Updated Consensus Ranks: Starting Pitchers

by
May 20, 2013

We’re coming to an end of the series! We’ve pushed the consensus bullpen ranks over to the Bullpen Report guys, so they’ll have that to you soon. But for these four rankers, this episode is drawing to a halt. You can find all the updated ranks on your right, linked in that helpful little box.

The ranks, and the comments, have provided us with content for the coming weeks. Thank you for communicating which players are the most divisive. That allows us to know exactly which players we should be breaking down, RotoGraphs style. Add to that our timely coverage of players in the news, and we’re set.

Pitching changes on a dime though. While hitters give us their customary four or five plate appearances in a game, pitchers give us roughly five times that information every time they appear. So it’s fair that we break down every appearance for them and weight recent work heavily. And yet, every pitcher has a baseline, and we know how luck, park and weather factors can influence any one matchup. So we have to keep their careers in mind.

And that’s why some might scoff at the top-20 rankings for David Price and Matt Cain. That’s fair, especially in Price’s case, since he’s on the DL and his health outcome is yet to be written. But Matt Cain is doing virtually everything at a career level — except give up home runs. So either his pop-up skill (or home-run suppressing skill) was never real, or it was real and it just went away for a while. But if Cain’s command has completely left him, it’s not obvious in his walk rates. Or his velocity, really. Or his swinging strike or strikeout rates. So we’ll give him a little benefit of the doubt here.

Plenty of movement here, but there’s also an interesting group in the 50s that didn’t move enough to warrant a color change: Jeremy Hellickson, Marco Estrada, Trevor Cahill, C.J. Wilson, and Edwin Jackson. Their fates are all going in different directions — as well as their peripherals — and our rankers all had different opinions, but it average out to about the “meh” ranking they got before. Expect to see some of these pitchers broken down.

Who would you like to see more analysis about? Who sticks out for you?

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With the color-coding we hope to highlight the biggest movers. That definition changes as you follow the ranks down the list — players had to move more to register a color change as you near the bottom of the list. These are rest-of-season rankings for 5×5 roto.

