Chad Young’s Ottoneu 2B Rankings

by Chad Young

January 21, 2022

Continuing my Ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings series, we’ll turn our attention to middle infield, starting with second base. The next two lists (this one and shortstop, coming early next week) will have some overlap. Because Ottoneu has a MI spot, the replacement level for 2B and SS end up being the same. This is something I have played around with over the years – some years SS looks weaker; sometimes it is 2B. Sometimes the position that is weaker at the top also has a lower replacement level; sometimes it doesn’t. But the replacement level for the two positions always end up so close that prioritizing one over the other (i.e., if a player has 2B and SS eligibility, they should be used at SS) becomes impossible. To avoid making a false decision on prioritization, arbitrarily changing the value of players at these two spots, I combine them.

With that in mind, players who are 2B/SS eligible will appear today and in the next list. This should give managers a clear look at the overall MI rankings, as well as the rankings for each individual position. As a reminder, notes on my process and how these rankings were created are at the top of the C rankings.

Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP

Chad Young’s Ottoneu 2B Ranks

Tier	Rank	Player	Eligibility	Projected P/G	Notes
$40-$50	1	Mookie Betts	2B/OF	6.23	If he’s healthy, he is going to win a lot of leagues this year.
$31-$39	2	Trea Turner	2B/SS	5.95	I think he is more like a 7 P/G guy vs. Betts as a 7.5 P/G guy.
$25-$30	3	Marcus Semien	2B/SS	5.55	Semien put up 6.77 P/G last year. Without looking, what did he put up in 2019? Ok, I’ll tell you – 6.97. In Oakland. He’ll miss Toronto, but also he’ll be fine.
$25-$30	4	Jose Altuve	2B	5.79	The 2019 power burst (.252 ISO) isn’t coming back, but it doesn’t need to.
$25-$30	5	Ozzie Albies	2B	5.69	His youth almost got him ahead of Altuve, and maybe Semien, but he has only had one season of >6 P/G, so he still needs to prove he belongs in atop this tier.
$25-$30	6	Ketel Marte	2B/OF	5.86	Not as consistent as Albies, but higher peaks – might be the better choice if you are open to a little more boom-or-bust in your lineup.
$20-$24	7	Brandon Lowe	2B/OF	5.65	Posted a 140 wRC+ vs. LHP in the second half last year, and that is the type of thing that could vault him over $30.
$20-$24	8	Jonathan India	2B	5.38	It would help if he could make louder contact more often, but he’s very valuable even if he doesn’t. Growing into more power though, provides more upside.
$15-$19	9	Jorge Polanco	2B/SS	5.33	I think his 2020 can be written off, due to an ankle injury and general 2020-ness, and I love what I see outside that weird year.
$15-$19	10	Ty France	1B/2B/3B	5.45	As a prospect, he had big grades on his power and I wonder if there isn’t more coming?
$15-$19	11	Gleyber Torres	2B/SS	5.42	115 second half wRC+. I think this price is fair, but I love him in this range because I think he could be a $25 guy next season.
$15-$19	12	DJ LeMahieu	1B/2B/3B	5.15	I was skeptical after 2020, but his 2021 looks low, even to me. Little bounceback, but he’s not hitting 25 HR again.
$10-$14	13	Jake Cronenworth	1B/2B/SS	5.14	Maybe this is just blind optimism, but I think he could put up a better season in 2022. And the plate discipline offers a nice floor.
$10-$14	14	Enrique Hernández	2B/OF	5.11	His chase rate climbed in 2019-20, and once he brought it back down, he went back to being a solid bat.
$10-$14	15	Javier Báez	2B/SS	4.88	K-rate and chase rate climbed and only his BABIP and HR/FB rate kept him afloat and now he’s moving to a tough park to hit? I’m out.
$10-$14	16	Luis Urías	2B/SS/3B	5.18	Got more aggressive in the zone and his contact quality jumped; leading to the solid season we had been waiting for, including a 122 wRC+ starting late May.
$10-$14	17	Ryan McMahon	2B/3B	5.42	Improved K-rate thanks to more contact, but the contact was weaker. Maybe he can find a way to increase barrels without increasing whiffs?
$10-$14	18	Brendan Rodgers	2B/SS	5.32	If he can keep the strikeout rate around 20% and the games played over 100, he’s going to be a really useful player.
$6-$9	19	Jean Segura	2B	4.98	He’s been solid four of the last five years and his projection might be selling that a little short.
$6-$9	20	Chris Taylor	2B/SS/3B/OF	4.91	I imagine he’ll get into double digits in many leagues and I don’t think that is totally crazy.
$6-$9	21	Whit Merrifield	2B/OF	4.92	He’s just not a great fit for this format and he is relatively low risk to bottom out.
$6-$9	22	Kolten Wong	2B	4.90	Career year in 2021 and regression should be expected.
$6-$9	23	Max Muncy	1B/2B	6.23	Easy top 5 if he were healthy, but as it stands, I am not taking any chances.
$6-$9	24	Jonathan Schoop	1B/2B	4.97	A bit like Segura or Wong, but think he is the most likely to bottom out.
$6-$9	25	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B/SS	4.82	He has some strong exit velocities, but his xwOBA was lower than his wOBA – he needs to find real improvement to breakout.
$6-$9	26	Gavin Lux	2B/SS/OF	4.91	I like him near the bottom of this tier, but he’s got a very good chance to return no value.
$6-$9	27	Luis Arraez	2B/3B/OF	5.05	Breakout potential is low, but Statcast data suggests he was a bit better than he looked on the surface last year.
$3-$5	28	Jose Miranda	1B/2B/3B	5.38	He is going to have to find a spot but when he does, dude can hit.
$3-$5	29	Josh Rojas	2B/SS/3B/OF	4.43	2021 P/G (4.50) hid a pretty solid P/G as a starter (5.32). Really valuable for OPL with all those positions.
$3-$5	30	Jeff McNeil	2B/OF	5.09	If I were confident in him having a starting role, I would have him in the $10-$14 tier.
$3-$5	31	Tommy Edman	2B/OF	4.69	His volume keeps his value up – even last year he was under 4.5 P/G and that was a career high.
$3-$5	32	Eduardo Escobar	1B/2B/3B	4.64	Don’t think Citi Field is a great fit for him and he’ll have a lot of competition for plate appearances.
