Closer Rankings & Tiers
I’m not going to lie. I’m being a little selfish as today’s article is a ranking I needed to personally work through and it’s now an article for everyone. I am grouping and ranking actual/potential closers to know who to reach for on draft day when it comes to Saves.
Note: I’m going to call all these pitchers closers even though some won’t close this season. All these pitchers have the potential to accumulate Saves though the chances for some are slim to none.
I went through the guidelines I use to value closers detailed in my book, The Process. For me, closers have three factors adding to their value:
- Talent: Bad pitchers rarely become closers.
- The Job: Possession is 9/10ths of the law.
- Contending Team: Losing teams trade away their closers at the deadline.
If a closer has all three factors, they make my top tier. Every closer below them is missing one or more of the three traits. Some owners may want to mix tiers or use ADP to find values. Each owner should find the rankings they are the most comfortable using.
For each of the closers, I’ve included their NFBC ADP, min and max pick, my rankings based just on projected stats, my adjusted rankings, and a composite stat projection. Let the disagreements begin.
Just as a note, I will update these rankings in my spring training spreadsheet which contains quite a few bits of useful information.
All Three Traits
These are the best of the best and I at least want one of them.
| Name | Proj Rank | My Rank | Min | ADP | Max | IP | Ks | Wins | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Diaz | 1 | 1 | 30 | 49 | 72 | 70 | 106 | 4 | 2.50 | 0.98 | 38 |
| Kenley Jansen | 2 | 2 | 52 | 75 | 98 | 67 | 85 | 3 | 2.96 | 1.00 | 38 |
| Blake Treinen | 3 | 3 | 42 | 61 | 79 | 75 | 84 | 5 | 2.75 | 1.12 | 34 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 4 | 4 | 53 | 70 | 93 | 63 | 96 | 4 | 2.82 | 1.05 | 33 |
| Roberto Osuna | 5 | 5 | 66 | 83 | 103 | 65 | 71 | 4 | 3.03 | 1.02 | 37 |
| Brad Hand | 6 | 6 | 67 | 83 | 102 | 69 | 88 | 3 | 3.17 | 1.15 | 37 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 7 | 7 | 49 | 73 | 99 | 58 | 91 | 3 | 2.91 | 1.10 | 34 |
| Sean Doolittle | 10 | 8 | 85 | 102 | 131 | 56 | 70 | 3 | 2.91 | 0.97 | 33 |
| Jose Alvarado | 13 | 9 | 124 | 157 | 190 | 65 | 78 | 4 | 3.06 | 1.21 | 30 |
I’m not paying up for the top seven and will grab Doolittle after a closer run or pick up Alvarado later.
Small issue
| Name | Proj Rank | My Rank | Min | ADP | Max | IP | Ks | Wins | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe Vazquez | 8 | 10 | 62 | 88 | 106 | 72 | 87 | 4 | 3.02 | 1.16 | 34 |
| David Robertson | 14 | 11 | 97 | 168 | 225 | 66 | 92 | 4 | 2.92 | 1.09 | 23 |
| Kirby Yates | 9 | 12 | 102 | 118 | 142 | 67 | 91 | 4 | 3.18 | 1.08 | 32 |
| Corey Knebel | 17 | 13 | 92 | 132 | 163 | 67 | 98 | 3 | 3.13 | 1.17 | 24 |
| Jose Leclerc | 15 | 14 | 75 | 113 | 135 | 67 | 89 | 3 | 3.31 | 1.24 | 30 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 11 | 15 | 82 | 107 | 141 | 72 | 80 | 3 | 3.21 | 1.18 | 33 |
| Will Smith | 19 | 16 | 146 | 187 | 239 | 56 | 71 | 3 | 2.95 | 1.13 | 27 |
| Pedro Strop | 38 | 17 | 164 | 220 | 280 | 62 | 66 | 4 | 3.29 | 1.21 | 11 |
These closers have 2.5 of the three traits. I could see Vazquez, Yates, or Leclerc get traded mid-season if their team struggles. Knebel is dealing with Hader. Iglesias is supposed to be stretching out for going two innings. They each have a small chip from being perfect.