RG Name JZ ES MP ZS
1 Clayton Kershaw 1 1 1 1
2 Justin Verlander 3 2 2 2
3 Felix Hernandez 4 4 3 3
4 Yu Darvish 2 3 4 8
5 Cliff Lee 5 5 5 4
6 Stephen Strasburg 11 6 6 5
7 CC Sabathia 13 8 8 11
8 Madison Bumgarner 7 10 15 9
9 Max Scherzer 6 9 9 17
10 Chris Sale 15 11 10 7
11 Adam Wainwright 14 13 13 6
12 James Shields 10 15 7 14
13 Cole Hamels 8 18 12 10
14 Zack Greinke 12 7 14 22
15 Mat Latos 16 14 17 13
16 Matt Harvey 27 12 18 12
17 David Price 9 21 23 21
18 Matt Cain 18 29 11 18
19 Gio Gonzalez 17 20 26 19
20 Matt Moore 22 17 20 27
21 Jeff Samardzija 19 16 30 24
22 Jake Peavy 25 22 19 31
23 Jon Lester 26 23 22 28
24 Johnny Cueto 36 24 29 15
25 Jordan Zimmermann 40 19 33 20
26 Jered Weaver 29 31 40 16
27 Anibal Sanchez 24 28 36 29
28 Homer Bailey 31 27 24 36
29 Doug Fister 42 32 27 25
30 A.J. Burnett 28 30 31 37
31 Mike Minor 33 26 54 23
32 Yovani Gallardo 20 36 34 48
33 R.A. Dickey 30 42 28 45
34 Derek Holland 37 37 45 30
35 Shelby Miller 76 25 21 33
36 Ian Kennedy 23 39 51 44
37 Ryan Dempster 38 40 43 40
38 Lance Lynn 44 34 49 38
39 Hyun-Jin Ryu 41 38 47 39
40 Hiroki Kuroda 49 45 38 34
41 Tommy Milone 35 44 39 51
42 Clay Buchholz 74 35 35 32
43 Tim Lincecum 21 60 25 70
44 Hisashi Iwakuma 53 52 46 26
45 Kris Medlen 63 33 41 41
46 Alex Cobb 72 43 32 35
47 Matt Garza 45 47 37 57
48 Dan Haren 34 54 52 54
49 Josh Johnson 62 48 44 46
50 Brandon Morrow 39 41 69 56
51 Justin Masterson 46 56 53 61
52 Jeremy Hellickson 68 50 57 42
53 Marco Estrada 50 73 42 52
54 Trevor Cahill 52 46 48 71
55 C.J. Wilson 43 55 58 63
56 Edwin Jackson 32 59 63 72
57 Ervin Santana 55 67 64 62
58 Francisco Liriano 58 62 55 73
59 Josh Beckett 48 71 65 67
60 Wade Miley 65 63 81 47
61 Wandy Rodriguez 59 61 66 75
62 Jarrod Parker 70 64 75 53
63 Tim Hudson 95 70 56 43
64 A.J. Griffin 84 57 74 49
65 Ubaldo Jimenez 56 58 78 79
66 Patrick Corbin 66 51 61 94
67 Kyle Lohse 57 77 89 50
68 Jon Niese 51 72 68 86
69 Andrew Cashner 117 49 50 66
70 Alexi Ogando 83 53 93 55
71 Phil Hughes 47 85 70 106
72 Brandon McCarthy 89 76 86 58
73 Paul Maholm 75 75 82 84
74 Felix Doubront 77 93 71 78
75 Jose Fernandez 123 66 67 65
76 Ryan Vogelsong 64 84 97 82
77 Bronson Arroyo 80 86 85 77
78 Zach McAllister 94 94 76 69
79 Chris Capuano 71 95 59 115
80 Wei-Yin Chen 91 80 72 99
81 Bud Norris 60 83 108 93
82 Dan Straily 86 97 79 85
83 Shaun Marcum 69 102 94 90
84 Colby Lewis 123 68 98 68
85 Travis Wood 73 79 83 123
86 Andy Pettitte 110 101 96 59
87 Brandon Beachy 123 65 121 60
88 Jose Quintana 121 81 73 95
89 Ricky Nolasco 54 114 99 105
90 Chris Tillman 98 78 103 101
91 Daniel Hudson 123 74 123 64
92 David Phelps 113 69 122 80
93 John Lackey 120 91 77 102
94 Jaime Garcia 61 87 123 120
95 Jason Hammel 85 88 95 123
96 Mike Leake 108 99 90 96
97 Kyle Kendrick 103 98 84 109
98 Ivan Nova 87 96 88 123
99 Jason Vargas 78 123 107 87
100 Brett Anderson 123 92 92 88
101 Tommy Hanson 67 123 113 92
102 Carlos Villanueva 96 119 123 74
103 James McDonald 81 109 100 123
104 Rick Porcello 101 123 80 111
105 Zack Wheeler 123 89 123 81
106 Ross Detwiler 123 90 87 117
107 Erasmo Ramirez 111 106 123 83
108 Mark Buehrle 97 121 114 91
109 Scott Feldman 112 103 101 107
110 Roberto Hernandez 123 118 62 123
111 Scott Diamond 123 123 105 76
112 Barry Zito 123 105 112 89
113 Matt Harrison 88 104 116 123
114 Joe Blanton 82 116 120 118
115 Julio Teheran 123 100 91 123
116 Drew Smyly 93 122 123 100
117 Jhoulys Chacin 123 111 104 104
118 Edinson Volquez 100 123 110 110
119 Scott Baker 92 108 123 123
120 Hector Santiago 123 82 123 123
121 Wade Davis 102 123 115 112
122 Jeff Locke 123 113 123 97
123 Jorge de la Rosa 123 112 123 98
124 Tony Cingrani 107 123 123 103
125 Lucas Harrell 123 123 102 114
126 Brett Myers 99 123 117 123
127 Bartolo Colon 123 110 109 123
128 Juan Nicasio 115 107 123 123
129 Joe Saunders 123 123 118 108
130 Jair Jurrjens 123 117 123 113
131 Kevin Correia 123 123 119 116
132 Michael Wacha 123 120 123 119

These players appeared on one set of rankings: Trevor Bauer, Chris Archer, Corey Kluber, Mike Fiers, Dillon Gee, Vance Worley, Jeremy Guthrie, Wade LeBlanc, Jordan Lyles, Josh Collmenter, Franklin Morales, Ted Lilly, Henderson Alvarez, J.A. Happ, Scott Kazmir and Danny Hultzen.





 

With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

128 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Jaker
13 years ago

I know it’s splitting hairs, but I like Darvish ahead of Hernandez and probably Verlander going forward because of the Ks and win potential.

0
Kip
13 years ago

Pineda doesn’t make it to the list?

-1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Kip

Shoulders suck and he only had two pitches when he was going well. I had no idea where to put him. I guess he could go in the low 100s, where you’re taking shots on guys like Wheeler anyway.

0
Kip
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Didn’t mean to vote down – accident. Thanks for response – thought he might elicit a bit more optimism.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Kip

Looks like he wouldn’t have made it onto the list, I was the only one who would have ranked him in the top 120. But I do think he’s worth a pickup, over characters like Villanueva and Hanson.

0
Joe
13 years ago

Comical where Shelby Miller is ranked. Absolutely comical. Nerds need to get out more. Site loses credibility. Might as well go to ESPN.

-30
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Our credibility should hinge on where we rank a rookie pitcher with two pitches? Okay! Also, you can clearly see that the more human rankers would have put him five or six spots higher. How much of a difference are you looking for?

