Chad Young’s Ottoneu SP Ranks
I have some good news and some bad news. Although you may think the bad news is good news. We’ll see.
The good news is, I am making sure that all of my rankings are up in time for cut deadline day! The bad news is that, in order to meet this deadline, I had to sacrifice my notes column for the pitcher rankings. If it helps, you can imagine that I wrote something witty, insightful or in rare cases both, as you look at each row below.
Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C |1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | RP
A few notes that would have been in the notes column:
- Yes, I know you think Walker Buehler should be higher. Look at that projected P/IP though! I already moved him way up from where he projects.
- If you promised me Jacob deGrom would get 150 innings, he would be over Gerrit Cole, easily.
- I am very interested to see where Danny Duffy signs and how he looks in Spring Training or Summer Camp or Fall Practice or whatever we get this year.
- Ohtani is probably about a $15-$20 SP, maybe less depending on innings – his bat drives the majority of his value.
- I feel like we should call Baz and McClanahan the Shanes, right?
- No Trevor Bauer is not on here. There are two reasons for this: 1) I still think there is a good chance MLB comes down hard on him and so it is very hard to pin down his theoretical on-field value. 2) I am not drafting him. I am not here to judge anyone who does – you adding him to your fantasy team does not impact anything, nor does my leaving him off my fantasy team. That said, I have no desire to see him succeed and even less desire to benefit from that success. I don’t want to find myself hoping he pitches or that he pitches well or anything like that. So I am not drafting him, so he is not on this list. If you would like to know where he would be if I were somehow forced to add him – he would be right after Caleb Kilian.
Chad Young’s Ottoneu SP Ranks
| Tier | Rank | Player | Projected P/IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| $40-$50 | 1 | Gerrit Cole | 5.56 |
| $40-$50 | 2 | Jacob deGrom | 6.58 |
| $40-$50 | 3 | Corbin Burnes | 5.54 |
| $34-$39 | 4 | Max Scherzer | 5.36 |
| $34-$39 | 5 | Zack Wheeler | 4.75 |
| $34-$39 | 6 | Shane Bieber | 5.24 |
| $28-$33 | 7 | Brandon Woodruff | 4.84 |
| $28-$33 | 8 | Aaron Nola | 4.56 |
| $28-$33 | 9 | Logan Webb | 4.70 |
| $21-$25 | 10 | Charlie Morton | 4.86 |
| $21-$25 | 11 | Sandy Alcantara | 4.46 |
| $21-$25 | 12 | Robbie Ray | 5.00 |
| $21-$25 | 13 | Chris Sale | 5.21 |
| $21-$25 | 14 | Blake Snell | 4.74 |
| $21-$25 | 15 | Justin Verlander | 4.97 |
| $21-$25 | 16 | Walker Buehler | 4.28 |
| $16-$20 | 17 | Trevor Rogers | 4.73 |
| $16-$20 | 18 | Frankie Montas | 4.69 |
| $16-$20 | 19 | Kevin Gausman | 4.56 |
| $16-$20 | 20 | Max Fried | 4.29 |
| $16-$20 | 21 | Joe Musgrove | 4.46 |
