Chad Young’s Ottoneu 1B Rankings

Our next stop on the tour of Ottoneu position rankings is 1B. As a reminder, I am only ranking players where they are likely to be used/most valuable, so players like Josh Bell (OF-eligible), Max Muncy (2B-eligible) and Yasmani Grandal (C-eligible) are not on this list. This is basically a list of anyone who is eligible at 1B, only.

Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

For a full reminder on the methodology, check out the top of the catcher rankings article.

There are two other names not on this list but worth discussing here: Shohei Ohtani and Nelson Cruz. I didn’t want to rank them with the 1B, since they are not 1B-eligible, but since I don’t plan to publish util-rankings, I’ll just mention that I have Ohtani in a $50-$55 tier overall, but that is roughly $35 for his offense and $15 for his pitching. I have Cruz in the $15-$20 tier.

Chad Young’s Ottoneu 1B Rankings
Tier Rank Player Eligibility Projected P/G Notes
$50-$60 1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B 7.71 On the one hand, it’s awfully hard to bank on someone repeating a year like the one he just had; on the other, could he hit more FB, maybe run a higher BABIP, and continue to walk more?
$40-$45 2 Freddie Freeman 1B 6.58 So consistent and I don’t care where he lands, I wouldn’t move him over Vlad or under anyone else.
$29-$34 3 Matt Olson 1B 6.48 If he moves to a better stadium, his projected P/G will likely surpass Freeman and you might get a debate about the #2 1B.
$29-$34 4 Pete Alonso 1B 6.49 Barrel and Hard-hit rates are misleading – vs. 2019, they are up a bit, but on a per PA basis they are up a lot, thanks to improved K-rate.
$20-$24 5 Rhys Hoskins 1B 5.95 Got more aggressive last year and his contact quality jumped, resulting in a much higher xSLG; I wonder if he can bring back the walks and keep the harder contact?
$20-$24 6 Paul Goldschmidt 1B 6.04 If you are really focused on 2022, I would take him over Hoskins – I expect he’ll be better this year but he’s 34 and the future is murky.
$10-$14 7 C.J. Cron 1B 6.16 Among 1B with 200+ road PA, his road wOBA was 18th; among 30 1B with 200+ home PA, his home wOBA was 2nd; I’d start him over everyone but Vlad when he is at Coors, but he’s a matchup play away.
$10-$14 8 Brandon Belt 1B 5.48 He’s been worth twice this since the start of 2020, but he needs to repeat that, defy the aging curve, and stay healthy to move up higher on this list.
$10-$14 9 José Abreu 1B 5.61 Think we are seeing the start of a decline, as his Statcast data is trending down.
$10-$14 10 Trey Mancini 1B 5.32 Roller coaster season, but I think the combination of a mid-season recurrence scare and running out of gas down the stretch hid an absolutely stellar run that hints at serious upside.
$10-$14 11 Joey Votto 1B 5.76 When a hitter starts hitting for more power and the explanation is, basically, they decided to hit for more power, I am skeptical; but when that hitter in Joey Votto? I’m in.
$10-$14 12 Anthony Rizzo 1B 5.72 Majority of his ISO loss the last couple years seems to be BABIP-related, so I have some optimism he can both get on base more and hit for more power than he did last year.
$5-$9 13 Nathaniel Lowe 1B 5.38 Sometimes slow and steady wins the race. Lowe isn’t exciting but he played a ton and his reliability and solid performance was worth more than you think.
$5-$9 14 Yuli Gurriel 1B 5.31 Was better than Lowe last year, but similar xwOBA and their careers are likely headed opposite directions.
$3-$5 15 Luke Voit 1B 5.54 If you could guarantee he would be healthy and the starter in New York, I would have him closer to Belt and Cron, but there’s too much risk to pay for that.
$3-$5 16 Nick Pratto 1B 5.62 Purely on projected P/G, he could be much higher, which is pretty impressive given he has <300 PA at Triple-A.
$3-$5 17 Frank Schwindel 1B 5.47 He’s going to get a shot to prove that he can repeat 2021, and I think he is an interesting flyer, but he’s already 30 and I don’t think he’s a long-term solution.
$3-$5 18 Triston Casas 1B 5.48 I don’t think we see Casas for a while, but suspect he’ll be much higher on my 2023 list.
$3-$5 19 Miguel Sanó 1B 5.27 His swing-and-miss will always make him volatile and cap his value, but did you see that second half? I’d love to have him on my roster cheap.
$3-$5 20 Jesús Aguilar 1B 5.61 He’s never repeated his 2018 and he’s entering his age-32 season.
$1-$2 21 Juan Yepez 1B 5.30 2021 moved him from “fun raw power” to “interesting game power with on-base skills and limited K” and the next step is getting him MLB PA.
$1-$2 22 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B #N/A If Pratto didn’t exist, he’d be even higher, but being the second best 1B option (and maybe third behind MJ Melendez) in the org isn’t a great place to be.
$1-$2 23 Rowdy Tellez 1B 5.66 He hits the ball so hard, but the power hasn’t really materialized, so he remains an interesting upside play rather than a guy you can rely on.
$1-$2 24 Ji-Man Choi 1B 5.06 Still crushed righties in 2021.
$1-$2 25 Seth Beer 1B 5.32 He probably needs the DH and he is coming off shoulder surgery. I think the time to buy might be mid-season or after 2022.
$0 26 Daniel Vogelbach 1B 5.42 Fun player, but was non-tendered by the Brewers and it’s not like they are super strong at 1B.
$0 27 Eric Hosmer 1B 5.04 The simple fact that he will likely play a lot should give him some value, but I’m not convinced the Padres don’t bench him if it comes to that.
$0 28 Carlos Santana 1B 5.05 My request is that when Pratto displaces him, he gets sent to Cleveland to be a bench bat for a farewell tour, helping the Guardians win the division.
$0 29 Christian Walker 1B 4.76 Didn’t even offer a useful platoon split last year.
$0 30 Blaze Jordan Util #N/A Too far away to be anything other than a watchlist guy for now.
$0 31 Bobby Bradley 1B 4.70 He’ll get another chance in Cleveland but don’t think he’s the best bet to hold down that 1B job.
$0 32 Miguel Cabrera 1B 4.74 Going to be sad to keep ranking him this low for the next three seasons.
$0 33 Evan White 1B 3.75 Not sure where he fits in, and he has to prove his bat is worth fitting in first.
$0 34 Michael Toglia 1B #N/A Could be interesting as the replacement for CJ Cron in a couple years, but not rostering him now.
$0 35 Colin Moran 1B 4.63 If he gets a starting job, he might move up to the mid-20s, but not sure a regular lineup spot is in the cards.

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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10 months ago

Would Torkelson not be here because he **might* be 3B eligible?