The Bold Predictions Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Scott Pianowski

Strategy Section

• 2021 Draft Trends
  • Starters pushed up
  • Reliever pricing
  • Prospects
• Adalberto Mondesi
  • Injury Update
  • The case for drafting him
  • The case against drafting him
    • Discussion of Risk and Risk-Adjusted Pricing
  • Comparison to Byron Buxton
  • Comparison to Carlos Gomez

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I’m going to continue my analysis of NFBC Main Event drops, but this first week will be a one-off. The NFBC ran its first FAAB bids last night but not all the leagues have drafted (I have my final one tonight), so the adds and drops not have the normal diversity and depth. Some of the information is still useful. With the limited number of teams and with the drafts so close to the season’s will dive into some of the players on the move (minimum three moves).

Note: I use the NFBC Main Event movement because it’s a decent number of identical leagues. Additionally, the owners stay engaged longer since each spent over $1700 per team.
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I’m as competitive as hell. I hate not winning. Simply…

So is almost everyone else. While many people search for an edge, they aren’t looking into harmful habits that erode that edge. All the gains an owner could get from researching the best players can be lost if he constantly overspends rostering them. Many times what a person considers to be an edge can actually be a hindrance. Here are several ideas that help me back and now that I’ve changed my stance
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The final week has some interesting two-start pitchers and some well-rounded hitters taking off for teams needing a boost. My one caution for owners is that even though one category (e.g. Saves) could be the easiest to gain (or lose) point in, it is possible to drop in other categories if they are ignored.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

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With just a week left in the season, the drop totals are more in line with a “normal” week. I did see two trends. First, starters are not being kept if they are useless over the last two weeks. Second, many failed closer dart throws were dropped. Finally, this will be this series’s last article since next week’s won’t matter. I’ll keep the article going next season.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.
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There are just two weeks left in the season. I’m trying to focus on how to extract the most value from those 14 days. For this reason, the pitcher rankings may seem off, but if I don’t see myself starting them, I didn’t rank them very high.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.

Hitters

1. Victor Reyes (45%): He’s about as well-rounded of an add a manager can get right now.
2. Andrés Giménez (20%): The defensive wizard and his seven steals need to be picked up in all roto leagues. So far, his profile isn’t all speed with two homers and a .287 AVG.
3. Adam Duvall (49%): While he’s not hitting at the top of the Braves lineup, he’s a must-add in all formats with his 13 homers.
4. Raimel Tapia (21%): The Rockies leadoff hitter’s value is through the roof with all home games next week.
5. Jeimer Candelario (43%): Finally, the dual position slugger (7 HR, .327 AVG) is getting some love.
6. DJ Stewart (14%): He’s hitting great (.278 AVG, 6 HR) at the top of a decent scoring lineup.
7. Rio Ruiz (16%): He started 13 straight games while hitting .302/.375/.488 over that time frame. The 26-year-old has eight homers while just batting .227.
8. Bobby Dalbec (26%): It’s home run (60% HR/FB) or nothing (47% K%) for Dalbec.
9. Brandon Belt (45%): He’s providing some power (7 HR) and average (.312) while hitting in the middle of the Giants lineup.
10. Ke’Bryan Hayes (21%): He’s in the majors because of his glove and has shown below-average power and speed in the minors.
11. Ty France (21%): The 25-year-old is hard to rank. He’s playing and hitting in the middle of a lineup. I’m just not sure he’s talented.
12. Willi Castro (7%): A BABIP (.472) fueled .354 AVG with some power (3 HR) has Castro on people’s radar. Since he’s batting 5th, he’s an interesting add.
13. Alex Dickerson (38%): The eight homers are enticing but, but sort of an average profile beyond them.
14. Daulton Varsho (14%): For the manager grinding for steals, Varsho is your catcher. While he hasn’t hit in the majors (strikeout rate way up), he did steal 21 bases in AA last season.
15. Jesús Aguilar (42%): He’s started nine of the last 10 games while hitting OK (5 HR, .271 AVG).
16. Garrett Cooper (18%): He’s been fine since returning from the IL. Besides some position flexibility (1B/OF), it’s a boring profile.
17. Jurickson Profar (35%): He provides a little of everything (power, speed, positional flexibility), except batting average (.239 AVG).
18. Chris Taylor (29%): A balanced replacement-level hitter (3 HR, 3 SB) who has started nine of the last ten games.
19. Jackie Bradley Jr. (18%): The anti-gamble. He provides steady boring production. He’s a replacement level bat.
20. Maikel Franco (44%): There seems to several of these third basemen who hitting well but not great. They seem to be decent streaming options.
21. Edward Olivares (6%): His 3% BB% fits right into the Royals plate discipline profile, no discipline. He’ playing every day with a 28% HR/FB%.
22. Miguel Andújar DH (33%): The Yankees are getting desperate to be starting Andujar again. While the playing time has been limited since his rookie season, he has sleazed his way into the Yankees lineup. He needed 87 injuries to occur before getting an opportunity.
23. Corey Dickerson (33%): Really? I wonder if managers added the wrong Dickerson.
24. Jared Walsh (5%); Started five of the last six games with five home runs so far. It’s nice to finally see the 26-year-old get a run at first base.
25. Randy Arozarena (19%): Since joining the Rays, he’s started five of 10 games, mainly against lefties. In those few at-bats, he’s hitting .364/.462/.909 with four homers. A nice add in daily lineup leagues, unrosterable in weekly leagues.
26. Manuel Margot (18%): The 11 stolen bases and .274 AVG seem enticing, but with Kevin Kiermaier back, Margot is only starting against southpaws.
27. Rowdy Tellez (23%): Out for the 2020 season.

