Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 6)

Besides a couple of interesting starters (Peterson and Flexon), it seemed like a lot of outfielder musical chairs. Overall, it was a boring weekend for adds and drops. About time.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.

Hitters

Stephen Piscotty (9): Managers took advantage of the A’s facing six lefties. He was OK by hitting .250/.368/.438 with 1 HR and 5 R+RBI. The A’s now face five righties this week so Seth Brown is now the preferred option (added in 29 leagues).

José Iglesias (9): Replacement-level middle infielder. While he provides little positive value, he could help a team improve their batting average (.271 AVG in 2021, .278 for his career).

Yadiel Hernandez (9): He was a fine (.283/.346/.370, 1 HR, 2 SB) fill-in with Juan Soto on the IL and the DH in New York. Hernandez is likely out of a job and his value is done for with Soto, Victor Robles, and Kyle Schwarber in the outfield.

Phillip Evans (9): While Evans is still playing and hitting near the top of the Pirates lineup, he’s cooled. He’s hit just .114/.250/.114 over his last 13 games. It didn’t take long for the league to catch up with him.

Billy McKinney (7): He has started seven of the last 10 while hitting .214/.275/.381 with three homers and a stolen base. Another replacement-level outfielder.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (7): His plate discipline has eroded (11% BB% to 2% BB%, 22K% to 31% K%) and his batting average has tanked (.182). Reasonable cut.

Michael A. Taylor (7): He started off hot with a .737 OPS, 2 HR, and 2 SB in the first 16 games. Over the last 15, he has hit a .543 OPS with 0 HR, and 1 SB. While I’d be looking to upgrade, I’d prefer him to the other outfielders profiled today.

Kole Calhoun (7): He’s out five to seven weeks, so a reasonable drop. The key is adding him right before he comes back.

Andrelton Simmons (7): He’s never been a source of power or speed and his strikeout rate (18%, 9% for his career) has killed his batting average (.233). He’s nothing but an injury placeholder in mixed leagues.

Jason Heyward (7): He’s hurt (hand) and lost at the plate (.556 OPS). While his three home runs and steals will garner some mixed-league attention, the .173 AVG is a death sentence.

Starters

Jake Arrieta (10): I figured Arrieta would be a candidate to stream in 30% of his starts. Since he’s now on the IL (thumb), he’s a reasonable drop. If adding him for a future start, monitor his velocity to see if it’s back up.

Joey Lucchesi (10): For those managers who gambled on the two-starts (raises hand), they were rewarded with 6 IP, 4 K, 1 W, a 1.83 WHIP, and 9.00 ERA. He’s had a bit of bad luck (47% LOB%, .341 BABIP) and could still be a streaming option (3.83 SIERA). Like Arrieta, check in on his velocity that has dropped 1 mph in the last two starts.

Austin Gomber (9): I was a little surprised he was being held for his start at St. Louis (5 IP, 5 ERA, 7 K, 0 ER). He’s just not been a productive pitcher this year. I’m guessing his talent is between the 1.86 ERA of 2020 and the 6.35 ERA of 2021 with his SIERA values almost identical (4.82 vs 4.89).

Mike Foltynewicz (9): He’s been OK so far this season (4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.1 K/9) but his next three opponents are the Astros (x2) and Yankees. A reasonable drop to be evaluated in a couple of weeks.

David Peterson (8): I’d look at picking up Peterson if he was dropped. Right now he has a 5.54 ERA and it’s going to scare off some managers. Going with just the basic 18.8% K%-BB%, he ranks 50th among starters (min 20 IP). Pitchers with similar K%-BB% have an average ERA two points lower. I’d bet on some positive regression at this point.

Chris Flexen 플렉센 (7): A team’s rotation and bench would have needed to be a mess to drop him. While his strikeouts aren’t great (6.2 K/9), he’s not walking anyone (1.9 BB/9). Even with a .346 BABIP, he’s been able to maintain a sub-4.00 ERA. The upcoming matchups are Cleveland and Detroit (he’ll be added for this start) it’s a favorable schedule.

Joe Ross (7): Besides getting lit up by the Cardinals for 10 runs, he has been decent (27.1 IP, 5 ER, 23 K, 11 BB). I can’t put a finger on the difference, but he might be someone who we need to dismiss the bad start and re-examine with fresh eyes.

Tanner Houck (7): Remains in the minors so a reasonable drop with no promotion timetable.

Carlos Martinez (7): He’s been lucky (.242 BABIP, 0.4 HR/9) to only have a 4.35 ERA and 1.16 WHIP) The biggest drag to his fantasy value is that his strikeout and walk are in the same range (4.8 K/9 = 3.1 BB/9). His 4.6% K%-BB% is the 2nd worst among qualified starters.

Relievers

Chris Rodriguez (9): I’m a little surprised the middle reliever was rostered. The results have been good (2.30 ERA, 9.8 K/9, 1.09 WHIP) but he’s thrown just 15 innings and his ratios don’t move the dial with no possibility for Saves.

Mychal Givens (9): Givens has been fine (2.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 10.0 K/9). The reason he was added was that Daniel Bard struggled (7.36 ERA, 2.18 WHIP) and has not had a 1-2-3 inning all season (3 for Givens). I held Givens one more week because the Rockies have seven home games and if Bard is going to implode and lose his job, there is a good chance it’s this week. It is so hard to find closers so Givens is a nice stash.

Bryan Garcia (9): While he’s recorded two Saves, he been a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck with a 6.57 BB/9 and identical ERA. The high walk rate can be workable for a high strikeout reliever, but his 7.3 K/9 is just not enough to offset them. José Cisnero is now the backup closer in Detroit behind Gregory Soto.

Anthony Bass (9): Yimi García was struggling coming into last weekend, so Bass and Dylan Floro were added by teams hunting for Saves. Garcia righted the ship and Bass if off to the waiver wire.