Chad Young’s Ottoneu 3B Rankings
Third base is a weird position this year. There are some studs at the top, but it gets risky real fast. Want to bet on Alex Bregman regaining his earlier form? Or Austin Riley avoiding his earlier form? Think Anthony Rendon can stay on the field? Or maybe you would rather gamble on Josh Donaldson’s health? Pick your poison. Hopefully these rankings help.
Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | OF | SP | RP
In terms of eligibility, 3B vs. OF presents a challenge, as players have similar values at both spots. If Kris Bryant were OF-only or 3B-only instead of 1B/3B/OF, his value would not move much. I decided to include 3B/OF eligible players here, rather than in the OF. Because the values are similar, you should be able to easily compare players from this list to that one (once it publishes).
Here is the list – let me know what you think! As a reminder, the methodology and other details are covered at the top of the C list.
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Chad Young’s Ottoneu 3B Ranks
| Tier | Rank | Player | Eligibility | Projected P/G | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $38-$45 | 1 | Jose Ramirez | 3B | 6.55 | The best in the game and still in his prime. |
| $38-$45 | 2 | Rafael Devers | 3B | 6.46 | Over the last three years, Devers has actually outscored Ramirez, making this a very tight 1 vs 2. |
| $31-$37 | 3 | Manny Machado | 3B | 6.06 | Less risky than Bregman, given the latter’s struggles the last couple years. |
| $31-$37 | 4 | Alex Bregman | 3B | 6.21 | Has the upside to rejoin the top two with a great season, but not sure I buy it. |
| $25-$30 | 5 | Austin Riley | 1B/3B | 5.99 | Could easily see him in the Machado/Bregman tier but the track record isn’t long enough…yet. |
| $20-$24 | 6 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 5.89 | You can’t count on more than 130 or so games, but he keeps hitting when he plays – just make sure you have a solid backup. |
| $20-$24 | 7 | Anthony Rendon | 3B | 5.89 | Big drops since 2019 in EV are pretty concerning, but if he is healthy and hitting, he’s a bargain. |
| $20-$24 | 8 | Kris Bryant | 1B/3B/OF | 5.40 | Projections don’t quite buy that the power is all the way back; landing spot might shift his value quite a bit. |
| $15-$19 | 9 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | 5.60 | FB rate has been increasing, bringing down his BABIP and hiding declining power. |
| $10-$14 | 10 | Spencer Torkelson | 1B/3B | 6.01 | This time next year, he could be top five, but need to see him hit MLB pitching. |
| $15-$19 | 11 | Justin Turner | 3B | 5.65 | At 37, think we are going to see more missed time and more decline, but still solid value. |
| $10-$14 | 12 | Yoán Moncada | 3B | 5.34 | Batted ball data suggests there should be more power, but maybe not enough more to climb much higher than this. |
| $10-$14 | 13 | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 3B | 5.00 | With wrist issues behind him, I’ll bet on that hit tool. |
| $6-$9 | 14 | Jeimer Candelario | 3B | 5.07 | Projection feels a little low; think you can bank him for 5.25 P/G and 5.5 is more likely than 5.0. |
| $3-$5 | 15 | Yandy Díaz | 1B/3B | 5.34 | Raised his FB and HR/FB rates as the season went on; could be primed for a legit breakout. |
| $3-$5 | 16 | Josh Jung | 3B | 5.38 | Such good on-base skills and the power started to show up last year; might be the last chance to bet on Jung. |
| $3-$5 | 17 | Matt Chapman | 3B | 4.84 | Had such a strong start to his career, but everything has gone the wrong way since then – maybe getting out of Oakland would help? |
| $3-$5 | 18 | Cavan Biggio | 3B/OF | 4.85 | Overly patient – great eye but also strikes out a decent amount and lacks power to make up for the Ks; one more year betting on the skills. |
