Tuesday is full of lowly owned options with a few worth streaming.

Joshua James (22%) at Blue Jays

I pushed my normal 20% ownership rate up 2% points to included James. He’s by far the day’s best option. His only issue is the above league average walk rate.

Chad Bettis (20%) vs Phillies

Owners can’t take a chance on this home start unless they completely desperate for a Win and only a Win.

Brett Anderson (19%) at Mariners

I’m not against this start for an owner looking for a Win while keeping his ratios (1.23 WHIP, 3.96 ERA) in check. The owner isn’t getting many strikeouts (4.7 K/9).
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Trying to estimate how much who FAAB bidding will go has been a humbling experience. While I’ll likely to break down the entire process during the offseason, it’s just one more bidding cycle. The only requirement this week is “spend it if you got it”. The dollars aren’t rolling over to next season.

My model was off for the past week as owners began taking my advice a week early. The number of bids jumped from the previous week (562 to 568) with the average bid just dropping from $6.7 to $6.5. My model projected a spending drop which effectively did not happen.

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It’s been a fun season covering discount starting pitcher options here at Rotographs, and with under two weeks remaining, I’m shifting this piece to focus on options through the rest of the week to consider to stream to pull ahead through the weekend.

I’ll be keeping them under 30% owned per usual, with all numbers pulled from Fantasy Pros’ consolidated ownage metrics.

Steven Matz vs. Philadelphia Phillies + Washington Nationals – Matz has two starts left this week, playing in just an hour against Phils and on Sunday against the Nationals and his low ownage rate shocks me. He’s sporting a 2.67 ERA with a 3.03 SIERA to back it across his last five starts, averaging seven strikeouts and over six frames per start. He’s increased his slider usage from 8% on the season to 15% in that time frame, returning an impressive 2.8 pVal, which has also amplified the effect of his heater. Batters are more aware of Matz’s strong slide piece that they can’t sit on heaters, creating tougher at-bats, and more efficient starts for Matz. Meanwhile, the Phillies and Nationals are far from strong offenses – lineups Matz has produced against recently – and should make for productive outings for Matz owners.

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The FAAB bids this past week at the NFBC’s Main Event mirrored the regular season, almost dead. Even so, I’m back for another week of estimates for the upcoming bidding cycle.

First off, here is a snapshot of last week’s results.

My forward looking FAAB projections got murdered this week

Name: Proj, Actual
Mejia: $19, $17
Voit: $61, $12
O'Hearn: $10, $7
Alcantara: $13, $7
Wainwright: $25, $6
Shoemaker: $15, $5
Valdez: $24, $4https://t.co/9oSIMQLCQo

I need to dive in and do some late season adjustments

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 11, 2018

On average, the bids were significantly higher than expected except with some rookie call-ups. I went back to the drawing board and completely reworked my formulas with some historically acceptable results.

My current quandary is making the estimates more usable. Before next season, I can reexamine the information with fresh eyes and possibly explore other options.
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Compared to yesterday’s streaming options, today’s group could win the Cy Young. While there are still some clunkers a few usable options exist. For the pitcher examined, I’m using pitcher owned in 20% or fewer FanTrax leagues.

Erasmo Ramirez at Angels (18%)

I’d have no issues starting him for this game. His year-long results look uninviting (5.31 ERA and 2.3 HR/9) but he’s pitched decently since coming off the DL (shoulder). Since returning, he’s posted a 7.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, and 3.68 ERA.

He’ll face a beatable Angels team starting Andrew Heaney. He’s a fine streaming option.

Sean Reid-Foley at Yankees (15%)

I didn’t like what I saw from Reid-Foley when he debuted and nothing has changed (6.86 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.62 WHIP). Now, if an owner is only needing strikeouts and doesn’t mind how much the rest of his stats get abused, Reid-Foley is the day’s best strikeout option.

Yonny Chirinos vs A’s (14%)

I’m a little surprised Chirinos’s ownership is only 14%. He’s a perfectly fine streaming option (7.4 K/9, 3.81 ERA) and faces a shaky Trevor Cahill.
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This week’s edition represents a reiteration of two previous recommendations. It baffles me both are owned in less than 10% of CBS leagues.

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I hope no owner is needing a free agent starter to use as it’s a rough group of lowly owned pitchers. When Ian Kennedy is the top choice, the pickings are slim.

Here are the pitchers owned in 20% or fewer FanTrax leagues.

Ian Kennedy (22% – close enough for RotoGraphs) at Twins

The 33-year-old righty should not be in play, but he’s Sunday’s best option with the chance for a Win (vs Twins) and some strikeouts (8.3 K/9). His flyball nature has helped him post a HR/9 over 1.5 over the past 4 seasons so he’ll have a high ERA. Experienced owners should know what they’re getting with Kennedy.

Erasmo Ramirez (19%) vs Yankees

I’ve never been able to trust Ramirez and I’m not sure I can against the Yankees. There are a couple signs for optimism. Most of his ERA damage happened in his first start when he posted a 10.24 ERA. After those two starts, he went on the DL (shoulder).

Since returning, his ERA has been 3.70 with ERA estimators near 4.00. He’s in the mold of a slightly below average starter with a 7.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9. He’s facing CC, so he has a chance for a Win. There are worse choices.
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It’s going to be a tough week for owners looking for help. Few quality players became available this week and the available two-start starter is not any better. I will still try to give some FAAB estimates.

As usual, I use the NFBC Main Event (34 15-team mixed leagues, $1000 in FAAB) for the FAAB bids and CBSsportsline.com to estimate the weekly demand. First off, here are last week’s results.

Results from last week's FAAB projections for @thenfbc. I'm back to being a little high.

Name: Proj, Actual
Tyler White: $61, $43
Luke Voit: $19, $8
Luis Urias: $24, $11
Ramon Laureano: $16, $20
Billy McKinney: $14, $7
Jace Fry: $13, $9https://t.co/7SEVPNqmjk

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 7, 2018

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