss column here.

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5. No RP will produce $20 of value.

Another loss. Kenley Jansen was fantastic. Zach Britton didn’t allow a run for most of the year. Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller were both traded out of New York, which helped their value. Each of those name comfortably surpassed $20 of value and there are a couple of other you can probably make a case for Melancon, Betances, Familia, etc. The one thing to take from this is that there was decent turnover after the most elite tier of RP. The elite guys are great, but there were a ton of pop-up candidates as well Addison Reed, Will Harris, Kyle Barraclough, etc.  Those guys churned some large profits in 2016.

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6. Danny Valencia will be a top-60 OF

Another win! According to end of season values, Valencia was the 50th Ranked OF in 2016. If you invested in him cheaply – he didn’t cost a ton preseason – you were probably able to get some nice value out of him (4.96 PPG and a .342 wOBA) . He only played 130 games, but given Ottoneu’s large rosters and platoon ability he was (at worst) a perfect depth piece.

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7. David Peralta will be a top-8 OF

I still like you David. I just need you to stay healthy next year. Currently on the 60DL, Peralta only saw the field for 48 games in 2016. The production was dismal (.308 wOBA and 4.1 PPG). I would bet that some of this production was due to his injury, but regardless – if you invested heavily in Perlata, it was crushing. I really like him as a cheaper piece in 2017, but he isn’t worth much at this point.

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8. No rookie will produce $15 of value

Well hello there, Corey Seager. I thought he would make me look dumb on this one. What I didn’t count on was Gary Sanchez, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, and Aledmys Diaz also topping $15 of value. On the pitching side Edwin Diaz came close, I’ll give it to him (with rounding). It wasn’t the historic Rookie class of 2015, but each of these players are likely pillars of any team they are on.

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9. Maikel Franco will be a top-2 3B

This is probably the worst of all of them. Franco ended the year as the 14th ranked 3B. His .311 wOBA and 4.53 PPG is close to the definition of replacement level. On top of that, several other 3B outproduced what I expected at the beginning of the year – Beltre, Seager, Longoria, Lamb, Turner, Castellanos, and Healy were all great sources of production. If this one hurt you, you weren’t alone. Franco burned me as well in 2016.

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10. By season’s end, Justin Vibber will own 85% of all Clayton Blackburns in Ottoneu

This one was mostly for fun. Clayton Blackburn had a down year and didn’t make the majors,and Justin cut bait on all his shares. Blackburn is only owned in ~4.5% of leagues, so if Justin kept his shares I may have actually got this one right. Justin, I blame you personally for not letting me hit .300.

My colleagues have been reviewing their Bold Predictions this week, so I figured I would follow suit. Here is the link to my original Bold Predictions piece. I am going to take a slightly different approach when reviewing them, however, since most of mine turned out to be pretty brutal. If I were to give legitimate odds on most of these, giving them a 1% chance of working out would be rather optimistic. So I decided to break down each prediction three-fold:

What works with this prediction?

What doesn’t work with this prediction?

What would be the more reasonable prediction at this point?

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Forgive me for some recycling some of last week’s introduction:

Back in March, I made some bold predictions, as all RotoGraphs staff do. Some bold predictions I make simply for the sake of being bold. Or for the sake of making a prediction. One of the two.

We don’t all review our bold predictions — some of us, like Mike Podhorzer, like to wait until October. Some of us don’t have the discipline for such delayed gratification. And, I speak for the group, whether they like or not, but all of us forget most our bold predictions anyway. I remembered a couple, but looking back on them — man, sometimes I wish I hadn’t.

Enough talk. Let’s dig in.

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It’s been a weird week for me, delaying this article by four days. I originally intended to have this up by Monday, but a spontaneous — and completely awesome — decision to attend the NCAA Tournament provided the first delay. I got to see Oklahoma/VCU and the historically unprecedented Texas A&M win over Northern Iowa, so I didn’t feel too bad about being a day late.