| $3-$5 | 19 | Alec Bohm | 3B | 4.78 | Lacks the power for real Ottoneu upside, but the hit tool is really good and worth rostering. |
| $3-$5 | 20 | Nolan Jones | 3B/OF | 4.75 | Shine coming off, but still had a 113 wRC+ in Triple-A, and it was 132 in his last 71 games. |
| $3-$5 | 21 | Evan Longoria | 3B | 4.80 | Only managed half a season, but rebounded in a big way; love him as a bench bat especially if you are gambling on risky upside play as your starter. |
| $1-$2 | 22 | Bobby Dalbec | 1B/3B | 5.29 | Second half was great, but his Ks jumped and his BABIP was higher than I would expect, so I am still skeptical. |
| $1-$2 | 23 | Mike Moustakas | 1B/3B | 5.08 | If he can get back to his 2019-20 self, he’ll be 10 spots higher; not a bad gamble after an injury-riddled 2021. |
| $1-$2 | 24 | Brett Baty | 3B | N/A | Walks + Immense Raw Power = True Love. |
| $1-$2 | 25 | Mark Vientos | 3B | N/A | See above, but not as good an approach/hit tool, so I would rather bet on Baty. |
| $1-$2 | 26 | Miguel Vargas | 3B | N/A | It feels like no one is talking about him but he could be up this year and he crushed A and AA in 2021. |
| $1-$2 | 27 | Patrick Wisdom | 1B/3B/OF | 4.55 | I know he was pretty fun last year, but I am not super excited about strike out rates over 40%. |
| $1-$2 | 28 | J.D. Davis | 3B | 4.83 | Find this man a job so I can move him into my top 15. |
| $1-$2 | 29 | Hunter Dozier | 1B/3B/OF | 4.53 | One season of .522 SLG sandwiched bewteen four years of <.400 SLG. That power burst came with the 2019 rabbit ball. |
| $1-$2 | 30 | Brian Anderson | 3B | 4.57 | Not the most exciting option, but if he is healthy, he is a useful bench bat. |
| $1-$2 | 31 | Jordan Walker | 3B | N/A | Might be the third most exciting 3B prospect, but he is a couple years away. |
| $1-$2 | 32 | Jhonkensy Noel | 3B | N/A | Probably a 2023 guy, but the fact that he’s on the 40 man might force his timeline. |
| $1-$2 | 33 | Jake Burger | 3B | 5.22 | Might be interesting but his path to playing time is very cloudy. |
| $1-$2 | 34 | Colton Welker | 3B | 4.87 | He’s a 3B in Coors so why not? |
| $1-$2 | 35 | Edwin Ríos | 1B/3B | 4.16 | Playing time is a question, but the talent is real. |
| $0 | 36 | Carter Kieboom | 3B | 4.76 | He walks a lot, but nothing else is that enticing. |
| $0 | 37 | Elehuris Montero | 1B/3B | N/A | Big gains in K-rate in 2021, but I’d like to see that stick before investing. |
| $0 | 38 | Johan Camargo | 1B/3B | 5.09 | He’s been far from a 5 P/G guy the last few years, so not sure why we would expect him to suddenly make that leap now. |
| $0 | 39 | Santiago Espinal | 3B | 4.33 | Was solid for the Jay last year, but doubt he gets to keep the 3B job. |
| $0 | 40 | Emmanuel Rivera | 3B | 4.78 | Showed somewhat shocking power in Triple-A; enough to at least keep an eye on him. |
| $0 | 41 | Maikel Franco | 3B | 4.43 | There may be a chance for him to get some PA in DC, but that doesn’t mean you need to give him PA on your team. |
| $0 | 42 | Jake Lamb | 3B/OF | 4.28 | Needs a job to maybe be a platoon option for fantasy. |
| $0 | 43 | Ehire Adrianza | 3B/OF | 4.27 | Another guy who is maybe worth watching if he gets a job. |
| $0 | 44 | Asdrúbal Cabrera | 1B/3B | 4.25 | Seems to keep finding work and performing decently. |
| $0 | 45 | Brady House | Util | N/A | Way too far away for Ottoneu. |
| $0 | 46 | Tyler Nevin | 1B/3B/OF | 4.16 | If you only look at his 2021 MLB wOBA he looks exciting, but it was 18 PA and the rest of the profile isn’t as enticing. |
| $0 | 47 | Coby Mayo | 3B | N/A | Very intriguing, but not close enough to roster just yet. |
| $0 | 48 | Curtis Mead | 3B | N/A | The stats are better than the reports, so worth watching. |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
Does McMahon (2B/3B) make more sense on this list rather than 2B — would he still be in the $10-$14 range (w/ Moncada and Hayes at 3B)?