| $16-$20 | 22 | Freddy Peralta | 4.52 |
| $16-$20 | 23 | Lucas Giolito | 4.39 |
| $16-$20 | 24 | Carlos Rodón | 5.14 |
| $16-$20 | 25 | Luis Castillo | 4.23 |
| $16-$20 | 26 | Pablo López | 4.66 |
| $16-$20 | 27 | Shane McClanahan | 4.79 |
| $16-$20 | 28 | José Berríos | 4.44 |
| $16-$20 | 29 | Lance McCullers Jr. | 4.70 |
| $16-$20 | 30 | Jack Flaherty | 4.33 |
| $16-$20 | 31 | Eduardo Rodriguez | 4.51 |
| $10-$15 | 32 | Julio Urías | 4.04 |
| $10-$15 | 33 | Dylan Cease | 4.52 |
| $10-$15 | 34 | Sean Manaea | 4.63 |
| $10-$15 | 35 | Yu Darvish | 4.47 |
| $10-$15 | 36 | Nathan Eovaldi | 4.51 |
| $10-$15 | 37 | Shane Baz | 4.78 |
| $10-$15 | 38 | Alek Manoah | 4.40 |
| $10-$15 | 39 | Framber Valdez | 4.56 |
| $10-$15 | 40 | Alex Wood | 4.46 |
| $10-$15 | 41 | Clayton Kershaw | 4.51 |
| $10-$15 | 42 | Mike Clevinger | 4.68 |
| $10-$15 | 43 | Zac Gallen | 4.17 |
| $10-$15 | 44 | Lance Lynn | 4.35 |
| $10-$15 | 45 | Michael Kopech | 4.90 |
| $10-$15 | 46 | Chris Bassitt | 4.33 |
| $6-9 | 47 | Alex Cobb | 4.23 |
| $6-9 | 48 | Luis Severino | 4.26 |
| $6-9 | 49 | Ian Anderson | 3.88 |
| $6-9 | 50 | Logan Gilbert | 4.22 |
| $6-9 | 51 | Patrick Sandoval | 4.22 |
| $6-9 | 52 | Jordan Montgomery | 4.14 |
| $6-9 | 53 | Tarik Skubal | 4.29 |
| $6-9 | 54 | Huascar Ynoa | 4.16 |
| $6-9 | 55 | Carlos Carrasco | 4.12 |
| $6-9 | 56 | Sixto Sánchez | 4.29 |
| $6-9 | 57 | Tyler Glasnow | #N/A |
| $6-9 | 58 | Tanner Houck | 4.57 |
| $6-9 | 59 | Joe Ryan | 4.07 |
| $6-9 | 60 | Aaron Ashby | 5.51 |
| $6-9 | 61 | Luis Garcia | 4.04 |
| $6-9 | 62 | Ranger Suárez | 3.95 |
| $6-9 | 63 | Sonny Gray | 3.92 |
| $3-$5 | 64 | Tyler Mahle | 3.76 |
| $3-$5 | 65 | Drew Rasmussen | 4.42 |
| $3-$5 | 66 | Anthony DeSclafani | 3.71 |
| $3-$5 | 67 | Marcus Stroman | 3.66 |
| $3-$5 | 68 | Tylor Megill | 4.17 |
| $3-$5 | 69 | Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 | 4.03 |
| $3-$5 | 70 | Jon Gray | 4.03 |
| $3-$5 | 71 | Jesús Luzardo | 3.93 |
| $3-$5 | 72 | Josiah Gray | 3.20 |
| $3-$5 | 73 | Max Meyer | 3.51 |
| $3-$5 | 74 | José Urquidy | 3.51 |
| $3-$5 | 75 | Triston McKenzie | 3.81 |
| $3-$5 | 76 | Dustin May | 5.18 |
| $3-$5 | 77 | Andrew Heaney | 3.81 |
| $3-$5 | 78 | Corey Kluber | 3.90 |
| $3-$5 | 79 | Germán Márquez | 3.53 |
| $3-$5 | 80 | Noah Syndergaard | 3.62 |
| $3-$5 | 81 | Dinelson Lamet | 6.39 |
| $3-$5 | 82 | Roansy Contreras | 3.92 |
| $3-$5 | 83 | George Kirby | 3.79 |
| $3-$5 | 84 | Edward Cabrera | 4.45 |
| $3-$5 | 85 | Grayson Rodriguez | 3.76 |
| $3-$5 | 86 | Reid Detmers | 3.96 |
| $3-$5 | 87 | Bailey Ober | 3.84 |
| $3-$5 | 88 | Adbert Alzolay | 3.82 |
| $3-$5 | 89 | Casey Mize | 3.61 |
| $3-$5 | 90 | Nick Lodolo | 3.93 |
| $3-$5 | 91 | Luis Patiño | 4.10 |
| $3-$5 | 92 | Steven Matz | 3.99 |
| $3-$5 | 93 | James Paxton | 4.37 |
| $3-$5 | 94 | Chris Paddack | 4.10 |
| $3-$5 | 95 | Stephen Strasburg | 3.83 |
