No Love For Jim Johnson?
By what we’ve learned over the last several year, we know that the closer’s role tends to be an extremely volatile position. Mental breakdowns, mechanical issues, whatever the case may be, we’ve seen numerous guys move in and out of the job on a variety of teams. However, there have also been some stalwarts; guys with strong job security that give you little reason to be concerned. More often than not, they notch the save and if they struggle, you never worry that they’re going to lose their job. Some of them are no-brainers, like what Mariano Rivera was. But others we’ve seen, no matter how poor they are pitching or how frail they may be (I’m looking at you Huston Street and Fernando Rodney), they still seem to stay right where they are. Maybe they lose an opportunity here and there, but if they’re healthy, they’ve always seemed to slide back into the job. So why, after 101 saves in the past two season….yes, that’s right, 101…does Jim Johnson get no love?
I did a mock draft for another web site’s draft guide Monday and was hoping to start a bit of a closer’s run down in the 11th round. Only five other closers were taken (Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Greg Holland, Aroldis Chapman and Koji Uehara) at the time so I figured now was as good a time as any. When I took Johnson, there was a slight rumble in the chat room and then Joe Nathan quickly went after him, followed by Trevor Rosenthal, Glen Perkins and Sergio Romo. Did I err in my choice? I don’t believe I did. And when I see all nine of those guys and Rafael Soriano sitting ahead of him in the current NFBC ADP rankings, I still feel like I made the right move.
What more does Johnson have to do to prove himself right now? His last two years as the Orioles closer have been outstanding for him and his fantasy owners. We’ve already mentioned the 101 saves, but there’s obviously much more. How about that substantial increase in his strikeout rate? Jumping from a 5.37 K/9 to a 7.17 K/9 is huge for him. Sure, you’d love to see a double-digit K-rate there, but he’s simply not that type of pitcher, and that’s okay. So long as he gets the job done.
Did his ERA rise last season? Yes, it did. Not by a lot, but it did increase from a 2.49 to a 2.94. Ideal? No, but still more than just merely acceptable. Many will point to his ERA outperforming his FIP and xFIP, but that’s to be expected from a pitcher with such a high ground ball rate (58.0-percent). Not to mention, that unusually high .327 BABIP he was saddled with. Things should certainly turn towards his favor with the move to Oakland as the defense behind him should be stronger. Maybe the A’s downgrade a bit going from Manny Machado to Josh Donaldson, but the rest of the infield should do right by him.
And speaking of that move to Oakland, how about those park dimensions? Sure, Johnson’s HR/FB spiked to 11.4-percent last year, but he still only gave up five long balls all year. Now away from that bandbox called Camden Yards, it’s going to be just a wee bit more difficult to put one over the wall. But in addition to that, there’s also the immense foul ground with which he has to work. If you’ve ever been to the Oakland Coliseum, then you know that you could be sitting in the front row even with the first base bag and you’re still miles away from the action.
Simply put, there’s plenty to love about Johnson and his move to Oakland. His last two seasons as the Orioles’ closer have produced outstanding numbers for fantasy owners, and the times where he has faltered, the damage has not been substantial and there has been no concern over him being yanked from the role. Heading to Oakland, he’s got a more pitcher-friendly ballpark and better defense behind him. He might not have the same stuff as Chapman or Kimbrel, but if you’re looking for security at a position that has very little, then I would much rather have him than trendy guys like Rosenthal or Jansen who are no lock to hold their jobs all year.
Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on a variety of websites. In addition to his work here, you can also find him at his site, RotobuzzGuy.com, Fantasy Alarm, RotoWire and Mock Draft Central. Follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for more direct questions or comments, email him at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com
Why would you rather have JJ over Kenley Jansen? TIA
While Jansen clearly has better stuff and a stronger K-rate, I have some reservations regarding his job security. He wasn’t even fully trusted as early as last year and while Brandon League wasn’t going to ever take back the role from him, a few bumps in the roads this year could easily push Brian Wilson and Chris Perez, two guys who have held full-time closer jobs in the recent past, into a possible run as the Dodgers’ ninth-inning man. Not saying it’s going to happen, but the likelihood is certainly there.
It’s not that Jim Johnson won’t be a good closer, it’s just closers are where you can gain ground with Ks. So why waste an early pick (for a closer) on one of the lowest K-rate closers in the game?
I’d rather go with Perkins or Rosenthal; surer bets for +10K/9. The saves themselves are largely unpredictable.
