Deep League Waiver Wire: Feliz y Flores (Tyler)

In this week’s edition of Deep League Waiver Wire, we take a look at a reliever and a catcher unclaimed in a vast majority of leagues yet worth a closer look.

Michael Feliz (7% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 11% CBS) – 2016 hasn’t been a good season for fantasy owners who prefer to accumulate saves through the waiver wire. That there have been relatively few closer controversies during the first two months has forced the save-starved to speculate on relievers two or three promotions from the ninth. And Michael Feliz is no exception*.

The Closer Grid on Rotograph’s Bullpen Report has featured the same three Houston relievers for quite some time now: Luke Gregerson, Will Harris, and Ken Giles. But a reliever outside of those three leads the bullpen in K%-BB%, xFIP, and in limiting hard contact. And with 25.2 IP under his belt, he’s been there nearly the whole time, quietly dominating as the rest of the pen accumulated 9 blown saves. As you might have guessed, that reliever is THIS INANIMATE CARBON ROD! Just kidding, it’s Michael Feliz.

So, what’s Feliz doing so well? August Fagerstrom analyzed his arsenal in a fairly exhaustive piece on the main site so I encourage you to check out his typically excellent work. Feliz’ success primarily comes down to a downright filthy slider. It’s not just elite in terms of whiffs per swing, 48%, but also in its ability to induce grounders. The 77% ground ball rate on his slider leads all pitchers who have thrown at least 100 of them.

With two above average pitches, a ground ball rate over 50%, and a strikeout rate approaching 40%, Feliz seems to be breaking out as an elite relief option within one of the few bullpens experiencing turnover.

*And apparently this just broke while I was typing so get on it.

 

Tyler Flowers (1% Yahoo, 0.7% ESPN,  4% CBS) – it might seem odd to recommend a catcher batting .242/.348/.333. Admittedly this is sort of a niche endorsement so it helps to set some context. Catcher has been a complete wasteland this year, as evidenced by the fact that due to multiple injuries and a little bad luck, I’m already on catcher #7 in my home league – shed a tear for the Schwarbster. Even from that hodgepodge baker’s half-dozen, I’ve actually been the recipient of some pretty good production relative to the position. But if you want to see just how bad it’s really been, look no further than the Fangraphs leaderboard.

Catcher in 2016: Blech
Season wOBA wRC+
2003 0.315 88
2004 0.315 87
2005 0.307 84
2006 0.32 89
2007 0.311 84
2008 0.314 87
2009 0.315 88
2010 0.31 89
2011 0.309 92
2012 0.312 95
2013 0.307 92
2014 0.305 93
2015 0.296 85
2016 0.295 82

In fact, we could go back 50 years and we’d find only 2 seasons during which the catcher position registered a lower league-wide wRC+ than it has through the first two months of 2016. Suddenly, Tyler Flowers’ .348 OBP and 93 wRC+ doesn’t sound so bad. How’s that for context?

Flowers obviously plays better in OBP leagues and that’s why the niche recommendation. At 30 years old, he’s walking more than he ever has and his 25.5% chase rate is his lowest in 5 seasons intimating a far more selective approach. But Flowers is also taking more strikes, causing him to fall behind in counts which no doubt contributes to his 31% strikeout rate.

Flowers’ selectivity can be visualized in the heat maps below. In the first graphic from 2015 you can see he loved pitches high and tight, even if they were in off the plate.

Flowers_2015 swing rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In this second graphic, we see Flowers taking a much more disciplined approach this season, not just laying off pitches in general but eschewing the high heat for pitches middle in and out over the plate.

Flowers_2016 swing rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unsurprisingly, this new approach opens up the entire field, leading to better contact and a more balanced spray chart.

Tyler Flowers Spray Chart

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The interesting thing about Flowers’ season, aside from his new found plate discipline, is that he’s absolutely crushing the ball. You wouldn’t know it by looking at his ISO but Flowers’ average exit velocity ranks 10th in MLB among batters with at least 30 balls-in-play. Isolating fly balls and line drives, he ranks 20th.

Flowers’ problem seems to be one of the factors that supports his .361 BABIP and that is his launch angle sits at just 7%. Perhaps laying off pitches up in the zone has sapped his fly balls; after all, his pop-up rate is near a career low as well. If Flowers can elevate as he’s done throughout his career without sacrificing too much of the exit velocity he’s enjoying now, he could prove a very dangerous hitter at a position in which a just handful of extra base hits separates elite from early retirement. At the very least, Flowers is immediately playable in OBP leagues.





Rylan writes for Fangraphs and The Hardball Times. Look for his weekly Deep League Waiver Wire and The Chacon Zone columns this season.

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awalnohamember
7 years ago

Micheal Feliz’s theme song when he comes in from the bullpen is “Oh those Golden Grahams”