11
Joe
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

This is a fantasy site and there is no league in the world where you can trade Derek Holland, Jake Peavy, Homer Bailey or Yovani Gallardo for Shelby Miller.

I know it is fun to dig your heels in, but I hope you enjoy missing the bus.

-8
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

That doesn’t mean that he necessarily will outproduce those guys. He’s got an innings limit, he’s a rookie, and he only has two pitches right now. I love him, and you might be right about trading, but if someone offered me Jake Peavy and an upgrade for my Miller and something else in a redraft, I’d take it. We’re always going to be a little different because we gravitate towards the projections created by ZiPs and Steamer.

7
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Please pay attention to the individual rankings. The consensus rankings are more about getting an idea how players might be valued by different types of owners than anything else.
Other than JZ, the other three rankers had Miller within 3 spots of Peavy, one had him behind Holland, and everyone else had Miller ahead of Bailey/Gallardo/Holland.

3
eyetwitch
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

I’m not sure if you’re being serious… regardless you’ll notice that one ranker has him at 76, and the other have him 10 slots higher than he actually is, so really you should only blame one person here (because 76 is pretty freakin high….)

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  eyetwitch

Without the 76, he slots in at #20. Personally, that seems high for a guy with no track record in the bigs.

3
Brandon
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

You’re taking him over who in the top-25 exactly? Maybe Matt Moore or Gio – the only two without over one season of excellent pitching.

1
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

All these “site loses credibility” comments are ridiculous. Two guys think Miller is a top-25 pitcher, another has him at 33, and one doesn’t think he’ll continue to be effective with just two pitches. That sounds quite reasonable to me.

10
kid
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Who cares whether Miller has one pitch or five, or if he’s a rookie or not? He’s got a 2.27 career FIP and strikeout rate of 29% – his peripherals are fantastic. The only things that should worry anybody are a potential innings cap (which is a long way off, even if it does happen) or injury (which applies to every SP). The guy’s pitching like a true-talent 3.0 ERA pitcher right now.

-3
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

When your “career” is 65 innings, I’d rather know about pitching mix and velocity than FIP.

19
kid
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

His velocity is very good for a RHP, sitting at 93 while getting up to 96-97. To date, his fastball ranks 10th in pitch value, while his curveball ranks 1st.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

Still two pitches. And yet. I love him! I put him in the top 25, among many more established pitchers that don’t have any sort of questions about innings limits.

2
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

Why it matters:
1) Miller is currently throwing his fastball 75.5% of the time. In the past decade, only 16 pitchers have thrown a fastball over 70% in a season, only four of them did it with a strikeout rate over 20%, and only seven had an ERA- and xFIP- better than league average. Not to say it can’t be done, but it’s not easy for a pitcher to succeed with such heavy fastball usage.
2) He’s a rookie, which means no track record in the major leagues. This matters quite a bit.

The most important point here however is that three of four rankers believe in Miller, but his heavy fastball usage and lack of track record are enough to scare off one ranker, and this is far from “comical”.

15
JRoss
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

You should buy him for what ever it takes

0
pudieron89
13 years ago

no Kazmir?

-1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  pudieron89

He was on one list, but not the rest!

0
tylersnotes
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

for guys who only appear on one list, couldn’t you have them ranked last for everyone who didn’t rank him? So if Kazmir is ranked 50th by zach, he’s ranked 133rd by everyone else? This would be a dozen guys ranked 133rd, but that’s fine. The readers here are obviously an understanding and forgiving bunch, and certain to carefully analyze and think about our reactions to any rankings before jumping to hasty judgement or undue slander.

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I’ve done that for anyone that was ranked twice. (See all the 123rd-ranked pitchers). But if a guy was ranked once… I thought this was the better way to go. You’d rather see them with their one ranking? I can do that pretty easily going forward.

0
tylersnotes
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

you’d do that for me, eno? aw shucks

2
Jay
13 years ago

I feel like this article should be targeted at you guys: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/maybe-its-time-we-stop-underrating-pitchers-from-asian-countries/

Kuroda is worse than Derek Holland and Ian Kennedy, Iwakuma is worse than Lincecum?

15
JMH
13 years ago

I’m very surprised that Ian Kennedy is still ranked so high. And looks like Alex Cobb would be ranked inside the Top 40 if it weren’t for JZ’s ranking.

And none of you are buying Justin Masterson?

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  JMH

I’m definitely not buying Masterson. Still only has two pitches, and a righty sinker/slider guy is missing a weapon to get lefties out. Right now, he’s burying it on their hands, but I doubt those pitches continue to be strikes and don’t catch too much zone in the future. The bet fastball/slider guys we’ve seen are Pineda, Norris and Masterson. I think that captures how I feel about him. Can be decent, won’t be great.

