Roto Riteup: May 25, 2013
As a contractual obligation, the present author would like the reader to be aware of that fact Andrew Cashner is starting today. Plan your fantasy roster and baseball game viewing pleasures accordingly.
On today’s agenda:
1. A solid month from Melky Cabrera
2. John Lackey continues to impress
3. Anibal Sanchez’s gem
4. John Danks‘ return from the DL
A solid month from Melky Cabrera
Over the past month Melky Cabrera has hit .294 and has chipped in two home runs. Though power was never a huge part of Melky’s value, one can reasonably expect double digit home runs from him. In addition to the long balls, it is great to see Melky’s average finally coming around. He may very well hit 10 home runs and steal 10 bases while hitting over .290 for the rest of the season, numbers that should play in just about any league or format. With Jose Reyes still out with an injury and his own hot hitting, Melky has worked his way to the top of the lineup. Since being moved to the lead off spot, Cabrera has scored ten runs in 11 games. He won’t set the world on fire, but Cabrera still makes for a very sound fantasy outfielder.
John Lackey continues to impress
John Lackey was masterful yesterday as he shut down the Cleveland Indians for seven innings. He allowed just one (unearned) run to score and had a mere five base runners allowed on the evening. Lackey struck out eight and now has a 40:11 strikeout to walk ratio on the season. His 2.72 ERA/2.92 FIP/3.02 xFIP is excellent and his velocity has been consistent all season. The time is now to buy low on Lackey, as time may be running out to get him on the cheap. Don’t expect sub-3 ERA the rest of the season, but he is better than a mere stream candidate and deserves to be rostered. He is currently available in 87% of ESPN leagues, 85% of Yahoo! leagues, and 66% of CBS formats.
Anibal Sanchez’s gem
If Lackey’s outing yesterday was masterful, then Anibal Sanchez was utterly sublime. Sanchez hurled a complete game shut out — a one hitter with just four base runners allowed — and fanned 12 along the way. Sanchez now boasts an 80:17 strikeout to walk ratio and has a K/9 above 11. As noted by J.P. Breen, Sanchez has enjoyed a huge uptick in his strikeout rate, however it has come against teams that have whiffed among the most in baseball. If someone in your league is willing to overpay for Sanchez, don’t get in their way.
John Danks‘ return from the DL
In his season debut — and his first major league start since May 19 of last season — John Danks turned in a six inning, three run performance. He struck out five and didn’t allow a walk, though he did allow a two-run homer. Danks probably won’t be a star for you, but he does make for a worthwhile stream or even spot start option. His four-seam fastball averaged almost 90 mph and touched 91 on occasion. Shoulder injuries are always particularly worrisome, however at least in the early going, Danks seems ready to and able enough to stream.
You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.
Give me Will Venable over Melky any day. Owned in 66% less Yahoo leagues, will put up better numbers despite playing in Petco.
In leagues that value Batting Average and OPS Venable is too much of a liability. A part time outfielder like Chris Young will probably put up similar power and speed numbers as Venable in 200 fewer plate appearances. I’d roster Melky, but Venable is no more than a streaming candidate. Chances are there’s other players with a similar skill set in the free agent pool like Young, Michael Saunders, or Justin Ruggiano.
Venable, career-wise, has hit .252. Isn’t that pretty close to average? Still low, yes, but not unrosterablely so. Either way, Venable seems like he would win in more categories than Melky: Using ZIPs/Steamer and what is said in this, Melky is projected for about 10 HR and 10 SB. Venable is ZIPs/Steamer both project Venable for 10 HR and 16 SB. In addition, while the Padres play in Petco as I mentioned and have a lesser lineup, the Blue Jays have been struggling and while they hit a lot of HR, they have a below average AVG (In line with Venable) from Bautista, E3 and J.P., while Headley hits for a decent AVG clip, even if his power is down (But given he has a .171 ISO compared to .146 career, they should be going up a little…) and Gyorko has good potential and decent AVG (Quentin is a minus, though). Also, Venable should get more RBI, because he is bating #2 with Everth in front of him vs. Melky’s #2 and Rajai Davis in front of him (Everth steals more bases, putting him in singles scoring range, with a higher OBP).
I didn’t bring up Chris Young because I thought he was more owned than he was: surprised to see he is only owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues. Either way, Chris Young hits for LESS of an AVG than Venable career-wise (Probably because his numbers vs. righties have been so much worse than vs. lefties) and Chris Young is suggested to hit 11 HR and steal 11 SB RoS by ZIPs…though they only have him playing 87 games, so when you adjust for playing time, he probably comes out ahead.
