Starting Pitcher Chart – September 23rd, 2021

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September 22, 2021

With the season winding down, I wanted to find something that would be useful for those still contending in their leagues. I decided to do something that isn’t particularly new, but we don’t have it here at the site: a starting pitcher chart for the day’s slate of games. I’ll include their performance over the last five starts, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness, and then my start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues.

Let me know what y’all think about this. Obviously these are general recommendations and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto. For the weekend, Justin & I will use the Friday podcast to discuss the relevant weekend streamers. By popular demand, these will start coming out the day before the slate in question.

Starting Monday September 20th, I’m loosening my thresholds for streamer gambles. If you are protecting ratios, you should continue to be careful and manage as you see fit, but these recommendations are catering more to a “go-for-it” attitude over these final two weeks.

September 23rd Starter Chart
PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ L5 STATS OPP wOBA L30 days NOTE
Logan Webb SFG at SDP x x x 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 24% K-BB .285 – 28th Remember when he had a 5.34 ERA thru early May?
Lance McCullers Jr. HOU at LAA x x x 2.73 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 14% K-BB .294 – 26th Has a 2.10 ERA v. LAA in 25.7 IP
Max Scherzer LAD at COL x x x 0.00 ERA, 0.47 WHIP, 35% K-BB .296 – 20th Has allowed just 1 UER in his last 5 starts (36.7 IP)
Adam Wainwright STL at MIL x x x 1.87 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 9% K-BB .312 – 15th Can’t believe he developed into an auto-start this yr
Luis Castillo CIN WAS x x x 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 21% K-BB .322 – 11th Nice 2.78 ERA since that 8 ER dud at CLE
Adrian Houser MIL STL x x x 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8% K-BB .304 – 23rd ERA has been over 4.00 just once since June 1st
Aaron Nola PHI PIT x x x 5.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 33% K-BB .310 – 17th Hasn’t reached 6 IP since Aug 21st, but PIT should help that
Charlie Morton ATL at ARI x x x 3.60 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 20% K-BB .277 – 30th Ol’ Ground Chuck just keeps cookin
Aaron Civale^ CLE CWS x x x 4.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 12% K-BB .326 – 9th Back up to 6 IP/90 pitches last time out
Steven Matz TOR at MIN x x x 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 14% K-BB .289 – 23rd Hit a midseason lull, but closing strong (2.50 ERA since Aug 1)
Chris Bassitt OAK SEA x x x 2.77 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21% K-BB .317 – 12th Couldn’t find anything about IP limit for this return
Alex Cobb LAA HOU x x 0.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13% K-BB .346 – 4th Tough matchup but enough upside to take the plunge
Reynaldo López^ CWS at CLE x x 5.09 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17% K-BB .299 – 25th The ol’ ReyLo rug pull last time out, but I’ll dive back in
Yusei Kikuchi SEA at OAK x 4.98 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10% K-BB .315 – 17th Too many HR (1.6) stifled the potential breakout
Zach Plesac^ CLE CWS x 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 13% K-BB .326 – 9th Hard not to think last yr was simply a 2-month blip
Patrick Corbin WAS at CIN x 7.62 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 7% K-BB .273 – 28th Matchup gives him a modicum of upside
Glenn Otto TEX at BAL x 9.37 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 17% K-BB .316 – 13th Hasn’t reached 5 IP since the 5 scoreless v. HOU in MLB debut
Kyle Freeland COL LAD x 5.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 14% K-BB .349 – 7th Have to be able to take on a ton of downside to start him
Yu Darvish SDP SFG x 6.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 19% K-BB .353 – 2nd Brutal matchup, can he string 2 gems together?
Madison Bumgarner ARI ATL 6.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6% K-BB .301 – 22nd Juice not at all worth the squeeze
Michael Pineda MIN TOR 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 12% K-BB .351 – 3rd #NeverToronto
Zac Lowther BAL TEX 8.74 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 2% K-BB .270 – 29th The matchup doesn’t generate enough upside at all
Connor Overton PIT at PHI Just 1 3-IP outing so far .337 – 6th No idea what to expect here
*home vR for COL





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

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Jonathan Sher
2 years ago

With Oakland clawing for a wild card spot, and Bassitt returning from an injury not related to his arm, I suspect the A’s won’t limit his pitch count all that much. He threw at least 81 pitches every start before the injury and usually between 90 and 105. If he’s pitching well, I think it’s likely he tops 80 pitches.

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