Job Yes, Talent No (Rob Silver Specials)
| Name | Proj Rank | My Rank | Min | ADP | Max | IP | Ks | Wins | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Giles | 16 | 18 | 93 | 130 | 156 | 64 | 76 | 2 | 3.55 | 1.16 | 32 |
| Cody Allen | 18 | 19 | 84 | 152 | 213 | 66 | 81 | 3 | 3.77 | 1.23 | 31 |
| Wade Davis | 12 | 20 | 90 | 116 | 143 | 62 | 74 | 3 | 3.76 | 1.24 | 35 |
| Mychal Givens | 21 | 21 | 160 | 216 | 276 | 73 | 79 | 3 | 3.75 | 1.21 | 25 |
| Shane Greene | 26 | 22 | 186 | 252 | 336 | 66 | 66 | 3 | 4.28 | 1.32 | 28 |
| Hunter Strickland | 66 | 23 | 196 | 286 | 440 | 53 | 47 | 3 | 4.16 | 1.36 | 12 |
My podcast partner, Rob Silver, loves dipping into these closers to get his Saves and says to hell with his WHIP and ERA. Rob probably cares about his rate stats but he’s just not going to pay a premium on Saves.
Another obvious trend is that these closers are generally on bad teams so their Save totals will be low.
Closer Roulette
| Name | Proj Rank | My Rank | Min | ADP | Max | IP | Ks | Wins | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Hicks | 35 | 24 | 158 | 203 | 271 | 68 | 65 | 3 | 3.75 | 1.37 | 20 |
| Matt Barnes | 22 | 25 | 205 | 290 | 386 | 65 | 88 | 4 | 3.51 | 1.24 | 21 |
| Trevor May | 40 | 26 | 190 | 251 | 296 | 59 | 70 | 3 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 14 |
| Arodys Vizcaino | 27 | 27 | 142 | 182 | 224 | 55 | 62 | 3 | 3.67 | 1.28 | 25 |
| Andrew Miller | 20 | 28 | 121 | 210 | 267 | 62 | 85 | 4 | 2.77 | 1.05 | 18 |
| Josh Hader | 24 | 29 | 75 | 96 | 137 | 81 | 116 | 4 | 2.93 | 1.12 | 8 |
| Archie Bradley | 28 | 30 | 152 | 189 | 262 | 67 | 71 | 3 | 3.56 | 1.26 | 22 |
| Drew Steckenrider | 29 | 31 | 179 | 240 | 309 | 67 | 79 | 3 | 3.41 | 1.23 | 19 |
| Brad Boxberger | 34 | 32 | 157 | 363 | 573 | 59 | 68 | 2 | 4.22 | 1.36 | 23 |
| Alex Colome | 36 | 33 | 169 | 225 | 279 | 67 | 69 | 3 | 3.45 | 1.21 | 14 |
| Ryan Brasier | 37 | 34 | 230 | 396 | 521 | 64 | 58 | 3 | 3.69 | 1.20 | 15 |
| A.J. Minter | 39 | 35 | 158 | 227 | 292 | 62 | 72 | 3 | 3.65 | 1.24 | 13 |
| Sergio Romo | 43 | 36 | 243 | 473 | 592 | 64 | 69 | 3 | 3.75 | 1.19 | 10 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 45 | 37 | 169 | 318 | 370 | 62 | 59 | 3 | 3.76 | 1.21 | 11 |
| Jared Hughes | 85 | 38 | 452 | 568 | 595 | 70 | 53 | 4 | 3.58 | 1.29 | 3 |
| Blake Parker | 48 | 39 | 225 | 341 | 415 | 63 | 66 | 3 | 3.89 | 1.23 | 10 |
| Nate Jones | 62 | 40 | 388 | 527 | 591 | 50 | 55 | 3 | 3.44 | 1.22 | 7 |
| Greg Holland | 78 | 41 | 178 | 359 | 512 | 51 | 55 | 2 | 4.20 | 1.43 | 11 |
| Wily Peralta | 141 | 42 | 242 | 350 | 459 | 60 | 52 | 2 | 4.75 | 1.57 | 9 |
These pitchers are, at a minimum, a potential closer. The key word here is potential. I could come up with a scenario of why each could get 30 Saves. I could also see how each one gets none. Someone on this list will end up with a being a top-five closer, I just don’t know for sure who.
