Third Base ADP Market Report: 1/28/2025

Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

None

Top 200 Players Rising

None

Top 200 Players Falling

Royce Lewis (-26.23) – I am a bit surprised to see Lewis dropping here. On a per plate appearance basis, he is a monster, hitting 33 home runs and stealing six bases over his 605 MLB plate appearances during his career. However, that is a cumulative over three seasons that have all been shortened by injuries. If you could pencil him in for 600 plate appearances, he might be a top 30 pick, but you just can’t do it. I imagine this price will go up though as people love to chase upside, but if it doesn’t, then he would be a really fun player to gamble on. 

Top 300 Players Rising

Isaac Paredes (+58.14) – Paredes is rising after being traded to Houston in the deal for Kyle Tucker. This was a fantastic move for his value. He really struggled after the move to Chicago last season, hitting .223/.325/.307 with just three home runs and one stolen base in 212 plate appearances. He now moves to a park that is built perfectly for his pull happy approach. Paredes had an xHR of 26 if he had played his games in Houston last season. This is a good lineup he will hit in the middle of the lineup and should be able to be a 20+ homer guy again. 

Matt Shaw (+104.21) – Shaw is moving up with the reports that he will compete for the third base job in Chicago this season with Paredes being shipped out of town. Shae is the Cubs top prospect and there aren’t many doubts about his ability to hit. There are defensive concerns but early reports are that he looks good on the hot corner which makes him a very interesting target as long as he looks good in spring training. 

Top 300 Players Falling

Josh Jung (-16.05) – Jung is dropping some in the ADP after missing most of the season last year with injuries. Jung is a former top prospect that has been good on the field, but has struggled to stay on the field over his first few seasons.

He reportedly is finally completely healthy heading into the 2025 season, but there is risk that he will get hurt again. His price isn’t bad and if it continues to drop, he might be worth the risk because there is 30 home run upside in the bat if he can stay on the field. 

Others of Note

Jose Caballero (-19.8) – See the article in this series on second basemen. 

Noelvi Marte (-55.3) – Marte is dropping right now because he looks to be the odd man out in Concy with the return of Matt McLain and the addition of Gavin Lux. Marte is a former top prospect that was not very good in his small sample in 2024. He will likely have a shot to play at some point, but with it being unlikely that he is on the Opening Day roster, you shouldn’t draft him unless there is an injury that opens up playing time for him. 

Coby Mayo (-45.92) – Mayo is dropping because like Marte, he is not projected to make the Opening Day roster. That being said, I think Mayo has a lot more upside. He is a top tier prospect with a lot of power in the bat. He hit 25 homers last season in the minors with a .293/.372/.592 triple slash. He could mash his way to the minors quickly and I would take the gamble on the reduced price in places where it makes sense to stash him. 

Gio Urshela (+154.88) – Urshela is rising after signing with the Sacramento Athletics of Las Vegas formerly from Oakland. It isn’t a great team around him but he will get to play every day and while we don’t quite know how Sacramento will play, it will be better than Oakland would have been. He is best for really deep leagues where he can accumulate. 

Josh Rojas (+166.84) – Rojas is rising after signing in Chicago with the White Sox. Similar to Urshela, because Chicago is so bad, Rojas is going to play a lot. He has never turned into the offensive force many (including me) thought he would be, but there is some power and speed and he can be an accumulator for deeper formats. 

