Chad Young’s Ottoneu 1B Rankings
Our next stop on the tour of Ottoneu position rankings is 1B. As a reminder, I am only ranking players where they are likely to be used/most valuable, so players like Josh Bell (OF-eligible), Max Muncy (2B-eligible) and Yasmani Grandal (C-eligible) are not on this list. This is basically a list of anyone who is eligible at 1B, only.
Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
For a full reminder on the methodology, check out the top of the catcher rankings article.
There are two other names not on this list but worth discussing here: Shohei Ohtani and Nelson Cruz. I didn’t want to rank them with the 1B, since they are not 1B-eligible, but since I don’t plan to publish util-rankings, I’ll just mention that I have Ohtani in a $50-$55 tier overall, but that is roughly $35 for his offense and $15 for his pitching. I have Cruz in the $15-$20 tier.
Chad Young’s Ottoneu 1B Rankings
| Tier | Rank | Player | Eligibility | Projected P/G | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50-$60 | 1 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 7.71 | On the one hand, it’s awfully hard to bank on someone repeating a year like the one he just had; on the other, could he hit more FB, maybe run a higher BABIP, and continue to walk more? |
| $40-$45 | 2 | Freddie Freeman | 1B | 6.58 | So consistent and I don’t care where he lands, I wouldn’t move him over Vlad or under anyone else. |
| $29-$34 | 3 | Matt Olson | 1B | 6.48 | If he moves to a better stadium, his projected P/G will likely surpass Freeman and you might get a debate about the #2 1B. |
| $29-$34 | 4 | Pete Alonso | 1B | 6.49 | Barrel and Hard-hit rates are misleading – vs. 2019, they are up a bit, but on a per PA basis they are up a lot, thanks to improved K-rate. |
| $20-$24 | 5 | Rhys Hoskins | 1B | 5.95 | Got more aggressive last year and his contact quality jumped, resulting in a much higher xSLG; I wonder if he can bring back the walks and keep the harder contact? |
| $20-$24 | 6 | Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 6.04 | If you are really focused on 2022, I would take him over Hoskins – I expect he’ll be better this year but he’s 34 and the future is murky. |
| $10-$14 | 7 | C.J. Cron | 1B | 6.16 | Among 1B with 200+ road PA, his road wOBA was 18th; among 30 1B with 200+ home PA, his home wOBA was 2nd; I’d start him over everyone but Vlad when he is at Coors, but he’s a matchup play away. |
| $10-$14 | 8 | Brandon Belt | 1B | 5.48 | He’s been worth twice this since the start of 2020, but he needs to repeat that, defy the aging curve, and stay healthy to move up higher on this list. |
| $10-$14 | 9 | José Abreu | 1B | 5.61 | Think we are seeing the start of a decline, as his Statcast data is trending down. |
| $10-$14 | 10 | Trey Mancini | 1B | 5.32 | Roller coaster season, but I think the combination of a mid-season recurrence scare and running out of gas down the stretch hid an absolutely stellar run that hints at serious upside. |
| $10-$14 | 11 | Joey Votto | 1B | 5.76 | When a hitter starts hitting for more power and the explanation is, basically, they decided to hit for more power, I am skeptical; but when that hitter in Joey Votto? I’m in. |
| $10-$14 | 12 | Anthony Rizzo | 1B | 5.72 | Majority of his ISO loss the last couple years seems to be BABIP-related, so I have some optimism he can both get on base more and hit for more power than he did last year. |
| $5-$9 | 13 | Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 5.38 | Sometimes slow and steady wins the race. Lowe isn’t exciting but he played a ton and his reliability and solid performance was worth more than you think. |
| $5-$9 | 14 | Yuli Gurriel | 1B | 5.31 | Was better than Lowe last year, but similar xwOBA and their careers are likely headed opposite directions. |
| $3-$5 | 15 | Luke Voit | 1B | 5.54 | If you could guarantee he would be healthy and the starter in New York, I would have him closer to Belt and Cron, but there’s too much risk to pay for that. |
