Hilarious Negotiations
It’s the day after Thanksgiving, and we’re all still digesting yesterday’s dinner. You may be wondering why you went back for that third helping of pie. In retrospect, two was enough, wasn’t it.
Let’s keep things light and easy to digest today by celebrating our most hilarious negotiations of the year. I’ll get things started with a scenario from yesterday. The rest of you should share in the comments.
You may recall me mentioning that Chad Young and I co-manage a team in a true dynasty league. It’s 20 teams, 45 players per team, and we can keep 28 each year at no cost. We play on CBS so there is no player universe constraint.
To give you an idea of the depth, we started considering 16-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for our roster last February, and we eventually picked him off the wire mid-season. We’re probably going to make him our 28th keeper even though the most optimistic timeline puts him three years from the majors. Hell, he’s yet to play a single professional game – he was too young to qualify!
These dynasty formats value age like gold. When a player starts flirting with 30, he’s suddenly only coveted by very win-now oriented rosters. Chad and I have one such win-now team. So when a rival put Melky Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Anibal Sanchez on his trade block, we had to ask about them. Here’s the order of events with (one of) the names removed to protect the innocent.
Me to rival:
We have some interest in Melky, HanRam, and Anibal.
Not sure exactly what you’re looking for so give us some idea of your asking price. We view all 3 as complementary parts.
The only players of interest on your team would be Kyle Seager and JD Martinez
Well clearly neither Melky, HanRam, nor Anibal warrants a player like Seager or JDM, so I guess we have no common ground. Enjoy the holiday.
I would love to see a ranking that shows JD Martinez higher than Hanley Ramirez
Mind blown. Mine that is. And Chad’s. I forwarded this to Chad around 3:00 in the afternoon. He tore himself away from family to scoff at 3:30. Then he scoffed again at midnight. The owners in this league are very smart and competitive. We all tend to pinch pennies, but this comment belongs in 2013.
Somehow I managed to suppress my first five reactionary emails to this owner. I eventually settled for a simple “wow” in response. Every evaluation method ranks Martinez above Ramirez. All of them. Not sort of above him, waaaaaaay above him. I don’t think I used enough “a’s” in that “way.”
Is it possible that Ramirez outperforms Martinez? Sure. JDM could fracture his knee in the spring and miss the season. Ramirez could simply have an unexpected renaissance season, hitting 30 home runs and stealing 20 bases. It could happen. It probably won’t. Statistically, the probability of it happening is very small – like winning a hand of hold ’em at a full table with 7-3 off suit (without bluffing).
And we’re not just talking about 2016. Martinez is barely 28. He’s a star source of power. Ramirez is nearly 32 and showing his age. He hasn’t had a full season since 2012. Incidentally, he posted a 106 wRC+ at the time. He had an 89 wRC+ last season. He performed well in limited action during the intervening years.
Martinez, meanwhile, had a 137 wRC+ last year with one of the best hard hit rates in the sport. If you’re crazy enough to like HanRam more next year, would you rather have him for the next five seasons too?
I pulled this example from an industry league. I have to imagine some of you play with a few loony folks. What jaw-dropping comments did Janice from accounting make during the season? Did Joe Plumber quote Robinson Cano in return for his Chase Utley? Share the wealth folks.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
I don’t like Hanley at all, but Steamer projects he and Martinez as almost equal on offense next year.
Martinez: .273/.330/.486 27 HRs and 4 SB
Ramirez: .284/.345/.475 19 HRs and 8 SB
I play in a replay league, so I don’t know how the points shake out exactly, but that can’t be way off in value. And if the other owner mistakenly thinks Ramirez still SS or 3B eligibility (he got one game there last year), I could see Hanley being more valuable. Not by much, but maybe.
Now, I see no way Ramirez meets that projection. And Martinez probably blows past his projection.
Martinez is a guy that I still don’t understand how he went from a terrible Astro at age 26 to an awesome Tiger at age 27, but so be it. I thought the K/BB problems were permanent.
So I like Martinez less than most, and he’s definitely better than Ramirez.
