Archive for bold predictions

1) Miguel Sano is a top-ten first baseman.

I know it’s a story as old as time but did you know Miguel Sano dropped 25 pounds in the offseason? While this might not matter to most, I don’t blame you, I’ll tell you why it does matter.

Anyone who has watched Sano play can tell something has always been off with him. By that I mean he always seemed to just…not care. Sounds weird, I know, but when I have talked to others including some Twins fans they all seem to agree.

Coming into camp in the best shape of his life looks like an attitude shift.

Getting into the numbers it is no surprise Miguel Sano hits the ball hard. Very hard. He is top five in virtually every exit velocity metric there is for the first base position. 30 home runs will be there and there is no dispute about it.

In order for him to take a step forward the average needs to come up. A .233 average with a .215 xBA just won’t cut it. The good thing is Sano has hit over .245 three times in his career though and his BABIP was below his career average last season leaving some room for improvement.

Compared to 2020 he improved in K% (lowest of career), SwStr% (lowest since 2018), and Z-Contact% (highest since 2018). Now, none of his numbers are great but I am also not saying he will hit .280.

If a healthy Sano who actually cares can find some luck and hit .250 he takes a big jump in value. If this happened, what would be the difference between him and Josh Bell who is going as a top ten first baseman?

Read the rest of this entry »

The good news…I didn’t get all of my 2019 Bold Predictions wrong. But I came pretty close. Let’s take a look and see what exactly went wrong.

1. Gary Sánchez will set the major league single-season record for home runs by a catcher.

This prediction was inspired by a bold prediction made by my wife, Mary Beth Melchior — that J.T. Realmuto would break the single-season record of home runs hit by a catcher. In his first season with the Phillies, Realmuto set a career-high with 25 home runs, but only 23 were hit with him in the lineup as a catcher. That total fell 19 home runs short of tying Javy Lopez’s record. Sánchez came a little closer, hitting 27 of his 34 home runs as a catcher. Despite some likely assistance from the rabbit ball, Sánchez probably would not have broken the record, even if he managed to stay healthy all season.
Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to review the bold.  Here’s the full list from March.  Let’s see how it played out.

1 – Dan Vogelbach will finish with a wOBA higher than Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Vogelbach: .333 wOBA in 558 PA, 111 wRC+

Vlad, Jr.: .329 wOBA in 514 PA, 105 wRC+

Considering the level of hype that surrounded Vlad, Jr. this past spring, this prediction was equivalent to baseball heresy.  And yet here we are, a win (just barely) right out of the gate.  Vogelbach didn’t make it easy…he hit .310/.462/.732 in 25 April games and then just .189/.316/.386 (.304 wOBA) over his last 465 PA.  There’s an argument Vogelbach isn’t a major league caliber bat based on that downward cycle, but in total he still somehow managed to outhit the most impressive rookie resume since Bryce Harper.

1 for 1

2 – Adam Frazier will win the National League batting title.

And the NL batting title goes to…Christian Yelich and Ketel Marte at .329 AVG.

Despite a .285 batting average against right hand pitching and a .301 mark at home, Frazier couldn’t carry forward his 2018 second half breakout (.375 wOBA), finishing with a lackluster .278 batting average.

1 for 2

Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 season is here.  Let’s get right to it.

1 – Dan Vogelbach will finish with a wOBA higher than Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

You could say that to date neither Dan Vogelbach nor Vladimir Guererro, Jr. have accomplished anything in the major leagues.  While true, that’s where the comparison ends.  Vogelbach is 26 years old and has less than 150 major league plate appearances on his resume (career 78 wRC+). Vlad, Jr. just turned 20 years old, is the consensus #1 prospect in baseball, and is the son of a beloved Hall of Fame player.

I have absolutely nothing against Vlad, Jr. and am as excited as anyone else to watch him carve out what is likely to be a stunning career with the bat.  However, as I tried to express recently, the expectations are so high here that we may all be setting ourselves up for a little bit of disappointment.  As we are often reminded with even elite prospects, baseball is hard, and the game has a funny way of humbling even the most talented athletes in the world, at least for a time.  Patience will be prudent with Vlad, Jr., but most of us will have none of it.

Vogelbach has posted a minor league slash of .282/.391/.472/.864 over eight seasons, including a .907 OPS in 342 AAA games.  He’s a professional hitter, but up until this point he’s had Nelson Cruz blocking his path to SEA.  That roadblock is now removed, and as of this writing it’s all but certain Vogelbach will get a shot to stick on the Mariners’ roster to begin the season.  From the write up for the 2019 Seattle top prospects:

Read the rest of this entry »

This is my fifth year of Bold Predictions, and I find them to be no less of a headache today than I did back in 2014, when I boldly predicted 20+ homers for Jon Singleton, and a top-40 fantasy outfielder season for Abraham Almonte. That said, I think I’m pretty close to the Bold Predictions Sweet Spot of 30% correct this year, as these are all varying degrees of “unlikely but not outrageous.” Also, I had more fun with these than I usually do, so that has to count for something. I’m sure I’ll hear from all the die-hard Whit Merrifield zealots in the comments section regardless.