Talented Setup Men
| Name | Proj Rank | My Rank | Min | ADP | Max | IP | Ks | Wins | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seranthony Dominguez | 30 | 43 | 151 | 197 | 266 | 66 | 80 | 3 | 3.09 | 1.13 | 14 |
| Brandon Morrow | 25 | 44 | 107 | 249 | 354 | 47 | 48 | 2 | 3.44 | 1.24 | 24 |
| Dellin Betances | 33 | 45 | 164 | 266 | 355 | 68 | 109 | 4 | 2.84 | 1.11 | 3 |
| Jeremy Jeffress | 41 | 46 | 188 | 303 | 356 | 67 | 69 | 4 | 3.32 | 1.26 | 11 |
| Ryan Pressly | 44 | 47 | 250 | 397 | 459 | 69 | 83 | 4 | 3.14 | 1.13 | 2 |
| Taylor Rogers | 46 | 48 | 314 | 485 | 554 | 67 | 69 | 3 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 6 |
| Craig Stammen | 47 | 49 | 398 | 556 | 582 | 76 | 77 | 4 | 3.32 | 1.17 | 3 |
| Jeurys Familia | 52 | 50 | 259 | 437 | 458 | 68 | 78 | 3 | 3.12 | 1.22 | 3 |
| Joe Jimenez | 64 | 51 | 277 | 411 | 405 | 67 | 78 | 3 | 4.06 | 1.27 | 6 |
| Anthony Swarzak | 69 | 52 | 275 | 479 | 561 | 61 | 62 | 2 | 3.95 | 1.28 | 8 |
| Ty Buttrey | 79 | 53 | 259 | 440 | 448 | 64 | 66 | 2 | 3.79 | 1.30 | 6 |
| Joe Kelly | 83 | 54 | 424 | 537 | 596 | 66 | 71 | 3 | 3.57 | 1.31 | 2 |
These pitchers have skills but not a closer’s job. They are the pitchers who will step in if a closer gets hurt or struggles. Personally, I’m not targeting them in a draft. I’ll gamble on the Roulette class, see who sticks, and then move to this group once the season starts. These arms can be nice fill-ins if a team needs to sit a starter (e.g. at Colorado start).
Damn Yankees
| Name | Proj Rank | My Rank | Min | ADP | Max | IP | Ks | Wins | ERA | WHIP | SV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Green | 50 | 55 | 344 | 489 | 500 | 67 | 81 | 4 | 3.18 | 1.12 | 0 |
| Adam Ottavino | 51 | 56 | 222 | 318 | 451 | 65 | 84 | 3 | 3.41 | 1.23 | 4 |
| Zach Britton | 68 | 57 | 276 | 433 | 428 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 2.92 | 1.25 | 4 |
If any team needs a lights-out-closer, the Yankees have five right now.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
How can Kimbrel being in the top tier now as you define it? He literally has no job at all.
I’d be knocking Kimbrel down a tier every 2 weeks from now until he signs. If he signs between now and week into March (presumably with a closer’s gig) then he’d be a Tier 1 for sure. If mid-March rolls around before he signs I would without hesitation knock him down a tier. If he doesn’t sign on until late March he turns into just a guy who has the job until he loses it due to ineffectiveness because he missed spring training. Anything after that and he’s a flier to me.
He’ll get it sooner than later
I would add a. fourth factor: injury history
Doolittle may meet your criteria to be in the top tier, but you’d be betting on fools gold if you think he’ll stay healthy all season.
Now let me ask you this, because I’ve been considering Doctor Doolittle’d health, too. Which closer can you point to and tell me that you feel much better that they’ll be healthy or keep the job all season compared to Doolittle? I know there are no guarantees in baseball overall, but closers/relievers in general are pretty injury prone. There was an article published on rotographs a couple years ago by, hmmmmm… Jeff Zimmerman I think that gave percentage chances that closers kept their jobs all year. In that article it was discussed that 69% (Sporer-nice) of all closers lose their jobs because of either performance or injury. Phew. Sorry to get long winded, but my point is that I will take the great performance Doolittle will give when he is on the field as opposed to taking a different closer just because they might appear to be more injury-resistant.
Vazquez easily, he is under contract affordably through 2023, Bucs arent trading him. Should be top 5 here. Even if they did trade him it would be for a ransom and the acquiring team would certainly be paying to use him as a closer.
Vazquez’ peripherals were not pretty last year. He does not offer the consistency of an elite player. Sure, I can see the case a year ago but last year happened.
I just don’t think Doolittle should be in Tier 1. He hasn’t lasted a whole season yet. Sure he might this year, but again, that would be the first time. I think Vazquez, Yates, Leclerc are equal or better options.
You are underselling Doolittle’s strongest trait – he has actually done it before. You are welcome to proclaim the guys that have not done it for a full year to be better, but I will take the guy who has been great in the role for many years. Some of those pop-up guys will implode, others arms will fall off, some will never touch their peripherals from last year. All of those things could happen to Doolittle too, but at least there is some track record with SD. I would rather have Doolittle than Vazquez, but I can understand that people love the latter. The other two need to prove that they can repeat and remain healthy.