But if the other owner only uses Steamer and has some mistaken assumptions about eligibilty, it’s not so ridiculous.
He changed his swing during the winter before the Astros released him. Usually that doesn’t do anything. Sometimes it produces a Bautista or Martinez.
Just curious — does this other owner read your material?
No, but he does feel his material.
WHO GOES AROUND FEELING A PERSON’S MATERIAL? WHAT’S TO BE GAINED FROM FEELING A PERSON’S MATERIAL?!
Estelle-you’d be surprised.
“We view all 3 as complimentary parts.” That’s classic…running down the other guy’s players as part of negotiations.
No idea. I’m pretty sure nobody in the league reads what I write. Including my nominal editor Eno 🙂
It was a small consideration before I wrote the topic. Ultimately, I decided that even if I alienate this particular owner, our valuations are so astoundingly different that we’ll never combine on a trade. Based on his comments, his love for Hanley’s past doesn’t extend to similarish guys on our roster like Carlos Santana, Kendrys Morales, Ben Zobrist, or Jayson Werth. Or presently excellent players like Charlie Blackmon.
Now…I’m waiting on hilarious stories.
Hey.
Ha!
me too
Oh no, you are wrong about that Mr. Johnson. 🙂
I’m not normally one to participate in things like this, b/c way too often something that looks crazy ends up being not nearly as crazy as you thought.
But I’ll post this offer with the caveat that it was so far from what I was trying to do (add a reasonably competent bat without giving up too much for the future in a keeper league) that I just kind of flailed wildly when I received the offer.
It’s a points league, and we keep 5, although those 5 take our top 5 draft slots, so it’s mostly keep your best players instead of keeping your lowest drafted best players. Anyway, enough plot exposition:
I was offered: Starling Marte, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Dellin Betances, his 6, 7, 8, 10 round picks next year.
All I had to give up was Goldschmidt, Bautista, Braun.
In a more typical keeper league, that’s merely a sketchy offer. In your particular format, it’s pretty egregious. Basically Marte and some upper-mid-round picks for two studs and maybe another (Like many, I’m a little leery of Braun).
Yeah looking back at it now, it wasn’t as bad as I thought, it was just so far from what I was trying to do.
I guess if I’m going to post other people’s offers I should post my own as well:
I offered someone Moustakas and Semien for Arenado and Brantley early in the year.
I’m not even sure why I thought someone would be interested in that.
I’m in a 12 team, NL-only, keeper league with an auction draft. We are allowed to trade part of our draft budgets for the following year to improve our teams for the current season.
I was in 1st place and looking to solidify my pitching in June. I contacted the manager in last about Madison Bumgarner, who was out of keeper options and would’ve only served as a three month rental. That owner asked for Goldscmidt (who at that point in the season was ranked No. 1 overall) and draft money in return……
Luckily, I waited until the trade deadline in August and was able to snag MadBum for $12 and Chase Anderson, which in our league was a very fair deal.
This sounds like you were willing to write off his season before he was willing to. THis happens all the time, you just have to be decent about not telling their team sucks and they need to rebuild.
I was more so putting feelers out to see what was available. Just a typical conversation starter that happens from time to time between each of our league’s managers. At least that’s how I tried to phrase it. Definitely would’ve offered him something of fair value in return, but the Goldy + $ asking price just kind of threw me for a loop.
In 2012 I lost my starting catcher (low level in a shallow league) to injury. To help me out I was offered Alex Avila for Ryan Braun. I said that was insane and was told take it or leave it. I left it!
this was around end of July, my team wasn’t doing so well and he needed pitching desperately.
my offer: my Cutch, Ventura, Boxberger FOR his Bryant, C. Seager, J. Quintana.
rejected!
Counter offer:
my Cutch, Jose Fernandez, Kyle Seager for his Bryant, Quintana, C. Seager.
Kind of ended the “negotiations” after that. He compared Bryant to Mike Trout so I would need JoFer to offset the loss of picking up Andrew McCutchen. Hard to do business with evaluations like that.
