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Just a brief dispatch this week from the trenches of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, where the elite meet to compete and tweet, and where the Birchwood Brothers, for the first time in history, drafted a pitcher in an early round. (We drafted third and took Max Scherzer.) We will no doubt have more to say about our draft results in the upcoming weeks, but if you just can’t wait, check out the pulse-quickening action in our league, and all the others, here, and share your thoughts with us. Read the rest of this entry »

Previously in this series, I uncovered potential undervalued speedsters, power bats and batting average hitters – by comparing the Steamer projections to the current NFBC ADP. Now the focus turns to run production counting statistics, in the form of runs batted in.

In 2018, there were 40 players with least 85 RBI. There were 21 players above the 95 mark, and 10 with 105 runs batted in. World Series champion J.D. Martinez led all of baseball with 130 RBI. Khris Davis of Oakland came in second with 123.

Prospective projections though, are typically more conservative. Steamer projects the top RBI accumulator, Giancarlo Stanton, for 114 RBI. Only 5 players are projected to knock in 100 or more runs. For today’s analysis, I will focus on all players with a Steamer projection of 84 RBI or more. [I was going to choose 85 – however setting the threshold at 84 added a few interesting names.] This should give us a group of players who can greatly help your team’s RBI totals for the upcoming fantasy season.

As always, for these draft value comparisons, I look at:

• The player ranks as computed by the FanGraphs Auction Calculator with Steamer projections (standard NFBC 15 team roto league settings).
• The current NFBC ADP (of Draft Championship leagues from January 31 to present).

Below are the players selected within the top 30 ADP, who also have a Steamer projection of at least 84 RBI:

These 16 players are projected to provide an excellent run producing base for your draft. Once again, Juan Soto, the Nationals sophomore standout, just missed this list at an ADP of 31.

Below are all of the remaining players in the draft pool with a Steamer projection of at least 84 RBI:

The players above are once again ordered by their difference in Steamer Hitter Rank versus ADP Hitter Rank. Differences highlighted in GREEN are the players who are going later than their Steamer values indicate that they should; differences in RED show the overvalued players.

What jumps out to me is the rightmost column. We have been accustomed (particularly for the stolen base bargains) to seeing more RED than GREEN. That is, we are used to the select scoring categories being drafted at a premium. This isn’t the case for Runs Batted In – many of these premier sluggers are available at a discount, anywhere from 1-3 rounds earlier than Steamer values where they should be drafted.

What also stands out, is that the largest overall ADP shown is Randal Grichuk at ADP 234. Only three other players have ADPs of over 150 (Carlos Santana 196, Nomar Mazara 159, Mike Moustakas 154). Unlike stolen bases or home runs, in order to draft a player that will knock in a considerable number of runs, you need to acquire them in the first fifteen rounds – most of them in the first seven or eight rounds. One of my themes this year is “The Case for An Ace” – that you need to draft ace starting pitchers within your first few picks. On the hitting side, it is these early to middle rounds that you need to acquire most of your bats – many of whom are undervalued.

Nelson Cruz shows up on yet another undervalued player list. He is the 15^th best hitter according to Steamer, yet he is going off the boards as the 60^th overall hitter. He is severely undervalued and can help your team in HR, BA & RBI. He sits at #2 on this list. Take note.

Randal Grichuk, Jose Abreu and Joey Gallo were all previously covered in this series, but here are a few other players from above that I would like to highlight:

Nomar Mazara (Steamer Hitter Rank: 61, ADP Hitter Rank: 100, Overall ADP: 159)

Let’s take a quick look at some of Nomar Mazara’s power and run production output for the past three seasons:

On the surface, it seems that Mazara is a steady 20 homer players, with low 60s Runs and low 80s RBIs. Let’s see if there are any issues with his batted ball profile:

The 2018 GB% rate of 55% seems somewhat worrisome, and his K% rate has been ticking up year over year from 20% in 2016 to 21% in 2017 to 22% in 2018.