Unfortunately, I got myself concussed in a fender-bender the next day (not my fault!), and spent the last few days listlessly staring out my window, the owner of a half-working brain. Hopefully, I’ve recovered enough for the following to make sense, but the fact that my 31st birthday looms this coming Monday means I’m in the midst of my annual birthday-related existential crisis, brain injury or not.

Regardless of the circumstances, it’s Bold Predictions time! I did pretty darn well two years ago, but last year my success rate was roughly equivalent to that of the Brooklyn Brawler. (Fun fact: The Brawler briefly performed in WWF as “The MVP” Abe Knuckleball Schwartz, a bad-guy persona used to rile up fans during the MLB strike of ’94.) Let’s turn the clock back to 2014 and get my boldness rate back to the sweet spot.

Here are my ten Bold Predictions for 2016, roughly arranged in ascending order from safest to craziest:

10. James Shields is not a top-65 starting pitcher, despite throwing 200+ innings for the tenth straight year.

How do we value a 34-year-old coming off a season like Shields just had? He logged over 200 innings and made his annual 33 starts, but posted his worst-ever walk rate — and it’s not even close — at 3.60 BB/9. His HR/FB ballooned to another career worst, at 17.6%. Shields also experienced career bests in two areas, strikeouts (yay!) and strand rate (hmm…).

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I won’t bore you with introduction. You know how this works.

1) Nicholas Tropeano, Tyler Skaggs and Matt Shoemaker generate more value than Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago.

My prerequisite Angels prediction that isn’t Justin Mason’s “Garrett Richards will win the AL Cy Young award,” this isn’t bold as much as it is irritated. One of Tropeano, Skaggs or Shoemaker will earn the #5-starter role, and injuries (namely, Weaver’s back issues) will affect the rotation at some point, too, so I would understand your reluctance to deem this bold. I anticipate, however, that some amount of poor performance will warrant the removal of one or more of the rotation’s key components of the past few seasons, thus opening the door for one of Anaheim’s younger, cheaper, more talented arms.

2) Jose Berrios will be a top-30 starting pitcher.

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Well, here goes it. My first bold predictions list while working at RotoGraphs. This proved to be quite a difficult exercise because a lot of these lists have already been published, and rather than just make a copy combining all of our authors, I wanted to be somewhat original. I guess there is something to the adage that great minds think alike, as some players I mention, have already been mentioned by our wonderful staff. Eno Sarris had mentioned batting .300 last season, so that sounds like a lofty, though attainable, goal for myself. Without further adieu, here are my 10 bold fantasy predictions for the upcoming season.

1.) Chris Carter will break 100 RBI’s.
I am a believer in Carter’s September/October where he slashed .333/.400/.822. He walked less during those months, but he also struck out less. I don’t think he will hit for those numbers for a full season, but I also don’t think he will struggle for a significant part of the season as he did last season. Given regular playing time in Miller Park, the home runs will come. I also like the RBI opportunities with Jonathan Lucroy and Ryan Braun batting immediately in front of him.

2.) Joc Pederson will be a top 3 CF according to WAR
It’s easy to forget Pederson’s first half after his woeful second half. If Pederson mirrored his first half, he would’ve finished with 40 home runs and had been the clear Rookie of the Year Award winner. Pederson, instead, hit a skid that lasted the rest of the season. Still, his walk rate was an excellent 15%. He will never hit for a high average with his low contact rate, but will still provide excellent value with his walks and if his power comes back, which is not far-fetched at all given his age. Star players hit are able to overcome roadblocks and Pederson happened to have an extended one. A full-season of maturing, and a new manager with a different approach could do wonders for this 24 year old.

3.) Wilmer Flores will have over 550 PA’s
With Asdrubral Cabrera potentially starting the season on the DL, David Wright needing more rest than most regulars, and Neil Walker struggling against lefties, there are a few scenarios where Flores receives extended playing time in the infield. With the lack of middle infielders available, Flores could be a nice sneak pick who hit 16 HR’s in under 500 AB’s. The Mets have an aging left side of the infield that will need their rest, and Flores is the clear choice to get those reps, especially with Ruben Tejada recently released. Given a substantial amount of at-bats, 20 home runs is not out of the question.

