Starting Pitcher Chart – September 22nd, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 22nd Starter Chart
PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Zack Wheeler PHI BAL x x x 3.13 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 22% K-BB .319 – 12th First to 200 IP and will likely be 1 of 4-5 to do it
Luis Garcia HOU at LAA x x x 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 12% K-BB .285 – 26th Really thought they’d stifle his IP, but he just keeps starting
Walker Buehler LAD at COL x x x 3.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 13% K-BB .318 – 17th* Never fun for your ace to be in Coors, but auto-start
Joe Ryan MIN at CHC x x x 2.12 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, 20% K-BB .329 – 7th Should be good after being hit by a batted ball
Chris Sale BOS NYM x x x 2.16 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 16% K-BB .308 – 20th Inconsistent in TJ return, still an auto play, though
Luis Castillo CIN PIT x x x 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21% K-BB .300 – 24th Might finish under 4.00 ERA after a 7.22 thru May
Chris Flexen 플렉센 SEA at OAK x x x 3.72 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9% K-BB .315 – 15th Underrated strong season from the 26-yr old returning from KBO
Corey Kluber NYY TEX x x x 5.66 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 15% K-BB .275 – 28th Good matchup & 6 scoreless IP last time make him a go
Carlos Hernandez KCR at CLE x x 3.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7% K-BB .296 – 25th Imploded last start, but had 1.68 ERA in 48 IP before that
Ian Anderson ATL at ARI x x 5.82 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, 5% K-BB .284 – 27th Brutal since IL return, but good matchup fuels interest
Reynaldo López CWS at DET x x 5.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB .304 – 21st Finally had the blowup, I’d still take a shot here
Cole Irvin OAK SEA x x 6.26 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 8% K-BB .304 – 22nd B2B gems after 3 straight duds put him back in consideration
Josiah Gray WAS at MIA x x 9.26 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 5% K-BB .280 – 28th HRs finally caught up to him, not a lock even w/this matchup
Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR at TBR x x 10.07 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18% K-BB .355 – 6th Wildly inconsistent lately, this is a big risk
Taylor Hearn TEX at NYY x 5.79 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 15% K-BB .279 – 27th Intriguing young arm that I’m keen on for ’22, too
Germán Márquez COL LAD x 6.38 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 10% K-BB .276 – 29th 3.16 ERA/1.10 WHIP in 94 IP at home
Merrill Kelly 켈리 ARI ATL x 4.20 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9% K-BB .321 – 10th Insane sked down the stretch: LAD 2x, SFG 2x, now ATL
Elieser Hernandez MIA WAS x 4.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 12% K-BB .317 – 13th Still too many HR, remember that when hype hits in ’22
Miles Mikolas STL at MIL x 5.87 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 6% K-BB .321 – 11th Great last outing, but there’s still big risk here
Keegan Akin BAL at PHI x 4.50 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 7% K-BB .317 – 16th Heed the risk that K-BB rate implies
Michael Wacha TBR TOR 4.44 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 27% K-BB .350 – 2nd Love the skills, but no shot I’d risk it v. TOR
Casey Mize DET CWS 3.32 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11% K-BB .323 – 9th IP mgmt. plan kills any shot at a W (8 IP in L3 GS)
Kyle Hendricks CHC MIN 9.12 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 5% K-BB .304 – 20th Just a brutal fall-off this yr, curious how it affects ’22 price
Logan Allen CLE KCR 6.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7% K-BB .311 – 17th Not enough upside to take on the severe downside
Tylor Megill NYM at BOS 7.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 22% K-BB .366 – 1st HR issues have bred volatility over his L10 (2.3 HR9)
Wil Crowe PIT at CIN 7.89 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 12% K-BB .300 – 23rd Not locked to start, but there are no viable PIT SPs anyway
Janson Junk LAA HOU 2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9% K-BB .356 – 5th Did allow 4 UER in debut; take K-BB seriously
*home vL for COL





Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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craigbedford
2 years ago

Hyun Jin Ryu went on the injured list two days ago. Stripling likely starter (according to Fangraphs).

craigbedford
2 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

And now Michael Wacha is pitching in relief for Rays so assume he is not starting tomorrow.