Could last year’s surface stats growth reversal from 2017 be injury related? Maybe. He had a thumb injury, which hampered him (and he might have played through) in the second half of 2018. Let’s look at the past season by halves:

Obviously, we can’t just assume that Mazara’s 1H production would continue for a full season – but his pace was a .282 BA, 30 HR, 110 RBI, 90 R clip. Wow!  Let’s look at his batted ball profile from half to half:

Although that groundball rate was still high in the first half, the other 1H metrics were more in line with his norm (albeit a few less flyballs, but a somewhat lucky HR/FB rate).

Overall, it is unclear whether Mazara will have any more growth in 2019 – but he’s only 24 years old. If healthy, he should easily ride the 20 HR threshold that he’s held. Batting in the heart of the Texas lineup should be the impetus to get him to 90+ RBI. He’s only 24 years old … the best is yet to come.

Give a strong consideration to the young outfielder for an 11^th round selection, especially if you need to catch up in RBIs.

Rougned Odor (Steamer Hitter Rank: 51, ADP Hitter Rank: 81, Overall ADP: 129)

Sticking with Texas once again – we have the Texas second baseman Rougned Odor, brother of Texas minor league second baseman Rougned Odor (Yes, the two brothers have the same name, play the same position, and were in the same organization).

Odor has made great strides in plate patience recently. His walk rate rose from 3% in 2016 to 5% in 2017 to 8% in 2018! His hard contact rate went from 37% in ’17 to 45% last year. His line drive rate rose from 16% to 20% as well.

Although Odor seemingly had a down year last season, there is reason to believe his surface stats will rebound – and return close to the 30 HR levels in ’16-’17 once again. He should come close to doing so with a far better batting average to boot. Odor, like Mazara, is also still quite young – as this will only be his age 25 season.

The ATC projections do not share as much optimism as Steamer does for Odor’s RBI total. ATC has Odor projected for only 76 RBI [Steamer 84], but that’s still a solid total. According to Steamer, Odor should be the 51^st hitter off of the boards, but he is being taken a number of rounds later as the 81^st hitter.

Eddie Rosario (Steamer Hitter Rank: 36, ADP Hitter Rank: 57, Overall ADP: 92)

Eddie Rosario was one of my 2018 potential breakout candidates … and he was … in the first half. Rosario amassed 18 homers, 52 HRI, 6 SBs and a .315 BA in the first half alone, which is a first round type talent. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his breakout season – with shoulder and quad injuries in the second half. Instead of prolonged DL stints, Rosario played through the injuries, which made his final full season figures not as lofty.

Rosario is trending in the right direction in many of his batted ball metrics and his plate discipline – Fewer strikeouts, more line drives, and fewer fly balls. His improvements will set a nice floor for his batting average. He is also hitting more balls in the air, which will ultimately aid his power metrics. Oh yes, and he also steals bases (close to double digits each year).

He is healthy now; his power should return in stride. Rosario is a player who has big upside. At the price he is currently being drafted at – he is a bargain even if he just repeats what he did last season. Batting in the heart of a revamped Minnesota lineup, Rosario is a player that will give you excellent run production metrics at a discount.

Yasiel Puig (Steamer Hitter Rank: 31, ADP Hitter Rank: 46, Overall ADP: 71)

Yasiel Puig traded in his Dodger blue this offseason for some Reds … Red. With that, he moves from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. He will also move from a manager who took him out of games late for defense, to a better “playing time” situation. Puig only had 405 ABs last season [some injuries] – yet managed to earn mid-teens full-season auction value.

Puig has many paths to value. He steals bases – amassing 15 in each of the past two seasons. He hits for power – clubbing an average of 26 dingers over the past two years.

His ground balls have been turning into line drives over the past few seasons – giving him a solid batting average floor. Finally, he should bat somewhere in the middle of the Cincinnati lineup, which will afford him the opportunity to pile up the RBIs.

