Archive for Uncategorized

I opened up trade talks with my esteemed colleague Brandon Warne the other day, inquiring on one of his three elite SS in our ottoneu league.

“Any chance you are interested in moving [Manny] Machado, Xander [Bogaerts] or [Carlos] Correa? You can only use two at SS/MI and while you could play Machado at 3B, you have [Miguel] Sanothere.”

His reply was direct – “Probably will just start Sano at util.”

But I still need a SS and he still has a monopoly (those three plus Brad Miller and Starlin Castro), so how do I convince him to part with one of his prize possessions?
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Thirty-year old Chris Coghlan just had his best season of his career. He’s only surpassed 500 plate appearances twice in his seven-year career, and as a guy without a standout tool and some established platoon issues, he obviously owns a substantial ‘bust rate.’ As in, he could be unusable next year, even though he was worth $6 in mixed leagues this past season.

And so, even though we liked some boring veterans at third base, it’s time to take inspiration in another direction — where’s the line, when you should bypass the veteran for the unproven prospect? Is it right around a guy like Chris Coghlan?

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It’s the day after Thanksgiving, and we’re all still digesting yesterday’s dinner. You may be wondering why you went back for that third helping of pie. In retrospect, two was enough, wasn’t it.

Let’s keep things light and easy to digest today by celebrating our most hilarious negotiations of the year. I’ll get things started with a scenario from yesterday. The rest of you should share in the comments.

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When the 2013 season ended, Jay Bruce was 26 and coming off of three straight 30-homer seasons. Sure, he struck out a bit much, and had some issues defensively, but he was a young man in his prime, a bankable asset, an easy way to inject power into your lineup. Since then, he’s slashed .222/.288/.406 with 22 homers per 600 plate appearances over two seasons.

What happened?

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Welcome to the annual series: ‘A Minor (League) Review of 2015.” This series is a great way to receive a quick recap of the ’15 minor league season for your favorite club(s), while also receiving a brief look toward the 2016 season and beyond. It can also be a handy feature for fantasy baseball players in keeper and Dynasty leagues.

The Graduate: Austin Hedges, C: This young catcher parlayed defensive acumen into a second round selection in the 2011 draft. His defence continued to be ahead of his offence while ascending through the minors and it completely took a backseat during his MLB debut in 2015. With offensive-minded Derek Norris also on hand in San Diego, Hedges will likely be relegated to a back-up role — or more time in Triple-A to try and find at least a little more authority in his swing.

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Carlos Correa won the Rookie of the Year vote, and Carlos Correa is guy that most fantasy owners prefer, too. And mostly that’s because we’ll take Correa’s bat over the one Francisco Lindor was supposed to show. When it comes to the bat Lindor actually showed in his debut, though, things get closer. Just a little bit of power separates the two.

And that’s the problem with evaluating Lindor for next season. Power can be so fickle, and we all remember the Kevin Maases of the past. Past research doesn’t even agree on a proper sample for power numbers. We’re left grasping at straws when a young player comes up and is more powerful than they were supposed to be.

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Take away the guys with shortstop eligibility, or second base eligibility. Take away the hurt third basemen that should have been stars if they were on the field more often. Take away the backups that accumulated enough time to be relevant. Take away the stars that played like stars. Take away the rookies that just came up and didn’t get full seasons.

Who’s left? By definition, they’re not stars. But they are starting veteran third basemen that stayed healthy and put enough numbers to be relevant. Could you define the under-rated player any better? Who else is less exciting to draft than that guy that’s going to hit for a middling average, with middling power, a few steals, possibly at the bottom of the order?

And, yet, Trevor Plouffe and Brett Lawrie were both above replacement level third basemen this year. Considering that many of the players above them had other eligibilities, they may have been good enough to start at third in many leagues.

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Entering the 2015 season, Kolten Wong was basking in the glow of a strong playoff series where he hit 3 HR’s. His Regular Season numbers in his Rookie season spoke to the inconsistencies of most young batters, but his output as a 24-year-old hitter with a good glove, and in a strong lineup, certainly commanded attention. Wong demonstrated a quick bat as a Rookie and it was not a leap of faith to expect that with experience his numbers would get even better in his Sophomore Season.

Three respected Projection Systems saw Wong producing these numbers in 2015….

In the run up to the All-Star break, Wong put together a very strong .280/.343/.434 line with a .777 OPS and a .337 wOBA. In 353 PAs, he hit 9 HRs, 18 doubles, 2 triples, had 44 runs, 37 RBIs, and 10 steals. His .310 BABIP was unremarkable and he sported a .154 ISO. With this kind of start, that incidentally should have earned him stronger consideration as an All-Star, he was well ahead of the projections. Wong seemed poised to deliver on the promise that we all hoped to see and even a good bit more.

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There is just over a week left in ottoneu arbitration (11/14 deadline!) and rather than rehash what Brad Johnson and I have stated in the past, I thought I’d look at arbitration from the point of view of the allocation target.

I’ve gone ad nauseum about what I try to do when I make my allocations, but it can be valuable to relfect on my reactions to what my teams are getting hit with. If something causes me angst, it’s probably a good way to go after my opposition, too.
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Check out the first baseman end of season rankings. Brandon Belt hit .280 with 18 homers and nine stolen bases. He was the 15th first baseman, worth almost ten dollars. Freddie Freeman hit .276 with 18 homers and three stolen bases. He was the 21st-best first baseman, worth under five bucks. Huh.

You know why they ended up on different ends of the spectrum, of course. Partially because Freeman was hurt a bunch this year, and partially because the Braves offense was Lilliputian, the Braves’ first baseman had 128 runs plus RBI, while Belt had 141. It may not be fair that Belt was worth twice as much as Freeman because the Braves offense was no good, but it happens.

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