This is the most volatile list of closers I have seen in a long time. I would bet that > 50% of tier 1 are not closers by end of season.
Agreed, which is why I am employing the Rob Silver method. I can’t bypass a good bat or SP for such a risky investment. I want saves, but if I don’t get my saves I want my O and SP to be good enough to overcome it. Paying up for a tier 1 who busts can ruin a season.
People in my league draft elite closers high, so I always grab quantity over quality out of tiers 3,4, and 5, and beyond. I have to commit an extra roster spot or 2 for this strategy.
How much faith do we FG denizens really have that Alvarado will see typical / even semi-typical closer use and rack up nearly 30 saves? I am concerned by his Left handedness and TB’s ‘progressiveness’.
yeah i own him and love him but i’m not sure exactly what’s going to happen yet. he’s in my own personal tier one just because he was Impossible (sheds a single tear for sullivan) down the stretch and i THINK he’ll get saves, but by the standards described here, saying he simply “has the job” seems optimistic at this stage
Surely Avarado belongs in the Closer Roulette category….
https://mobile.twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/1095389944485462022
I think you should have many concerns about that. I don’t think he is near tier 1 for many reasons including those. Every TB player is getting the Fangraphs bump for 2019, so why not the closer?
I like Matt Barnes as I think the stuff is there for a move to Closer based on his career best 14.5 SwStr% (even if it came with some control issues). His FIP is almost a full run less than his ERA was last year too. And he said today that he and Cora are talking about it and he thinks he can be the closer: https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/matt-barnes-makes-his-case-become-red-sox-closer. I’m adding speculatively in a dynasty league where he’s available and dropping Minter.
For me, it feels like Felipe is ranked a bit too low, as he is basically the safest one out there.
Define “safest”.
Most likely to get a lot of save chances and not lose his job
Also, I love Alvarado but he is likely not the closer. They aren’t the type of team who is going to have one closer. Maybe he is the opener? Who knows. Maybe he will start 10 games in a row. Good news is, closing will now be a gamble. I am anticipating an absurd amount of faab going towards it early in the year, because it seems that moving forward there will be very few “closers”
Agreed, the Rays are a tough case to predict. The other guy in the Rays bullpen that might end up getting some saves is Diego Castillo. He’s a good guy to handcuff to Alvarado if one is going to gamble on that team.
Technically, Hicks and Miller have all 3 factors, but since they’re sharing the job, it makes sense that they were dropped to Group 4.
Neither one has sole possession of the job.
Yeah, that’s pretty much what I just said, yet sole possession of the job technically wasn’t specified to be part of the job factor. [sarcasm]Way to add to the discussion.[/sarcasm]
I would think the issue with Giles is more that he’s a trade candidate rather than a lack of talent. He had a rough patch to start last year but he’s not far removed from being one of the most elite relievers in baseball and looked a hell of a lot like that same guy again after he was traded to the Jays.
I also think Yates is a fairly safe pick, and I’m getting him everywhere. The Padres are shifting into go-for-it mode, with so much elite talent that is MLB ready. Each of Urias, Tatis, Mejia, and Paddack are Top 60 prospects that would make the opening day roster if based on merit alone, and they all will likely be up by the Super 2 deadline.Not to mention Dinelson Lamet. I just don’t see them trading an ace closer – I think they’ll compete.
Overall I really like this idea, though, putting primary emphasis on likelihood to keep the job. It’s the one place tiers are acceptable, because they make sense due to the binary nature of the saves stat.
Giles has never been one of the most elite RP in baseball. He is the biggest overpay for a RP in history, but he never lived up to that. No contending team can live with his aptitude for blow-ups, but he can churn out some stats for a non-contender or a fantasy squad.
How in the heck is Alvarado tier 1? Are the Rays not a bad team? One season of overachieving in the tanking era doesn’t make you a competitor. Don’t the Rays not like the idea of set roles? Doesn’t his lack of track record worry you at all? His walk rate is pretty scary and I assume he has been sheltered as TB always has a deep bullpen. There is a big difference between being the guy who will face anyone and the guy who gets favorable match-ups and immediately bailed out when it starts to turn.
I think you need to update your criteria to include something about how teams manage their bullpens. There are now guys like Knebel, that check the boxes but who knows what the team will do.
Hopefully, in regards to the treatment of Knebel, no team demotes one’s top tier closer during the season and then make one think he might be closing at some point later in the season… but doesn’t really. Man, that was maddening.
What about Scott Oberg as a setup man / potential closer ?