| $3-$5 | 16 | Nick Pratto | 1B | 5.62 | Purely on projected P/G, he could be much higher, which is pretty impressive given he has <300 PA at Triple-A. |
| $3-$5 | 17 | Frank Schwindel | 1B | 5.47 | He’s going to get a shot to prove that he can repeat 2021, and I think he is an interesting flyer, but he’s already 30 and I don’t think he’s a long-term solution. |
| $3-$5 | 18 | Triston Casas | 1B | 5.48 | I don’t think we see Casas for a while, but suspect he’ll be much higher on my 2023 list. |
| $3-$5 | 19 | Miguel Sanó | 1B | 5.27 | His swing-and-miss will always make him volatile and cap his value, but did you see that second half? I’d love to have him on my roster cheap. |
| $3-$5 | 20 | Jesús Aguilar | 1B | 5.61 | He’s never repeated his 2018 and he’s entering his age-32 season. |
| $1-$2 | 21 | Juan Yepez | 1B | 5.30 | 2021 moved him from “fun raw power” to “interesting game power with on-base skills and limited K” and the next step is getting him MLB PA. |
| $1-$2 | 22 | Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | #N/A | If Pratto didn’t exist, he’d be even higher, but being the second best 1B option (and maybe third behind MJ Melendez) in the org isn’t a great place to be. |
| $1-$2 | 23 | Rowdy Tellez | 1B | 5.66 | He hits the ball so hard, but the power hasn’t really materialized, so he remains an interesting upside play rather than a guy you can rely on. |
| $1-$2 | 24 | Ji-Man Choi | 1B | 5.06 | Still crushed righties in 2021. |
| $1-$2 | 25 | Seth Beer | 1B | 5.32 | He probably needs the DH and he is coming off shoulder surgery. I think the time to buy might be mid-season or after 2022. |
| $0 | 26 | Daniel Vogelbach | 1B | 5.42 | Fun player, but was non-tendered by the Brewers and it’s not like they are super strong at 1B. |
| $0 | 27 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | 5.04 | The simple fact that he will likely play a lot should give him some value, but I’m not convinced the Padres don’t bench him if it comes to that. |
| $0 | 28 | Carlos Santana | 1B | 5.05 | My request is that when Pratto displaces him, he gets sent to Cleveland to be a bench bat for a farewell tour, helping the Guardians win the division. |
| $0 | 29 | Christian Walker | 1B | 4.76 | Didn’t even offer a useful platoon split last year. |
| $0 | 30 | Blaze Jordan | Util | #N/A | Too far away to be anything other than a watchlist guy for now. |
| $0 | 31 | Bobby Bradley | 1B | 4.70 | He’ll get another chance in Cleveland but don’t think he’s the best bet to hold down that 1B job. |
| $0 | 32 | Miguel Cabrera | 1B | 4.74 | Going to be sad to keep ranking him this low for the next three seasons. |
| $0 | 33 | Evan White | 1B | 3.75 | Not sure where he fits in, and he has to prove his bat is worth fitting in first. |
| $0 | 34 | Michael Toglia | 1B | #N/A | Could be interesting as the replacement for CJ Cron in a couple years, but not rostering him now. |
| $0 | 35 | Colin Moran | 1B | 4.63 | If he gets a starting job, he might move up to the mid-20s, but not sure a regular lineup spot is in the cards. |
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A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's is the Managing Editor for RotoGraphs, and can be heard on the Keep or Kut Podcast. You can follow him on Bluesky @chadyoung.bsky.social.
Would Torkelson not be here because he **might* be 3B eligible?
Not just “might” – he is 3B eligible already.
Similar question for Tsutsugo who appears to have 1B locked up in PIT (also OF eligible).
He’ll be on the OF list
– Feels sparse on name values! What a change in scenery.
– Holy crap Miggy has 3 seasons left? I agree with the “sad” comment!
– My gut tells me I still trust Goldy over Hoskins next year; I think the age factor is the biggest to judge and I have no idea if Goldy’s age 35 season is the one where his decline really starts? I’m very encouraged that he had 12 steals last season – that’s not something you’d expect from a 1B in general, but certainly not one that is being hit by age decline.
