Chad Young’s Ottoneu 2B Rankings by Chad Young January 21, 2022 Continuing my Ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings series, we’ll turn our attention to middle infield, starting with second base. The next two lists (this one and shortstop, coming early next week) will have some overlap. Because Ottoneu has a MI spot, the replacement level for 2B and SS end up being the same. This is something I have played around with over the years – some years SS looks weaker; sometimes it is 2B. Sometimes the position that is weaker at the top also has a lower replacement level; sometimes it doesn’t. But the replacement level for the two positions always end up so close that prioritizing one over the other (i.e., if a player has 2B and SS eligibility, they should be used at SS) becomes impossible. To avoid making a false decision on prioritization, arbitrarily changing the value of players at these two spots, I combine them. With that in mind, players who are 2B/SS eligible will appear today and in the next list. This should give managers a clear look at the overall MI rankings, as well as the rankings for each individual position. As a reminder, notes on my process and how these rankings were created are at the top of the C rankings. Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP Chad Young’s Ottoneu 2B Ranks Tier Rank Player Eligibility Projected P/G Notes $40-$50 1 Mookie Betts 2B/OF 6.23 If he’s healthy, he is going to win a lot of leagues this year. $31-$39 2 Trea Turner 2B/SS 5.95 I think he is more like a 7 P/G guy vs. Betts as a 7.5 P/G guy. $25-$30 3 Marcus Semien 2B/SS 5.55 Semien put up 6.77 P/G last year. Without looking, what did he put up in 2019? Ok, I’ll tell you – 6.97. In Oakland. He’ll miss Toronto, but also he’ll be fine. $25-$30 4 Jose Altuve 2B 5.79 The 2019 power burst (.252 ISO) isn’t coming back, but it doesn’t need to. $25-$30 5 Ozzie Albies 2B 5.69 His youth almost got him ahead of Altuve, and maybe Semien, but he has only had one season of >6 P/G, so he still needs to prove he belongs in atop this tier. $25-$30 6 Ketel Marte 2B/OF 5.86 Not as consistent as Albies, but higher peaks – might be the better choice if you are open to a little more boom-or-bust in your lineup. $20-$24 7 Brandon Lowe 2B/OF 5.65 Posted a 140 wRC+ vs. LHP in the second half last year, and that is the type of thing that could vault him over $30. $20-$24 8 Jonathan India 2B 5.38 It would help if he could make louder contact more often, but he’s very valuable even if he doesn’t. Growing into more power though, provides more upside. $15-$19 9 Jorge Polanco 2B/SS 5.33 I think his 2020 can be written off, due to an ankle injury and general 2020-ness, and I love what I see outside that weird year. $15-$19 10 Ty France 1B/2B/3B 5.45 As a prospect, he had big grades on his power and I wonder if there isn’t more coming? $15-$19 11 Gleyber Torres 2B/SS 5.42 115 second half wRC+. I think this price is fair, but I love him in this range because I think he could be a $25 guy next season. $15-$19 12 DJ LeMahieu 1B/2B/3B 5.15 I was skeptical after 2020, but his 2021 looks low, even to me. Little bounceback, but he’s not hitting 25 HR again. $10-$14 13 Jake Cronenworth 1B/2B/SS 5.14 Maybe this is just blind optimism, but I think he could put up a better season in 2022. And the plate discipline offers a nice floor. $10-$14 14 Enrique Hernández 2B/OF 5.11 His chase rate climbed in 2019-20, and once he brought it back down, he went back to being a solid bat. $10-$14 15 Javier Báez 2B/SS 4.88 K-rate and chase rate climbed and only his BABIP and HR/FB rate kept him afloat and now he’s moving to a tough park to hit? I’m out. $10-$14 16 Luis Urías 2B/SS/3B 5.18 Got more aggressive in the zone and his contact quality jumped; leading to the solid season we had been waiting for, including a 122 wRC+ starting late May. $10-$14 17 Ryan McMahon 2B/3B 5.42 Improved K-rate thanks to more contact, but the contact was weaker. Maybe he can find a way to increase barrels without increasing