Starting Pitcher Chart – May 14th, 2026

- Daily SP Chart archive
- 2-Start podcast episode
- SP Rankings (last update: 4/27 | next: wk of 6/1)
Welcome to the Daily SP Chart, click here if you’re new to get an idea of what I’m doing with these rankings.
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and recently added opponent’s K% (also v. SP handedness), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
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I messed around with some color-coding but I can’t promise that it’ll be consistent.
Dollander has got me breaking my “No Rockies Pitchers” credo. He still hasn’t figured out Coors (because no one does), but he’s surviving there enough to pick some selective home starts so far. His worst outing (6 ER v. ATL) was super easy to skip given how well the Braves have hit this year and most didn’t have him for his 4 IP/4 ER debut so those on the Dollander Train could reasonably have a 1.60 ERA and 39 Ks in 33.7 IP. Even if you got cute and ran the ATL outing, you’re still likely doing fine with him. He has a standout swing-and-miss profile with a 106 STF+ (17th in MLB), running the same 4 pitches to both sides at varying frequencies: four-seamer 37% total, sinker 24%, slider 15%, and changeup 11% (that’s the hierarchy v. both sides, too) and a show-me curve at 8%. It’s fueled a 26% K rate which helps him survive his 9% BB rate.
Before digging in, I wondered if maybe his BB rate trended higher at home with the idea being that he has to nibble more given how dangerous it is to pitch in Coors, but that isn’t happening at all. He’s toting just a 7% mark at home and an 11% on the road. Walks have always been part of his game as he’s never had a stop below 9% and was at 11% during his 98 IP debut last year, equal home and away, meaning I don’t think he has earned the 7% at home as a skill change and if/when it moves back to 9%+, it will likely cut him down to half a starter as primarily a road-only guy. I’m happy to run him at PIT even with them doing very well versus righties this year, but I’m a little skeptical on slamming his 2-step v. TEX/at ARI next week. He runs worse versus lefties (4% K-BB) and TEX will likely bring at least 5 to Coors. That start could really go south. The upshot is that the Rockies have shown that they’ll let him go when he’s rolling so he could drop the hammer on ARI with a 6-7 IP gem. If you can’t afford a likely 1-up, 1-down where the latter could smother former, then don’t chase this. The downside is something like a 10 IP week with poor ratios and 8-10 Ks and then upside is a potential gem week of 12+ IP with great ratios and 12+ Ks.
- Prielipp out, Zebby in — not starting him anywhere until we see any advancement on his HR issues
- Luzardo has been so frustratingly inconsistent this year with 4 Duds, 3 excellent outings, and 1 best described as “meh” (4.7 IP/1 ER at CHC). He’s had a heavy home/road split with all 4 Duds at home, but so is his best start of the year (7 scoreless v. SFG) so I wouldn’t read into that as a start/sit mechanic. Despite the overwhelming frustration from him this year, I just can’t see sitting him with that 24% K-BB. Since 2015, there 65 instances of a 24% K-BB in at least 130 IP and there were only 4 seasons with a 4.00+ ERA and only 2 topped a 1.20 WHIP. He just can’t stay this bad with these skills.
- Griffin has been excellent in his return to the States and catches the Reds at a low point – they’re 30th vL in the last 2 weeks.
- I bumped Montero to a 3-x when updating the MIN SP change. I do have some concerns about his 13% K-BB, but that NYM lineup has been so bad and is without Lindor, Alvarez, Polanco, and Robert, too.
- We’ve seen 1 good, 1 bad from Canning so while I am a fan, I’m being careful against MIL here. I miiight run him in 12s.
- Avoiding ATL as much as I can but I was encouraged by Brown’s 4 no-hit innings in his first start of the year.
