Archive for bold predictions

I’ve never done a mid-season check in on my bold predictions, but I’ve also never gotten a single one right, so there’s that. Without further self-deprecation, let’s take a look at where I stand on my preseason predictions.

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
Originally I had this pegged specifically for 120 runs, but the comment section told me Donaldson would be hitting fifth most of the season, despite my original thoughts. Since I’m a pretty easy going guy, I decided to make this a flexible post and included the 130 RBI possibility. The commenters were correct for the first week, but then after a bit of moving around, Donaldson has settled in at the two hole. At this point the Blue Jays have played 77 games and Donaldson has scored 67 runs and tallied 48 RBIs. Good thing I made this an “or” rather than an “and” post, as I’m about 50 percent confident Donaldson will actually score 120 runs. Given that neither Edwin Encarnacion or Jose Bautista are showing any sign of slowing down at ages 32 and 34 respectively, I’m optimistic I can get this one correct. Read the rest of this entry »

RotoGraphs has graciously (and, as we’ll soon learn, erroneously) allowed me to make bold predictions for the 2015 season. Last year, in the privacy of my own blog, I predicted Dan Haren would strike out fewer than seven batters-per-nine after notching an 8.0 K/9 in 2013. He finished the 2014 season with a 7.02 K/9. Needless to say, I’m looking for vengeance. So let’s do this! Right now!!!!

1. Giancarlo Stanton finishes outside the top 10… outfielders.

FanGraphs’ auction calculator, in its default settings, depicts Stanton as the third most expensive player behind Mike Trout and Joe Blanton Clayton Kershaw. He ranks second in average auction value in ESPN drafts. He’ll find his way to the disabled list again, and the BABIP gods will punish him en route, leaving him outside not only the top 10 overall but also the top 10 outfielders outright.

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My 2013 predictions failed me, as did my 2014, yet I’m still feeling good about this year! I don’t think we need to retread old ground too much, but for the uninitiated, I currently sit at 0-20 lifetime. Without further delay, lets get this over with here are my 10 bold predictions!

1. Josh Donaldson will score 120 runs (or post 130 RBI)
I’m shoving all in on Donaldson in Toronto. Presumably he’ll form a triumvirate of power and on-base skills with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion and will most likely hit in front of those two. Scoring 120 runs is a feat that has happened just four times since 2010 and represents a 27 run increase for Donaldson from this year. I thought about predicting Donaldson as a top-5 player, however he is already top-20 or 25. Not enough of a jump for me to call bold, so 120 runs it is! Quick edit, as Donaldson may hit fifth rather than second. If that is the case, expect him to score fewer runs, but boost his RBI total to the 130 plateau, something only three players have done since 2010.
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The word “bold” here reminds me of the interpretation for MVP. Where is the perfect bold line between too cautious and sheer lunacy? Clearly I tend to lean more towards lunacy as once again my predictions were way off. Sigh, oh well. In order to avoid any interpretation issues, I’ll be using Baseball Monster for comparison and ranking related predictions. My league settings will be Yahoo! with LF/CF/RF designations rather than the generic OF.

1. Drew Smyly will be more valuable than Doug Fister
Nope! Smyly is great against lefties, but right-handed hitters torch him. Even with his platoon struggles, Smyly posted a very useful 3.24 ERA in 153 innings pitched. Fister countered with an even better 2.41 ERA in 164 IP. Smyly did have more strikeouts, 133 to 98 and a better FIP/xFIP, but Fister’s 16 wins carried the day. 0-1
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Woof! That’s all there is to say about my preseason bold predictions as a whole. The idea was to take players at each position that I had ranked just outside starter territory in 12-team leagues who I thought could beat my ranking. Let’s break them down one by one.

Catcher – Josmil Pinto will be a top ten fantasy catcher.

The biggest problem with my Pinto projection was that I projected him for 450 PA. Pinto didn’t come close to that, finishing with just 194 PA because the Twins gave Kurt Suzuki 502 PA. The one thing my projection did get right was Pinto’s power as he hit 12 home runs in limited work. Had he maintained that pace and received the 450 PA I projected, he would have hit 16 home runs, which would have easily surpassed the 12 I projected. Pinto’s power would make him interesting if he could get regular playing time, but Suzuki is signed through 2016 in Minnesota. Read the rest of this entry »

Yes, I’m late to the Bold Predictions party. What else is new? I’m going to be late for my own funeral, guaranteed.

Anyway, last year’s bold predictions didn’t fare entirely well, as discussed here, but the author feels that .400 is within the realm of possibility this time around.

10. Khris Davis will hit 25 homers and steal 15 bases.
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You guys know I like to swing from the heels on these, so buckle up for my 10 bold predictions for this season. We can forget about my uber-platinum sombrero on last year’s predictions. It was a bad day that turned into a season long slump.

1. Drew Smyly will be more valuable than Doug Fister

This isn’t a knock on Fister, I’m just a believer in Smyly’s strikeout rate. Fister may end the season with more innings pitched, however in standard 5×5 leagues, Smyly will edge him in terms of raw value. I don’t expect Smyly’s 10.7% swinging strike rate to continue as a starter, however he should still be able to edge out Fister’s pedestrian strikeout rate.
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While they say “go big or go home,” these bold predictions tend to be a double-edged sword for us. We want to go bold, but we don’t want to be so outlandish that our predictions are unrealistic. We want to be right, but hedging our boldness only leads to the obligatory “these predictions aren’t so bold” comment which makes us feel shame for wimping out. I’m hoping to walk that fine line between wishful thinking and practical conjecture, but I tend to lean towards the outrageous, so I’m just going to have some fun here. Read the rest of this entry »

When people much smarter than myself, e.g. Jeff Zimmerman, get to be self deprecating over going 1-for-10, what does that make me? Time to see how well poorly I did. As a refresher, here are my 10 Bold Predictions from the preseason. We’ll pretend this is a double-header and I received 10 plate appearances, one for each prediction.

1. Paul Goldschmidt will go 30-20 while being the most valuable first baseman in 5×5
Close, but no cigar. No doubt Goldy posted an excellent season, but 36 home runs and 15 steals still isn’t quite 30-20. Given that Chris Davis out-performed Goldschmidt as the best first baseman, I can’t even call this half a point. We’re 0-1 thus far with a strikeout looking.
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Well, the 2013 fantasy baseball season has come to an end. I’ve raised a few flags (hope you did, too!), but now it’s time to go back to my preseason “bold predictions” and put my money where my mouth is (or was?).

Let’s see how I did:

10. Despite injury, Adam Eaton will still steal 40+ bases.
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