$3-$5	33	Nolan Gorman	2B/3B	4.58	Excitng power and think he is a better player than Edman right now. Not sure the Cardinals agree.
$3-$5	34	Tommy La Stella	2B/3B	5.04	Statcast data suggested his 2021 might not live up to 2019-20, but that was an overcorrection for sure. Some upside here.
$3-$5	35	Abraham Toro	2B/3B	4.99	Puts the ball in play a ton but needs more consistent hard contact for that to be productive.
$3-$5	36	Ha-Seong Kim 김하성	2B/SS/3B	4.66	Playing time will play a big role in his value, but think he’s an interesting post-hype type, given how strong his KBO numbers were.
$1-$2	37	Wilmer Flores	1B/2B/3B	5.20	With a .327 and .333 wOBA vs. RHP the last two years, maybe Flores can turn himself into something more useful? But as a weak-side platoon, he’s just too limited.
$1-$2	38	Nick Madrigal	2B	4.95	His two HR in 2021 were more than I expected, but he also only had two barrels.
$1-$2	39	Nick Senzel	2B/OF	4.92	Apparently a knee injury bothered him all year and hampered his performance, but until he shows he can stay healthy, not sure why we would expect different.
$1-$2	40	Nick Solak	2B	4.63	I propose that we henceforth refer to a group of disappointing prospects at the bottom of a positional ranking as a Nick. 38-40 is a Nick of 2B.
$1-$2	41	Nico Hoerner	2B/SS	4.69	He’s the less extreme Madrigal – he doesn’t strike out as infrequently, his power isn’t quite as absent.
$1-$2	42	Jonathan Villar	2B/SS/3B	4.61	He’s never been great in this format and now he doesn’t have a job, so he stays here until the lockout ends.
$1-$2	43	Adam Frazier	2B/OF	4.37	I don’t think there was anything real about that first half, but he can be solid and there is apparently some upside.
$1-$2	44	Joey Wendle	2B/SS/3B	4.32	Getting out of Tampa would have helped if he hadn’t gone to Miami.
$1-$2	45	Nick Gonzales	2B	#N/A	Need to see him perform against more advanced pitching, given his age, but this could be the last chance to buy in cheap.
$1-$2	46	Brad Miller	1B/2B/OF	5.18	Don’t know where he will play or how much, but he has hit pretty consistently.
$1-$2	47	Michael Busch	2B	#N/A	Guys who walk a ton in the low minors don’t impress me; walking a ton with good power in Double-A gets my attention.
$1-$2	48	Keston Hiura	1B/2B	4.61	He could still maybe figure it out.
$0	49	Andrés Giménez	2B/SS	4.43	Looked really good in Columbus and still only 23. Worth watching.
$0	50	Tony Kemp	2B/OF	4.70	Put up easily the best season of his career last year, but everything has to go right for him to be useful in this format.
$0	51	Luis Garcia	2B/SS	4.91	Had an intriguing 2021 season, but the Nationals seemingly prefer Alcides Escobar and César Hernández, which is a little concerning.
$0	52	Josh Harrison	2B/SS/3B/OF	4.51	Perfectly adequate replacement level guy to grab off the wire if you need to fill games; little more useful in OPL and probably worth a roster spot there, pending his job.
$0	53	Jeter Downs	2B/SS	3.23	Shine really came off last year and given his limited time in Double-A, we really haven’t seen him hit in the high minors, which is concerning.
$0	54	Isaac Paredes	2B/3B	4.91	No obvious path to playing time and his MLB performance to-date isn’t forcing his way in.
$0	55	Hoy Park	2B/SS/3B/OF	4.50	I worry a lot of his value comes from facing bad pitchers who can’t throw strikes and won’t be there to bail him out in the Majors.
$0	56	David Fletcher	2B/SS	4.21	Started swinging a lot more in 2021 and his best trait is not swinging.
$0	57	Michael Chavis	1B/2B	4.53	Probably needs the DH in the NL to have a role and even then – can he hit MLB pitching consistently?
$0	58	Vidal Bruján	2B/OF	4.32	Scouts have seen the potential for power to emerge, but if it doesn’t he won’t play up in FanGraphs points leagues.
$0	59	Nick Gordon	2B/SS/OF	4.24	The .317 xwOBA gives you something to think about, if he can bring down the strikeouts, but he’s probably just a utility guy without much fantasy value.
$0	60	César Hernández	2B	4.67	Only two career seasons over 5.0 P/G: One was five years ago, the other was the shortened 2020.
$0	61	Willi Castro	2B/SS/OF	4.56	115.4 max EV from a MI is something to watch, but there is way too little of that and way too much soft contact.
$0	62	Jed Lowrie	2B	4.74	Needs a job and playing time and health and a bounceback in his age 38 season to reach this projection.
$0	63	Richie Palacios	2B/OF	4.38	The power isn’t exciting but this is a profile Cleveland has had success with, so worth keeping an eye on him.
$0	64	Nick Yorke	2B	#N/A	Intriguing but too far away for me to have stronger thoughts than that.
$0	65	Garrett Hampson	2B/OF	4.24	Forever a sleeper, but never waking up.
$0	66	Edmundo Sosa	2B/SS	4.42	Did you know he had a 93rd percentile max exit velocity? I’ll put that on my watchlist.
$0	67	Aledmys Díaz	1B/2B/SS/3B/OF	4.62	Less exciting than some of those ahead of him, but if he is playing regularly, he’s not going to kill you as an injury replacement.
$0	68	Justin Foscue	2B	#N/A	Moderately interesting but seems like the Rangers are kinda set up the middle for a while.
$0	69	Eddys Leonard	2B/SS/3B	#N/A	See above, except not the Rangers.
$0	70	Brendan Donovan	1B/2B/3B	3.23	Not as heralded as Gorman, but look at his numbers and you have to wonder when he gets a shot.
$0	71	Michael Stefanic	2B/3B	4.91	Good hit tool but sounds like the pop just isn’t there to be a useful regular.
$0	72	Jose Rojas	2B/3B/OF	4.48	Likely to be out of the picture in Anaheim this year.
$0	73	Rodolfo Castro	2B/3B	4.13	He moved quickly through Triple-A, but his performances in Double-A and MLB don’t give much reason for confidence.
$0	74	Andy Ibáñez	1B/2B/3B	4.73	Strong results in his last two Triple-A seasons, but not worth getting excited over right now.
$0	79	Ramón Urías	2B/SS/3B	4.49	A right-handed bat with no power suddenly hitting to the deepest LF in the majors.
$0	80	Alcides Escobar	2B/SS	3.83	At his peak, this was not his format, and he is no longer at his peak.