| $3-$5 | 96 | Cal Quantrill | 3.39 |
| $3-$5 | 97 | Zach Plesac | 3.21 |
| $1-$2 | 98 | Tony Gonsolin | 3.36 |
| $1-$2 | 99 | Elieser Hernandez | 3.71 |
| $1-$2 | 100 | Jack Leiter | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 101 | Reiver Sanmartin | 3.55 |
| $1-$2 | 102 | Brady Singer | 4.12 |
| $1-$2 | 103 | JT Brubaker | 3.64 |
| $1-$2 | 104 | Mike Soroka | 3.63 |
| $1-$2 | 105 | Marco Gonzales | 3.30 |
| $1-$2 | 106 | Adam Wainwright | 3.63 |
| $1-$2 | 107 | Kyle Gibson | 3.45 |
| $1-$2 | 108 | Daniel Espino | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 109 | Cade Cavalli | 3.43 |
| $1-$2 | 110 | Hunter Greene | 3.54 |
| $1-$2 | 111 | Emerson Hancock | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 112 | John Means | 3.80 |
| $1-$2 | 113 | Rich Hill | 3.15 |
| $1-$2 | 114 | Bobby Miller | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 115 | Jameson Taillon | 3.61 |
| $1-$2 | 116 | Eric Lauer | 3.53 |
| $1-$2 | 117 | Adrian Houser | 3.32 |
| $1-$2 | 118 | Nick Pivetta | 3.87 |
| $1-$2 | 119 | Ryan Yarbrough | 3.05 |
| $1-$2 | 120 | Zach Thompson | 3.25 |
| $1-$2 | 121 | James Kaprielian | 3.90 |
| $1-$2 | 122 | MacKenzie Gore | 3.67 |
| $1-$2 | 123 | Yusei Kikuchi | 3.99 |
| $1-$2 | 124 | Dane Dunning | 3.98 |
| $1-$2 | 125 | Kenta Maeda | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 126 | Tucker Davidson | 3.73 |
| $1-$2 | 127 | Taijuan Walker | 3.48 |
| $1-$2 | 128 | Zach Eflin | 3.47 |
| $1-$2 | 129 | Nick Martínez | #N/A |
| $1-$2 | 130 | Matthew Boyd | 4.07 |
| $1-$2 | 131 | Aaron Civale | 3.46 |
| $1-$2 | 132 | Kyle Hendricks | 2.99 |
| $0 | 133 | Chris Flexen 플렉센 | 3.62 |
| $0 | 134 | Mitch Keller | 3.40 |
| $0 | 135 | Nestor Cortes | 3.80 |
| $0 | 136 | Justin Dunn | 3.53 |
| $0 | 137 | Dakota Hudson | 3.21 |
| $0 | 138 | Dylan Bundy | 3.33 |
| $0 | 139 | Ross Stripling | 3.56 |
| $0 | 140 | Carlos Hernandez | 3.33 |
| $0 | 141 | Michael Lorenzen | 3.25 |
| $0 | 142 | Cristian Javier | 4.13 |
| $0 | 143 | Cole Irvin | 3.23 |
| $0 | 144 | Domingo Germán | 4.08 |
| $0 | 145 | Austin Gomber | 2.96 |
| $0 | 146 | Kris Bubic | 3.56 |
| $0 | 147 | Matthew Liberatore | 3.28 |
| $0 | 148 | Zack Greinke | 3.43 |
| $0 | 149 | David Price | 3.61 |
| $0 | 150 | Wade Miley | 3.11 |
| $0 | 151 | Danny Duffy | 4.09 |
| $0 | 152 | Patrick Corbin | 3.63 |
| $0 | 153 | Miles Mikolas | 3.41 |
| $0 | 154 | Paolo Espino | 2.87 |
| $0 | 155 | Luke Weaver | 3.48 |
| $0 | 156 | Michael Wacha | 3.65 |
| $0 | 157 | Brad Keller | 3.72 |
| $0 | 158 | Michael Pineda | 3.18 |
| $0 | 159 | Chris Archer | 3.38 |
| $0 | 160 | Jose Quintana | 3.76 |
| $0 | 161 | Mike Minor | 3.89 |
| $0 | 162 | Mick Abel | #N/A |
| $0 | 163 | Ryne Nelson | #N/A |
| $0 | 164 | Kyle Harrison | #N/A |
| $0 | 165 | Caleb Kilian | #N/A |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
Thanks for getting this in before the keeper deadline.
