Archive for ADP

No need to fret. The unofficial conductor, who is also the author of this post, does not expect the cabin to reach capacity. Not prior to April, at least.

Brett Lawrie’s time with any organization, not just the White Sox, was ticking away; more writing was scribbled on more walls with each passing year since his debut. So when the White Sox released Lawrie, the first thought on most fantasy owners’ minds was not Where will Lawrie end up? but, rather, When will Yoan Moncada get the call? Moncada, a consensus top-5 prospect, changed socks and is now the marquee name of the South Side’s now-promising future.

Yet one could argue Moncada’s not quite ready for the big show. After raking and running absolutely wild in High-A in 2016, Moncada graduated to Double-A and, well, his performance is open to interpretation. On one hand, his 11 home runs, nine stolen bases and .277/.379/.531 triple-slash in 207 plate appearances amounted to a batting line that was more than 50% better than the league. On the other hand, he struck out more than 30% of the time — and that lack of contact carried over into his Major League debut, during which he struck out in 12 of 20 PAs. The tools are immense, but, at 21, he could definitely use some polish, and the White Sox have no incentive to rush him along.

Allow me to (re)introduce you to Tyler Saladino.

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Playing time can make or break a baseball player’s fantasy value. An elite player may not finish above replacement level if he suffers an injury and plays only half the season, and a lackluster player could finish above replacement level simply by playing every single day. This is all intuitive, and the fantasy community generally approaches these kinds of things rationally. In other words, most players are appropriately valued, outside of the market inefficiencies that inevitably warp player values.

One-dimensional speedsters — dudes who steal a bunch of bases and do little else — are much harder to peg. Their value is tied up primarily in one category, as stolen bases (SBs) do not directly correlate with other categories the way home runs would with runs and RBI, for example. The issue becomes all the more confounding when one considers the contemporaneous scarcity of SBs relative to home runs. There’s more to value than just SBs and plate appearances (PAs), but the fact of the matter is the two statistics by themselves correlate very strongly with a player’s end-of-season (EOS) value (which, here, are informed by Razzball’s Player Rater).

In the last five years, baseball has seen 75 player-seasons of 30-plus SBs — 15 steals a year on average, a trend that didn’t fundamentally change in 2016 (although that doesn’t mean SBs aren’t scarce). A simple linear regression of SBs and PAs, the latter of which serves as a proxy for other counting stats such as runs and RBI, against EOS value produces a remarkable 0.71 adjusted R²:

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The fantasy community is down on Justin Upton. I get it, but it’s a little strange to me given our collective penchant for recency bias. Upton had a monster second half and finished the season an almost-perfect replica of his usual self. (The operative qualifier being “almost.” We’ll get to that in a second.) Sure, it was a rocky year, but hey, Joey Votto had one, too. Dude was batting .213 with a 27 percent strikeout rate (K%) through May…

Right, so Upton was an almost-perfect replica of himself. In a vacuum, his production looks nearly identical to his typical annual accomplishment, down to nearly every statistic except for his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In my investigation of his woes, I noticed his uncharacteristically low infield hit rate (IFH%). Here’s a list of hitters with higher infield hit rates than Justin Upton in 2016:

• Salvador Perez
• Kendrys Morales
• Albert Pujols
• One hundred and thirty five other players not surnamed Ortiz, Mauer, Seager, Granderson, Cabrera, Votto or Kemp

Yes, Upton ranked among the bottom 6 percent of hitters in terms of infield hits. If there’s a single bone to pick about Upton’s season — well, aside from the insane volatility — it’s that his BABIP failed to get back on track, continuing to linger at a league-average mark. It seems a trend has emerged; accordingly, it’s easy to accept said trend as a new normal, as a resignation of Upton’s fifth tool.

I’m here to make the classic* Infield Hit Rate Defense, or IHRD, as it’s known in the infield hit community.**

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Robbie Ray is already shaping up to be one of 2017’s most contentious starting pitchers headed into draft day. (This isn’t even my first time writing about him in the last half-year.) His 28-percent strikeout rate (K%) and 3.45 xFIP scream of an elite starter, but his 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, sustained during more than 170 innings pitched, seem to say otherwise.

Analysts and laymen who have expressed optimism about Ray have done so in regard to his alleged hittability. That 1.47 WHIP didn’t come from nowhere: his .352 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) got him there. You’ll hear a variety of arguments: he struggles on his third time through the zone; he lacks a quality third, or maybe even second, pitch; and so on. I’m not here to argue the validity of those sentiments.

