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Introduction:

If you are reading this article, you likely play fantasy baseball. You are already well aware of the FAAB extravaganza which occurred two weeks ago. If your fantasy squad is sitting 40 points out of the money, the lure of an impact prospect on your roster was incredibly enticing. The peer pressure of bidding on a top 10 prospect surely lured you in to spend significant free agent resources on those young rookies.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI), was created by FanGraphs’ own Justin Mason. It is a compilation of 315 fantasy baseball experts – all who put out content one way or another (writing, projections, podcasts, etc.). The experts were divided into twenty-one 15-team 5×5 mixed roto leagues, with NFBC rules and regulations.

You can find out more about TGFBI and follow the experts here. You can listen to me regularly on the official TGFBI analysis podcast, called “Beat the Shift” right here.

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With the MLB amateur draft just over two weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is checking in on some 2018 draft picks. A lot of attention is always paid on first-round picks so let’s have a look at some of the players that slipped out of the first round last year and landed in the second round. The players listed below have all had strong starts to their pro career and are great reminders that you can find strong prospect values in other rounds. All the players listed below should be monitored for future value in dynasty leagues and, eventually, redraft leagues.

Sean Hjelle, RHP, Giants: Hjelle has a massive frame at 6-foot-11 but he’s not a power pitcher. Still, low-A ball hitters have struggled to handle him. He’s struck out 44 batters in 40.2 innings while inducing ground balls at a high rate of two-to-one. It’s time for the Giants to challenge the right-hander with a promotion to high-A ball as he should be overpowering these young hitters after a three-year college career. He’s a name to file away and monitor over the next couple of years.

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Having last week illuminated the situation with hitters, we now take a look at who’s been lucky and unlucky among pitchers. Our approach is the inverse of what we used last week. To find unlucky pitchers, we looked for guys who aren’t getting hit hard, but have high BABIPs and seem to be giving up a disproportionate amount of home runs relative to the number of fly balls hit off them. To find lucky guys, we turn it upside down. Read the rest of this entry »

With the 2019 amateur draft only three weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is reviewing some of the players from last year’s draft. Today, we’re checking in on 13th overall selection Connor Scott of the Miami Marlins.

The decision to start 2019 in full-season ball was a surprising move by the Marlins. The young outfielder was drafted out of a Florida high school where he was a two-way player (left-handed pitcher and outfielder). At the time of the draft, I wrote that Scott should be selected in the first or second round — but as a pitcher. Admittedly, the scouting consensus at the time was that he should be selected as a hitter due to his toolsy, athletic skill set. I personally loved his easy delivery, great pitcher’s frame and potential to develop at least two above-average offerings from the left side.

After he signed with the Marlins as an outfielder last June, he was assigned to Rookie ball where he posted a .630 OPS in 27 games. He was then oddly pushed up to Low-A ball for another 23 games where the OPS dipped to .572 and he struck out 30% of the time. On the plus side, he showed a willingness to take a walk with an 11% walk rate.

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Now let’s take a look at whose numbers so far might be deceptively good or deceptively bad. We do this by looking at a hitter’s BABIP, HR/FB ratio, and Hard-Hit Percentage. Our theory, which is not abstruse, is that a guy who has hit the ball hard but isn’t getting either hits or home runs has been unlucky, whereas a guy who hasn’t but is has been lucky.

We’ve done this in past seasons; sometimes we’ve been right. In the past, though, we’ve couched it in terms of players who might be traded for or away. Now, though, we realize that we and most of the rest of the world plays in no-trade redraft leagues. And even if you play in a league that permits trading, it does you little good to know that, say, Tim Anderson has been immoderately fortunate this year. So what?

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Max Muncy mashing lefties? Alex Verdugo, David Bote, Wilmer Flores and Yangervis Solarte picking up some extra playing time? It’s just part of what’s been going on in National League lineups lately. Here is this week’s rundown.

Arizona

The only change of note for the Diamondbacks in recent days is that Jarrod Dyson may be falling out of favor against righties. In two of the team’s last five games against right-handed starters, Ketel Marte has gotten the nod in center field, with Flores taking over at second base. Flores is starting to heat up, going 5 or his last 12, so maybe this trend has some lasting power.
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Today, I will attempt to develop a simple pitcher metric. My exercise will provide us with a recapitulation of the plate discipline data at our disposal, while at the same time afford us the opportunity to unearth some fascinating pitching tendencies of lesser known hurlers.

To do this, let’s start with the basic ingredients of plate discipline, from the point of view of the pitcher.

We can break down any pitch into these simple binary events:

1. Was the ball thrown in the strike zone?
2. Was the ball swung on?
3. Did the batter make contact with the ball?

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The first weekend of the season is behind us, and incredibly, all of the bullpen situations in the majors are stable and calm.

April Fools!
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In my previous post, I looked at the hitting landscape for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) drafts. I also analyzed my own personal team in League #6 providing player commentary along the way.

Now let’s focus on the pitching.

General Observations

Closers

The first closer, Edwin Diaz was selected in either the 4^th or 5^th rounds of all TGFBI drafts. Diaz was the consensus top closer.

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3/3/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is brought to you by Out of the Park Baseball 19, the best baseball strategy game ever made – available NOW on PC, Mac, and Linux platforms! Go to ootpdevelopments.com to order now and save 10% with the code SLEEPER19!

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Notable transactions

• Bryce Harper to the Phillies

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