Roto Riteup: May 25, 2013

As a contractual obligation, the present author would like the reader to be aware of that fact Andrew Cashner is starting today. Plan your fantasy roster and baseball game viewing pleasures accordingly.

On today’s agenda:
1. A solid month from Melky Cabrera
2. John Lackey continues to impress
3. Anibal Sanchez’s gem
4. John Danks‘ return from the DL

A solid month from Melky Cabrera
Over the past month Melky Cabrera has hit .294 and has chipped in two home runs. Though power was never a huge part of Melky’s value, one can reasonably expect double digit home runs from him. In addition to the long balls, it is great to see Melky’s average finally coming around. He may very well hit 10 home runs and steal 10 bases while hitting over .290 for the rest of the season, numbers that should play in just about any league or format. With Jose Reyes still out with an injury and his own hot hitting, Melky has worked his way to the top of the lineup. Since being moved to the lead off spot, Cabrera has scored ten runs in 11 games. He won’t set the world on fire, but Cabrera still makes for a very sound fantasy outfielder.

John Lackey continues to impress
John Lackey was masterful yesterday as he shut down the Cleveland Indians for seven innings. He allowed just one (unearned) run to score and had a mere five base runners allowed on the evening. Lackey struck out eight and now has a 40:11 strikeout to walk ratio on the season. His 2.72 ERA/2.92 FIP/3.02 xFIP is excellent and his velocity has been consistent all season. The time is now to buy low on Lackey, as time may be running out to get him on the cheap. Don’t expect sub-3 ERA the rest of the season, but he is better than a mere stream candidate and deserves to be rostered. He is currently available in 87% of ESPN leagues, 85% of Yahoo! leagues, and 66% of CBS formats.

Anibal Sanchez’s gem
If Lackey’s outing yesterday was masterful, then Anibal Sanchez was utterly sublime. Sanchez hurled a complete game shut out — a one hitter with just four base runners allowed — and fanned 12 along the way. Sanchez now boasts an 80:17 strikeout to walk ratio and has a K/9 above 11. As noted by J.P. Breen, Sanchez has enjoyed a huge uptick in his strikeout rate, however it has come against teams that have whiffed among the most in baseball. If someone in your league is willing to overpay for Sanchez, don’t get in their way.

John Danks‘ return from the DL
In his season debut — and his first major league start since May 19 of last season — John Danks turned in a six inning, three run performance. He struck out five and didn’t allow a walk, though he did allow a two-run homer. Danks probably won’t be a star for you, but he does make for a worthwhile stream or even spot start option. His four-seam fastball averaged almost 90 mph and touched 91 on occasion. Shoulder injuries are always particularly worrisome, however at least in the early going, Danks seems ready to and able enough to stream.





You can catch David spouting off about baseball, soccer, esports and other things by following him on twitter, @davidwiers.

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Ruki Motomiya
10 years ago

Give me Will Venable over Melky any day. Owned in 66% less Yahoo leagues, will put up better numbers despite playing in Petco.

Gordon Shumway
10 years ago
Reply to  Ruki Motomiya

In leagues that value Batting Average and OPS Venable is too much of a liability. A part time outfielder like Chris Young will probably put up similar power and speed numbers as Venable in 200 fewer plate appearances. I’d roster Melky, but Venable is no more than a streaming candidate. Chances are there’s other players with a similar skill set in the free agent pool like Young, Michael Saunders, or Justin Ruggiano.

Ruki Motomiya
10 years ago
Reply to  Gordon Shumway

Venable, career-wise, has hit .252. Isn’t that pretty close to average? Still low, yes, but not unrosterablely so. Either way, Venable seems like he would win in more categories than Melky: Using ZIPs/Steamer and what is said in this, Melky is projected for about 10 HR and 10 SB. Venable is ZIPs/Steamer both project Venable for 10 HR and 16 SB. In addition, while the Padres play in Petco as I mentioned and have a lesser lineup, the Blue Jays have been struggling and while they hit a lot of HR, they have a below average AVG (In line with Venable) from Bautista, E3 and J.P., while Headley hits for a decent AVG clip, even if his power is down (But given he has a .171 ISO compared to .146 career, they should be going up a little…) and Gyorko has good potential and decent AVG (Quentin is a minus, though). Also, Venable should get more RBI, because he is bating #2 with Everth in front of him vs. Melky’s #2 and Rajai Davis in front of him (Everth steals more bases, putting him in singles scoring range, with a higher OBP).

I didn’t bring up Chris Young because I thought he was more owned than he was: surprised to see he is only owned in 10% of Yahoo leagues. Either way, Chris Young hits for LESS of an AVG than Venable career-wise (Probably because his numbers vs. righties have been so much worse than vs. lefties) and Chris Young is suggested to hit 11 HR and steal 11 SB RoS by ZIPs…though they only have him playing 87 games, so when you adjust for playing time, he probably comes out ahead.

Saunders hits for a lower AVG than Venable, walks about as much as Venable and projects out to be around the same in HR/SB when controlled for playing time, but he doesn’t play in any better park than Venable and I’d say the Padres lineup is better than the Venable lineup for run scoring…and while Saunders being leadoff means more runs, Venable behind Everth means more RBI.

Ruggiano is a pretty good comparison for Venable, since his AVG should bounce back up to the .263 career range, probably a bit less (I’m thinking .250-.255?), with comparable HR and SB totals, probably slightly more HR but slightly less SB. Ruggiano is playing on the Marlins, though, in the #5 hole: Greg Dobbs isn’t very good, Giancarlo leaves no RBI chances behind if he homers (which is his primary skill) and Polanco is cooked. On the R side, Rob Brantly isn’t much special at all, Miguel Olivo should need no explanation and Hechavarria is far from anyone able to drive people in. So I feel Venable gets the edge in Runs and possibly even RBI.

Saunders and Ruggiano are also unrsoterable in OPS/OBP leagues, though Chris Young and Melky are. Overall, though, I would rather have Venable over all of them except Young, as Young should put up better stats as long as he gets the PT. And even then, Young is someone you might want to platoon instead of flatout play: He simply has never batted well vs. righties.