Puig is a five-tool player and is undervalued according to the Steamer projections. Other than health, he is at low risk for poor performance. He can be acquired on average in the middle of the fifth round.  A few weeks ago, he was being drafted at the end of the sixth round – so his stock is on the rise. Grab him now, while he is still going for a small discount.

I’m not going to lie. I’m being a little selfish as today’s article is a ranking I needed to personally work through and it’s now an article for everyone. I am grouping and ranking actual/potential closers to know who to reach for on draft day when it comes to Saves.

Note: I’m going to call all these pitchers closers even though some won’t close this season. All these pitchers have the potential to accumulate Saves though the chances for some are slim to none.

I went through the guidelines I use to value closers detailed in my book, The Process. For me, closers have three factors adding to their value:

1. Talent: Bad pitchers rarely become closers.
2. The Job: Possession is 9/10ths of the law.
3. Contending Team: Losing teams trade away their closers at the deadline.

If a closer has all three factors, they make my top tier. Every closer below them is missing one or more of the three traits. Some owners may want to mix tiers or use ADP to find values. Each owner should find the rankings they are the most comfortable using.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now let’s look—in our 100th Fangraphs article; yeah, we’re amazed, too—at hitters who were unlucky or lucky last season, and thus figure to do better or worse than people who are relying on last season’s stats think they will. Our method is simple, and is the inverse of the approach we took to pitchers last week. We look for players whose relevant stats are incongruent: their hard-hit percentage was high (or low) while their BABIP and Home Run/Flyball Percentage was low (or high). This incongruity of input and output signifies, we posit, that luck played an undue role in these guys’ 2018 season, and that Fortune, avulsive as always, will redirect the currents of their careers back to their natural course. Or something like that.

We’re sorry to say that the group of unfortunate guys is kind of meh. Whereas in 2017 (Marcell Ozuna) and 2018 (Mookie Betts) we were able to direct you to really good hitters who figured to do even better than the market predicted, we don’t have anyone like that this season. For example: the unluckiest hitter of 2018 was, hands down, 30-year-old backup catcher Roberto Perez. But what does that mean? That he will hit .207/.291/.397, as he did in 2017, rather than .168/.256/.263, as he did last year? That makes him a not-bad selection as your fourth catcher in a really deep league, but that’s about it. As you’ll see below, the action this year is with the lucky players. Still, there were a few interesting unlucky guys, and here they are: Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

If you were perusing this series back in 2015 you would have read this:

The Tumbler: Taylor Williams, RHP: Williams, not 24, has pitched just 174.2 innings in his three-year professional career, thanks to injuries. He missed all of 2015 due to an elbow injury and the concern is that he may eventually require Tommy John surgery, thus costing him even more development time. With a strong focus on obtaining pitching through the draft and via trade, Williams has slide down the Brewers’ pitching depth chart. The right-hander has good stuff — and with the durability concerns — he may be better suited for the ‘pen.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Corbin Burnes, RHP: The Brewers received some key innings from a number of young arms in 2018. Freddy Peralta pitched the most innings but Burnes arguably has the higher ceiling. The latter pitcher worked his way through the minors as a starter but pitched 30 games out of the bullpen for the Brewers in 2018. He has an excellent fastball-slider combo and does a nice job inducing ground-ball outs. His stuff may not be quite as crisp if he moves back to the starting rotation and he’ll have to continue to work on the changeup, which was mostly forgotten while he worked out of the ‘pen. If he sticks as a reliever, he has high-leverage potential.

Read the rest of this entry »

Time now to take our annual look at players on whom, as we measure it, fortune smiled or frowned last season. Our theory is that fortune, as is her habit, will turn that smile (or frown) upside down this season, and accordingly that forecasts for these guys based on last year’s stats will miss the mark.