4.) Johnny Cueto will post an ERA higher than 4
I know, he changed leagues and had a new catcher, and the list goes on why Cueto didn’t pitch as well in August, September, and October. (Well, outside of Game 2 of the World Series). I’m concerned with the age and the drop in strikeouts in his second half. The ballpark and the move back to the NL should help, but I am not convinced he has the stuff anymore to bounce back to his pre-Royals numbers.

5.) Lucas Duda will be a top 5 fantasy 1B
The low batting average, lack of RBI’s, and the strength of 1B fantasy talent has kept Duda out of the top five so far in his career. Duda should have the best line-up he’s ever had surrounding him, meaning more RBI opportunities, and even more opportunities to be driven in. He’s averaged slightly over 28 home runs over the past two seasons, and if he’s able to stay healthy and plays a full season, breaking 30 homers is certainly within the realm of possibility. Stories are breaking that have Duda taking less practice swings before games, which some contribute to his past injuries. Breaking 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s will place Duda in some top tier company at first base.

6.) Marcus Semien will be a 20/20 guy this year.
At 24 years old, Semien showed some positive signs, particularly his 148 ISO, at least for a young SS. His minor league numbers show that a 20/20 season is not too far fetched. Across two levels in 2014 (AAA and MLB) Semien combined for 21 home runs. Across two levels in 2013 (AA and AAA) Semien stole 24 bases. I am basing this prediction mostly on his maturation process, which is not a full-proof way to make predictions. Still, this a player who has the skills to hit these goals and has shown in the past it is attainable if he continues to improve at the major league level.

7.) Jake McGee will have 40 saves.
So, yeah, I put a Colorado pitcher on my list. I’ve always been a fan of McGee’s numbers, and his fastball-only approach makes him an ideal fit in Colorado, if that really exists. Jason Motte is a former closer, so he can make a push, but I think McGee’s past stability and how he potentially fits in Colorado makes him a nice 40 save candidate.

8.) Justin Verlander will win the AL Cy Young
The AL has some strong Cy Young candidates, and health will always be a question for Verlander, but I see an excellent season coming from the Tigers ace. His second half was vintage Verlander in terms of ERA and WHIP. His strikeout rate was not where it once was, but he showed stronger control and command. The Tigers line-up and rebuilt bullpen should also help his win total, which we all know doesn’t mean everything in real baseball, but in terms of Cy Young voting carries significant weight.

9.) George Springer will go 30/30
Springer stole 34 bags in the minors in 2013, but surprisingly has yet to hit 30 homers in any level. That’s not necessarily because he lacks the ability, but mainly because he has trouble staying healthy. If Springer stays healthy, the sky’s the limit, but that has been a big if. He had a semi-Jekyll and Hyde season last year where he started the year off with more power, walks, and less contact, then dropped his walk rate and power, but significantly improved his contact rate. Putting those all together (or some combination of those improvements) can go a long way towards this prediction.

10.) Trea Turner will lead the Nationals in stolen bases.
Playing time and Ben Revere will be the main deterrents for this prediction. Even if Turner is not starting to begin the year, I think he will find playing time with Danny Espinoza being his main competition at short, and Daniel Murphy potentially getting time at first base if Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt. I also see Turner as a late inning replacement in close games in order to steal a bag to put crucial runs in scoring positions. Dusty Baker likes to run and this Spring Training has shown nothing different.

These predictions are specifically based on Ottoneu FGpt scoring. Perhaps “Bold” isn’t defined clearly enough, but my hope is that this is structured in such a way that my thought process can provide some benefit (even if the predictions seem a little extreme at face value.)

1. Domingo Santana will be a top 15 OF.

Nelson Cruz, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones…  If you looked at our FGpt OF rankings, these are the 15-20^th ranked outfielders. Which is to say, I think Domingo Santana could be better than all of them (and the rest of those listed below him in our rankings) in 2016. The Brewers do not look like a good team (yet…) so – unless he gets injured – expect a full slate of playing time, a great home park, and lots of power (three things that are gold in linear weights scoring.) The obvious hole in his game is the strikeouts (34% in 2015), but if he can reign that in at all, the upside is tremendous.