The second offer isn’t that bad if it is a keeper league.
I thought it passed the smell test too (assuming keeper). I would have countered for a better SP than Quintana, but it’s pretty close.
I’m guessing this was a re-draft offer.
I hate ridiculous offers and avoid the owners who make them, but the reality is that it’s often a successful strategy. All too often the people who do that will find an owner desperate or dumb enough to accept the ridiculous proposal (repeatedly in one of my leagues), and even when they don’t, it pulls the negotiation toward their side. I typically get angry and cut off communication, but the more healthy reaction is probably to respond with an equally ridiculous offer of your own to put things back on even ground.
I always look at unprompted offers as a feeling out process. Take Hanley Ramirez. There is a justifiably wide range of valuations for him. If I’m selling a Hanley, my first offer isn’t going to be for Derek Dietrich even though that’s probably more than fair (still referring to our dynasty league). First I will ask about a Seager or JDM. Unlike my above referenced rival, I’d suggest Hanley+ for one of those player.
It’s all about framing. When the Cardinals outbid themselves for Matt Holliday, it was in part because they talked Boras down from an even higher ask. The same principle can apply in fantasy negotiations.
Unfortunately, everybody takes this approach in our league (see Monday’s topic). It makes it hard to trade.
I don’t think cutting off negotiations in a fit of pique or offering a comparably ridiculous offer are particularly useful. Or ignoring a ridiculous offer for that matter.
I try not to take things personally, and I don’t fault people for trying to get the best return they can.
It usually only takes a couple of offers/counteroffers to see if there’s a deal to be made or not.
I do, and I fault the people who are dumb enough to accept ridiculous offers because both make the league experience worse. It’s one thing when people genuinely have wildly different values on a particular play and another thing altogether when one party is intentionally proposing something ridiculous.
The guy who wound up winning our keeper league had the first veto’d trade of our league’s history this year. He tried to trade:
Mookie Betts
Addison Russell
Adam Wainwright
First round pick*
For:
Manny Machado
Justin Upton
Mike Trout
17th round pick*
*We are an auction league so the draft picks are literally worthless. (Yahoo defaults draft pick trading to ‘On’ in dynasty leagues). No so much ‘hilarious’ as ‘incredibly predatory’ but in a friendly league with no stakes / pot winnings, this struck me as a bit amusing.
In high school, I once traded a can of pringles and Toby Hall for a better catcher. I think it was AJ Pierzynski. At least the pringles were a real good as opposed to a fake 1st pick.
I got a fun one in Strat-O-Matic recently. I was offered Brett Lawrie, Jean Segura, Chris Johnson and Chase Utley for Caleb Joseph and Adrian Beltre. When I declined he offered me Victor Martinez for Beltre straight up.
Brett Lawrie? Better snap him up, that dude is SOLID.
This one Dude in my league offers me nothing but garbage trades all the time. He makes the offer and then tries to talk me into it by telling me how bad the player is that he is trying to acquire from me.
For example, in a keeper salary cap league, he sent me this offer in mid April:
His $40 Cano & $7 Cashner for my $4 Betts, $4 Bryant & $7 Betances.
The reasoning was basically all my guys were over rated and Cano & Cashner were under performing, but were just about to turn the corner.
I politely declined numerous variations of this trade request.
Oh, that guy is in my league too.
Mine too! He constantly offered me guys he just got off the wire for my cheap studs. Like, multiple offers a day (Cody Anderson for my $1 JDMart was a favorite of his, Mike Montgomery for my $6 Brantley was another), and he’d ignore my requests to stop.
Eventually, after I’d essentially been eliminated from contention, I claimed Juan Pierre from waivers, and countered every offer of his with Pierre for one or more of his stars.
Took about a week before he stopped sending me trades.
I am everywhere.
My completed trades (dynasty):
Sent Lance Lynn for Kole Calhoun (bad in 2015, works for 2016)
Sent 3rd rd. draft pick for Gregory Polanco
Sent Wade Davis & 2nd rd draft pick (I think picks are worthless) for Syndegaard & 4th rd. draft pick.