whiffs? $10-$14 18 Brendan Rodgers 2B/SS 5.32 If he can keep the strikeout rate around 20% and the games played over 100, he’s going to be a really useful player. $6-$9 19 Jean Segura 2B 4.98 He’s been solid four of the last five years and his projection might be selling that a little short. $6-$9 20 Chris Taylor 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.91 I imagine he’ll get into double digits in many leagues and I don’t think that is totally crazy. $6-$9 21 Whit Merrifield 2B/OF 4.92 He’s just not a great fit for this format and he is relatively low risk to bottom out. $6-$9 22 Kolten Wong 2B 4.90 Career year in 2021 and regression should be expected. $6-$9 23 Max Muncy 1B/2B 6.23 Easy top 5 if he were healthy, but as it stands, I am not taking any chances. $6-$9 24 Jonathan Schoop 1B/2B 4.97 A bit like Segura or Wong, but think he is the most likely to bottom out. $6-$9 25 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B/SS 4.82 He has some strong exit velocities, but his xwOBA was lower than his wOBA – he needs to find real improvement to breakout. $6-$9 26 Gavin Lux 2B/SS/OF 4.91 I like him near the bottom of this tier, but he’s got a very good chance to return no value. $6-$9 27 Luis Arraez 2B/3B/OF 5.05 Breakout potential is low, but Statcast data suggests he was a bit better than he looked on the surface last year. $3-$5 28 Jose Miranda 1B/2B/3B 5.38 He is going to have to find a spot but when he does, dude can hit. $3-$5 29 Josh Rojas 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.43 2021 P/G (4.50) hid a pretty solid P/G as a starter (5.32). Really valuable for OPL with all those positions. $3-$5 30 Jeff McNeil 2B/OF 5.09 If I were confident in him having a starting role, I would have him in the $10-$14 tier. $3-$5 31 Tommy Edman 2B/OF 4.69 His volume keeps his value up – even last year he was under 4.5 P/G and that was a career high. $3-$5 32 Eduardo Escobar 1B/2B/3B 4.64 Don’t think Citi Field is a great fit for him and he’ll have a lot of competition for plate appearances. $3-$5 33 Nolan Gorman 2B/3B 4.58 Excitng power and think he is a better player than Edman right now. Not sure the Cardinals agree. $3-$5 34 Tommy La Stella 2B/3B 5.04 Statcast data suggested his 2021 might not live up to 2019-20, but that was an overcorrection for sure. Some upside here. $3-$5 35 Abraham Toro 2B/3B 4.99 Puts the ball in play a ton but needs more consistent hard contact for that to be productive. $3-$5 36 Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 2B/SS/3B 4.66 Playing time will play a big role in his value, but think he’s an interesting post-hype type, given how strong his KBO numbers were. $1-$2 37 Wilmer Flores 1B/2B/3B 5.20 With a .327 and .333 wOBA vs. RHP the last two years, maybe Flores can turn himself into something more useful? But as a weak-side platoon, he’s just too limited. $1-$2 38 Nick Madrigal 2B 4.95 His two HR in 2021 were more than I expected, but he also only had two barrels. $1-$2 39 Nick Senzel 2B/OF 4.92 Apparently a knee injury bothered him all year and hampered his performance, but until he shows he can stay healthy, not sure why we would expect different. $1-$2 40 Nick Solak 2B 4.63 I propose that we henceforth refer to a group of disappointing prospects at the bottom of a positional ranking as a Nick. 38-40 is a Nick of 2B. $1-$2 41 Nico Hoerner 2B/SS 4.69 He’s the less extreme Madrigal – he doesn’t strike out as infrequently, his power isn’t quite as absent. $1-$2 42 Jonathan Villar 2B/SS/3B 4.61 He’s never been great in this format and now he doesn’t have a job, so he stays here until the lockout ends. $1-$2 43 Adam Frazier 2B/OF 4.37 I don’t think there was anything real about that first half, but he can be solid and there is apparently some upside. $1-$2 44 Joey Wendle 2B/SS/3B 4.32 Getting out of Tampa would have helped if he hadn’t gone to Miami. $1-$2 45 Nick Gonzales 2B #N/A Need to see him perform against more advanced pitching, given his age, but this could be the last chance to buy in cheap. $1-$2 46 Brad Miller 