Except Perkins only had 21 more Ks last year than Johnson and 14 less saves. Also, saves are more predictible than wins, seeing as any team with an entrenched closer will get his at least 25/30 SVs, but even the best pitcher on a bad team can missout on wins (i.e. Cliff Lee 2 years ago). Also, what round would you be taking Perkins or Rosenthal? If you can get Johnson 3/4 rounds later the opportunity cost alone makes it a win.
At the end of the season, roto category winners total in saves about 100, in strikeouts about 1,000. While you are fretting over whether 20 Ks will lose your team a point in the K category, think about the number of points you could gain in the Saves category with an extra 15. Johnson is getting big money and has a stronger probability of keeping the closer role than 60% or more than the other MLB opening day closers. The O.co ballpark effect (as well as other ALWest ballparks vs. AL East parks ) may have a stronger positive impact than the negative impact of inferioir infielders. I wouldn’t advise counting on Johnson to save 50 for a third straight year, but he looks like a strong bet for 40. And Saves are the best return on investment closers provide.
The Orioles had +45 UZR from their infielders last year, and about +15 outside of Machado. Hardy and Flaherty are good defenders. I don’t think there’s a better defensive infield in baseball, but the Orioles are at least top 5. If they give alot of playing time to Weeks, they may slip. I don’t think you can say the same about the Athletics.
So has rotographs been renamed closergraphs?
Last week was it renamed startingpitchergraphs? No, because it was clearly one week devoted to a position. Did you really not get that?
another though i have about jj is that will jj get the high number of save chances in oakland that he had in baltimore? in 2012 the O’s infamously had an insane record in 1-run games, which i’m sure helps pad the stats for games that ended in a save opportunity.
i don’t have the information handy, but it’d be interesting to factor in how many games oakland had last year that ended in a save opp. using what is available during my lunch break, the A’s closer last year, Grant Balfour had 38 saves and 3 blown saves. so, again, with minimal resources/time, let’s say that the A’s had 41 games that produced a save opportunity. i know other rp’s got saves, but their blown saves numbers due to them being set up men are all out of whack.
jj had 50 saves and 9 blown saves last year. that’s a rough difference of 18 save opportunities that jj would “lose” in oakland (yes, this questions the average save opps for both teams over a larger sample size as well as if it makes sense to project save opps for RP in general) but my point is that there’s an argument that his whip (high 1.20s) and era (2.50+) will stay the same or possibly go down, his k rate is what it is, but if you’re investing in jj or putting value into him due to his high save numbers, that is one thing that is likely not to follow him from baltimore to oakland.
as such, i would rank rosenthal, romo, and soriano (similar counting stats, but in my opinion higher opps for saves) higher with perkins a close 5th.
2012
BAL – 73
OAK – 64
2013
BAL – 84
OAK – 67
The difference between Machado and Donaldson is nothing compared to the difference between Hardy and Lowrie.
However, knowing this, Melvin may replace Lowrie with Punto in the 9th (and perhaps Moss with Barton).
Seeing as how I have a $1 Jim Johnson that I’m trying to move this offseason, I really appreciate articles like this. Keep up the good work!
And I think you’re absolutely right about the move to Oakland being a very positive thing.
While I don’t necessarily disagree with your conclusion, I do think you have ignored a risk that comes with Johnson’s move from Baltimore to Oakland. Unlike the Orioles, the A’s have established pitchers in their bullpen with numbers that seem at least as good if not better than Johnson — Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook.
In Baltimore, Johnson was given the closer role by default. While he doesn’t profile as a typical closer, the rest of the pen was poor enough to give him an opportunity. In 2011 the Oriole bullpen has the second highest ERA and third highest FIP in the AL and had blown 19 saves in 51 chances. The A’s bullpen last year, excluding Balfour, still put up some of the best numbers in the league.
Mitigating that concern is speculation in Oakland that Beane traded for Johnson to keep the value down on Doolittle and Cook for arbitration purposes. The thought is he’ll save more in future years for his young, cost-controlled relievers than he will spend for one year of Johnson. That would afford Johnson some protection through the trade deadline, and if he is traded, it would seem likely he’d still serve as a close, though perhaps not in as favorable a ballpark.
Stronger defense behind him? Really? Better than the record setting defense last year that was the Orioles? And does WHIP not bear importance (1.28)?
we arent even 2 weeks into the season and johnson already lost the job. enjoy last place in your fantasy league.