Last offseason I was offered Felix with his real life salary(120m cap dynasty) for trout with two seasons at league minimum(0.5m) and the option to extend two more seasons for 3m and 5m respectively. The owners reasoning was that Felix was under control for longer.
This might be my favorite
In a 20 team dynasty league with 30 man maor league roster, 20 man minor league, where you keep whoever you have under contract ($160 cap), resign for 1.5 times the price. I’m in last place so I put Ben Revere (2 years 6.75) and say I’m looking for a mid level prospect that might help in the future. An owner emails me saying “Ian Kennedy (1 year 6.75) straight up or no deal”. If I’m in last place what am I gonna do with one year of Ian Kennedy?
Although, sometimes those offers work… I turned a $10 AJ Ramos (all free agent pickups after the auction are at $10), who I picked up early, as soon as he became a closer, for a RML Tyler Glasnow. Kept saying he needed a closer. I just kept making that offer, and eventually he accepted. I don’t feel bad at all.
Why would you? It’s entirely possible that you got the worse end of that deal.
I think it’s the approach for which he shows no remorse. swung at everything and got on with a bloop single after a 1-2 count in a 11 pitch AB
The other owner sounds like a Trump supporter.
Janice in accounting doesn’t give a fu%@. Everyone knows that.
That’s nothing someone in my league told me:
“” thanks to Familia sucking in the playoffs Montero is almost a lock at closer”
You have to give something to get something. That concept is lost on many a fantasy owner. But take heart – I’d almost kill for another established, stable and serious dynasty league. They are hard to find!
i’m in a good one. and we need new owners! 20 team dynasty
go to kavick.proboards.com
and put a post in the “waiting list” section
Yeah they are, but not as hard to find as a serious owner that knows how to compete once the clowns that make these offers run their teams into the ground and bail.
Ok, heres one for the room: I was interested in Rasiel Iglesias and sent feeler offers for one of Tolleson, Realmuto, or a prospect like Kepler straight up. All positions of need for this owner who has a strong pitching staff and garbage everywhere else. 15 team h2h 15 cat w large minor league rosters. The counter? I like Hosmer, Machado, Betts or Harvey from your team. My response was, um ok, who else you gonna add? The reply, no one, Rasiel is the next Kershaw. lol
After reading this article, I thought about posting a story of my own, but then I realized: no one else ever thinks your fantasy baseball stories are interesting, even other fantasy owners.
Case in point: this article. It sounds like you were just bothering someone during the offseason who hasn’t thought about fantasy baseball for a couple months.
He either made a ridiculous offer to get you to go away or told you what he wanted in the hopes you’d look deeper on his roster and put together a package for him because he isnt ready for research and trading.
What did I learn from this article? Not much.
Be happy you got anything. We all had off today.
If he didn’t want to be contacted about those players, he probably wouldn’t have put them on his trade block 15 minutes before I contacted him.
Wow!
Oh hai!
The original reply from rival was the following:
“Brad,
The only players of interest on your team would be Seager and JD Martinez
Happy Thanksgiving”
*Author edited out the Happy Thanksgiving
Monty
Cheers
Back in my OOTP days 10 years ago I remember a Monty signing off with Cheers.
Someone in one of my friends leagues apparently offered Wade Davis for Mike Trout in a keeper league.
Had an owner in one keeper ESPN league that I started having to screenshot every offer he made me because no one would believe me any more.
Among his offers:
Torii Hunter and Fernando Rodney for my Adam Jones
Again… KEEPER league…
When that didn’t work it was:
Mike Napoli and Jimmy Rollins for my Adam Jones and Trevor Rosenthal
(clearly a much better offer than the first one…)
I got about fifteen offers total from him during the season. I replied to every one of them politely just because I didn’t want the entertainment to dry up.
Has anyone ever actually traded Trout? If so, what did you get?
