Chad Young’s Ottoneu 2B Rankings
Continuing my Ottoneu FanGraphs Points rankings series, we’ll turn our attention to middle infield, starting with second base. The next two lists (this one and shortstop, coming early next week) will have some overlap. Because Ottoneu has a MI spot, the replacement level for 2B and SS end up being the same. This is something I have played around with over the years – some years SS looks weaker; sometimes it is 2B. Sometimes the position that is weaker at the top also has a lower replacement level; sometimes it doesn’t. But the replacement level for the two positions always end up so close that prioritizing one over the other (i.e., if a player has 2B and SS eligibility, they should be used at SS) becomes impossible. To avoid making a false decision on prioritization, arbitrarily changing the value of players at these two spots, I combine them.
With that in mind, players who are 2B/SS eligible will appear today and in the next list. This should give managers a clear look at the overall MI rankings, as well as the rankings for each individual position. As a reminder, notes on my process and how these rankings were created are at the top of the C rankings.
Chad’s Other Ottoneu Rankings: C | 1B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP
Chad Young’s Ottoneu 2B Ranks
| Tier | Rank | Player | Eligibility | Projected P/G | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40-$50 | 1 | Mookie Betts | 2B/OF | 6.23 | If he’s healthy, he is going to win a lot of leagues this year. |
| $31-$39 | 2 | Trea Turner | 2B/SS | 5.95 | I think he is more like a 7 P/G guy vs. Betts as a 7.5 P/G guy. |
| $25-$30 | 3 | Marcus Semien | 2B/SS | 5.55 | Semien put up 6.77 P/G last year. Without looking, what did he put up in 2019? Ok, I’ll tell you – 6.97. In Oakland. He’ll miss Toronto, but also he’ll be fine. |
| $25-$30 | 4 | Jose Altuve | 2B | 5.79 | The 2019 power burst (.252 ISO) isn’t coming back, but it doesn’t need to. |
| $25-$30 | 5 | Ozzie Albies | 2B | 5.69 | His youth almost got him ahead of Altuve, and maybe Semien, but he has only had one season of >6 P/G, so he still needs to prove he belongs in atop this tier. |
| $25-$30 | 6 | Ketel Marte | 2B/OF | 5.86 | Not as consistent as Albies, but higher peaks – might be the better choice if you are open to a little more boom-or-bust in your lineup. |
| $20-$24 | 7 | Brandon Lowe | 2B/OF | 5.65 | Posted a 140 wRC+ vs. LHP in the second half last year, and that is the type of thing that could vault him over $30. |
| $20-$24 | 8 | Jonathan India | 2B | 5.38 | It would help if he could make louder contact more often, but he’s very valuable even if he doesn’t. Growing into more power though, provides more upside. |
| $15-$19 | 9 | Jorge Polanco | 2B/SS | 5.33 | I think his 2020 can be written off, due to an ankle injury and general 2020-ness, and I love what I see outside that weird year. |
| $15-$19 | 10 | Ty France | 1B/2B/3B | 5.45 | As a prospect, he had big grades on his power and I wonder if there isn’t more coming? |
| $15-$19 | 11 | Gleyber Torres | 2B/SS | 5.42 | 115 second half wRC+. I think this price is fair, but I love him in this range because I think he could be a $25 guy next season. |
| $15-$19 | 12 | DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | 5.15 | I was skeptical after 2020, but his 2021 looks low, even to me. Little bounceback, but he’s not hitting 25 HR again. |
| $10-$14 | 13 | Jake Cronenworth | 1B/2B/SS | 5.14 | Maybe this is just blind optimism, but I think he could put up a better season in 2022. And the plate discipline offers a nice floor. |