What’s going on with Julio Urias’ projection? He’s projected for much worse p/ip than everyone else around him, including guys like Bassitt and Cobb. 4.04 would be almost 1.4 less than last year for him. I realize there’s a good chance for HR regression for him, but that seems like a lot.
Two things I think are happening. One is the HR regression and I thin that is probably overblown – he has shown he can keep HR down and while he may regress, I don’t think he regresses that far. The other is reverting closer to career walk and K numbers. It’s a small shift, from 26.2% K rate and 5.1% walk rate last year to about 24% and 6.5%, which is closer to his previous norms. That’s not a ton, but over 100 hitters, that is a loss of 4.5 points from extra walks, and 6 points from fewer K, plus he probably loses another 3ish points from throwing fewer innings over those 100 hitters. Losing 13 points over 100 hitters is about half a point per inning. Add in an extra 2 HR per 100 hitters and you get 1.5 P/IP down from last year. I don’t expect that big a fall, otherwise he would be ranked lower.
I gather from this list that you’re projecting Nate Pearson as a reliever?
Pearson ended up on neither list, mostly as an oversight. The reality though is that his projections don’t justify much. The talent is real and I think he could be useful, but he is effectively still a prospect. I think he is a $2-$3 RP if he is definitely in the bullpen. As a SP, I might pay a bit more, but I am not going to use him at all until he shows he can perform. Think of him a bit like Grayson Rodriguez – you are paying for what you hope you will get later this year or next year, not for what he does right away.
I appreciate the sentiment you express re: Trevor Bauer. I will not be drafting him either, and while it may be better objective analysis to just slot him in where you think the cold hard value is, I’m glad to see an analyst just opting out altogether.
How could you possibly rank Lynn —w track record of innings eater, Ks, and great opportunities for wins — 44th behind the likes of E Rodriguez, McClanahan, Valdez and Wood, among others. What am I missing!
You’re missing that these are ottoneu points rankings, not roto rankings. Wins in particular mean nothing, and per-inning performance is usually more important than bulk.
Mostly what the Stranger said. Wins don’t matter and while Lynn piles up K, his K/9 (which is effectively the measurement of K value in Ottoneu) is good but not great (31st among SP with 100+ IP last year). The deep rosters in Ottoneu makes volume play down a bit, though to be honest, his volume wasn’t even that high last year. His 157 innings ranks 47th.
But even if we pencil him in for 200 innings, if replacement level is 3.8 P/IP, a pitcher going 100 innings at 5.1 P/IP is worth more than a P going 200 innings at 4.4 P/IP. The former will get you 510 points plus a replacement level P for 100 innings giving you 380, for 890 total. The 200 IP guy will give you 880.
Just noting that Lynn would be far more valuable in H2H, no?
Maybe? Extra value in H2H leagues (or OPL) comes from maxing out IP/GS – you are capped to how many starts you get in H2H (either a certain number per week or two per night) and OPL (two per night) but neither has an innings limit. So a guy going 3 innings and a guy going 9 innings both just count as one start. Last year, 145 pitchers had 75+ IP as a starter. Lynn was 45th in IP/GS at 5.61. So nothing super special.
Love DeGrom, can’t see how you have him tiered above Walker though. Elbow health counts for something … doesn’t it ???
Elbow health keeps deGrom from costing $70+, but I agree that buying him even at $40-50 is a real test of risk aversion. I would much rather own him as a rebuilding team to trade during the season, because if he’s healthy he’s going to be worth an enormous haul. The risk would be tough for a competitive team.