I’ve traded for Trout in 2014:
I received:
Mike Trout
Hanley Ramirez (still had SS eligibility)
Jason Hammel
I traded:
Andrew McCutchen
Xander Bogaerts
Andrew Cashner
Ervin Santana
12 team keeper, 30 man rosters
I traded for Trout in 2014 as well. It’s a 3 man keeper where one keeper can be kept indefinitely and the other rise a round each year.
I traded:
Jason Heyward
Arismendy Alcantara (mostly a throw in, could be kept for nothing)
1st round pick
2nd round pick
4th round pick (all for the next year)
I received:
Mike Trout
Josh Rutledge (I needed a SS desperately, I eventually traded for Reyes since I was going all in)
10th round pick
17th round pick
19th round pick
I would make that trade again in a heartbeat.
I don’t think we, and the person who asked, care about times you arguable ripped off someone for Trout. He wants to know when you, someone who posts on fangraphs, dealt away Trout and felt like they got a good deal.
last year (2015) i traded trout & a 5th rd pick for thor, sano, and a 1st rd pick (trout was ineligible for keepers but both thor & sano were keeper eligible). dude won the league and we do reverse order of finish for the draft (so my #1 pick will be turned back into a trout next year).
In a roto redraft with OBP/SLG/HR/R/SB and QS/ERA/WHIP/K/SV+H, I actually completed this trade:
I give:
Russell Martin
Andrew Miller
Jason Hammel
I get:
Clayton Kershaw
Lance Lynn
Carlos Santana
Some of the people in our league were so upset, they decided to protest, so the deal fell through. But the guy getting Andrew Miller was so convinced it was a good deal, he agreed to it 8 or 9 times, and it finally cleared on May 16th…which was also my wedding day.
Worst offer I got in my roto redraft league was Avisail Garcia straight up for Chris Sale
Similarly, a guy in my redraft league grabbed Joey Gallo off waivers and the next day offered Gallo for my Sale. Uh, no.
Brutal.
it’s funny – early in this year, I picked up Raisel Iglesias off the waiver wire, who I liked (NL Only 5×5 league) – I saw him as much like a minor leaguer, but cheaper. Unfortunately, I couldn’t keep him so offered him around – one trade offer I made was for John Axford, who was, at the time, pitching well as the Rockies closer. The other owner’s reaction was that it was the biggest lowball in the history of the league. My reasoning had been that Axford wasn’t going to finish the year as the closer, which turned out to be technically untrue and since he was rebuilding, Iglesias was a good pickup.
I feel somewhat relieved that i was justified, but since I releasd Iglesias and wasn’t able to pick him up later, my relief is underwhelming 😉
sometimes people posting “hilariously bad trade offer” that is actually totally fair can be just as entertaining as the bad trade offers themselves
almost everybody overvalues their own players
time after time i offer a trade that i think is totally fair and helps both sides, get laughed at and rejected, then look back 2 months later and they really should have taken the deal
help me… help you
JULES
Check out the big brain on Brad
Martinez: .273/.330/.486 27 HRs and 4 SB
Ramirez: .284/.345/.475 19 HRs and 8 SB
Assuming you’re suggesting they’re comparable for next season (which I did allow was remotely possible), I have some required reading for you.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/projection-system-life-hacks/
I would hazard that Steamer is not properly accounting for JDM’s mechanics induced breakout in 2014. Nor is Hanley’s injury induced decline fully internalized.
We have roughly 1000 PA with which to judge JDM. Honestly, I’m inclined to throw out everything with regard to Hanley. I now know he’s sometimes good for 300 PA at a time or sometimes bad for 500 PA at a time going back 4 seasons.
i don’t know as you can count on the long-short pattern, or that hanley’s situation is a straight “decline”. he’s certainly somewhat of an injury risk, but he’s still only 32. he hit 10 homers in april last year and then was awful for the rest of the year because he was so bad at playing the outfield that he ran into the wall, bent his shoulder and was never healthy again. that’s an explanation for what happened, same as JD changing his style.
sure hanley might get hurt again, but he might just as easily stay healthy (easier defensive work should help). meanwhile everyone’s talking about him like he just forgot how to hit last year and is done, which seems like a pretty dubious interpretation of events to me.