| $10-$14 | 14 | Enrique Hernández | 2B/OF | 5.11 | His chase rate climbed in 2019-20, and once he brought it back down, he went back to being a solid bat. |
| $10-$14 | 15 | Javier Báez | 2B/SS | 4.88 | K-rate and chase rate climbed and only his BABIP and HR/FB rate kept him afloat and now he’s moving to a tough park to hit? I’m out. |
| $10-$14 | 16 | Luis Urías | 2B/SS/3B | 5.18 | Got more aggressive in the zone and his contact quality jumped; leading to the solid season we had been waiting for, including a 122 wRC+ starting late May. |
| $10-$14 | 17 | Ryan McMahon | 2B/3B | 5.42 | Improved K-rate thanks to more contact, but the contact was weaker. Maybe he can find a way to increase barrels without increasing whiffs? |
| $10-$14 | 18 | Brendan Rodgers | 2B/SS | 5.32 | If he can keep the strikeout rate around 20% and the games played over 100, he’s going to be a really useful player. |
| $6-$9 | 19 | Jean Segura | 2B | 4.98 | He’s been solid four of the last five years and his projection might be selling that a little short. |
| $6-$9 | 20 | Chris Taylor | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.91 | I imagine he’ll get into double digits in many leagues and I don’t think that is totally crazy. |
| $6-$9 | 21 | Whit Merrifield | 2B/OF | 4.92 | He’s just not a great fit for this format and he is relatively low risk to bottom out. |
| $6-$9 | 22 | Kolten Wong | 2B | 4.90 | Career year in 2021 and regression should be expected. |
| $6-$9 | 23 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B | 6.23 | Easy top 5 if he were healthy, but as it stands, I am not taking any chances. |
| $6-$9 | 24 | Jonathan Schoop | 1B/2B | 4.97 | A bit like Segura or Wong, but think he is the most likely to bottom out. |
| $6-$9 | 25 | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B/SS | 4.82 | He has some strong exit velocities, but his xwOBA was lower than his wOBA – he needs to find real improvement to breakout. |
| $6-$9 | 26 | Gavin Lux | 2B/SS/OF | 4.91 | I like him near the bottom of this tier, but he’s got a very good chance to return no value. |
| $6-$9 | 27 | Luis Arraez | 2B/3B/OF | 5.05 | Breakout potential is low, but Statcast data suggests he was a bit better than he looked on the surface last year. |
| $3-$5 | 28 | Jose Miranda | 1B/2B/3B | 5.38 | He is going to have to find a spot but when he does, dude can hit. |
| $3-$5 | 29 | Josh Rojas | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.43 | 2021 P/G (4.50) hid a pretty solid P/G as a starter (5.32). Really valuable for OPL with all those positions. |
| $3-$5 | 30 | Jeff McNeil | 2B/OF | 5.09 | If I were confident in him having a starting role, I would have him in the $10-$14 tier. |
| $3-$5 | 31 | Tommy Edman | 2B/OF | 4.69 | His volume keeps his value up – even last year he was under 4.5 P/G and that was a career high. |
| $3-$5 | 32 | Eduardo Escobar | 1B/2B/3B | 4.64 | Don’t think Citi Field is a great fit for him and he’ll have a lot of competition for plate appearances. |
| $3-$5 | 33 | Nolan Gorman | 2B/3B | 4.58 | Excitng power and think he is a better player than Edman right now. Not sure the Cardinals agree. |
| $3-$5 | 34 | Tommy La Stella | 2B/3B | 5.04 | Statcast data suggested his 2021 might not live up to 2019-20, but that was an overcorrection for sure. Some upside here. |
| $3-$5 | 35 | Abraham Toro | 2B/3B | 4.99 | Puts the ball in play a ton but needs more consistent hard contact for that to be productive. |
| $3-$5 | 36 | Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 | 2B/SS/3B | 4.66 | Playing time will play a big role in his value, but think he’s an interesting post-hype type, given how strong his KBO numbers were. |
