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Just straight hitting the ball hard has its value, but there is an ideal angle. Hit the ball a million miles per hour into the ground, and you’re Giancarlo Stanton, grounding out to second base on the hardest hit ball so far in the Statcast era. You gotta hit it square.

People smarter than I am have determined that the ideal launch angle is between ten and thirty degrees. That combines the line drive angle (10-25 degrees) and home run angle (25-30), but in fantasy baseball, we’ll take a line drive or a home run, either’s fine.

So if we want to know who’s hitting the ball harder this year, it’s probably best to ask who’s hitting the ball harder in the right angles for success? That will tell us a little about some hot starts that are more believable because of what’s going on under the hood.

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• Felix Hernandez got some bad news. He will not be back for four to six weeks.

The team initially hoped that Hernandez, who is 4-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 10 starts, would miss only two starts after being placed on the disabled list June 1. But Hernandez told ESPN’s Marly Rivera on Saturday that while the second MRI showed improvement, the Mariners’ medical director, Dr. Edward Khalfayan, wants him to rest the calf for four to six weeks.

“I have already been [on] the DL about 12 days, so those days are included [in the 4-6 weeks],” Hernandez said, adding that he expects to be throwing again before the team returns from its next road trip on June 24.

This update sucks for Hernandez owners.

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Yesterday I had mentioned that the Rockies had not announced a closer. Well, that was wrong as Weiss named Carlos Estevez as their closer while McGee is out. This came after Estevez recorded his first save and Weiss had said earlier that Estevez would be sharing duties with Jason Motte. Must have been nice for Estevez owners to hear their guy would get most of the saves, right? That was until Boone Logan got the one out save today, after Motte started the 9th off retiring the first two batters. He then walked his third hitter, and then Weiss called on Logan to get the last out as he earned his first save of the season. This wasn’t a case of Weiss going against his word. Instead, Estevez was due some rest after throwing 28 pitches on Friday and closing out last night’s game despite Weiss saying he wanted to avoid that. This was just a normal day of rest for Estevez, and he should be getting the rest of the save opportunities. I left it at Yellow because it is a Colorado pitcher and I don’t think the Rockies will hesitate to pull him if he began to struggle in the 9th.
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This year’s MLB Amateur Draft started last night. With draft hype in the air, now’s a great time to highlight how great last year’s number-two pick has been. Also, saves are always of need in fantasy leagues, and a temporary committee closer is widely available and worth some attention from saves-starved gamers. Read the rest of this entry »

Two months in, and you’ve got a millstone, the high draft pick that’s too good to drop, probably, and too bad to shop. Nobody wants them, and they’re starting to look bad in comparison to the options on the wire.

So let’s look at a trio of outfielders first — with their preseasons projections next to their projected end of season line — and then a couple of waiver options that might be better. We’ll see if there is actually a reason to cut bait on a guy we all thought would be studs going into the season.

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In this week’s edition of Deep League Waiver Wire, we take a look at a reliever and a catcher unclaimed in a vast majority of leagues yet worth a closer look.

Michael Feliz (7% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 11% CBS) – 2016 hasn’t been a good season for fantasy owners who prefer to accumulate saves through the waiver wire. That there have been relatively few closer controversies during the first two months has forced the save-starved to speculate on relievers two or three promotions from the ninth. And Michael Feliz is no exception*.

The Closer Grid on Rotograph’s Bullpen Report has featured the same three Houston relievers for quite some time now: Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, and Ken Giles. But a reliever outside of those three leads the bullpen in K%-BB%, xFIP, and in limiting hard contact. And with 25.2 IP under his belt, he’s been there nearly the whole time, quietly dominating as the rest of the pen accumulated 9 blown saves. As you might have guessed, that reliever is THIS INANIMATE CARBON ROD! Just kidding, it’s Michael Feliz.

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Today’s Prospect Stock Watch takes a tour around the American League East as we catch up with a trio of slugging prospects on pace to arrive in The Show in late 2016 or 2017.