Hey Brad,
Maybe you should read this-
http://www.faketeams.com/2015/11/30/9810658/the-keeper-corner-24-11
Hanley #28
JD- #87
Best,
Monty
I just skimmed a few of his picks. He’s all over the crazy sauce.
I was offered Marcus Semien for Freddie Freeman. Semien was dropped two days later.
Old school: I once recall an offer of a rookie Rick Ankiel for Vladimir Guerrero, straight up
Ankiel’s rookie season was really impressive (nearly 10 k/9, but roughly the same poor bb/9 as early kersaw).
Favorable to Kershaw’s rookie season, but keep in mind that Ankiel’s rookie season was during a time with really strong offensive numbers and Kershaw’s when offenses weren’t scoring as much.
Worth Vlad? Doubt it – looks like he was nearly 40/40 2001 and 2002.
You’re right, its still a lopsided offer.
As this article was posted I was offered the following “take it or leave it” offer for my Mike Trout (by a guy $150 over the cap while I’m well under): Jacoby Ellsbury $35, James Shields $28, Brett Lawrie $12, Tyler Clippard $9, Jose Iglesius $7 and Preston Tucker $4. Of all of those players, he’ll probably keep Tucker and Jose and drop the rest. Does the poo-poo platter trade offer ever work?
I love the “take it or leave it” tag. I love it even more when I’m online so I can respond with “Leave it” within 15 seconds of the offer being made.
In this guy’s defense – if someone sent me an e-mail looking for a deal and added “we view these guys as complementary” I would immediately be looking for ways to troll you too.
I’ve been flat out told by multiple other owners in the league that they wouldn’t trade for JDM or Blackmon because they were “old.” If I’m going to ask about those 3 declining players, you better bet I view them as complementary pieces. I bet two of the three will be cut by 2018. Remember, it’s a dynasty with a flat 28 keepers rule.
“The article and author are Farcical”
Monty takes the high road.
Cheers
Monty
I dont know if its a “hilariously” bad offer, especially considering its November. Hanley owner has plenty of time to lower asking price if no one values him as much. Honestly, bad offer or not, Id just be happy to have someone actively engaged in trade talks/fantasy baseball in November.
Here’s one, let me know if it’s as bad as I think. Traditional 5×5 Ottoneu league, I was offered his $35 Carlos Gomez and $31 Cole Hamels for my $11 Carlos Carrasco.
My keeper league saw Trout’s owner post several times each year (at least 5 times total) definitively declare that Trout WILL BE TRADED by the deadline. Of course, it came with ridiculous asking prices. Which is fine, because it’s a keeper league, and Trout was by far the most attractive asset. But this year, when Trout was out of keeper options and the owner was out of the playoffs race, the owner finally got his asking price… and then didn’t take it. He was so intent on getting the biggest haul ever for Trout, that even when the deadline was minutes away, he refused to budge.
The manager that began with Trout, Harper and Miggy somehow managed to miss the playoffs 3 out of 4 years, and didn’t trade any of them for future parts. It’s one of the most incredible examples of incompetence I’ve ever witnessed. I look forward to collecting his dues next year.
When there’s an idiot in your league with wildly inconsistent player valuations it’s always better to be the guy that befriends him. Because when he’s exhausted every other owner in the league and is desperate to trade, he’s going to come to you. And maybe he sends you a hilariously bad trade in your favour.
Well at least this is my experience.
“In this guy’s defense – if someone sent me an e-mail looking for a deal and added “we view these guys as complementary” I would immediately be looking for ways to troll you too.”
Cheers
I got Trout for Stanton and Wacha, in a 5 keeper league 17 teams.
I also got Closer D.Robertson for Ender Inciarte,, the other guy had another 3 top closers like Miller, Chapman and Storen. The rest of the league yelled out that it was a robbery. At the end it was a win win trade, Inciarte became a very solid OF with few strikeouts and some stolen bases, hard to find in a 17 team league.
How about when the Braves put Shelby Miller on the trading block and pontificate about their enjoyment of Corey Seager and Joc Pederson?