| $1-$2 | 37 | Wilmer Flores | 1B/2B/3B | 5.20 | With a .327 and .333 wOBA vs. RHP the last two years, maybe Flores can turn himself into something more useful? But as a weak-side platoon, he’s just too limited. |
| $1-$2 | 38 | Nick Madrigal | 2B | 4.95 | His two HR in 2021 were more than I expected, but he also only had two barrels. |
| $1-$2 | 39 | Nick Senzel | 2B/OF | 4.92 | Apparently a knee injury bothered him all year and hampered his performance, but until he shows he can stay healthy, not sure why we would expect different. |
| $1-$2 | 40 | Nick Solak | 2B | 4.63 | I propose that we henceforth refer to a group of disappointing prospects at the bottom of a positional ranking as a Nick. 38-40 is a Nick of 2B. |
| $1-$2 | 41 | Nico Hoerner | 2B/SS | 4.69 | He’s the less extreme Madrigal – he doesn’t strike out as infrequently, his power isn’t quite as absent. |
| $1-$2 | 42 | Jonathan Villar | 2B/SS/3B | 4.61 | He’s never been great in this format and now he doesn’t have a job, so he stays here until the lockout ends. |
| $1-$2 | 43 | Adam Frazier | 2B/OF | 4.37 | I don’t think there was anything real about that first half, but he can be solid and there is apparently some upside. |
| $1-$2 | 44 | Joey Wendle | 2B/SS/3B | 4.32 | Getting out of Tampa would have helped if he hadn’t gone to Miami. |
| $1-$2 | 45 | Nick Gonzales | 2B | #N/A | Need to see him perform against more advanced pitching, given his age, but this could be the last chance to buy in cheap. |
| $1-$2 | 46 | Brad Miller | 1B/2B/OF | 5.18 | Don’t know where he will play or how much, but he has hit pretty consistently. |
| $1-$2 | 47 | Michael Busch | 2B | #N/A | Guys who walk a ton in the low minors don’t impress me; walking a ton with good power in Double-A gets my attention. |
| $1-$2 | 48 | Keston Hiura | 1B/2B | 4.61 | He could still maybe figure it out. |
| $0 | 49 | Andrés Giménez | 2B/SS | 4.43 | Looked really good in Columbus and still only 23. Worth watching. |
| $0 | 50 | Tony Kemp | 2B/OF | 4.70 | Put up easily the best season of his career last year, but everything has to go right for him to be useful in this format. |
| $0 | 51 | Luis Garcia | 2B/SS | 4.91 | Had an intriguing 2021 season, but the Nationals seemingly prefer Alcides Escobar and César Hernández, which is a little concerning. |
| $0 | 52 | Josh Harrison | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.51 | Perfectly adequate replacement level guy to grab off the wire if you need to fill games; little more useful in OPL and probably worth a roster spot there, pending his job. |
| $0 | 53 | Jeter Downs | 2B/SS | 3.23 | Shine really came off last year and given his limited time in Double-A, we really haven’t seen him hit in the high minors, which is concerning. |
| $0 | 54 | Isaac Paredes | 2B/3B | 4.91 | No obvious path to playing time and his MLB performance to-date isn’t forcing his way in. |
| $0 | 55 | Hoy Park | 2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.50 | I worry a lot of his value comes from facing bad pitchers who can’t throw strikes and won’t be there to bail him out in the Majors. |
| $0 | 56 | David Fletcher | 2B/SS | 4.21 | Started swinging a lot more in 2021 and his best trait is not swinging. |
| $0 | 57 | Michael Chavis | 1B/2B | 4.53 | Probably needs the DH in the NL to have a role and even then – can he hit MLB pitching consistently? |
| $0 | 58 | Vidal Bruján | 2B/OF | 4.32 | Scouts have seen the potential for power to emerge, but if it doesn’t he won’t play up in FanGraphs points leagues. |
| $0 | 59 | Nick Gordon | 2B/SS/OF | 4.24 | The .317 xwOBA gives you something to think about, if he can bring down the strikeouts, but he’s probably just a utility guy without much fantasy value. |
