Archive for ADP

If you’ve been following me over on Twitter, then you’ll know that there’s nothing I love more during the offseason than a good ol’ mock draft. I love researching players and setting myself up with my own set of rankings and Draft Day depth charts, but one of the best tools for in-draft decisions is understanding public opinion.

It’s one of those rare instances in life where what everyone else thinks does, in fact, matter. Does no one seem to believe in this guy, so I can easily wait a few more rounds for him (i.e. my earlier Travis Wood dilemma)? Is he a recently outed sleeper whose public opinion has grown more mainstream thus forcing me to take him earlier than I had originally thought? These are always questions we ask ourselves during drafts and given that they usually hit us when we’re under the gun and have no more than a minute and a half (usually) to make that decision, knowing the answers ahead of time make it all the more easy to think and act on the fly.

And since we’re still talking starting pitchers over here this week and mock draft season is just getting underway — I’ve actually done six already, if you can believe that — I thought that looking at how pitching is already being viewed by many would be a good start. You’ll get a jump on things in the early goings and it also might help you make some of those tough keeper decisions you probably have sitting in front of you. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s so tempting when discussing the Reds rotation to gloss over the front end in favor of Aroldis Chapman. He’s definitely the dominant storyline with this team, but whether he becomes a dominant starter is far less clear. Thankfully for the Reds, they aren’t counting on him to lead the rotation, just to fall in behind Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, who are underrated as a top-of-the-rotation pair. There are a few pairs I like better – Clayton Kershaw/ Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg/Gio Gonzalez chiefly among them – but the Reds are hardly wanting for quality with those two.

Projected Rotation

Johnny Cueto
Mat Latos
Aroldis Chapman
Homer Bailey
Bronson Arroyo

Waiting in the Wings

Mike Leake
Tony Cingrani
Armando Galarraga Read the rest of this entry »

Every year we develop fantasy crushes. We are all susceptible to them and no one can fault you for latching onto a player whom you think is going to have a breakout season. Usually it’s some highly-touted rookie ready to burst onto the scene who becomes everyone’s darling and sometimes it’s a third or fourth-year player whom you’ve watched as he learned the MLB ropes and things are, in your opinion, about to click. And then there’s Allen Craig. Read the rest of this entry »

For all the years that I’ve been playing fantasy baseball, I’ve never really understood the idea of punting saves. Not that I don’t understand the concept, but that I don’t understand the rationale behind thinking that it’s a good strategy. You load up on starters with the hope of locking up wins and strikeouts while doing your best to stay competitive in WHIP and ERA. Perfectly viable strategy, right? But what about the fact that Wins is, more or less, an arbitrary category and while your guy goes seven strong and exits with the lead, some clown of a set-up man comes in, walks the leadoff guy and then serves up a two-run shot to tie the game. A great game for your starter, for sure, but you make no advancement in a category you’ve supposedly built your team to excel in. Read the rest of this entry »

Through the first 10 rounds of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft, a draft for a single-catcher league, we saw a total of eight backstops come off the board. In an effort to see how our picks matched up with public opinion, we’ve been comparing the results to ADP found on both Mock Draft Central (MDC) and the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). However, given how unreliable MDC data is right now due to small sample sizes and the fact that they don’t differentiate between one and two-catcher league mocks, we’re basically casting that ADP data aside and just matching up with that from the NFBC, a two-catcher league draft. With the current depth at the position, it should have been safe to assume that the top backstops would go a bit earlier in our draft than in the NFBC, however, in looking back at the comparisons, that was not the case. In fact, save for everyone agreeing that Buster Posey was a consensus late-first round pick, nothing went as expected. Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, Eno Sarris posted another installment of the RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — Rounds 11 through 15. You had the usual opportunity to comment on picks that you liked or didn’t like and while your silence with regard to my selections tells me that no one thought any of mine were either reaches or wasted picks, I would still like to do a little crowdsourcing here and find out where everyone stands on particular players and where they are going in drafts from now through the start of the 2013 season. Welcome to Bargain or Bust. Read the rest of this entry »

With a fair amount of attention paid to my Michael Bourn man-crush piece and so many of you saying how you prefer to grab power early and wait on speed, I decided to put your methodology into action and see where it took me. In another industry mock draft that took place just last night, I painfully resisted the urge to take Bourn, picked around the available speed and made a few different choices. While I cannot divulge the full results of the mock draft out of respect for the site that will be using it as part of its upcoming draft kit, I can discuss a few things in relation to my selections and this particular topic. Read the rest of this entry »

With fantasy football coming to a close, no NHL and limited interest (for me, at least) in the NBA, mock draft season for fantasy baseball is in full swing. While some might think it early, now is probably the best time to start gauging interest in some of the players you were hoping to target this year. One player in particular that I am watching is Cleveland second baseman Jason Kipnis. I owned him in several leagues last year and would like to pick him up again for this season. His 14 home runs and 31 stolen bases should easily put him in the top 10 second basemen discussion, but with a .257 average and a brutal collapse, relatively speaking, in the second half, the hope is that his price tag won’t be too inflated. Read the rest of this entry »

I was looking over Ben Duronio’s 10 Bold Predictions the other day and while I may disagree with some of his calls, nothing inspired me to put pen to paper (fingers to keyboard?) quite like his last prediction that Chris Iannetta “puts it all together” this year.  I’m sure there are a number of my predictions that people will criticize and I’m happy to see it, but to me, Iannetta has been one of the most overvalued catchers in fantasy over the years and I don’t see a move to the Angels being the answer for him.

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We see it all too often in fantasy — a former superstar and usual top pick ends up on the decline and still gets drafted or traded for value based solely on name and former reputation.  Maybe some people are anticipating and hoping for a return to the glory years.  Maybe some people are just fans and can’t let go.  Whatever the reason may be, the player’s value is over-inflated on draft day and, more often than not, a complete disappointment by season’s end.  With a top five ranking amongst catchers and an overall ADP of 79.64, Joe Mauer seems like a candidate who fits this description.

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