0
Oil Can
13 years ago

JZ has Buchholz at 74, one spot ahead of Paul Maholm? Gotta be a typo, right?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Oil Can

No he uses Steamer and ZiPs projections, which aren’t really buying Buchholz’ new self, probably because his velocity hasn’t changed. The recent uptick in swinging strike rate has me intrigued.

0
Oil Can
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

His top velocity may not have changed, but he’s second in the league on swing & misses on his change (55%). His changeup is so good he’s not throwing his split at all, and that’s a huge driver for his success to date.

0
GT
13 years ago

I’d be interested to read some of the outliers justifications.

Cashner – 117
Shelby Miller – 76
Jaime Garcia – 61
Zimmmermann – 40

…actually it’s all JZ’s ranks that stick out.

1
shibboleth
13 years ago
Reply to  GT

JZ uses steamer and ZIPs projects, so as I understand it they’re pure projection aggregations… no “gut instinct” or “intuition” involved in them. Merely meant to be a baseline, I think.

0
Cheesewhiz
13 years ago

Jordan Zimmermann should change his last name to Underrated.

4
Jason B.
13 years ago
Reply to  Cheesewhiz

You mean “underratedd.”

34
Will
13 years ago
Reply to  Jason B.

Agreed. I mentioned in the first SP ranking article that he was underrated, but kind of expected it. Now, though, after confirming yet again how good he is it blows my mind that he isn’t getting top recognition. I’d like to know why, as I’m sure everyone has their reasons…

1
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  Jason B.

Poor strikeout rate and he can’t possibly continue significantly outperforming his SIERA like he has been. Plus, that walk rate is going to jump, especially if his F-Strike% remains below average.

0
senrad
13 years ago
Reply to  Jason B.

I wish I could say things like Podhorzer’s reply and actually know what I’m talking about. It sounds wicked smart.

0
Cheesewhiz
13 years ago
Reply to  Jason B.

@ Mike:

While I know that you have a much better understanding of the stats than I do, I still think he is underrated. Or Underratedd. I’m not putting him in the top 10, but I’d rank him higher than at least 5 other pitchers listed.

His numbers seem fairly consistent with past performance to me. What I see is a jump in ground balls and a decrease in fly balls, which would explain better BABIP. Along with a big drop in HR/FB rate. His walk rate is lower than the past, but its always been low. If he maintains his improved GB rate and FB rate, I don’t see why he doesn’t end up better than last year.

As for K, yes, its low for an elite pitcher. He is a pitch to contact type pitcher, at least in style. His stated goal is efficiency, not k-rate. The best comparison I can think of is a good Tim Hudson. Or maybe Kyle Lohse. And while I get the bias against those kinds of pitchers, in a roto 5×5 I’ll take plus performance in W, ERA and WHIP over say, Samardzija, who is only elite in K but mediocre in ERA and WHIP and looks to be terrible at W.

Obviously, Zim will not finish the year with a 1.60 ERA. But a sub 3.00 ERA with a 1.17 WHIP is still pretty valuable. And I am really not seeing how Jered Weaver is expected to be anywhere close to Zimmermann’s numbers yet is only one spot behind him. Either Zimmermann is underrated or Jered Weaver is vastly overrated. I’d argue both.

0
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago

Interested in Gallardo v. Ian Kennedy. Both have disappointed so far, both have seen drop in K%. Gallardo has seen drop in velocity and swinging strike rate causing an 8% drop in K% (wow). Kennedy on the other hand, has no change in velocity or swinging strike rate from last year; he’s walked more batters, due to a drop in zone %, but first-strike % remains similar.
Guess I’m trying to say that I’m really worried about Gallardo, and I’d probably rather have Kennedy the rest of the way.

0
JeffM
13 years ago

Surprised by JZ ranking Jordan Zimmermann so low. 40th SP, behind his rank of Edwin Jackson, Tommy Milone, etc?

-1
NadavT
13 years ago
Reply to  JeffM

Same Initial Bias at work.

1
Jon L.
13 years ago
Reply to  NadavT

Can you explain your reasoning? The data I’ve seen in the SIB literature would predict a higher ranking, rather than a lower one.

1
Ezekiel
13 years ago

Is the reason for Jose Fernandez and Andrew Cashner’s extremely low ranking by JZ that they have very low IP rest of season projections? Can this be corrected somehow?

1
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Ezekiel

It could be, but should it? Jose has an innings limit and Cashner is one of the most brittle guys in ball.

0
Ezekiel
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Zips has no projection for Fernandez, and Steamer has him pitching 50 innings rest of season for a total of 110 innings. Several articles like the one linked below have fernandez on a 150-160 innings limit, meaning he would pitch 90-100 innings, almost double what steamer has him penciled in for, if this were corrected, I woul guess his JZ projection would fall closer in line with the other three experts.

inningshttp://blogs.palmbeachpost.com/marlins/2013/05/10/agent-scott-boras-likes-marlins-plans-to-limit-jose-fernandezs-innings/

1
Blockhead
13 years ago

Why is JZ allowed to participate in this still? It’s obvious he puts zero thought or effort into this. Every day that another one of these are released, it makes this site look more and more unprofessional.