Saunders hits for a lower AVG than Venable, walks about as much as Venable and projects out to be around the same in HR/SB when controlled for playing time, but he doesn’t play in any better park than Venable and I’d say the Padres lineup is better than the Venable lineup for run scoring…and while Saunders being leadoff means more runs, Venable behind Everth means more RBI.
Ruggiano is a pretty good comparison for Venable, since his AVG should bounce back up to the .263 career range, probably a bit less (I’m thinking .250-.255?), with comparable HR and SB totals, probably slightly more HR but slightly less SB. Ruggiano is playing on the Marlins, though, in the #5 hole: Greg Dobbs isn’t very good, Giancarlo leaves no RBI chances behind if he homers (which is his primary skill) and Polanco is cooked. On the R side, Rob Brantly isn’t much special at all, Miguel Olivo should need no explanation and Hechavarria is far from anyone able to drive people in. So I feel Venable gets the edge in Runs and possibly even RBI.
Saunders and Ruggiano are also unrsoterable in OPS/OBP leagues, though Chris Young and Melky are. Overall, though, I would rather have Venable over all of them except Young, as Young should put up better stats as long as he gets the PT. And even then, Young is someone you might want to platoon instead of flatout play: He simply has never batted well vs. righties.
As you pointed out, Venable has to play in Petco and his surrounding lineup isn’t nearly as good as Melky’s.
I’d still take Melky over Venable and it isn’t particularly close.
Hey David,
With the news about Henderson, would you drop David Hernandez, Wily Peralta, or Rex Brothers for K-Rod? I play in a weekly league and I usually start three relievers, Cishek, Jansen, and Soriano, but I am thinking of switching out Cishek for Hernandez, Brothers, or K-Rod next week. What do you think? By the way this is the league that is NL-only plus the AL Central. Thanks!
I’d drop Peralta for K-rod. But keep in mind that it will be a closer by committee, not just K-rod getting the chances.
http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/marco-estrada-strong-but-jim-henderson-injured-in-win-b9918482z1-208921731.html
All right, thanks a lot. So for next week, which one would you start: K-Rod, Brothers, or Hernandez?
I’d lean towards K-Rod.
Okay, I’ll go with him unless some news comes out against Betancourt being out for a while.
Thanks, as always, for your quick responses!
Would you take Lackey over Jose Fernandez at this point?
I think Fernandez might be a slightly better pitcher right now, but Lackey will probably get more wins, as the Red Sox are little bit better than the Marlins.
Just because of the difference in wins, I’d probably take Lackey. But it is very close.
Thanks. And re: your intro, I want to love Cashner but just can’t get past that low K/9. He’s available in my league, so I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on his start today.
Haha, I adore Cashner. His SwStr% is lower than previous years, but it is still above average for a starting pitcher. I’m a big fan.
I have been offered Aoki and LaRoche for Kuroda and Mauer.
I play in standard 5×5 mixed, head-to-head league. My offense is pretty weak (not much power and average) but I have decent pitching. Besides Kuroda, I have Waino, Fister, Cueto, and Felix among others.
I like that deal, I’m not over the moon for it, but I like it. Mauer is C eligible and whomever you get to replace him will be a huge step down. Aoki is great and I like LaRoche, but both play very deep positions. In a regular mixed league, there will always be pitching available.
Pull the trigger on this deal.
just to be clear, I will be getting Aoki and LaRoche if I accept this deal. In my lineup Perez or Buck will replace Mauer. As my team stands now, Kuroda will be replaced by Cueto.
oh and thank you very much for your input. much appreciated.
I think he thinks you’re on the other side of that deal. I wouldn’t want to give up Mauer. You’ll have a tough time finding a replacement.
I just traded Scherzer ,McCarthy and Trevor Story for Anibal Sanchez,Addison Russell ,and Archie Bradley in a 16 team dynasty points league that allows 7 minor leaguers . How do you think I did ?
Right now, I’d say you broke even at best. Russell and Bradley are clearly a good prospect haul, and if they both fulfill their potential, then you got a good deal out of it. Right now, though, I’d rather have Scherzer than Sanchez, and McCarthy’s resurgence makes it that much tougher to side with your prospect haul. I hope it works out with Russell and Bradley, as they’re two of the more intriguing prospects to watch, but I’m calling this a tie right now as we can never count on prospects hitting the targets we set for them.
