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There might not be a more up and down player in fantasy than Kelly Johnson. After establishing himself as a useful fantasy second baseman in 2007-2008, Johnson completely fell off that radar at the position after a dreadful 2009. Just when it looked as if Johnson’s usefulness as a fantasy option was at it’s lowest point, Johnson responded with an incredible comeback season; in which he was worth 5.9 WAR. In the same environment that Johnson excelled in 2010, he faltered in 2011. A change of scenery may have helped his value down the stretch, but it makes Johnson one of the riskiest fantasy players entering the off-season.

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Last week, I tried to provide insight on strategies for arbitration voting in ottoneu, but with almost four weeks left until votes are due, I thought I would add some color to that lecture with a couple examples. I’ve identified a couple teams from the original ottoneu league that I think include some pretty interesting arbitration cases.

We’ll start with this year’s champion: Last Years Leftovers.

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At the end of each fantasy season, I always like to do what few fantasy sites/writers ever do for their readers.  I like to hold myself accountable.  You need to know whether you are getting sound advice and I need to know where I need to step up my game.  So with that, I like to go back throughout the year, both spring and in-season, and see just how successful I was in offering up advice.    When I saw Mike Podhorzer’s look back at his 20 Bold Predictions, I knew it was time to serve myself up as well.

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In mid-March, I published an article espousing Braves starter Mike Minor as a good $1 option in your auction draft. I was a relatively big Minor fan and considered him an undervalued/sleeper breakout candidate. Then surprisingly, Brandon Beachy won the fifth spot in the rotation, something I thought Minor had pretty much already locked up. While Beachy ended up pitching very well and making the move look good, is Minor still worth watching?

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Third base has been rather unspectacular in 2011, in both fantasy baseball and spikes-on-the-ground baseball. With the playoffs just a few days away, I remarked to a colleague just how terrible third base looks for two of the six teams that we know will be in the post-season and how it’s a testament to the talent that surrounds them. Those two teams are the Milwaukee Brewers and the Detroit Tigers, but their third base situations aren’t quite the same.

Just how bad are their respective third basemen? What follows is a quick history of ineptitude at the hot corner for playoff-bound teams and a brief fantasy analysis for 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

The fantasy season is coming to a close. Whether your team dominated all the way through the playoffs — or stunk from the beginning — it’s always important to review your teams at the conclusion of the season. What went wrong/right? Most of that analysis can be done simply by looking at your draft results. Waiver-wire pickups and trades can have a significant effect on your team, but you acquire most of your players through the draft. If you happen to draft well, you have a chance at winning your league. Draft poorly, and it’s almost impossible to climb out of that hole.

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I torture myself every year by looking back at what could have been.

I have a league that has been going on for the better part of two decades – it used to be housed on the old “Sandbox” but migrated to Yahoo many years ago and it has had anywhere from ten to twelve owners year to year. It’s your proverbial bragging rights league, although as we’ve gotten older, more money has been wagered but I’m convinced we’d play for a thimble just to say we beat the next guy. This season, it was set up as a pretty simple standard, ten team non-keeper points league with a snake draft.

With the draft well behind in the rear view mirror and the next one six long months away, I decided to take a look at the results just to see if there was anything to take away from it.

In doing so, I marveled at the bargains that people pulled during the draft, and it rather got me salivating thinking about what hidden gems there will be in 2012. What follows are the highlights from this past March, and a cool reminder that I ought not over-imbibe on draft day until at least the 20th round.

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Our own Erik Hahmann pointed out some great stolen-base options earlier this week, but there are enough teams desperate for stolen bases out there that we can try a different tact here. Did you know that the easiest team to steal on is the Boston Red Sox? And the hardest is in Arizona? And that the Red Sox have allowed more than twice as many stolen bases as the Diamondbacks?

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When the season is over, it is not the time to ignore a keeper team until next spring. With a few post season chores, an owner can put themselves in better position for next season.

The first item is to find players that owners may covet this up coming season, but were useless this past season. They could have been injured or in the minors. I previously looked at players on the DL that can be picked up as potential keepers for next season (more suggestions in the comments).

The second group of players to target are minor league prospects. Some owners irrationally love them. Use them when making trades with these owners. A few sources released mid season prospect lists to give an idea of what prospects may be the most desirable. Besides using prospect lists, look to the rosters of the Arizona Fall League for inspiration. After the World Series is over, it will be the only baseball going on, so it will get plenty of coverage. A few players will start to get over hyped.