For Ottoneu points leagues, those SB from Goldy aren’t that important. I agree it’s tough to parse Hoskins vs. Goldy this year, but that makes me think it won’t be that hard next year and will be very easy after that, hence the ranking.
Realistically Cabrera has just 2022 and 2023 – he has vesting options after that but they require a top 10 MVP finish that I am confident saying he won’t reach.
No Dalbec? Power is there
he’s 3B eligible
Great work, we need more Ottoneu content!
Also, everyone not already playing Ottoneu sucks, period. The only way to prove me wrong is to join an Otto league and start participating.
Will your Ottoneu ranks be added to the Draft Kit? https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2022-fangraphs-draft-kit/
Working on the draft kit…
No Walsh?
OF eligible. He’ll show up there.
Really appreciate your ottoneu content Chad, but I disagree with your “one position at a time” methodology of not ranking multi-position guys except on lists where *you* view them to be most valuable – in this case, guys in the comments such as Tork, Yoshi, Walsh. Where someone is going to use a player is dependent on team context, and we’re all making roster decisions at this time of year where having more names in the rankings would be helpful. I guess it’ll be a wash assuming all relevant players are ranked when all lists are out, but for now we’re missing out.
Also, looking back on your methodology comments in the Catchers list, you mentioned you’d rank Ty France here with the 1Bs but didn’t…
I can understand where you are coming from, but there are a few issues that cropped up last year when I did this that I am trying to avoid. One is that certain lists got long and crowded. Knowing the DJ LeMahieu is a low-rated 1B isn’t super helpful and it makes it harder to identify the 1B who actually matter. I started by figuring I would leave in players for whom 1B eligibility MIGHT matter in the future (hence the France comment) but when I started to build this list, I backed off that. The reason is the price tiers – France would show up on one tier for 2B and a much lower tier for 1B. Where someone is going to use a player is dependent on team context, as you say, but a player’s value at a position is only dependent on that player and the depth at the position. I don’t like the idea of posting a player in two or three different tiers.
The reality is, drafting a guy who can play OF or MI as your 1B doesn’t make a ton of sense – it’s a bad allocation of resources. That’s not to say you should NEVER use those guys at 1B. Drafting France as a 2B who has the ability to fill in at 1B on occasion is great; drafting him as your starting 1B is not.
This is particularly a 1B issue. Using France as an example, my raw projection based on Steamer and nothing else has him at $18 as a 2B, $17 as a 3B, but $7 as a 1B. Putting him on this list as a $5-$9 player is, in my opinion, misleading.
My plan moving forward is to have multi-position guys show up on 2B, SS, 3B, and OF if they qualify at multiple spots. 1B drops values so much (and C raises them so much) that the tiers become meaningless; that is not true with the rest of the spots.
Great list – thanks!
Any idea if your rankings will be included in the sidebar on the right along with Paul’s and Justin’s? I have a mathematical ranking based off various projection systems and am trying to fold analyst rankings into it. That little link location not only makes it easy to find manually, but also makes it easy for a webscraper to pull the data for me :).
I’ll check on this
I’m trying to create my auction values, and I seem to keep getting stuck on calculating the replacement value. Using steamer projections sorted by WAR, without eliminating multi-position eligibility, the 27th ranked 1B is Frank Schwindel and gives me a replacement value of 1.261 ( projected points 726 / projected PA 576). Using this chart above, it’s Eric Hosmer and gives a replacement value of 1.169 (642.5 / 550).
All that said, When I then use those replacement values to calculate, for example, Vlad Jr.’s dollar value, I come up way short of your projection above. Using Schwindel as the example: Points projected from steamer for Vlad —– 1195.8 – (RV 1.261 x Projected PA 656) = 368.584. I then take this number and multiply by .113 ( 4500 total dollars / 39680 PAR), giving me about $42. Likewise, Hosmer gets me to around $49.
What am I missing? Am I not grasping the concept of the math involved (not out of the realm of possibility…), or is this just a baseline and then need to adjust for other factors? Is WAR not the correct column to sort by?
I wouldn’t use WAR at all. WAR both values offense differently than FanGraphs Points and includes a defense component (base running, as well). There’s no need to sort on WAR. You could sort on P/G or P/PA depending how you are creating your values.