Huge caveat is elbow health. Finding the sweet spot in a draft on his valuation could be super interesting and I’d be curious if they just trot him out there every 5th day or is he going to be on a IP count ..
They say he is healthy, and the reality is even 100 innings of vintage deGrom is incredibly valuable. If Cole or Burnes gives you 200 innings, you get 1120 points from them at 5.6 P/IP (their projection). DeGrom needs to give you just 129 innings to match them when you include getting replacement level points for the remaining innings. Basically, putting him there is me saying I think Cole can get 210, I can count on DeGrom for 120 and Burnes will give me 180.
I’m not wild about the Steamer projections this year, because they seem to be incredibly regressed even moreso than usual. Especially for some guys with established levels of performance who are also in their primes (guys like Fried, Giolito, Castillo, Nola). I suppose it’s all relative, but I don’t think it accurately captures the differences between the top pitchers and the mid-tier guys. I think you’ve done a good job ranking them and will happily live in the $16-20 range.
I don’t care about anyone’s decision to draft or pass on Bauer, but saying that *if* you were to rank him – the 34th best SP last year by PPIP – you’d put him at #166 is disingenuous and adds no new information that wasn’t already conveyed by you leaving him off the list.
It’s not disingenuous at all. The ranking is a list of how I order the pitchers. It is effectively asking, “if all of these pitchers were the same price, which one would I take first, then second, etc.” If he were on the list, he would be last. Because that is when I would take him if forced to.
Your point about “if all of these pitchers were the same price, which one would I take first, then second, etc.” is missing one key aspect that is tacitly assumed by fantasy baseball readers. This aspect is “based upon their on-field contributions”. Like it or not, everyone (or almost everyone) here will be playing fantasy baseball with Trevor Bauer in the player pool.
Just curious – is your Julio Urias ranking based upon his potential on-field contributions or have your baked in some downward ranking from his DV arrest? Or was that too long ago for you to care about?
What’s the max (in an established league) you would keep Severino at? I like him and have him at $19 and the way I see it, if I cut him and he shows up to spring training firing out of the gate, I’m worried his draft price will go up past what I have him at. However, if I hold on to him and he seems to be in bad shape early on, I’ve lost the money for auction, but I can cut him and instantly have a chunk of cap space to use on early season pop-ups. What do you think? Am I way off base?
I wouldn’t keep him at $19. I can’t see him going for more than that regardless of his performance in Spring Training, if there even is a Spring Training. No matter what he does over a handful of practice innings, he is high risk and that will keep his price down.
Why is Snell so high? His numbers were brutal prior to that three game stretch to end the season and at points during the year he seemed to totally lose the strike zone. I owned him last year and he feels like a $10 flyer, nothing more…
It was way more than three starts. His final 15 starts (not counting the 0.2 innings where he got hurt), which is June through the end of his season, he had a 3.47 FIP with K rate over 30% over 81 innings, which was about 2/3rds of his season total.
Through his first 106 IP, Snell had 5.5 (!!) BB/9, 4.82 ERA, 4.31 FIP, and only made it out of the 5th five times. Sure, tons of Ks, but if you look at that game log he was mostly unstartable because you had no clue which guy you were getting. He’d string together a couple of decent start, then a meltdown. And in the PIT, MIL, WAS, NYM games, those should have been favorable matchups…..and he blows up.
Functionally, as a guy that owned him last year, I don’t want to get on that ride again…
Daniel Lynch? Madison Bumgarner? Ryan Weathers? Antonio Senzatela? Merrill Kelly? Jackson Kowar? Dallas Keuchel? Jake Odorizzi? Kwang Hyun Kim?
Monumental effort Chad! Thanks.
Thanks Chad for Your great effort!
Can I ask You some deeper thoughts about Joe Ryan? I’m intrigued because he has good peripherals, but also an high HR/9….what you think about his ceiling?
Who has the better ceiling long term, Ryan, Ashby or Skubal?
Thanks a lot
Where would Merrill Kelly rank?