2016 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Last week, Paul Sporer reviewed NFBC average draft position (ADP) data. The week prior, I posted 2016 Fantasy Baseball Rankings using Steamer Projections and the FVARz approach to valuation.

With our powers combined, here I will depict how current value and draft position match up:

Notes:

• The last column depicts the differential between NFBC’s ADP (12/28) and the position-adjusted Steamer Projections (12/14) in elevating shades of red and green.
• Red = ADP value earlier than projections suggest
• Green = Positive cost of ownership relative to ADP

A few contingencies out of the way first:

• Some players Steamer just doesn’t project as high as others (see ZiPS’ bullish Kyle Schwarber projection). Some players Steamer projects much higher than others (Jose Reyes in Colorado). Keep plate appearance totals in mind. Buster Posey and Kyle Schwarber have lower PA totals than I would project. Steamer projects Jose Reyes to have 100 AB more than last year.
• Steamer projects 65 IP and 28 saves for known closers as well as 6 saves for possible closers (let’s just say). Instead, I used RotoChamp’s projected saves totals, which is more realistic.
• I used top 200 NFBC ADP. I still highlighted the next 24 players (from Josh Harrison to Eddie Rosario in the ADP Differential column) in green since they provide projected top 200 value.

Green:

• While others irrationally (less irrational these days) shoot for high impact rookies, you can wind up with solid veterans: Victor Martinez, Melky Cabrera, Matt Holliday, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, David Ortiz and Adrian Beltre should all provide value beyond their ADP if they stay healthy…potentially 50 spots higher than their ADP as depicted here.
• Same goes for pitching. There are a few veterans (Wei-Yin Chen, John Lackey, Francisco Liriano) and possible health concerns (Michael Pineda, Masahiro Tanaka, Yu Darvish, Hisashi Iwakuma) that can provide great value.
• Targets:
  • Jason Heyward: I am not sure why his ADP is well under his projections. Maybe quite a bit of drafts took place prior to his agreement with the Cubs. He provides solid balance across all five categories and should provide haughtier counting stats in Chicago in that lineup.
  • I would target one of the Utility guys unless Evan Gattis/OF, Kendrys Morales/1B, Victor Martinez/1B or Miguel Sano/3B is eligible at other positions, in which case I would target three-to-four based on their draft position. Imagine the counting stats associated with Evan Gattis/OF, David Ortiz/U, Victor Martinez/CI and Kendrys Morales/1B? I might skip Sano this early, but according to this ADP, in a 15 team league, you can draft these options as follows:
    • Victor Martinez: round 13
    • David Ortiz: round 7
    • Evan Gattis: round 13
    • Kendrys Morales: round 9
    • Miguel Sano: round 4
  • The middle infielders showing up here result from a position-adjustment within the rankings, however, note which MI out-project their ADP (Josh Harrison, Jose Reyes, Dustin Pedroia, Daniel Murphy, Ben Zobrist) relative to those who are perhaps over-drafted…

Red:

• There are a number of NAMES at middle infield who are being over-drafted: Addison Russell, Corey Seager, Ian Desmond and Troy Tulowitzki all show up 100 spots higher than their projected value.
• Closer projections are not in line with the draft position so either start or hop on the trend during your drafts.
• I do think there are a sundry of names under-valued by Steamer: Mookie Betts (although I’ve since seen his PA projection increase), J.D. Martinez, A.J. Pollock, Josh Donaldson and Carlos Correa among them. These are elite options that should be drafted closer to their ADP.

In addition to possible sleepers and “busts,”  — as it’s sorted currently by ADP — this matrix can help you debate between players around the same draft position. If Matt Harvey and David Price are both available around that draft position, David Price is projected higher. Or heck, you can go with Carlos Carrasco a round later who can provide identical value to Matt Harvey (as you can see in the hidden column, titled “PosAdj” for the position-adjusted 5×5 fantasy value).

If you prefer to sort by actual value (“Rank”), then use the ADP differential to know whether you have more time to draft the player under evaluation i.e. if you value Billy Hamilton in the top 40 based on his SB total, know that you can probably land him up to two rounds later based on his ADP. Right, Mike Podhorzer?!