Third Base ADP Market Report: 1/28/2025
12/16/24-1/27/25 Player Team Position(s) 10/1/24-12/15/24 Change
5.34 José Ramírez CLE 3B 5.85 0.51
24.77 Jazz Chisholm Jr. NYY 3B, OF 26.39 1.62
33.43 Austin Riley ATL 3B 31.63 -1.8
36.45 Rafael Devers BOS 3B 31.37 -5.08
39.43 Manny Machado SD 3B 41.33 1.9
92.57 Mark Vientos NYM 3B 95.24 2.67
94.7 Junior Caminero TB 3B 100.5 5.8
96.49 Jordan Westburg BAL 2B, 3B 105.11 8.62
118.19 Jake Burger TEX 1B, 3B 122.63 4.44
128.36 Royce Lewis MIN 3B 102.13 -26.23
133.83 Matt Chapman SF 3B 141.35 7.52
145.15 Alex Bregman HOU 3B 143.33 -1.82
161.21 Luis Rengifo LAA 2B, 3B 166.37 5.16
179.58 Eugenio Suárez ARZ 3B 186.24 6.66
184.04 Alec Bohm PHI 3B 177.65 -6.39
201.43 Isaac Paredes HOU 3B 259.57 58.14
215.64 Maikel Garcia KC 2B, 3B 210.2 -5.44
217.55 Matt Shaw CHC 3B 321.76 104.21
225.57 Josh Jung TEX 3B 209.52 -16.05
227.09 Nolan Arenado STL 3B 226.98 -0.11
237.09 Willi Castro MIN 2B, 3B, SS, OF 247.85 10.76
248.32 Max Muncy LAD 3B 234.33 -13.99
264.25 Connor Norby MIA 3B 273.15 8.9
278.02 Christopher Morel TB 2B, 3B 274.33 -3.69
279.85 Ryan McMahon COL 3B 274.63 -5.22
295.87 Jeimer Candelario CIN 1B, 3B 301.78 5.91
295.91 Joey Ortiz MLW 3B 295.7 -0.21
300.23 Jose Caballero TB 2B, 3B, SS 280.43 -19.8
320.13 Matt Vierling DET 3B, OF 315.94 -4.19
331.6 Noelvi Marte CIN 3B 276.3 -55.3
354.21 Jose Miranda MIN 3B 369.43 15.22
355.15 Ke’Bryan Hayes PIT 3B 351.89 -3.26
359.23 Dylan Moore SEA 2B, 3B, SS, OF 396.02 36.79
363.17 Isiah Kiner-Falefa PIT 2B, 3B, SS 395.35 32.18
377.47 Ernie Clement TOR 3B, SS 400.04 22.57
387.36 Coby Mayo BAL 3B 341.44 -45.92
390.58 José Tena WAS 3B 387.31 -3.27
407 Josh Smith TEX 3B, SS 356.5 -50.5
430.96 Miguel Vargas CWS 3B, OF 457.06 26.1
441.43 Lenyn Sosa CWS 2B, 3B 471.41 29.98
479.55 Gio Urshela ATH 3B 634.43 154.88
487 Jace Jung DET 3B 477.2 -9.8
493.83 Brett Baty NYM 3B 512.13 18.3
513.49 Paul DeJong KC 3B, SS 516.06 2.57
539.42 Josh Rojas CWS 3B 706.26 166.84
542.6 Edmundo Sosa PHI 2B, 3B, SS 601.44 58.84
577.66 Max Schuemann ATH 3B, SS 536.93 -40.73
591.23 Yoán Moncada CWS 3B 567.81 -23.42
606.25 Addison Barger TOR 3B, OF 558.37 -47.88
607.02 Oswaldo Cabrera NYY 3B 634.04 27.02
612.25 Bryan Ramos CWS 3B 592.5 -19.75
612.83 Shay Whitcomb HOU 3B 560.26 -52.57
615.09 Kyle Farmer COL 2B, 3B 641.02 25.93
617.53 Zach McKinstry DET 3B, SS, OF 627.46 9.93
625.3 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B, 3B 717.35 92.05
632.98 Jared Triolo PIT 2B, 3B 563.22 -69.76
640.74 Donovan Solano SEA 1B, 3B 717.61 76.87
646.6 Santiago Espinal CIN 2B, 3B 618.09 -28.51
664.25 Eguy Rosario SD 3B 706.59 42.34
670.81 Ramón Urías BAL 3B 650.24 -20.57
680.57 Enrique Hernández LAD 3B, OF 625.65 -54.92
685.15 Jose Iglesias NYM 2B, 3B 679.81 -5.34
687.62 Ezequiel Duran TEX 3B, OF 668.69 -18.93
693.34 Brady House WAS 3B 662.35 -30.99
709.53 Anthony Rendon LAA 3B 722.96 13.43
719.13 Oswald Peraza NYY 3B 719.07 -0.06
721.81 Jon Berti CHC 3B 738.85 17.04
723.98 Chris Taylor LAD 2B, 3B, OF 741.43 17.45
740.72 Oliver Dunn MLW 3B 746.74 6.02
741.79 Cam Smith HOU 3B 746.48 4.69
745.13 Gabriel Arias CLE 3B 738.24 -6.89
746.19 Darell Hernaiz ATH 3B 695.54 -50.65
746.38 Eric Wagaman MIA 3B 747.37 0.99
747.21 Otto Kemp PHI 3B 748.93 1.72
748.34 Emmanuel Rivera BAL 1B, 3B 742.37 -5.97
748.4 Nick Senzel CWS 3B 749.04 0.64
749.75 Tyler Nevin DET 3B NA NA
750.11 Trey Lipscomb WAS 3B 746.93 -3.18
750.13 Jose Fermin STL 3B -750.13
750.15 CJ Alexander ATH 3B NA NA
750.17 Brock Wilken MLW 3B 746.46 -3.71
750.32 Graham Pauley MIA 3B 747 -3.32
NA Ildemaro Vargas WAS 2B, 3B NA NA
NA Tyler Wade SD 3B, OF NA NA





Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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JuuuustAnotherBaseballFanMember since 2018
9 days ago

Buy on fading prospects! Everybody’s worried about the what if scenarios, but getting Jung late might get one a full year of solid production.