| $0 | 60 | César Hernández | 2B | 4.67 | Only two career seasons over 5.0 P/G: One was five years ago, the other was the shortened 2020. |
| $0 | 61 | Willi Castro | 2B/SS/OF | 4.56 | 115.4 max EV from a MI is something to watch, but there is way too little of that and way too much soft contact. |
| $0 | 62 | Jed Lowrie | 2B | 4.74 | Needs a job and playing time and health and a bounceback in his age 38 season to reach this projection. |
| $0 | 63 | Richie Palacios | 2B/OF | 4.38 | The power isn’t exciting but this is a profile Cleveland has had success with, so worth keeping an eye on him. |
| $0 | 64 | Nick Yorke | 2B | #N/A | Intriguing but too far away for me to have stronger thoughts than that. |
| $0 | 65 | Garrett Hampson | 2B/OF | 4.24 | Forever a sleeper, but never waking up. |
| $0 | 66 | Edmundo Sosa | 2B/SS | 4.42 | Did you know he had a 93rd percentile max exit velocity? I’ll put that on my watchlist. |
| $0 | 67 | Aledmys Díaz | 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF | 4.62 | Less exciting than some of those ahead of him, but if he is playing regularly, he’s not going to kill you as an injury replacement. |
| $0 | 68 | Justin Foscue | 2B | #N/A | Moderately interesting but seems like the Rangers are kinda set up the middle for a while. |
| $0 | 69 | Eddys Leonard | 2B/SS/3B | #N/A | See above, except not the Rangers. |
| $0 | 70 | Brendan Donovan | 1B/2B/3B | 3.23 | Not as heralded as Gorman, but look at his numbers and you have to wonder when he gets a shot. |
| $0 | 71 | Michael Stefanic | 2B/3B | 4.91 | Good hit tool but sounds like the pop just isn’t there to be a useful regular. |
| $0 | 72 | Jose Rojas | 2B/3B/OF | 4.48 | Likely to be out of the picture in Anaheim this year. |
| $0 | 73 | Rodolfo Castro | 2B/3B | 4.13 | He moved quickly through Triple-A, but his performances in Double-A and MLB don’t give much reason for confidence. |
| $0 | 74 | Andy Ibáñez | 1B/2B/3B | 4.73 | Strong results in his last two Triple-A seasons, but not worth getting excited over right now. |
| $0 | 79 | Ramón Urías | 2B/SS/3B | 4.49 | A right-handed bat with no power suddenly hitting to the deepest LF in the majors. |
| $0 | 80 | Alcides Escobar | 2B/SS | 3.83 | At his peak, this was not his format, and he is no longer at his peak. |
A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.
Ty France takes a big jump…tell us more.
I don’t see it.
He had one high-power season in the minors (2019), that was likely the result of the bouncy ball. His power the rest of the time has been pretty meh, including in the majors.
He’s fine as a third basemen, but they are moving him to first this year, where his offense isn’t likely to be anything special going forward.
He also had 22 HR in 2018 and the power grades from scouts were strong enough to suggested >20 HR per season. The nice thing is, that power upside is just bonus – he can match this ranking just by repeating 2021.
As for 1B, he was 1B 21 in 2021. Among those ahead of him are Schwindel’s SSS, Grandal at C, Schwarber in the OF, Riley at 3B, 14 PA from Tyler Nevin, and Kris Bryant who should keep OF and/or 3B. If guys like Walsh get OF again, and France ends up as 1B only, he’s got a real shot to be top 15, which makes him a decent option to start as a 1B or Util. A lot can happen between now and 2023, so no stakes in the ground here, but he’s not on a path to irrelevance or anything.
I don’t think this is a huge jump. He was 5.56 which was 2B 11; I have him 10th. The guy he jumped in my rankings is Muncy, who would still be ahead of him if healthy. So this isn’t really a jump at all. It’s just where he is. If France has a power breakout, he’ll move up from 10th.