Al Melchior’s 2017 Bold Predictions – A Review

It’s hard to luck into a .300 batting average, but that is pretty much what happened with my bold predictions. Two of the three calls I got right — Jose Quintana’s high ERA and Nick Castellanos‘ admittance into the 25-homer club — could be at least partially explained by this season’s home run explosion. The remaining seven predictions did not age well, but they have given me new perspectives on several players, including Yuli Gurriel and Jean Segura.

1. Tom Koehler will be roughly as valuable as Matt Moore.

Moore lived down to expectations, but Koehler was still far less valuable than he was. Koehler’s slider, which was key to an extended run of success in 2016, was not an effective pitch for him in 2017. His O-Swing rate on the pitch dropped substantially, from 44.7 to 34.2 percent, and his slider strikeout rate went down, while his Iso went up. Those trends ultimately led to Koehler’s ouster from the Marlins’ rotation, though it provided him with a fresh start in the Blue Jays’ bullpen.

WRONG (0/1)

2. Jean Segura will top last season’s total of 20 home runs.

In a year where seemingly everyone was hitting for more power, Segura took a leap backward. His average flyball distance decreased from 321 feet in in 2016 to 307 feet this season, according to the Statcast data on Baseball Savant. Rather than topping 20 home runs for the second year in a row, Segura finished with 11 homers. He missed more than a month combined due to hamstring and ankle injuries, and maybe those played a role in his diminished power. Segura finished the season strong, bashing four home runs in September, so I have not given up on him as a future power source.

WRONG (0/2)

3. Blake Treinen will have more Roto value than Cam Bedrosian.

Treinen ranked 67th among relief-eligible pitchers on ESPN’s Player Rater, while Bedrosian ranked 114th, so score this one as a win. One of my concerns about Bedrosian going into this season had to do with the sustainability of his strikeout rate, and while he did improve his O-Swing rate, fewer strikes contributed to a 3.6 percentage point drop in K%.

While I can claim victory on this, in retrospect, it was a pretty silly prediction. Over the last two seasons, roughly two-thirds of opening day closers failed to spend the whole year in the role, and both Treinen and Bedrosian were early-season casualties. If I could have predicted that Treinen would subsequently get traded to a team where he became their best saves option, that would have been something. It would have been bolder (but also wrong) to predict that both would have actually kept their jobs all year.

CORRECT (1/3)

4. Jose Quintana will have his highest ERA since his 2012 rookie season.

Quintana had the highest ERA and lowest ERA+ of his career, so I could have gone even bolder on this prediction. Last season’s spike in home runs and hard contact were masked by a 79.0 percent strand rate, and this season, that mark regressed — and then some — to 71.4 percent. Not only should he strand more runners in 2018, but Quintana’s move to the National League agreed with him, as he threw more strikes and gave up fewer home runs.

CORRECT (2/4)

5. A.J. Reed will hit .260 with 20 home runs.

Reed spent nearly the entire season in the minors, and while he struck out more often, his overall production in Triple-A was not far behind his 2016 pace. This is more of a story about Gurriel. Through the first eight weeks of the season, his slash line was nearly a carbon copy of his 2016 line. However, over his final 96 games, Gurriel hit .316 with 14 home runs and 35 doubles and made hard contact at a 36.6 percent rate. Reed appears ready for a shot at a full-time big league job, but Gurriel should have bought himself some job security with this season’s performance.

VERY WRONG (2/5)

6. Chris Davis will be a top-eight first baseman.

I did get something right about Davis; he rebounded in terms of line drive rate and BABIP. What I did not foresee was a substantial increase in strikeout rate and a drop in his home run rate. Given that Davis’ hard contact rate and average flyball distance remained steady, I have to wonder if he was robbed of some homers or made long outs more frequently. His strikeout rate is concerning, but he could be a cheap source of power in 2018.

WRONG (2/6)

7. Patrick Corbin will get 200 strikeouts.

Corbin received the bump in innings that I anticipated, but with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate, he fell short of a career-high K-rate as well as the 200-strikeout threshold. The Diamondbacks’ lefty did throw more sliders, which should have helped his quest for 200 Ks, but it wasn’t quite enough. He finished with 178 strikeouts, which tied his previous high from 2013.

WRONG (2/7)

8. Jose Peraza won’t get 20 steals.

I wrote that Peraza might not finish with a .300 OBP, and while that turned out to be true, he still cracked the 20-steal mark. As in 2016, Peraza made 31 steal attempts, but he improved his efficiency just enough to increase his stolen base total from 21 to 23. It helped that, despite his .297 OBP and -0.2 WAR, Peraza made 518 plate appearances.

WRONG (2/8)

9. Charlie Blackmon won’t get 20 homers.

Rather than regressing to his prior home run rates, Blackmon built on last season’s total of 29 home runs. In finishing with 37 homers, Blackmon backed up his second straight power surge with an increase in his hard contact rate from 34.4 to 39.0 percent.

WRONG (2/9)

10. Nick Castellanos will hit 25 homers.

Castellanos gave back much of the progress he made on his barrel per batted ball rate, as it decreased from 14.4 to 10.7 percent (per Baseball Savant), but he still came through with 26 home runs. If he is to repeat as a 25-plus homer threat, Castellanos may need to maintain the improvement he made in his strikeout rate, which fell from 24.8 to 21.4 percent.

CORRECT (3/10)