Here we go!

1. Eugenio Suarez is a top-10 third baseman

Fresh off signing a 7-year, $66 million contract extension with the Reds, the 26-year-old Suarez has a lot to prove this year. I’m quite confident that Cincinnati’s front office will feel very good about that deal, and so will his fantasy owners. The good news started last year, when Suarez massively increased his walk rate for the second year in a row — from 4.3% BB in 2015, to 8.1% in 2016, to 13.3% in 2017 — while also recording a career-best 23.3% strikeout rate.

Read the rest of this entry »

This means we’re actually getting close to official baseball, right? It’s bold prediction season and you know the drill (with an Ottoneu context), so let’s get started.

1. Freddie Freeman achieves 8.0 WAR

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to luck into a .300 batting average, but that is pretty much what happened with my bold predictions. Two of the three calls I got right — Jose Quintana’s high ERA and Nick Castellanos‘ admittance into the 25-homer club — could be at least partially explained by this season’s home run explosion. The remaining seven predictions did not age well, but they have given me new perspectives on several players, including Yuli Gurriel and Jean Segura.

1. Tom Koehler will be roughly as valuable as Matt Moore.

Moore lived down to expectations, but Koehler was still far less valuable than he was. Koehler’s slider, which was key to an extended run of success in 2016, was not an effective pitch for him in 2017. His O-Swing rate on the pitch dropped substantially, from 44.7 to 34.2 percent, and his slider strikeout rate went down, while his Iso went up. Those trends ultimately led to Koehler’s ouster from the Marlins’ rotation, though it provided him with a fresh start in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

WRONG (0/1)
Read the rest of this entry »

I talked a big game about my bold predictions this year spawning from research. Like, instead of just being gut instinct types of things, or just being bold for the sake of being bold. Truth of it is I didn’t do as much research as I would’ve liked. My rotisserie-league drafts were not particularly strong, and while I hit the trifecta (1st, 2nd, 3rd) in my three home leagues (I live modestly), I could simply feel my drafts, as well as my bold predictions, were inferior relative to what I hoped they’d be.

You probably don’t care, though, so this is all filler text, for all intents and purposes. You want to cut to the chase. I don’t blame you! Let me drag this out a bit longer. I’ll review each prediction from March with their corresponding midseason “probabilities” of being correct from July before finally reaching a verdict. I don’t remember half the predictions and I honestly have no idea how I’ll do until I reach the end.

1) Alex Dickerson is a top-30 outfielder. (Midseason odds: 0%)

Read the rest of this entry »

Others have beat me to the punch on predicting great success for Daniel Norris and throwing cold water on Robbie Ray, but I’m guessing no one has yet to argue that Tom Koehler will outperform a pitcher who is being drafted among the top 60 starters. Here is my case for Koehler and nine other bold predictions with slightly lower degrees of difficulty.

Read the rest of this entry »

1. A.J. Pollock receives first-place MVP votes

Pollock put together a season for the ages in 2015. In 157 games and 673 plate appearances, he slashed .315/.367/.498 with a .371 wOBA and 131 wRC+. He hit 20 home runs, scored 111 runs, and stole 39 bases in 46 attempts. That offense, combined with his elite center field defense and base-running, netted him 6.5 WAR ­­­— fifth-best total in the National League. Pollock’s 2015 production wasn’t a fluke: in 75 games and 287 plate appearances the previous season, he hit a similar .302/.353/.498 with a .372 wOBA and 134 wRC+. 2016, however, was a lost season for Pollock, who missed most of the year due to a broken elbow. Entering 2017, he’s only 29 years old and he appears to be healthy. Assuming good health, he’s certainly capable of putting up MVP numbers.

2. Aledmys Diaz has a better offensive season than Trea Turner

Much was made of Turner’s spectacular big league debut in 2016, and rightfully so. The rookie slashed .342/.370/.567 with 13 home runs and 33 steals in just 73 games and 324 plate appearances. Turner’s performance, however, was buoyed by an unsustainable .388 BABIP. While his skill set lends itself to higher-than-average BABIP’s, it’s expected to land somewhere closer to .350 in 2017, bringing his likely batting average down below .300. What’s more, his minor league track record suggests that he may not crack 15 home runs all year, despite nearly reaching that total in half a season like he did in 2016. Turner, 23, is one of the most exciting fantasy players around, especially since he’s eligible at shortstop, second base, and outfield. However, because substantial regression is expected, there’s another young shortstop in St. Louis who could easily be the superior offensive weapon in 2017 and beyond. Read the rest of this entry »