Chad Young’s Ottoneu 3B Rankings

Third base is a weird position this year. There are some studs at the top, but it gets risky real fast. Want to bet on Alex Bregman regaining his earlier form? Or Austin Riley avoiding his earlier form? Think Anthony Rendon can stay on the field? Or maybe you would rather gamble on Josh Donaldson’s health? Pick your poison. Hopefully these rankings help.

Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | OF | SP | RP

In terms of eligibility, 3B vs. OF presents a challenge, as players have similar values at both spots. If Kris Bryant were OF-only or 3B-only instead of 1B/3B/OF, his value would not move much. I decided to include 3B/OF eligible players here, rather than in the OF. Because the values are similar, you should be able to easily compare players from this list to that one (once it publishes).

Here is the list – let me know what you think! As a reminder, the methodology and other details are covered at the top of the C list.

 

Chad Young’s Ottoneu 3B Ranks
Tier Rank Player Eligibility Projected P/G Notes
$38-$45 1 Jose Ramirez 3B 6.55 The best in the game and still in his prime.
$38-$45 2 Rafael Devers 3B 6.46 Over the last three years, Devers has actually outscored Ramirez, making this a very tight 1 vs 2.
$31-$37 3 Manny Machado 3B 6.06 Less risky than Bregman, given the latter’s struggles the last couple years.
$31-$37 4 Alex Bregman 3B 6.21 Has the upside to rejoin the top two with a great season, but not sure I buy it.
$25-$30 5 Austin Riley 1B/3B 5.99 Could easily see him in the Machado/Bregman tier but the track record isn’t long enough…yet.
$20-$24 6 Josh Donaldson 3B 5.89 You can’t count on more than 130 or so games, but he keeps hitting when he plays – just make sure you have a solid backup.
$20-$24 7 Anthony Rendon 3B 5.89 Big drops since 2019 in EV are pretty concerning, but if he is healthy and hitting, he’s a bargain.
$20-$24 8 Kris Bryant 1B/3B/OF 5.40 Projections don’t quite buy that the power is all the way back; landing spot might shift his value quite a bit.
$15-$19 9 Nolan Arenado 3B 5.60 FB rate has been increasing, bringing down his BABIP and hiding declining power.
$10-$14 10 Spencer Torkelson 1B/3B 6.01 This time next year, he could be top five, but need to see him hit MLB pitching.
$15-$19 11 Justin Turner 3B 5.65 At 37, think we are going to see more missed time and more decline, but still solid value.
$10-$14 12 Yoán Moncada 3B 5.34 Batted ball data suggests there should be more power, but maybe not enough more to climb much higher than this.
$10-$14 13 Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B 5.00 With wrist issues behind him, I’ll bet on that hit tool.
$6-$9 14 Jeimer Candelario 3B 5.07 Projection feels a little low; think you can bank him for 5.25 P/G and 5.5 is more likely than 5.0.
$3-$5 15 Yandy Díaz 1B/3B 5.34 Raised his FB and HR/FB rates as the season went on; could be primed for a legit breakout.
$3-$5 16 Josh Jung 3B 5.38 Such good on-base skills and the power started to show up last year; might be the last chance to bet on Jung.
$3-$5 17 Matt Chapman 3B 4.84 Had such a strong start to his career, but everything has gone the wrong way since then – maybe getting out of Oakland would help?
$3-$5 18 Cavan Biggio 3B/OF 4.85 Overly patient – great eye but also strikes out a decent amount and lacks power to make up for the Ks; one more year betting on the skills.
$3-$5 19 Alec Bohm 3B 4.78 Lacks the power for real Ottoneu upside, but the hit tool is really good and worth rostering.
$3-$5 20 Nolan Jones 3B/OF 4.75 Shine coming off, but still had a 113 wRC+ in Triple-A, and it was 132 in his last 71 games.
$3-$5 21 Evan Longoria 3B 4.80 Only managed half a season, but rebounded in a big way; love him as a bench bat especially if you are gambling on risky upside play as your starter.
$1-$2 22 Bobby Dalbec 1B/3B 5.29 Second half was great, but his Ks jumped and his BABIP was higher than I would expect, so I am still skeptical.
$1-$2 23 Mike Moustakas 1B/3B 5.08 If he can get back to his 2019-20 self, he’ll be 10 spots higher; not a bad gamble after an injury-riddled 2021.
$1-$2 24 Brett Baty 3B N/A Walks + Immense Raw Power = True Love.
$1-$2 25 Mark Vientos 3B N/A See above, but not as good an approach/hit tool, so I would rather bet on Baty.
$1-$2 26 Miguel Vargas 3B N/A It feels like no one is talking about him but he could be up this year and he crushed A and AA in 2021.
$1-$2 27 Patrick Wisdom 1B/3B/OF 4.55 I know he was pretty fun last year, but I am not super excited about strike out rates over 40%.
$1-$2 28 J.D. Davis 3B 4.83 Find this man a job so I can move him into my top 15.
$1-$2 29 Hunter Dozier 1B/3B/OF 4.53 One season of .522 SLG sandwiched bewteen four years of <.400 SLG. That power burst came with the 2019 rabbit ball.
$1-$2 30 Brian Anderson 3B 4.57 Not the most exciting option, but if he is healthy, he is a useful bench bat.
$1-$2 31 Jordan Walker 3B N/A Might be the third most exciting 3B prospect, but he is a couple years away.
$1-$2 32 Jhonkensy Noel 3B N/A Probably a 2023 guy, but the fact that he’s on the 40 man might force his timeline.
$1-$2 33 Jake Burger 3B 5.22 Might be interesting but his path to playing time is very cloudy.
$1-$2 34 Colton Welker 3B 4.87 He’s a 3B in Coors so why not?
$1-$2 35 Edwin Ríos 1B/3B 4.16 Playing time is a question, but the talent is real.
$0 36 Carter Kieboom 3B 4.76 He walks a lot, but nothing else is that enticing.
$0 37 Elehuris Montero 1B/3B N/A Big gains in K-rate in 2021, but I’d like to see that stick before investing.
$0 38 Johan Camargo 1B/3B 5.09 He’s been far from a 5 P/G guy the last few years, so not sure why we would expect him to suddenly make that leap now.
$0 39 Santiago Espinal 3B 4.33 Was solid for the Jay last year, but doubt he gets to keep the 3B job.
$0 40 Emmanuel Rivera 3B 4.78 Showed somewhat shocking power in Triple-A; enough to at least keep an eye on him.
$0 41 Maikel Franco 3B 4.43 There may be a chance for him to get some PA in DC, but that doesn’t mean you need to give him PA on your team.
$0 42 Jake Lamb 3B/OF 4.28 Needs a job to maybe be a platoon option for fantasy.
$0 43 Ehire Adrianza 3B/OF 4.27 Another guy who is maybe worth watching if he gets a job.
$0 44 Asdrúbal Cabrera 1B/3B 4.25 Seems to keep finding work and performing decently.
$0 45 Brady House Util N/A Way too far away for Ottoneu.
$0 46 Tyler Nevin 1B/3B/OF 4.16 If you only look at his 2021 MLB wOBA he looks exciting, but it was 18 PA and the rest of the profile isn’t as enticing.
$0 47 Coby Mayo 3B N/A Very intriguing, but not close enough to roster just yet.
$0 48 Curtis Mead 3B N/A The stats are better than the reports, so worth watching.





A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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Giant Slormember
3 months ago

Does McMahon (2B/3B) make more sense on this list rather than 2B — would he still be in the $10-$14 range (w/ Moncada and Hayes at 3B)?