If you’re trying to win this year then you took an obvious step back. But, like Stealth said, if the prospects pan out (warning: HUGE if), then you’ll be okay.
As an A’s fan, I adore Addison Russell, but you bought high on Sanchez.
The idea was to build for the future ,shortstop is the weakest point on my team . I definitely weakened my pitching short-term ,but I think it was a fairly small step back .I think I also sold high on Scherzer and McCarthy is just an injury waiting to happen .My team is in first place ,and Scherzer cost me the league title last year when he got zero points in a two-start week,the last week of our playoffs .I now have a potential monster pitching staff in the minors with Bradley,Cole,Taijuan Walker,Fried,and Appel. My current outfield isn’t too bad either with Pence,McCutchen,Harper,and Trout .With Rosario at catcher,Hosmer at 1B ( I still believe )Altuve and Profar at 2B and Wright at 3B ,I think I have a long term top contender .
Oh ,and my current pitching staff is Anibal,Buchholz,Derek Holland,Lincecum,McAllister,Cashner ,and Stults ,with Bret Anderson and Duffy on the DL and Wilhelmsen at closer .With the hitting I have ,I don’t need a killer pitching staff,just a good one, to be in the running .
Also forgot Garza,who just came off the DL .
Who would you take for this year – Lackey, Gausman, Liriano or Vargas?
Liriano
Gausman, Lackey, Liriano, Vargas, in that order.
I’m at wit’s end with Brandon Morrow and Lackey is sitting on the wire. Do I make the swap?
I still love Morrow. Keep the faith.
Morrow is on the wire in most of my leagues after getting bombed by the Orioles. Can we get an article on Morrow for RoS? That would be sweet. I have a spot for him if a rebound is imminent…but he looks pretty bad right now.
I’ll pass it along.
How would you rank Milone, Straily, Lewis, Santiago?
Trying to figure out who I should pick up. I’m leaning on Straily because of the upside.
That order looks right. I adore Straily, but I worry about his control. His home park will help suppress the homers, as he is a big time fly ball pitcher.
I’ve been told by different people on this website to pick up Kyle Kendrick and keep him but after a month of ownership I think I’ve had it with him and he’s getting dropped from my team this Sunday. Considering I’m also dropping Dempster tomorrow, which two of these pitchers would you pick up? I’m looking at Vargas, Danks, Lackey, Gausman, Cashner, or Lilly?
It’d have to be between Lackey, Gausman, and Cashner. The others should be nothing more than streaming options.
I’d go with Gausman and Lackey, mostly because of Cashner’s injury history and lack of K’s thus far.
Gausman, then Cashner, then Lackey. Not interested in Danks, Lilly, or Vargas.
I’d go with Lackey, then Cashner, then Gausman.
I wouldn’t drop Dempster, but that is neither here nor there.
In order: Cashner, Gausman, Lackey, Danks, Vargas, Lilly.
Thanks boys.
what did oswaldo arcia do wrong?
Nothing, really. Probably a roster related move more than a performance one.
Yes ,Lee moves like that drive me nuts . It seems like some teams just love to jerk young players ( and fantasy owners of them ) around. They keep Hicks ,who is clearly over his head offensively ,in the majors and send Arcia ,who was outhitting Hicks by about 100 points and hitting for more power too ,back to the minors .
Dave, and others, what stats do you keep an eye on when looking for players to pickup from free agency and or make a trade for?
I usually start with a 30 day sort, then go to 14 and 7 and finally to game logs.
I’m interested in hearing how others scout for guys to pick up – you can only take a chance on a fraction of the guys you might highlight as possibles.
Three year average, season to date, K:BB, BABIP, HR/FB%, Swing%, SwStr%, park effects, and finally the surrounding lineups.
I’m terrible to make a trade with. I look at so many factors.
dave, where can i see swing% and SwStr% on say a weekly, and biweekly basis?
do you have any guideline on how long a player needs to show a bump in a category before you pull a trigger? In my league at least it seems that if a player is hot for 20abs they usually get claimed as an FA.
We don’t keep track of that on the individual player pages, however you can create a custom leader board to see it.
This is a page of plate discipline for the past 30 days. Be careful with splits like this, as the signal to noise ratio is awful.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=5&season=2013&month=3&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
Plz rank ROS – looking for SP depth in AL only H2H Points League
Counting stats: W, L, ERA, K’s QS
Gausman, Tillman, Lackey
Thanks.
Gausman, Lackey, Tillman.