2. John Jaso will be a viable 2nd OF

The obvious issue has been playing time (70, 99, 70 games played over the past 3 seasons), but given that he slated to play 1B, I feel fairly confident he will play more games than he has in any of the past 3 seasons.  If he does, he could easily produce value which is expected of many #2 OF in FGpts. The Pirates’ outfield is set, so don’t expect him to retain eligibility for 2017, but he should be incredibly useful for this season. Alex Gordon, Starling Marte, Adam Jones, Christian Yelich, Charlie Blackmon, and Yoenis Cespedes are all projected to be within 5 points of wOBA of Jaso. Those players will cost $18-$25 apiece. If he can stay on the field, Jaso has a good chance to be in that tier, and you can get him for about a third of that price.

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Despite no longer truly being a part of the RotoGraphs family, Eno Sarris was kind foolish enough to allow me a guest spot among these lovely digital pages. That’s right folks, brought back by no-so-popular-demand, here are my 10 Bold Predictions for the 2016 Season! After posting dismal results in both 2013 and 2014, I came to life and nailed four of my 10 picks last year. Buckle up, because here comes the fun!

1. Jake Arrieta finishes the season outside the top-15 for SPs in 5×5
This isn’t a knock on Arrieta so much as it is a compliment to the other top arms. I think most would agree Kershaw is the clear No. 1, followed in some order by Sale, Scherzer, Arrieta, Mad-Bum, Greinke, Price, Cole, Harvey, deGrom, Kluber and Strasburg. After Kershaw, that is 11 excellent hurlers, and I didn’t even get to Thor, Archer, Carrasco, Felix, Cueto et al. I don’t see Arrieta repeating his historic second half, particularly the .205 BABIP and 88.2 percent LOB%. The defense behind him did get better with Addison Russell taking over shortstop duties from Starlin Castro in early August, yet that wouldn’t explain all of the BABIP difference, let alone Arrieta’s 0.17 HR/9 in the second half. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Arrieta in the 11-15 range come the end of the season, but he’s being drafted as the third or fourth best pitcher, in my opinion largely on the back of numbers no human could repeat. He still has a great swinging strike and K rates, however the top of the SP pyramid is awfully crowded. Of course, when the Cubs offense helps power him to 25 wins, feel free to make fun of this pick. Read the rest of this entry »

Last year, I hit .300 on my Bold Predictions, which is about what I aim for. That feels like the boldness sweet spot. This year, not so much. It saddens me to report that I was overly bold this year, getting just one Bold Prediction right. However, one other was incredibly close, so I’ll say that I hit .150 this season. Still, I can and will do better next year.

I have failed you, dear readers.

1. Jorge Soler is a top-ten outfielder.

Well, he was a top-100 outfielder, slotting in at No. 99 on the season. Soler battled his fair share of injuries this year, but even when he was healthy enough to play, he hit just .262/.324/.399, with 10 home runs in 404 plate appearances. For the year, he registered a 0.0 WAR. Here’s hoping he turns it around next season.

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One time, I made some bold predictions about the 2015 season. They were, by and large, pretty terrible, as most bold predictions usually go. However, not all of them were complete losses, and it seems appropriate anyway to review them at the season’s midway point. In addition to brief analyses for each player where applicable, I also provided completely arbitrary percentages of probabilities that my remaining predictions will hit.

1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.

Dude swings so hard, he fractures his wrist. It’s incredible, and aside from getting hit in the face by a Mike Fiers fastball last year, Stanton has suffered non-freak injuries in all of his professional seasons that have caused him to miss significant time — hence, the basis of this prediction. He ranks third of all outfielders, according to the ESPN Player Rater, and six weeks of missed time gives me a solid chance here. A wrist injury is by no means a death knell for a hitter’s power, but there’s reason to believe, aside from reasons related to regression, he doesn’t match his production through the season’s first three months — as in he hits closer to 10 or 12 home runs rest-of-season rather than 15 to 20.

Probability: Read the rest of this entry »