If you are torn between 2 prospects, follow these two rules:

1. Take the hitter. On average, they are more valuable in the long run.
2. Take the player closer to the majors. An owner wants the player to play. They are not wanting someone to look pretty on the bench.

After targeting a few players, it is time to bump the dead weight off your team. These players will not be keepers on any team and are usually non-save relievers and bench players. They were kept to make sure pitching and hitting slots were full during the season, but they are useless now. No one is going to trade for or keep them with dozens of similar players available on the waiver wire. Start filling your roster with some possible trade targets and dump this dead weight.

Next, create a spreadsheet of the players on all the teams. It will take a bit of time, but it is well worth the effort. Go through and designate what you think each team should keep. I begin ranking, linking articles or just jotting a few personal notes on certain players. An owner should then have a good idea of players available in the draft and which owners have an abundance or lack of players you desire. An owner can then begin to target other owners with their roster needs and wants.

After that, post and/or email the type of players you are looking to pick up. Don’t get too specific now, just something like, “I am looking to move SP for IF help”. I wouldn’t push too hard to make trades now since owners are tired after the long season. Owners know you are willing to trade and know your wants. They can contact you once they look at their rosters later.

Finally, check up on your league 2 to 3 times a week during the off season. The main item to look for are players being dump to the waiver wire that are better than the ones on your team. Pick them up. Also, teams may be posting messages of players they are looking to trade. The league doesn’t need to be check every day, but don’t be a stranger.

The season has ended and it is time to take a break from your keeper league. Just spending a hour or two after the season is over will pay dividends later. Around the winter meetings, action will pick up again. Until then, know that your team is in good shape to improve for next season.

I introduced Luck last week and expanded the work to change hitter’s Luck to a rate stat. Today I am going to look at pitcher’s Luck as a rate stat. Pitcher Luck is mainly linked to a pitcher’s ERA, but it can also be related to their WHIP (extra hits) and Wins (less runs allowed).

When I first looked at pitcher Luck, I added up the entire amount of luck a pitcher had over a season. This method created too much emphasis on playing time. If two pitchers had the same LOB%, HR/FB% and BABIP, they should have the same luck no matter how many innings they pitched. I took the old Luck value and divided it by the total batted balls in play (TBF – K – BB – HBP). After doing the division, I adjusted the values to a -10 to +10 scale (link to spreadsheet with 2010 and 2011 data).

Initially, LOB% and BABIP got the same weightings and HR/FB% was weighted twice as much as the other two. I am keeping the HR/FB% weighting, but only giving a weighting of 1/2 for both of BABIP and LOB%. The reason for this change is that LOB% is directly related to having a higher BABIP. Luck on balls in play will be taken into account, but not as much as before.

With these new adjustments, here is a look at leaders and laggards for both the new and old Luck values (> 100 IP this season):

Luck can be seen as the differences between the pitcher’s ERA and their FIP and xFIP. With each lucky pitcher, their ERA is less than their FIP and xFIP. The unlucky pitchers are the other way with their ERA being more than both their FIP and xFIP.

Additionally, I went back and looked at how Luck stood up last season. I took all the pitchers with the bottom and top 10 Luck values from 2010 and saw what their ERA did in 2011 (min 40 IP in 2011). Here is how 2010’s top 10 luckiest pitchers have fared so far in 2011:

Seven of the pitcher’s ERAs have increased with an average overall increase of 0.88.

Here are the ten unluckiest pitchers in 2010 and how their ERA changed in 2011:

This group on average saw their ERA drop by 0.82

The effects of luck can also be seen with Wins and WHIP. Here is a comparison of the chances of a win per start and WHIP for 2010’s luckiest pitchers and how they performed in 2011:

Per 32 starts, the pitchers averaged 3 less wins in 2011. Also, their WHIP was 0.06 higher even though their BB/9 went from 3.3 to 2.9.

For now, I like the results of pitcher’s Luck. It easily finds pitchers that may have their stats inflated by being unlucky on balls in play, home runs and sequence of hits (LOB%). It is a little late in the season to track pitchers for this season, but I will have of a final 2011 list and will be using it during the off season to help find under valued players. Again, let me know what you think.