Starters

1. Deivi García (56%): If a manager is adding any pitcher for the upcoming week, it’s Garcia with two starts versus Toronto and at Boston. The rookie has pretty much shoved since being promoted.
2. Dane Dunning (53%): While his two matchups (vs MIN, at CIN) aren’t ideal this next week, there aren’t many other starters on the wire with his talent (9.5 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, 2.70 ERA).
3. Josh Fleming (28%): Besides being home run prone (2.3 HR/9), all his stats are fine for a fourth or fifth starter.
4. Dean Kremer (16%) and Keegan Akin (10%): The prospects debuted with mixed results. I’m interested in them where he can be stashed for potential two-starts in the last week. I’d roster them now to see how their starts go this week and then possibly start him against the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the last week.
5. Luis Garcia (4%): The 0.96 is admirable but it’s not going to stay that way if he keeps walking a batter every other inning (4.8 BB/9). He looks to have three starts to end the season (Rangers x2, Mariners).
6. Cole Hamels (27%): Hamels has two-starts in the last week (Marlins Red Sox). He might be worth stash this week, observe how he pitches against Baltimore, and make the decision to cut or keep next week.
7. Johan Oviedo (11%): If a team needs a Hail Mary to get back in it next week, he’s it. His two starts are against the Brewers and Pirates.
8. JT Brubaker (5%): If he’s still in the rotation, 26-year-old righty will likely get two starts in the last week. I’m not sure how much I trust a Pirates starter to deliver. He does throw a 94-mph fastball and two breaking balls (slider and curve) with a swinging-strike rate of over 13%.
9. Tejay Antone (8%): I like him going into next season, but a single start against the White Sox this week and just one start the next week doesn’t work for me.
10. Trevor Rogers (22%): While he imploded this past Friday (8 ER in 3 IP), his 13 K/9 and 3.75 SIERA are completely workable. He lines up for two starts in two weeks at the Braves and the Yankees.
11. Yusei Kikuchi (30%): His 53% LOB% is the league’s lowest (min 30 IP). It’s the reason all his ERA estimators are under 4.00 but he has a 5.35 ERA. He’s been horrible from the stretch (10% K%) compared to the windup (24% K%).
12. Kris Bubic (12%): The rookie has been OK but he’s got one start against Milwaukee this week and one against St Louis the next. I’ll bet on other options.
13. Justin Dunn (25%): He’s gone full flyball mode (33% GB%) over his last three starts. He limited the hits (.091 BABIP, 1.0 HR/9) to post a 1.00 ERA. I just don’t think he’s work adding (vs Padres) this next week.
14. Tarik Skubal (29%): He’s looked OK at times, but the results across the board have stunk (1.50 WHIP, 2.1 HR/9, 7.27 ERA).
15. David Peterson (42%): Currently, he lines up for just one start for the upcoming weeks with next week’s start versus Atlanta.
16. José Ureña (12%): Not just no. Hell no.

Relievers (Saves based value)

1. Jeremy Jeffress (55%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
2. Greg Holland (31%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
3. Daniel Bard (39%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
4. Tony Watson (25%): An OK reliever with a partial closer’s role.
5. Richard Rodriguez (15%): An OK reliever with the closer’s role.
6. Devin Williams (36%): A cyborg who is next in line for the closer’s role.
7. Rafael Dolis (13%): An OK reliever with a temporary hold on partial closer’s role.
8. Yohan Ramirez (7%): There has been speculation he will get with the closer’s role.

This week’s player list is full of bad hitters who are losing playing time or relievers owners threw darts at hoping for Saves. Most of the drops are in some way related to the trade deadline.

For this analysis, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer since each spent over $1000 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between obvious and bizarre and will focus on players dropped in six to nine leagues.
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It feels like a normal mid-season week. Hitters are starting to fall into set production levels. Starters with talent changes are rostered. And teams are trying to determine their most reliable relievers. It doesn’t seem like anyone is available to blow the budget on. Instead, just pick and choose those players to help win this week.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
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One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Previous Volumes

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Yan Gomes – 4% | Gary Sánchez – 89% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

Gomes is still in a timeshare with Kurt Suzuki, but he’s doing enough in his time to merit consideration. Over his last 50 plate appearances he’s hitting .362/.400/.617 with 2 HR, 7 RBI, and 8 R. He slots as a top 10 catcher over the last month (9th) and 15-day (6th) periods.

Sanchez was in this spot a week ago and has done nothing to change the outlook, hitting .100/.217/.250 in his last seven games. How is he still toting this high of a roster rate?

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I had to stop adding players and start setting my own bids, so this list will likely be incomplete as more trades happen. I think Ian Anderson is the only wallet buster of the week but I’m sure other players will go for decent prices. One item to keep in mind this week is every manager’s FAAB, especially those leading a league. In one of my leagues, the four managers ahead in the standings have $26 … total. Three at $1 and the other at $23. Some game theory can be used at this point … or at least until that absentee manager with a 100% of his FAAB left grabs everyone.

As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
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