By the way — if you’re a huge fan of prospects including Top 30 lists, amateur draft coverage and/or the international free agent market then MLB.com has awesome (free) coverage from Jim Callis, Jonathan Mayo and others here.

Trey Mancini | 1B | Orioles
ETA: 2016
Value: Quietly Rising

It absolutely sucks being a first base prospect in the Orioles system. Look at poor Mancini, whom you’ve probably never heard of. Baltimore spent the offseason re-upping incumbent first baseman Chris Davis to a seven-year deal for more than $160 million. Another prospect, Christian Walker, currently at triple-A, has been ready for The Show for about a year now — although he might be suffering through a little triple-A staleness right now. And that brings us to Mancini, who hasn’t stopped slugging this year while playing at both the double-A and triple-A levels. Combined, he’s produced a .914 OPS with 13 home runs in 57 games. The 2013 eighth-round pick out of Notre Dame has also shown the ability to hit for a high average through the minors, although he sells out a little bit to produce the plus power and the slow feet will also hinder his hopes of hitting .300 in The Show. The Orioles may actually be better off by cutting bait on big league DH Pedro Alvarez and instilling Mancini in the starting (or platoon) role.

Aaron Judge | OF | Yankees
ETA: 2017
Value: Down

Judge hasn’t exactly enjoyed his time in triple-A during the 2016 season. The 6-7, 275 pound monster-of-a-man is hitting just .233 with a .690 OPS through 53 games. In fact, his line very closely mirrors his production from triple-A in 2015 (.317 vs .315 wOBA). Triple-A hurlers have been able to take advantage of Judge’s long levers and developing pitch recognition, which has resulted in a strikeout rate of more than 25%. Still, he’s been far from hopeless, and is only 24. I personally targeted Judge in my own Fangraphs Ottoneu (dynasty) league and was able to acquire him while his value was down. The former first round pick out of Fresno State will be fun to watch in a few years as he slugs home runs out of some rather favorable hitter’s parks in the AL East.

Rowdy Tellez | 1B | Blue Jays
ETA: 2017
Value: Steady (but maybe about to break out)

The Blue Jays have done a nice job managing Tellez’s development so far. A former 30th round pick (2013), his value was actually much greater than his draft slot but a high bonus demand — and limited athleticism — caused him to slide. The Jays were able to sway him away from college with a well-above-average bonus and he’s been making them look good for it ever since. Just 21, the young slugger opened 2016 in double-A after two strong offensive seasons in Rookie/A-ball. After hitting just .164 this April, Tellez now has his triple-slash line up to .251/.366/.481 — with only nine more strikeouts than walks — as one of the younger hitters in the league. He’s never going to be a star athlete and he has one of those builds that tends to age quickly so it’s smart of the Jays to push his development along so they can enjoy his contributions during his peak seasons. Tellez could eventually possess a plus hit tool to go along with plus power. With both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion potentially leaving as free agents at year’s end, this prospect’s arrival could coincide nicely.

This isn’t necessarily a free agent/waiver piece, though, these three players are under owned and available in many leagues. If this trio of players isn’t available in your league, don’t fret. I’ve chosen to highlight them because I believe their rest-of-season value outpaces their current production or how they’re being valued — at least how I perceive them to be valued based on their ownership rates. If they’re owned, consider trading for them. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week I wrote about eight players who are under performing their xOBA, so it seems only natural to talk about a few over performers today. There are a bunch of great cases to draw from, including Odubel Herrera and Xander Bogaerts, and below you will find a table that the players with the 15 largest differences between their wOBA and xOBA. Whereas many of the under performers last week were generally slow runners, many of the over performers are fleet of foot.  I have tried to single out the guys who are closer to average runners to talk about today.

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Have you ever had an idea that seemed crazy? Or maybe tried something with no real clue how it would pan out? Well, this is one of those times. Read the rest of this entry »