Updated Consensus Ranks: Third Base
Third base is slowly creeping up on first base in terms of production. At least in standard twelve team leagues, look at the elite guys. One of them used to be an elite first baseman even. Where you might suffer a little in power when compared to the first basemen, you add a little speed with David Wright and Chase Headley. And where some first basemen make you choose between power and batting average, third base has some guys like Adrian Beltre and Aramis Ramirez that are good in both categories.
That said, once you drop out of the top ten, there’s been plenty of movement. New stars are on the rise — Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado skyrocketed — and some young players have cemented their status — Kyle Seager and Josh Donaldson come to mind. Mike Moustakas is missing some power, Ryan Zimmerman can’t get healthy, and Hanley Ramirez boasts both problems.
Still, this is a position that is likely owned into the low 20s even in twelve-team mixed leagues, because third basemen make decent corner infield fillers, and occasionally even man a utility spot.
Of course, some of you are playing Yuniesky Betancourt and are probably not happy about it.
Who should move up? Down?
With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto.
| RG | JZ | ES | MP | ZS | |
| 1 | Miguel Cabrera | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | David Wright | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Adrian Beltre | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Evan Longoria | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 5 | Chase Headley | 6 | 5 | 6 | 2 |
| 6 | Pablo Sandoval | 7 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 7 | Mark Trumbo | 5 | 7 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Aramis Ramirez | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| 9 | Ryan Zimmerman | 10 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Martin Prado | 8 | 10 | 16 | 10 |
| 11 | Brett Lawrie | 12 | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| 12 | Kyle Seager | 11 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 13 | Manny Machado | 16 | 13 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Hanley Ramirez | 13 | 11 | 12 | 25 |
| 15 | Mark Reynolds | 15 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
| 16 | Nolan Arenado | 17 | 15 | 15 | 14 |
| 17 | Todd Frazier | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| 18 | Mike Moustakas | 14 | 16 | 20 | 19 |
| 19 | Michael Young | 20 | 18 | 22 | 16 |
| 20 | Josh Donaldson | 24 | 20 | 21 | 20 |
| 21 | Will Middlebrooks | 21 | 25 | 18 | 21 |
| 22 | David Freese | 23 | 21 | 19 | 22 |
| 23 | Jedd Gyorko | 22 | 19 | 25 | 23 |
| 24 | Pedro Alvarez | 19 | 22 | 26 | 27 |
| 25 | Matt Carpenter | 33 | 23 | 24 | 18 |
| 26 | Kevin Youkilis | 25 | 24 | 23 | 35 |
| 27 | Chris Johnson | 29 | 29 | 28 | 24 |
| 28 | Trevor Plouffe | 26 | 26 | 33 | 28 |
| 29 | Juan Francisco | 35 | 28 | 29 | 26 |
| 30 | Alberto Callaspo | 32 | 30 | 37 | 31 |
| 31 | Luis Valbuena | 41 | 36 | 27 | 29 |
| 32 | Jordan Pacheco | 27 | 27 | 38 | 41 |
| 33 | Jeff Keppinger | 28 | 32 | 32 | 41 |
| 34 | Maicer Izturis | 41 | 35 | 31 | 33 |
| 35 | Conor Gillaspie | 41 | 33 | 30 | 36 |
| 36 | Lonnie Chisenhall | 30 | 31 | 41 | 41 |
| 37 | Yuniesky Betancourt | 41 | 34 | 35 | 39 |
| 38 | Donovan Solano | 41 | 40 | 41 | 32 |
| 39 | Steve Lombardozzi | 36 | 37 | 41 | 40 |
| 40 | Jamey Carroll | 39 | 38 | 41 | 37 |
| 41 | Chris Nelson | 41 | 41 | 41 | 34 |
| 42 | Matt Dominguez | 38 | 39 | 39 | 41 |
| 43 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 41 | 41 | 36 | 41 |
The following appeared on one ranker’s list: Eric Chavez, Placido Polanco, Alex Rodriguez and Mike Olt.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
These are ROS, so this isn’t a complaint: I am surprised that Donaldson has gone down. Isn’t the spin that he’s actually made some improvements? Even if he hasn’t improved at all and he’s been lucky, I had to check twice to see that he’s been “passed” (or even downgraded).
Well I feel stupid now. He has a green bar. Did I misread it earlier or was it fixed? I guess it doesn’t matter.
Point is, I thought it showed red. Ignore this comment, or continue to anyway
Josh Donaldson 20th? Your methodology is deeply flawed, if it is based on this year’s performances. If it is based on this year plus career, then it is a useless metric for ranking 3B based on 2013 performance. State your methodology up front, please!
“These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto.”
Eno has two 2s. What up with that
HE ALSO HAS NO #3
WITCHCRAFT!!!!!
Frazier is 17th?