5 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Prophet of the Sandlot

2 years ago

Ty France takes a big jump…tell us more.

dl80

Reply to Prophet of the Sandlot

I don’t see it.

He had one high-power season in the minors (2019), that was likely the result of the bouncy ball. His power the rest of the time has been pretty meh, including in the majors.

He’s fine as a third basemen, but they are moving him to first this year, where his offense isn’t likely to be anything special going forward.

Chad Youngmember

Reply to dl80

He also had 22 HR in 2018 and the power grades from scouts were strong enough to suggested >20 HR per season. The nice thing is, that power upside is just bonus – he can match this ranking just by repeating 2021.

As for 1B, he was 1B 21 in 2021. Among those ahead of him are Schwindel’s SSS, Grandal at C, Schwarber in the OF, Riley at 3B, 14 PA from Tyler Nevin, and Kris Bryant who should keep OF and/or 3B. If guys like Walsh get OF again, and France ends up as 1B only, he’s got a real shot to be top 15, which makes him a decent option to start as a 1B or Util. A lot can happen between now and 2023, so no stakes in the ground here, but he’s not on a path to irrelevance or anything.

I don’t think this is a huge jump. He was 5.56 which was 2B 11; I have him 10th. The guy he jumped in my rankings is Muncy, who would still be ahead of him if healthy. So this isn’t really a jump at all. It’s just where he is. If France has a power breakout, he’ll move up from 10th.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG