Who is Being Dropped & Why (Week 7)

Like most weeks, 90%+ of the drops are reasonable, but a few players might be worth adding next week. Starting pitching remains the area to dive in a little deeper to determine if blowups are BABIP driven or if there is a deeper issue.

For this weekly feature, I use the NFBC Main Event because of the number of identical leagues. Additionally, the managers stay engaged longer on the whole since each spent $1700 per team. I tried to find that sweet spot between the obvious and bizarre drops and will focus on players dropped in seven to ten leagues. Previously the number was six to nine, but I adjusted with the Main Event adding four leagues since I did the report.

Hitters

Luis Torrens (9): I moved on from him a few weeks ago in a 15-teamer and he hasn’t improved since then (.567 OPS in May).

Leury Garcia (9): Has started 11 of 12 with Robert on the IL. During that time, he hit .243/.310/.297 with no homers or stolen bases.

Lewis Brinson (9): After starting nine of 11 games in center field, he and his .599 OPS has moved to the bench. Magneuris Sierra (.535 OPS) has replaced him in center field. What’s Juan Pierre up to these day?

Franchy Cordero (8): He’s been unproductive (.448 OPS) and not starting every day (six of the last 10).

Jon Berti (8): He got a chance to start with Brian Anderson out, but the playing time has dried up. He just hasn’t got going this season with a .583 OPS and one for three on the bases.

Elvis Andrus (8): He’s been bad (.469 OPS), but is showing signs of life (.625 OPS in May, .833 OPS in the last week). As I noted in a recent article, he may be working through some bad habits he picked up last season while hurt. Monitor.

Jason Heyward (8): Even by normal Jason Heyward standards, this season is a disappointment (.571 OPS). While he has provided three home runs and steals, career worsts in BABIP (.214) and strikeouts (24%) have tanked his batting average (.176). I’m not sure the BABIP will completely turn around with a groundball and pull-rate over 50%.

Max Stassi (8): An injured replacement-level catcher.

Ka’ai Tom (8): He’s started 13 of 16 games since joining the Pirates while hitting .216/.385/.324 with 1 HR and 1 SB. If he could improve on his .215 BABIP, he could be a nice fourth or fifth outfielder.

Tom Murphy (8): The only reason Torrens is getting so many starts is that Murphy has been useless (.472 OPS). Murphy is only going for home runs (three this season) with a 59% Pull% and 36% GB%.

Victor Caratini (8): Has only started four of the last 10 games with Austin Nola (.811 OPS) off the IL (.811 OPS).

Kevin Kiermaier (7): Hurt (wrist) and unproductive (.589 OPS).

Tim Locastro (7): On the short side of a platoon with Nick Heath. And not hitting (.586 OPS).

Yadiel Hernandez (7): He hasn’t started once since Soto returned and not at an AL park (no DH).

Luis Robert (7): Out at least three to four months.

Starters

Jeff Hoffman (10): After a respectable April (3.33 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), the walks have become too much (4.7 BB/9) compared to the number of strikeouts (8.3 K/9). His ERA has ballooned to 4.67 with matching ERA estimators. Unrosterable until the command comes back.

Mitch Keller (10): Just like Hoffman, the walks (5.5 BB/9) have blown up his WHIP (1.81) and ERA (7.16). Ignore.

Trevor Williams (10): He was rostered to face Detroit and they lit him up for three runs in just two innings. Again, another pitcher with a 4.9 BB/9 leading to a 6.27 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. A middle reliever could perform better than him.

Carlos Martínez (10): He was not striking anyone out (4.8 K/9) and now on the IL (ankle).

Mike Foltynewicz (10): He’s been sort of OK (1.36 WHIP, 4.60 ERA), but his low groundball rate (37%) has to lead to a ton of homers (2.2 HR/9). For now, pick and choose the matchups.

José Ureña (9): After four straight quality starts, he couldn’t get out of the third inning of his last start. While he still getting groundballs (56%), the strikeouts have disappeared (four in the last two starts) and the decline might be from a velocity drop.


Jakob Junis (9): After a great start to the season in the rotation, he’s been a mess as the Royals have jerked him around. After going to the bullpen and back to the rotation, he has a 13.50 ERA, 6.0 K/9, and 2.17 WHIP. Even with those games thrown in, his xFIP and SIERA are around 3.50. Track his progress to see he gets back to his early-season form.

Erick Fedde (8): His two-start week was acceptable with a 2.25 ERA, 1 Win, 8 K’s, and a 1.08 WHIP in 12 IP. While I don’t like his 4.1 BB/9, he’s a streamable option when the match-up merits it.

Merrill Kelly 켈리 (8): He was added for his start against Miami (6 IP, 3 ER, 4 K) and correctly dropped with a start against the Dodgers this week.

Daniel Lynch (8): A 15.75 ERA and 2.88 WHIP in three starts and then a demotion.

Hyeon-Jong Yang (8): He’s been OK this season and will start against the Yankees on Wednesday. This start will decide a lot of this demand going forward.

Eric Lauer (7): A replacement-level pitcher in the minors.

Relievers

Pete Fairbanks (9): The hype surrounding his return died off and so did the desire to roster him.

Joakim Soria (8): It’s interesting to see him still being rostered. Seems like a move that should have been done a few weeks ago.

Giovanny Gallegos (8): Reyes has a lock on the closer’s job (0.43 ERA, 11 Sv, 0 L, 0 BS), so Gallegos is expendable.

Caleb Thielbar (7): He was doing great and then got lit up for 5 ER, 4 K, 4 BB in 3.1 IP last week. His ERA jumped from 3.00 to 5.28.

Rafael Montero (7): While not Seattle’s closer, he was accumulating a few Saves (5) and Wins (3). He has struggled over his last four appearances with 5 ER in 3 IP. Some team desperate enough for Saves will roster him.

Players Dropped in the NFBC Main Event
Player Leagues
Rowdy Tellez 22
Asdrubal Cabrera 22
Luke Weaver 18
Mike Soroka 18
Drew Pomeranz 17
Aaron Hicks 17
Mychal Givens 17
Tyrone Taylor 17
Joe Ross 16
Nate Pearson 16
Phillip Evans 16
Mitch Moreland 15
Jackie Bradley Jr. 15
Jordan Luplow 14
Sean Doolittle 14
Kyle Higashioka 14
Martin Perez 14
Jose Alvarado 13
Austin Slater 13
Wilmer Flores 13
Evan White 12
Devin Williams 11
Andrew Kittredge 11
Jeffrey Springs 11
Erik Gonzalez 11
Jeff Hoffman 10
Mitch Keller 10
Trevor Williams 10
Carlos Martinez 10
Mike Foltynewicz 10
Luis Torrens 9
Leury Garcia 9
Lewis Brinson 9
Jose Urena 9
Pete Fairbanks 9
Jakob Junis 9
Franchy Cordero 8
Joakim Soria 8
Jon Berti 8
Elvis Andrus 8
Jason Heyward 8
Max Stassi 8
Erick Fedde 8
Merrill Kelly 8
Daniel Lynch 8
Ka’ai Tom 8
Hyeon-jong Yang 8
Giovanny Gallegos 8
Tom Murphy 8
Victor Caratini 8
Eric Lauer 7
Caleb Thielbar 7
Rafael Montero 7
Kevin Kiermaier 7
Tim Locastro 7
Yadiel Hernandez 7
Luis Robert 7
Ryne Stanek 6
Taylor Trammell 6
Marco Gonzales 6
Alejandro Kirk 6
Tyler Stephenson 6
Mauricio Dubon 6
Sam Haggerty 6
Isan Diaz 6
J.P. Crawford 6
Luis Urias 6
Brett Phillips 6
Stephen Piscotty 6
Kurt Suzuki 6
Seth Brown 6
Garrett Cooper 6
Sam Coonrod 6
Trevor May 5
Hunter Dozier 5
Cristian Pache 5
Michael Wacha 5
Jurickson Profar 5
Taylor Widener 5
Jose Trevino 5
Nomar Mazara 5
Deivi Garcia 5
Christian Walker 5
Rougned Odor 5
Dane Dunning 5
David Bote 5





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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kindub
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kindub

Soria is getting on-the-job second spring training after a month off. Fingers crossed: https://twitter.com/joframaso/status/1394124968842207234

HappyFunBall
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HappyFunBall

He’s also the presumptive backup closer. For all we know he’s one Crichton blowup away from the job.