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Blockhead

He has a regimented process which actually takes some time. He mixes ZiPs and Steamer projections and then runs them through our auction calculator for rankings. Most of the players that you guys like more are players that people like more than the projections.

1
Oil Can
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Per JZ:

Clay Buchholz – 74
Felix Doubront – 77

On no planet does that make sense. Whatever his regimented process is, there should be some sort of sniff test at the end of it.

-2
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Felix Doubront (2012) – 23.6% strikeout rate, 3.32 FIP, 3.78 xFIP
Clay Buchholz (2010-2012) – 16.6% strikeout rate, 4.19 FIP, 4.26 xFIP

Sure, I’d rather have Buchholz, but given their track records I hardly think that it’s ridiculous to rank these two pitchers near each other.

3
Blockhead
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

There’s no bias on getting mad about any certain players I think are better or worse.

Its troubling seeing him constantly be the outlier and you can tell its because he exports some projections, runs some numbers with zero thought or adjustments and could care less after that.

-1
wily moMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

maybe people would get less angry if you just named that column “zips/steamer” and didn’t pretend it was a human. people like to get angry at humans

7
mike
13 years ago

How is Harvey not a top 5 SP? just ridiculous

-17
juan pierres mustacheMember since 2016
13 years ago
Reply to  mike

I was idly entertaining myself reading through the replies, but this one is the one that really got me. It has all the ideal factors: an outrageous expectation of a high ranking for an unproven personal favorite, a total lack of explanation for why that expectation might make sense, and a “just ridiculous” followup sentence. 10/10

40
kid
13 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

Personal favorite? Guy isn’t talking about freaking Francisco Liriano. Between this year and last, Harvey has been phenomenal. Outstanding peripherals, elite pitch velocity, and top-12 in four individual pitch values.

-4
Clifford
13 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

and you continue to thoroughly overrate unproven pitchers that don’t have anywhere near the track record as some of the veterans pitchers. i would suggest looking at the splits of some of the following guys their rookie years: Michael Pineda, Michael Fiers, Scott Diamond, Alexi Ogando, AJ Griffin, Jose Quintana, James McDonald, etc etc etc.

2
juan pierres mustacheMember since 2016
13 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

He’s been phenomenal. He has top-5 upside, sure. He also has 123 MLB innings and a probable IP cap. One could perhaps craft an interesting argument for putting him in the top 5 (and karabell over at espn has been doing just that); it’s nothing close to ridiculous to put him mid-teens, though.

3
kid
13 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

What is a “proven” pitching commodity? Jared Weaver? Matt Cain? RA Dickey? If a guy is excelling and his performance is backed by peripherals, why does it matter if he has 100 career IP or 1000? The projection systems on which FG heavily rely are telling us that Harvey is a legitimate stud, yet there’s an overwhelming air of “waiting for the other shoe to drop” regarding many youngsters. FIP is telling us he’s a 2.21 ERA pitcher, and xFIP is 2.9 – yet there’s still this “Oh, yeah? Well, wait till that normalizes!” -type of nose thumbing. You guys can continue going with the old guard and reading columns about what’s wrong with Cole Hamels and David Price, I’ll enjoy Harvey’d production. In closing, guy pitched 170 innings last year between two levels. If he’s at all capped this year, it’s gotta be in the ~200 range, which is totally fine with me.

-3
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  juan pierres mustache

You want to put Harvey in the top five. I like him at 12. I see very little difference, and we’re probably talking about a few walks here or there. If you’re talking about the projections on our site, they all have him with a walk rate that fits his career better. He’s never had an elite walk rate, and only once has he been average. His current walk rate is about three times better than the the one he showed in college. So yeah, there’s reason to think that maybe he’s not a top five pitcher. And I’m a Mets fan that loves Harvey and thought long and hard about putting him anywhere from 6-14. Did not think about putting him five.

4
Colonel Angus
13 years ago

Sabathia seems really high especially with the velocity drop…I wouldnt take him over Waino with a gun to my head.

0
drewcorbMember since 2026
13 years ago
Reply to  Colonel Angus

I’d take Bruce Chen over Clayton Kershaw if there was a gun to my head.

40
kid
13 years ago

You should seriously do us all a favor and exclude JZ’s rankings from the consensus. His rankings horribly skew what is otherwise a pretty useful exercise.

-3
Simon
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

Totally disagree. It’s very useful to have rankings that are based on stats rather than just having four different sets of rankings based on much the same thing. It would be interesting to go back at the end of the season and look to see whose rankings were most accurate.