I’d like to hear the arguement for why Frazier is 17th compared to, say, Martin Prado.
because Prado is a better fantasy option? Frazier has neither enough power nor enough speed to make up for his pitiful avergae.
Haha, what? Please explain further your great insight into this issue. Should be interesting.
The most HR Prado has hi in a year was 15 in 140 games: In other full-time seasons he has hit 11, 13 and 10 HRs. Just to use an example: ZIPs projects him for 14 HR, 7 steals and a .270 AVG to end the season (10 HR, 6 steals, .283 AVG for RoS). Steamer predicts 14 HR, 8 steals, .273 AVG total (10 HR, 7 Steals, .288 AVG RoS). Prado does not help you with home run or steal counting stats significantly: The only year he stole double digits was last year and seeing how he has only 1 steal this year, it seems unlikely that was more than a blip to me.
Frazier has shown HR power in the Majors before, such as last year, and it is in line with his minor league numbers, suggesting it is not a fluke. HR presumably corrolate well to Runs and RBI because a HR always results in at least one run and one RBI: Frazier may score a bit less runs due to the much lower AVG, but HRs and a decent lineup means he will get in at times and he should have a lot better RBI numbers, while contributing to HR and giving decent but not great Steals, more than Prado has so far and projected to end for more.
Frazier’s ZIPs projection is 22 HR, 11 Steals and a .240 AVG (16 HR, 8 Steals and a .244 AVG RoS). Steamer is predicting an end total of 20 HR, 9 Steals and a .240 AVG (14 HR, 6 Steals, .244 AVG).
So in what way is Prado BETTER than Frazier, save AVG? Runs? Frazier hits HR, gets RBI and steals at at least an equal level. Both play in offensive-friendly home parks, so you can’t say the D-Back’s home stadium is the reason. The only one I can think of is positional flexibility…which to me is silly because Prado is much more valuable at one of his other positions than 3B.
Oh, as a bonus, Frazier is entering his magical age 27 physical peak season.
Jeff, please enlighten us all on why you would take Moustakas or Reynolds or even worse, Brett Lawrie over Manny Machado ROS?…I guess I can sorta see Reynolds if you believe he will keep this up…but the other 2? They’re just living off their days as top prospects, when in reality, if they weren’t big name prospects, they would have likely been demoted already.
My ranks are 100% based off an average of ZiPS and Steamer ROS. For the 3 I had (ran numbers late last week):
Name: AVG/HR/RBI/SB/Runs
Mike Moustakas 0.258/16/61/3.5/54.5
Mark Reynolds 0.227/23/62.5/4/57.5
Manny Machado 0.260/13/51.5/8/51
Moose gets the bump on counting stats, HR, RBI and Runs.
The three were close.
Machados numbers are brought down because steamer thinks he will miss 30 games, overall that seems unlikely and zips is probably closer with 153 games played .
I love that Hanley has a #5 ranking and a #25 ranking. He is the definition of a risk/reward player, but I think it’s easier to make the case for the #5 ranking than the #25 ranking… maybe.
If he’s healthy, he’s closer to #5. But heath has been somewhat of an issue for him lately. And, frankly, he was pretty mediocre last year in Miami even when he was healthy.
Hanley over Headley & RZim at #5. What’s his ETA, and do you think the injury won’t hurt his running game?
Meant for Mike Podz.
It was a mistake and has been fixed.
Cool beans. Really enjoy the podcast, so I heard the correction.
For a rebuilding 5×5 dynasty team (14 team mixed), who would you rather have? Chris Johnson, Juan Francisco, Luis Valbuena, or Conor Gillaspie? My minors are stacked with Olt, Rendon, Bogaerts, and Baez all as possibilities to end up at 3rd or elsewhere, but I have to have someone holding down the major league spot for now. Right now I have Francisco and Gillaspie, but the others I mentioned are available in free agency.
I’m confused as to what in Lawrie’s career has led you to think he is going to be better than Machado the rest of this season? Their career numbers in the majors are similar (Lawrie a bit more speed, Machado a bit more power) except that Machado is also playing much, much better this year.
Miguel Cabrera should be ranked higher.
Just so we are on the same page….Machado has been in the top 12 of the OVERALL player rater in 2 platforms for about 2 weeks….but he is not even top 10 in the 3B rankings. What?!?!?!
These are forward looking (RoS) rankings.
That said I would definitely take him over Seager, Lawrie and Prado at this point. Maybe even Zimm given his health risk. But it’s a little premature to move him up much further than that until he proves he can sustain this kind of performance level.
I find it hard to believe that anybody going into a draft today would really pick Kyle Seager over Manny Machado. Maybe I’m missing something, but even the agnostic projection systems don’t seem to favor Seager.
Don’t understand how Gyorko is ranked at the same number for 3B as 2B….something is wrong.