What we do is simple, and readily undertaken by novices with just a few ingredients easily found around the house. We look for pitchers whose BABIPs and Home Run/Fly Ball Ratios weren’t aligned with their Hard-Hit Ball Percentages. We figure that a guy who didn’t get hit hard, but gave up a lot of hits and home runs, was unlucky, and that his luck will change this season. And also that a guy who did get hit hard, but…you get the picture. It’s not infallible—sorry about Luke Weaver, folks; we got burned too—but it works pretty well for something so straightforward. Last year, for example, it steered you toward Trevor Cahill and away from Dylan Bundy. Let’s see who it turns up this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Bear with us for a couple of paragraphs, and we’ll get where you want us to go. It seems to us, then, that there are three levels of fandom when it comes to individual players. The first, often atavistic one, is by virtue of those players’ affiliation with a favorite team. Thus, for example: we grew up near New York City, and happened to attain baseball consciousness at exactly the time that the Yankees were the only game in town—Dodgers and Giants gone, Mets yet unborn. We are accordingly lifelong Yankee fans. We recognize the pathetic, Seinfeldian rooting-for-laundry dimension of this. But we were with them throughout the years in the wilderness with Horace Clarke and the decades with the repellent George Steinbrenner in charge, so we’re not getting off the bus now, when they are a good team run and populated mostly by people who appear to be mature, sane, intelligent, and self-effacing. Read the rest of this entry »

Introduction:

The catcher position in 2019 is the weakest offensive position in our beloved fantasy baseball competition. It is no secret. Every reasonably astute or semi-intelligent fantasy player is aware of this phenomenon. The more experienced competitor is also cognizant that the position has been getting even weaker over the past few seasons.

Unlike the middle infield positions which I have discussed here, it is clear that the catcher player pool demands a correction to account for “positional scarcity.” A boost is required to the otherwise dreadfully low values that the position would manufacture on its own.

This may be elementary to some, but the idea is as follows:

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The Tampa Bay Rays

If you were perusing the series in 2015 you would have read this:

The Graduate: Blake Snell (LHP): Control has been Snell’s nemesis throughout his career — save for 2015 — and it came back to haunt him during his MLB debut in 2016. His 3.54 ERA was impressive — and speaks to his raw potential — when you consider his walk rate of more than five batters per nine innings. He’ll also need to better leverage his 6-4 frame to generate more ground balls after being an extreme-fly-ball pitcher in the AL East. Still, Snell succeeds by missing a lot of bats and his struck out almost 10 batters per nine innings in his freshman season. With improved command of his low-to-mis-90s fastball and slider, the young hurler could eventually develop four average or better offerings (He also has a curveball and changeup).

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Willy Adames, SS: The young shortstop made his highly-anticipated debut in 2018 and performed well — especially given he was just 22. With that said, there is room for improvement after he struck out at a 29% clip. Swing-and-miss has always been a part of his game but he has raw power to tap into and offsets the Ks, to a degree, with a healthy dose of walks, which inflates his on-base numbers. There is 20-homer potential here but he’ll need to get more consistent loft after hitting 52% of his balls on the ground during his debut. Defensively, Adames is expected to move off shortstop and his debut did nothing to quiet the concerns about his fielding.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back to my annual off-season series that has a quick-and-dirty review of all 30 minor league systems around baseball. This feature began way back in 2008.

The San Diego PadresIf you were perusing this series back in 2013, you would have read this:

The Sleeper: Matt Andriese, RHP Andriese has been one of my favorite sleepers for a couple years now and he continues to fly under the radar in part because he doesn’t have the electric stuff that gets scouts’ hearts palpitating. His fastball has at least average velocity but it’s the heavy sink that makes it stand out. Andriese, 24, is very close to big-league ready and he could settle in to the role of back-end, innings-eating starter.

Now on to the new stuff:

First Taste of The Show: Joey Lucchesi, LHP: What a year for Lucchesi, a former fourth round pick who needed just over one full year of baseball to reach The Show. He benefited from advanced control while incorporating basically a two-pitch attack with his fastball and changeup. Lucchesi may need to rely on a breaking ball more often in his sophomore season in the Majors now that the scouting report is out on him. He was hurt by the home run ball in 2018 and oddly gave up more homers at home. He’ll need an added weapon against right-handed hitters with almost half the hits against him going for extra bases.

Read the rest of this entry »