3
batpig
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

adding a purely objective element as 25% of a ranking, with the other 75% being subjective rankings, is not “horribly skewing”. It’s exactly the opposite.

Humans are bad at projections, thanks to all of the funny biases we see on display in these comments. Adding an objective hedge is a good thing, it’s essentially a “regression” element for the consensus.

2
longbeachyoMember since 2026
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

Beat it, kid!

0
Turbo Sloth
13 years ago

Kinda surprised to see Jimenez get such a boost and Kazmir not get that same benefit of the doubt… Jimenez still has a lot to prove

1
Dancing Homer
13 years ago

AJ Burnett might be 30th in these rankings, but he’s #1 in my heart.

2
marlins12
13 years ago

Who is JZ? Please fire him.

-3
KMen
13 years ago

As a Haren owner, I’m happy to see him ranked as high as he is, but I’m kinda surprised. He’s really not showing any skills anymore, and his peripherals and advanced metrics are pretty horrible this year. I know the pitchers below him aren’t exactly aces themselves, but at least a lot of them offer some upside. I’d be interested to hear justification on Haren’s ranking.

1
Will
13 years ago
Reply to  KMen

And if you give him the eye-test (I’ve had the displeasure of seeing him a few times at the park this year) even though his peripherals are actually ok, when hitters make contact it is HARD. Span, alone, saved him four runs in one game, and that wasn’t an outlier.

1
kid
13 years ago

Why are you guys being so head-in-the-sand regarding Hamels? His FIP is 4.8 and the xFIP is 4.3. His K/BB rate this year is barely 2/1. And he’s actually been a touch lucky, with that ~.250 BABIP.

0
Clifford
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

youre comments suggest that you are the kind of fantasy owner that prolly dropped Justin verlander after his last start, didn’t you? its ok, you can admit it to us….I would have to say though, “kid”, seems quite appropriate in this instance.

-2
kid
13 years ago
Reply to  Clifford

Verlander I kept. Wish I could say the same about Kershaw.

1
Worm Turner
13 years ago
Reply to  kid

Jeez kid, maybe it’s high time to publish your own rankings already…

The entire purpose of these consensus rankings is to show the variance and convergence of opinion amongst the authors.

Sure, I may feel indignant about a few players, but I think it’s a fascinating insight, especially if you’ve been a long time reader and are familiar with the proclivities of the personalities involved.

1
Jon L.
13 years ago
Reply to  Worm Turner

Here’s a vote for describing who the rankers are and their proclivities. That would take some wind out of the complaints and make the site more fun to read.

While I’m on the subject, a guide to the site might be a good idea too. Newcomers to the site who don’t know the commenting rules under the “fan” and “roto” headers keep getting reamed, even though there’s no way for them to infer that adjacent columns represent completely different cultural paradigms.

0
shibboleth
13 years ago

Here’s hoping it’s only upward and onward for Garza…

0
Trevor
13 years ago

Hey, can you contribute to our latest SP ranking article?

Sure.

I need your top-130 or so starters by Monday.

No problem, I’ll just copy and paste ZIPs it will take like 13 seconds.

17
Eyebrows
13 years ago

Any concern over Cole Hamels and his K, BB and HR rates? I was offered him for Adrian Gonzalez. I have Moreland and LaRoche as backup options. Would you take the offer?

0
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago
Reply to  Eyebrows

There have been two articles about Cole Hamels published here over the past two weeks (they are the first two listed on his player page) that can probably help you make your decision.

0
Giovani
13 years ago

Scherzer and MadBum are ranked as 8 and 9, respectively, but listed in reverse order of that. It goes 7-9-8.

0
tylersnotes
13 years ago

it would be awesome, in future iterations, to see the movement from the previous consensus rankings. I’d love to see this for all rankers, but just generally comparing “original pre-season” rank to “current rank” would be helpful.

in order to fit in better with other commenters here, i demand my suggestion be put into effect immediately or else you should all be fired for sucking.

3
Worm Turner
13 years ago
Reply to  tylersnotes

The previous ranking were available in the rankings last year, not sure why it was dropped.

Bring em back please!

1
Joe
13 years ago

JZ is horrible. Really bringing this down to ESPN level. Look at the pitchers rated over Jordan Zimmermann. Just look.

-2
Matthew Murphy
13 years ago
Reply to  Joe

Now that I realize you must be trolling, I feel pretty stupid for taking the time to respond to your posts earlier.

2
CardsontheBat
13 years ago

Everyone thinks they can do a better job, which is why fantasy is so fun. I like it that the contributors to the site actually comment and defend their ratings here.

