Jake Mailhot’s 2023 Ottoneu First Base Rankings

After going through the catching position last week, I’m turning my attention to ranking the rest of the infield this week, beginning with first basemen. Do you need a big thumper to power your offense? Do you like strategic draft decisions at a deep position with plenty of mid-tier talent? Look no further.

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu Position Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

I really like the format of Chad’s ranking so I’ll try and emulate them a bit here. Here are few more notes about my process:

1. Tiers > Ranks. While these players will all be technically ranked ordinally, the tier they’re placed in really matters. The order within the tiers doesn’t matter as much, though that isn’t to imply that the players within each tier are interchangeable either.
2. Projected points. I’ve been building my own homebrewed projections for the past decade plus, ever since I started playing Ottoneu, and they form the basis for the rankings below. They’re nothing overly complicated; essentially just a MARCEL-esque projection using three years of historical data filtered through a rough aging curve and adjusted for the current run environment. I also include a collection of three public projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to provide some additional context. That gives each player six data sources that form their projection.
3. P/G vs P/PA. Points per game played is the gold standard by which you should be evaluating players in Ottoneu. I won’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, particularly for players who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions often. Those limited appearances can skew a player’s P/G lower than what they’re producing when they’re getting full-time playing time. To provide a little more context for these kinds of players, I’ve also included points per plate appearance below. That measure should give us a better idea of how a player produces no matter how he’s used by his team.
4. Dollar amounts are pre-inflation. The dollar amounts assigned to each tier are pre-inflation but are easily adjusted for your league context.

Rather than give notes on every player like Chad, I’ll give my general thoughts on the position below and discuss a handful of players I like more or less than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

First base is always a deep position and this year is no different. If you miss out on one of the top guys, I count up to 20 or so secondary options that could provide solid production for your team. That’s not to say you should ignore those guys in the top tier and just wait to grab a mid-tier option. If you have the opportunity to pick one of Freddy Freeman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., or Paul Goldschmidt, you won’t regret it. They’ll carry a large portion of your offense on their own — if you pay for that kind of production.

There’s a group of young first basemen who have either just established themselves or are on the verge of debuting, led by Vinnie Pasquantino. If you miss out on the Italian Breakfast, Nathaniel Lowe, Triston Casas, Jose Miranda, and hopefully Spencer Torkelson all bring a bit of youth to a position that has traditionally skewed pretty veteran heavy.

There are a bunch of bounce back candidates that can be found for really cheap to pair with a mid-tier option if you want to go that way. Brandon Belt’s projections are off the charts, but the health of his knees will always dictate how much he’s able to produce. Jared Walsh, Trey Mancini, and Dominic Smith also fit this bill. If any of those guys are healthy and producing, they could return some excellent value for just a buck or two, and because the position is so deep, they can be jettisoned pretty easily if they’re not hitting well early in the season.

Three Guys I Like More than Chad
Vinnie Pasquantino – I’m expecting pretty big things from Pasquantino in his sophomore campaign. In his first taste of the major leagues, he showed phenomenal plate discipline with a walk rate a few decimal points above his strikeout rate; he didn’t chase and made contact at an elite rate. With that kind of foundation, he’s already a step ahead of most young prospects. And when he puts the ball in play, he does it very hard and in the air. All of the skills he showed are exactly what you’d want to see from a young hitter and already make him one of the better hitters in the league at just 25-years-old.

Yandy Díaz – Díaz possesses all the same skills that make Pasquantino an elite presence at the plate — low chase, high contact, and high hard hit rates. The only thing that’s lacking is an ability to elevate the ball regularly. That didn’t hold him back from posting a career-high 146 wRC+ last year. The projection systems believe in this new ceiling he showed last year and even project a bit of power growth for him this year. I’m not sure if that’ll happen without a significant change in his batted ball profile, but he’s already proved he can be productive without a higher fly ball rate. Buy the elite skills, and if he does make the launch angle adjustment, reap even greater rewards.

Joey Meneses – Anyone who bought into Frank Schwindel’s “breakout” in 2021 can tell you to stay away from Meneses. Late career breakouts like these are just so hard to predict and rarely last long. There are a few reasons why I believe Meneses’s leap will stick this year. His hard hit rate was significantly higher than Schwindel’s, giving him a higher power ceiling. His plate approach isn’t great; the combination of low strikeout and low walk rates make him pretty dependent on batted ball outcomes. Even if his BABIP regresses back toward league average, his ability to impact the ball gives him a solid foundation to be an above average hitter.

Three Guys I Don’t Like as Much as Chad
Christian Walker – Walker posted a career-year in 2022, setting career-highs in all sorts of offensive categories. I’m not necessarily down on him because of that — though he’s likely to regress back towards his career norms. The biggest adjustment he made was to swing a lot less aggressively, reducing his overall swing rate to just under 45%. His batted ball peripherals all looked fairly similar to his breakout season in 2019. Without any significant changes to his underlying ability to hit for power, the likelihood that he repeats his career-year in 2023 comes down to whether or not his new plate approach is sticky.

Andrew Vaughn – Last season, Vaughn increased his hard hit rate four points, up from 46.4% to 48.4%, putting him in the top ten percent of the league. Even though he was able to impact the ball with authority more often, his barrel rate fell by three points and his isolated power fell by two points. Therein lies the problem. Despite hitting the ball extremely hard, it’s too often put on the ground instead of in the air. To make matters worse, his plate discipline slipped a bit as well, with his walk rate falling to 5.6%. Despite these issues, his wRC+ was still decent at 113. If you’re drafting him and expecting a breakout, there are a lot of things that will need to change first to get there.

Matt Mervis – Mervis had a ton of helium after posting a fantastic 156 wRC+ across three different minor league levels last year. He slashed .309/.379/.605 and blasted 36 home runs as he moved from High-A all the way up to Triple-A in the span of a single season. It’s certainly possible he’ll make his major league debut this year but I’m pumping the brakes on picking him as a breakout candidate. Last year was just his second professional season after going undrafted in the abbreviated, five-round 2020 draft. In 2021, he posted just an 85 wRC+ while spending most of his time in Single-A. The Cubs were obviously not ready to hand the reins over to him this year either; they signed both Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini to play first. Neither of those two veterans will block Mervis if he continues smashing the ball in the minor leagues, but he has to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke first.