He doesn’t really belong on this list because he is more valuable as a MI. Just using Depth Charts projections, he comes out as about a $12 2B but only about a $9 3B. I am a little down on him vs. the projection, which is why he is closer to the bottom of the $10-$14 tier at 2B. If he were 3B only, he would be in the $6-$9 tier, probably above Candelario.
I like that bullish Donaldson projection. He is still one of the 25 or so best hitters in the league when he’s playing, and that red hot statcast profile suggests he’s still got it. I’m much more aligned with ATC and THE BAT X than Steamer and ZiPS on his projection.
I’m optimistic Chapman’s last two seasons are aberrations. A spike in K% and FB%, although not easily fixed, is possibly the byproduct of his hip injury and hip surgery recovery.
My speculation comes down to the idea that bad habits form to compensate for pain or physical limitations and some evidence in profile. Chapman’s metrics show dealt with a decline in his hard% for liners and groundballs. This dip doesn’t mean he performed worse. However, along with his increased FB% and K%, it suggests there is a fundamental issue with his swing that he previously hadn’t manifested. The plate discipline metrics suggest there has been a change in his ability to create contact. Lower zone contact% and a higher SwStr%, both indicate a divergence in his swing.
All of these seem to be fixable. The hip should be back to 100% and he is likely aware that there are hitches in the swing that he needs to address. Considering this, it doesn’t seem unreasonable his contact and FB% can settle back into normal. This just leaves him with his limit LD% that is causing his BABIP to be subpar.
I don’t disagree that there are possible explanations that are all fixable… but there’s a lot going on here and it’s not easy to fix a swing even when it has far fewer issues than you’re describing. I’m just not willing to bet on him a) being fully healthy AND b) fully overhauling his swing AND c) having that swing change solve the problems.
Can you explain why you don’t think Chapman can be fully healed from hip surgery that was back on 9/2020 (4month recovery) going into 2022?
Calling it “fully overhauling his swing” is hyperbolic. What makes this a full overhaul? What are you seeing that makes you think this isn’t simply a swing change issue? What variable(s) am I missing?
I was more reacting to your comments – more K, more FB, lower hard hit. A swing change to address all of that is never simple which is why it’s so impressive when it happens. My valuation on him is basically in line with his 2020, watch is a bounce back from his 2021, but not to his 2019 peak. I think it’s unlikely he is as bad as he was last year or that he gets back to being as good as he was with the rabbit ball. Could be post a .350+ wOBA like he did in 2018-19? Sure. Could he post a .310 like in 2021? Sure. But I think the smart money is in the middle.
No Eduardo Escobar? Or is he in the MI category too?
Must be the same with Luis Urias.
Correct on both
Chad, regarding your comment about including 3B/OF players both here and in the OF list because the values are similar, the projection systems seem to disagree. Taking ATC as an example, it sees 3B with a $9 aPOS adjustment, and OF at $18.2 aPOS. The rest of the models are pretty much aligned with this idea.