1B/2B/OF 5.18 Don’t know where he will play or how much, but he has hit pretty consistently. $1-$2 47 Michael Busch 2B #N/A Guys who walk a ton in the low minors don’t impress me; walking a ton with good power in Double-A gets my attention. $1-$2 48 Keston Hiura 1B/2B 4.61 He could still maybe figure it out. $0 49 Andrés Giménez 2B/SS 4.43 Looked really good in Columbus and still only 23. Worth watching. $0 50 Tony Kemp 2B/OF 4.70 Put up easily the best season of his career last year, but everything has to go right for him to be useful in this format. $0 51 Luis Garcia 2B/SS 4.91 Had an intriguing 2021 season, but the Nationals seemingly prefer Alcides Escobar and César Hernández, which is a little concerning. $0 52 Josh Harrison 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.51 Perfectly adequate replacement level guy to grab off the wire if you need to fill games; little more useful in OPL and probably worth a roster spot there, pending his job. $0 53 Jeter Downs 2B/SS 3.23 Shine really came off last year and given his limited time in Double-A, we really haven’t seen him hit in the high minors, which is concerning. $0 54 Isaac Paredes 2B/3B 4.91 No obvious path to playing time and his MLB performance to-date isn’t forcing his way in. $0 55 Hoy Park 2B/SS/3B/OF 4.50 I worry a lot of his value comes from facing bad pitchers who can’t throw strikes and won’t be there to bail him out in the Majors. $0 56 David Fletcher 2B/SS 4.21 Started swinging a lot more in 2021 and his best trait is not swinging. $0 57 Michael Chavis 1B/2B 4.53 Probably needs the DH in the NL to have a role and even then – can he hit MLB pitching consistently? $0 58 Vidal Bruján 2B/OF 4.32 Scouts have seen the potential for power to emerge, but if it doesn’t he won’t play up in FanGraphs points leagues. $0 59 Nick Gordon 2B/SS/OF 4.24 The .317 xwOBA gives you something to think about, if he can bring down the strikeouts, but he’s probably just a utility guy without much fantasy value. $0 60 César Hernández 2B 4.67 Only two career seasons over 5.0 P/G: One was five years ago, the other was the shortened 2020. $0 61 Willi Castro 2B/SS/OF 4.56 115.4 max EV from a MI is something to watch, but there is way too little of that and way too much soft contact. $0 62 Jed Lowrie 2B 4.74 Needs a job and playing time and health and a bounceback in his age 38 season to reach this projection. $0 63 Richie Palacios 2B/OF 4.38 The power isn’t exciting but this is a profile Cleveland has had success with, so worth keeping an eye on him. $0 64 Nick Yorke 2B #N/A Intriguing but too far away for me to have stronger thoughts than that. $0 65 Garrett Hampson 2B/OF 4.24 Forever a sleeper, but never waking up. $0 66 Edmundo Sosa 2B/SS 4.42 Did you know he had a 93rd percentile max exit velocity? I’ll put that on my watchlist. $0 67 Aledmys Díaz 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF 4.62 Less exciting than some of those ahead of him, but if he is playing regularly, he’s not going to kill you as an injury replacement. $0 68 Justin Foscue 2B #N/A Moderately interesting but seems like the Rangers are kinda set up the middle for a while. $0 69 Eddys Leonard 2B/SS/3B #N/A See above, except not the Rangers. $0 70 Brendan Donovan 1B/2B/3B 3.23 Not as heralded as Gorman, but look at his numbers and you have to wonder when he gets a shot. $0 71 Michael Stefanic 2B/3B 4.91 Good hit tool but sounds like the pop just isn’t there to be a useful regular. $0 72 Jose Rojas 2B/3B/OF 4.48 Likely to be out of the picture in Anaheim this year. $0 73 Rodolfo Castro 2B/3B 4.13 He moved quickly through Triple-A, but his performances in Double-A and MLB don’t give much reason for confidence. $0 74 Andy Ibáñez 1B/2B/3B 4.73 Strong results in his last two Triple-A seasons, but not worth getting excited over right now. $0 79 Ramón Urías 2B/SS/3B 4.49 A right-handed bat with no power suddenly hitting to the deepest LF in the majors. $0 80 Alcides Escobar 2B/SS 3.83 At his peak, this was not his format, and he is no longer at his peak.