Yesterday I kicked off this party with Part I which covers my methodology and includes a table of all the folks we’re talking about.
It also looks at nine young guys – rookies and near rookies – who broke out. Today we take a look at some less-young guys.
After the season, one of the things I like to look at is what players who had big second halves to get a sense of who might be interesting off-season trade targets or auction targets – basically, players whose value might be muted by their overall value/scores, but whose second half suggests big things to come.
This year, I decided to formalize this search. In the past, I’ve just used anecdotal evidence and then looked deeper. Instead, I took a look at every player with 100+ first half PA and 100+ second half PA, comparing their first half points per game to their second half, and today I’ll share the results with you.
Injury is perhaps the greatest vehicle of luck in sports. The haphazard bounce of the ball, twinge of the tendon, strain of the muscle — these things not only rob the player of playing time, but they also keep them from performing at 100%. And though we’ve had some success predicting injury, mostly on the basis of past injury, we haven’t come that far. Even the most basic advice with respect to injury wouldn’t have helped us avoid this trio of injured backstops, anyway.
I’ve already gloated about my ottoneu success, bemoaned my DFS performance, and wistfully analyzed my nearly 7-for-10 Bold Prediction performance. Today I’ll run through my performance in eight other leagues.
I’ll be up front – it wasn’t my best season. Even in March, I knew I was biting off more than I could chew. In my sophomore year of high school, I doubled up in Geometry and Algebra 2. Every time I caught up in one subject, I fell behind in the other. That’s how my 2015 season felt. Whenever I put in the time to grind some advantage in one league, I let another fall into the weeds. By the end of the year, I was down to actively managing two teams. Let’s discuss those successes first.
This is one of those fun awards where there is debate about what the award means. Roto and Hitter are clear, but what constitutes a comeback? Does the winner have to come back from injury or ineffectiveness or both? How good does he have to be to have “comeback?”
Well, since I get the only vote, I also define the parameters. I prefer unexpected comebacks, so I give more credit to coming back from ineffectiveness than injury. I think you need to make a BIG return to win this award – going from top 20 bat, to borderline useful player, to top 20 bat is more impressive than going from top 75 bat, to top 200 bat, to top 75 bat. With that in mind, my pick: Chris Davis.
Back in April, the RotoGraphs staff made some picks for the season. Vague, I know, but I assume you understand what kind of picks I’m talking about.
And because I like competitions, I’m going to turn this into one. As the moderator of these picks, I’m judging it by my own silly subjectivity.
The rules are simple:
That’s it! Now let’s do this!!!
It’s best of and worst of week at RotoGraphs. I’m here with 2015’s worst starting pitchers.
There’s a lot of ways to approach this. A lot of pitchers’ values are conditional upon their circumstances, so I’ve tried to keep this in mind when creating this list. When it comes down to it, though, this is all just one man’s opinion.
Fantasy Pros calculated the aggregate average draft position (ADP) using several premier fantasy baseball websites, so that’s the value upon which I’ve based my decisions.
But first, let us acknowledge 2015’s All-Injury Sigh Young Squad:
To separate the deep league fantasy Cy Young from the regular fantasy one, and also from the real-life Cy Young, we’ll need to define the award. Fantasy Baseball is maybe all about value, and value is at least 50/50 cost, so we have to factor in cost to hand out this hardware.
And, in fact, for the deep league version, cost is even more important. Because the cost for a deep league draftee vs a mixed league draftee has to be much lower. Even if the output is lower, the Deep League Cy Young should not have been drafted in mixed leagues, optimally.
So even if Dallas Keuchel was ranked 257th overall going into the season and ended up ninth overall, making him a great contender if not the lock for the overall Roto Cy Young, Dallas Keuchel was a decently expensive deep league starter. We’re looking for that $1 wonder that led your AL-only staff to victory. We’re looking for 2014 Dallas Keuchel, not 2015’s version.
The 2015 season humbled me. In 2014, I reached the playoffs in all four of my leagues and won two of them. I cleaned up at each draft and I cleaned up on the waiver wire. I felt unstoppable. I felt like I had it all figured out.
Then 2015 happened. I botched my first (and most important) draft (“LOWV,” henceforth). Then I botched then next one. Then I botched the two snake drafts, as I always do. I botched the Birchwood Brothers‘ Birchwood Derby midseason draft as well. Botched. Botchy botch botched.
Right. So I learned some things. You’re never too old, nor too wise, to learn. Conveniently, I’m neither old nor wise, so I still have plenty of learning to do. And when Major League Baseball turns in a season as unpredictable as this one, well, everyone learns a thing or two.
This year, I went bolder. I went more precise. I tied success to specific numbers.
I’m guessing that will tank my completion percentage, which has hovered around 33-40%. Let’s check the tape. I’m nervous.