4
Jonathan
13 years ago
Reply to  CardsontheBat

Well, Eno comments on these articles, but none of the other guys, that I can see. So, mega kudos to Eno for hanging around to defend his beliefs. Too bad he has to spend too much of his time fighting JZ’s battles…

1
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  Jonathan

I’m here, I’m here! Been busy all day, finally got around to read the whining. Aside from the typical complaining about Zimmerman using ZiPS and Steamer, doesn’t seem too bad.

0
Jonathan
13 years ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Kudos, Mike! Glad to see you joined the party, and I did just notice a comment or two by you above. Thanks for stopping in.

0
Jason B.
13 years ago

Lincecum may be the widest spread I’ve seen on any single player; 21/25/60/70 = “we have no real consensus, good luck figuring him out!”

(Which I totally understand, the freak is now the enigma.)

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  Jason B.

Yeah, that’s the “I own him in half my leagues” bias going on. He must make his H2H owners heads explode, but I think if you just hold him all season and not second guess every start, he’ll be good.

1
metsox
13 years ago

If there was only somewhere on this website to figure out the names of these Mashed Men!

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  metsox

Apparently Eno wanted to add a layer of mystery to the rankers.

JZ = Jeff Zimmerman, but using a mix of ZiPS and Steamer projections
ES = The man, the myth, the legend himself, Eno Sarris
MP = yours truly
ZS = Zach Sanders

0
Cybo
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

“”Apparently Eno wanted to add a layer of mystery to the rankers.

JZ = Just ZiPS
ES = The man, the myth, the legend himself, Eno Sarris
MP = yours truly
ZS = Zach Sanders””

FTFY

0
Pops
13 years ago

Eno,
Any reason to worry about Brandon Morrow? His projections look rather favorable for the ROS.

-1
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  Pops

Hi, I’m not Eno, but I could help! The strikeouts have now gone missing for over a year. Without the strikeouts, he’s pretty worthless. Don’t know what happened, but it’s looking less and less likely they suddenly reappear.

0
ML
13 years ago

A little clarity on Kuroda would be helpful. Only 1 of you ranked him better than Dickey. I realize some of the peripherals are down, but from a roto perspective, I don’t get it.

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  ML

It’s just a matter of not giving up on Dickey just yet after his last several seasons. Kuroda’s peripherals should rebound looking at his advanced metrics, but he’s old (more a concern than for a knuckleballer) and so even though his peripherals should get better, it’s not guarantee. And that K rate sucks.

0
MFYG
13 years ago

good god some of the people here are assholes. your lives must be fucking incredible to complain so much about fantasy baseball rankings. I hope you need to win your league to pay a ransom or some shit.

6
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
13 years ago
Reply to  MFYG

Calm your buns! Fantasy owners just feel personally insulted when one of their precious pitchers is ranked lower than they want to see.

2
DialC
13 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

If everyone ranks my pitchers highly, there’s no possible way they can fail!

0
Jacob
13 years ago

Surprised to see Mike Minor over Dickey.

0
The Sheriff
13 years ago

I’d like to see some Matt Moore analysis, has he improved on anything from last year? Are there signs of regression coming? Has he been getting lucky/unlucky? Just wondering if he’s made strides from last season. He’s only 23 so there’s time for him to improve control and max out potential.

1
Worm Turner
13 years ago
Reply to  The Sheriff

Extremely lucky.

The walk rate is worrisome, but even more distressing is his .198 BABIP/ 91.8% LOB%, expect some serious regression.

On top of that his FB velocity is down almost 2 mph (94.1 to 92.6) which is pretty significant and should be watched.

Furthermore, he is also throwing more sliders (16.8 to 22.5%), which can’t be too great for his arm.

That said, I do still like him, but beware an don’t pay attention to the wins.
He also benefits greatly by having the Rays defense behind him.

-1
Reed
13 years ago

Bahahahahahaha Liriano at 58!!!!! ahead of Miley, Corbin, and many others

Josh Johnson at 49!?!? — he’s not been good in like 3 years and he’s on the DL.

1
Dancing Homer
13 years ago
Reply to  Reed

Liriano is going to dominate. Know how I know why? I picked him up last week and he better! 😛

-1
Ruki Motomiya
13 years ago
Reply to  Reed

Johnson was good last year. Not great, but 3.81 ERA + 7.76 K/9 makes him a decent lower end starter with high upside. Also, in 2010 he was excellent and his 2011 was looking great before his usual injuredness. JJ can be worthwhile once he comes back, DL means he is easy to trade and stash.

0
daveabbruz
13 years ago

Here’s the thing Eno, you’re neck and neck with the guy that runs razzball for my favorite fantasy source. Love what you do, but I have to agree with the pack here that these rankings become almost useless due to the constant differences between rankers. It’s not just JZ either. It’s a shame that you guys seem to put some work in and the product is pretty diminished to the reader. So, how do we fix this? Giving readers the ability to click on the rankers initials to see their own personal ranks would clear things up. For example, I’d just click on your name and disregard the other rankers opinions. Other people may be a Pod fan or be Steamer/Zip loyalists, etc.