I want to talk exclusively about Ray’s BABIP. Well, his sinker, too. And maybe even his strand rate (LOB%)… But mostly his BABIP. Please, have a seat. I don’t want to fluster you.

Ray’s .352 BABIP in 2016 was the second-worst of the last 15 years. That’s out of 1,281 individual player-seasons posted by qualified starting pitchers. His BABIP was historically bad — strange, you’d think, for a pitcher who has quickly demonstrated a lot of promise. So, I want to approach this whole BABIP thing in a vacuum. Let’s just look at the facts — not even alternative facts, but real facts!

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Around this time last year (edit: actually, it was more like sometime in 2014), Eno Sarris introduced the Arsenal Score. It was, and still is, a novel concept: for every pitcher, evaluate each of his pitches based strictly on their strikeout- and ground ball-inducing tendencies. Each pitch would be evaluated relative to its contemporaries — in other words, Corey Kluber’s slider would be compared to all other sliders in the league.

I’ll speak for Eno when I say the original Arsenal Scores weren’t meant to be especially rigorous. They received some flak for being mathematically inaccurate — to which I say, it doesn’t really matter. Originally, Eno calculated separate Z-scores for the ground ball rate (GB%) and swinging strike rate (SwStr%) — called “Z-BIP” and “Z-Whiff,” respectively, in the results to follow — of each pitch for every pitcher. The aggregate Z-scores — two Z-scores times X number of pitches — comprise the full Arsenal Score.

This time around, I propose a few tweaks:

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Last week, Paul Sporer reviewed NFBC average draft position (ADP) data. The week prior, I posted 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings using Steamer Projections and the FVARz approach to valuation.

With our powers combined, here I will depict how current value and draft position match up:

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With early ADP data somewhat unreliable this early in the spring, most of us have been leaning on the numbers coming in from recent NFBC drafts, both real and mock. However, the draft value of certain players and positions in those leagues is often skewed due to the inability to make trades and the ADP numbers aren’t necessarily a true reflection of how drafts go in the “everyman’s” world.

That is why I have created something called the Mock Draft Army.

For those who haven’t heard of it, you can click the link for details, but the sum up is this — with a need for better ADP numbers and early mock drafts lacking in full, reliable participation, I have put together a series of mock drafts made up of a rotating group of 20-30 fantasy writers who participate alongside their readers, Twitter followers and fantasy radio audience. Each draft has anywhere from 6-10 writers and not only do they provide us with some new-look ADP data, but the chat rooms offer a nice, open forum for player discussions, debates, and a chance for readers to ask some of their favorite writers for some personal insight on both players and draft strategy. Thursday night was the Mock Draft Army’s second draft of the season, a 12-team mixed league for a standard 5×5 roto league, and here’s how it went down… Read the rest of this entry »

What I love about this series, this look at each team’s depth chart, is that we unearth a number of position battles that might not be on the radar of the casual fantasy player. In this case, the Arizona Diamondbacks, the infield appears to be well set heading into spring training. First, second and third base are locked down; as is behind the plate. But a deeper look brings us to a report on the team’s website that informs us that the starting shortstop job is actually up for grabs. The casual fantasy player will look at the depth chart and assume that Didi Gregorius owns the gig. After all, he’s the big name and didn’t Arizona trade a highly-touted Trevor Bauer to get him? That they did, but according to GM Kevin Towers, spring time for the Diamondbacks will feature an open competition between Gregorius and Chris Owings and the winner gets a place on the field come Opening Day. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 88

The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is now live! Jason Collette joins Eno Sarris to preview the St. Louis Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs.

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us any fantasy questions you have that we may answer on our next episode.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed.

Thanks to Ian Miller aka Teen Archer, for the new intro music

Approximately 66 min of joyous analysis.

FSTA draft results mentioned several times in the show

By what we’ve learned over the last several year, we know that the closer’s role tends to be an extremely volatile position. Mental breakdowns, mechanical issues, whatever the case may be, we’ve seen numerous guys move in and out of the job on a variety of teams. However, there have also been some stalwarts; guys with strong job security that give you little reason to be concerned. More often than not, they notch the save and if they struggle, you never worry that they’re going to lose their job. Some of them are no-brainers, like what Mariano Rivera was. But others we’ve seen, no matter how poor they are pitching or how frail they may be (I’m looking at you Huston Street and Fernando Rodney), they still seem to stay right where they are. Maybe they lose an opportunity here and there, but if they’re healthy, they’ve always seemed to slide back into the job. So why, after 101 saves in the past two season….yes, that’s right, 101…does Jim Johnson get no love? Read the rest of this entry »