| Rk | PITCHER | Team | Opponent | 10 | 12 | 15+ | IP | ERA | WHIP | K% | OPP K% | opp wOBA RK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nolan McLean | NYM | v. DET | x | x | x | 45.1 | 2.78 | 0.90 | 33% | 22% | 12 |
| 2 | Chris Sale | ATL | v. CHC | x | x | x | 49 | 2.20 | 0.88 | 29% | 21% | 1 |
| 3 | Kyle Harrison | MIL | v. SDP | x | x | x | 33.2 | 2.41 | 1.22 | 29% | 23% | 27 |
| 4 | Chase Burns | CIN | v. WSN | x | x | x | 47 | 2.11 | 1.04 | 26% | 21% | 15 |
| 5 | Jesús Luzardo | PHI | at BOS | x | x | x | 43.2 | 5.98 | 1.40 | 30% | 22% | 8 |
| 6 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | v. SFG | x | x | x | 35.2 | 4.79 | 1.35 | 28% | 21% | 28 |
| 7 | Kris Bubic | KCR | at CHW | x | x | x | 46.1 | 3.50 | 1.17 | 25% | 24% | 4 |
| 8 | Ranger Suarez | BOS | v. PHI | x | x | x | 39 | 2.77 | 0.95 | 22% | 22% | 21 |
| 9 | Foster Griffin | WSN | at CIN | x | x | x | 46.2 | 2.12 | 1.03 | 22% | 27% | 20 |
| 10 | Chase Dollander | COL | at PIT | x | x | x | 43 | 3.35 | 1.19 | 26% | 22% | 4 |
| 11 | Landen Roupp | SFG | at LAD | x | x | 43.2 | 3.09 | 1.10 | 29% | 21% | 2 | |
| 12 | Carmen Mlodzinski | PIT | v. COL | x | x | 40 | 4.50 | 1.45 | 23% | 25% | 9 | |
| 13 | MIN | v. MIA | 19 | 3.32 | 1.00 | 27% | 23% | 16 | ||||
| 14 | Keider Montero | DET | at NYM | x | x | x | 39.2 | 3.18 | 0.96 | 19% | 21% | 30 |
| 15 | Griffin Canning | SDP | at MIL | x | 9.1 | 6.75 | 1.61 | 29% | 20% | 11 | ||
| 16 | Mike Burrows | HOU | v. SEA | x | 44.2 | 5.04 | 1.48 | 22% | 24% | 7 | ||
| 17 | Ben Brown | CHC | at ATL | 29.2 | 1.82 | 0.91 | 24% | 21% | 1 | |||
| 18 | Michael McGreevy | STL | at ATH | 45.1 | 2.18 | 0.86 | 20% | 21% | 6 | |||
| 19 | Anthony Kay | CHW | v. KCR | 35 | 4.89 | 1.57 | 15% | 22% | 15 | |||
| 20 | Braxton Garrett | MIA | at MIN | 21% | 11 | |||||||
| 21 | Luis Castillo | SEA | at HOU | 38.1 | 6.57 | 1.62 | 21% | 22% | 5 | |||
| 22 | Jacob Lopez | ATH | v. STL | 35.1 | 6.11 | 1.75 | 17% | 18% | 14 |
Intro
The chart includes their performance for 2026, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues – essentially a shallow, medium, deep league setup – and then a note about some, most, or all depending on the day. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s a much riskier stream for those spots.
These are general recommendations for standard 5×5 roto leagues, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. I usually won’t have much to write about aces who are locked into our rotations. If you want to discuss someone further, please feel free to leave a comment. I usually do a few sweeps of the comments before game time in case there are time-sensitive questions.
Thanks for the very helpful comments on Dollander. I’ve been boldly running with him so far in 10s, but will keep an eye on his BB% to assess future decisions.
Zebby, not Prielipp
As noted in the comments section of the Roto Riteup, Zebby was lit up his 1st 3 starts but has been better his last 5 starts.
HIs line over his last 5:
27.0 IP, 2.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 28 K, 7 BB
Still a high WHIP and against teams with a combined .466 winning percentage (not going to take the time to figure out if they’re good or bad offenses).
His last start was a IL/PCL crossover start in Las Vegas against the Aviators so it was at elevation. He went 8 IP and gave up 10 hits and 2 BB against 5 K and did well against everyone except recent A’s callup, Henry Bolte. Bolte went 4 for 4 against Matthews with 2 bombs and 2 2B (plus a triple in the 9th against a reliever)
I don’t know, debating a stream here. The Fish don’t scare me and he has a strong wind blowing in from RF
Color coding is a nice add and makes it easy to quickly glance and bucket guys
Wind at 10+:
PIT – out to L center at 13
MIN – in from L at 18
ATL – out to center at 11
Some definite rain issues today:
NYM – 88% at 1st pitch, 46% by game end
BOS – 97% at 1st pitch, 77% by game end, Philly’s only trip to Boston and this is the last game of the series and there is no off day tomorrow. The Phils go from Boston to Pittsburgh and the Sox to Atlanta tomorrow. Have to think they try everything to get this in and avoid having to squeeze in a game later in the year but it’s not hard to envision delays if they do play.
Typo on MIN – wind is blowing in from R, not L
Was sort of surprised to see the Cubs as a top offense, but it looks like everyone is at least average on offense or above. Not much thump, but an absence of weak links.
I just lost lefty MIA SP Snelling to the IL for likely Tommy John! I will definitely check-out lefty Luzardo, as long as new skipper Donny-B keeps running him out to the mound.
Great new additions Paul, many thanks!
Question: For those of us in weekly leagues (who may have inadvertently opted to stream Roupp vs #1 wOBA Atlanta) have you considered providing us with a weekly lookahead focused on guys facing say the top six and bottom six wOBA teams?
Paul and Justin do a 2-start podcast every week. There is also a Probables Grid under Roster Resource
Well I was right about lefties being the undoing of Dollander, I just should’ve been a bit more leery of PIT’s lefty brigade. I don’t think I’d have reco’d a sit, but I might’ve scraped off an “x”. Funny thing is I faded someone else earlier this yr v. PIT bc of their struggles vL
Dollander was pulled with “right arm tightness” which is not great. Velo was down 1.3 mph on the fastball and at least 0.8 mph on 4 of his 5 pitches.
So probably less about the Pirates and more about pitching being bad for elbows. . . .
Oh damn, ya def can’t predict that. I just saw he got clocked while I was streaming and assumed it was all bad work, not injury. Injury def worse!
You jinxed Keider.
I knoowww, should’ve just left the 2-x! 🤣 My Tigers are such a brutal watch right now