Still using ATC as an example, I suspect this is because 25 players who are 3B eligible are projected to score 700 points (ATC’s $1 player at 3B) which means replacement value at the position is very high. Compared to OF, only 43 players are projected for 700 points (ATC’s $1 outfielder is at 625 points). Even if every OF-eligible player is used at OF, only half of teams will have an OF4 who can reach this threshold, and most OF5’s will be significantly below. More than likely some players will end up using OF3’s who aren’t even replacement-level at 3B. If you have a 3B/OF eligible player you’re definitely better off using him in the OF. The same isn’t necessarily true of 2B and SS where they are pretty much interchangeable.
Minor note first – I am not going to list 3B/OF guys on the OF sheet, just here. But that is just logistics. On your main point…
It looks like that $18 and $9 aPos are coming from the Auction Calculator and, to be honest, I am not sure what assumptions the calculator uses to set replacement level and determine positional values. It looks like they have 16 3B at $1 or more and IMO that is way too few. It shows 66 $1+ OF and that seems even lower. I also think that looking at total OF points to find the $1 OF is the wrong approach, since OF are so heavily platooned in Ottoneu leagues.
Talking to Justin Vibber about what he has in the Surplus Calculator, it looks like his gap between OF and 3B ($1.50-$2) is more than mine (<$1), but in either case, the difference is pretty minimal. Part of the reason I give tiers and not raw dollar amounts is because these projections are simply not that precise. The margin of error is large enough that even on a $2 difference between positions, they are functionally the same and whether you use a guy at 3B or OF will depend more on roster construction than anything else.
Personally, I feel like I have a long list of OF I really like if used correctly (the right matchups or parks) and I have less confidence at 3B. I have José Ramirez on a couple rosters, but other than that, if I added Kris Bryant (for example) to any of my teams, he would be my 3B, not an OF. I doubt that is consistently true across all managers, but not sure that changes the overall point – they are close to interchangeable.
Thanks for the detailed response. I think you’re right about the calculator figuring out all the available points at a position and coming up with a $ figure over what it perceives to be replacement level. It clearly doesn’t factor in P/G because a player who scores 500 points in 100 games is not the same as a player who scores 500 in 120.
I’m still not sure how I feel about using the calculator to determine replacement level. It does seem like you should be able to wait at 3B and plug with a less expensive player. Not saying you could get Chapman for $1 or even advocating that you should fill the position with a $1 player. But given how easy it may be to plug and play an inexpensive player and receive some decent raw totals, it seems like a position you could eschew paying for premium talent, and also avoid the various warts of the $15+ players. Instead use the savings to kick in the extra few dollars that gets you up in tiers of more premium positions.
One last thing, it definitely depends on the projection system you are using to build your rankings. ATC and THE BATX pretty clearly see a larger percentage of the stats being accumulated by the upper tiers of most positions, while the computer models (Steamer, Zips, Depth Charts) see more even distributions of point accumulation. This isn’t surprising given how computer models differ from models that have been massaged by human intervention. I have historically had more success using ATC and/or THE BATX for hitters and Depth Charts for pitchers. Maybe it’s expectation bias because they tend to be more aligned with my own personal valuations that gives higher weight to talent (pedigree, xstats) vs raw stats when compared to the basic computer models.
Whether or not you want to pay for potentially higher P/G that is paired with significant levels of uncertainty versus more bankable production should depend on how closely you want to monitor your team and waiver wire from day to day. Even though Ottoneu is more engaging than traditional 5×5 I think a much more relaxing experience is to have as much plug-and-play as possible during the season. Identifying the inexpensive players I *don’t* have to worry about is even more important than doing the same exercise for the expensive players.
TLDR; I think 3B is the position where you can find lots of inexpensive bankable production when compared to other positions this year. $3-5 should be able to afford a safe plug-and-play option who will provide solid production and allow you to focus those valuable saved dollars elsewhere like OF4, OF5, SP4, and SP5.
I have a $22 Rendon and $3 Longoria. Good combination?
It’s a little risky, given injury histories and games played plus the inconsistent performance history. I like those prices though.