2
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  daveabbruz

That sounds interesting to me. I’ll ask the boss if he can code something up like that. Maybe a google doc would allow y’all to do that yourself. We did that in the preseason (see the draft resources links), that would be easy enough.

For me, it’s about showing y’all the way these were made. We have different guys with different opinions, and a basically a projection-driven one. It all goes in and out comes the sausage.

2
daveabbruz
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

Yeah, ESPN does it and most of those guys are pretty fantasy challenged. I end up just clicking on Karabell’s ranks so I don’t have to look at the nonsense rankings from Berry and AJ Mass. I understand differences of opinion can be helpful at times, but if it’s not a major hassle being able to sort the rankers would be very useful to me and I’d wager I wouldn’t be the only beneficiary.

2
Jeff
13 years ago

I wait until I have no distractions to read these. That’s how much fun they are, especially the disagreements.
As an owner, I love that Beachy’s so high even before returning. And here’s hoping this is the new Anibal.

1
Paul
13 years ago

Slowey didn’t make any list? An oversight, or do I think he’s better than he is?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Paul

Oversight, didn’t make our IP minimums, but should be in. I’ll ask the guys for a rank.

1
James
13 years ago

JV’s rankings are pretty abhorrent.

0
Wobbles
13 years ago

corbin outside the top 60, after ubaldo??

1
JRMayneMember since 2016
13 years ago

I see there is much whinging over the rankings. But I want to put this out there: Of the three above Masterson, the three below Masterson, and Masterson, I’ll bet on Masterson vs. each of them, and I don’t think it’s that close.

And by “bet,” I mean I’ll donate $100 to GiveDirectly if I win fewer than three of those six matchups. Which isn’t really a bet if I don’t get anything, but if any of the rankers want to put up a FG+ subscription for 2014 up if I win four or more, I’m there for it. Otherwise, free charity money if I’m wrong. (Being wrong when highly confident should cost.)

(Brief rationale: Stuff is better than the others. Velocity’s better than most. Trend lines are better than all. Not everyone’s the Mariners, but he looked great against them. Division has White Sox and Twins in it, and he only has to face one of the top two offenses in the division. He’s going to be vulnerable to lefties because of the pitch movement, but I think some of the improvement on that front is real.)

–JRM

1
bballislife17
13 years ago
Reply to  JRMayne

Honestly it isn’t that much of a stretch to say anyone on that list might out perform the three pitchers above and below them in the rankings. If you think about these things in terms of tiers, pitchers right next to each other are basically equal.

If you want to bet that Masterson will out perform someone 20 spots higher, then that would actually be taking a strong position.

1
batpig
13 years ago

Eno — Serious suggestion:

Since with EVERY SINGLE consensus projection article we get a slew of people outraged at JZ’s rankings, you could consider doing one of two things:

1. at the beginning of the rankings table include a quick note reminding people that JZ’s rankings are a simple aggregate of ZiPS/Steamer projections, so commenters shouldn’t get all outraged because it’s just what a computer spits out.

(or)

2. don’t even use his name and call it the “Z/S” column or something, and just explain that it’s an objective ranking based on computer projections and exists as a hedge against the other three subjective rankings.

I think if people understood the function of that column as opposed to assuming (rightly, in the absence of any explanation) that it’s one guy’s wacky noncomformist subjective rankings, it would calm a lot of the self-righteous outrage type comments.

1
Dave
13 years ago

I have no objections. Well done.

0
Smell the glove
13 years ago

Should I trade Corbin for Mark Reynolds? Is this a good sell high?

0
GraydogMember since 2025
13 years ago

Im looking to drop one of Marcum, Lincecum, Estrada and Neise. How would you rank them?

0
JC
13 years ago

Would you guys trade Stras and a 4th round for Cain and a 1st in a keeper league?

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  JC

I wouldn’t.

0
JC
13 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I should have specified, I’d get Stras. So, basically, do it?

0
Tancook
13 years ago

What about Tyler Skaggs? I don’t see him anywhere and no mention of him…

0
Eno SarrisMember since 2020
13 years ago
Reply to  Tancook

I do not like Tyler Skaggs. At all. Mediocre-to-bad FB velocity, one plus secondary pitch.

0
Paul
13 years ago

Traded Corbin away and need a replacement. The Dback boys are available-Kennedy, Haren, McCarthy. Wandy Rodriguez, Estrada and now Holland is on waivers.

What’s my best choice ROS? Thanks!

0
Dave
13 years ago

odd Asian cluster 37-44. I would have each of them higher. THanks for giving us all fun stuff to shoot at

0
Brett
13 years ago

I have Shelby Miller in a 12-team redraft points league. Looking to possibly sell high because of his innings cap. Do Matt Cain or Zack Greinke make good buy low targets?

0