Fantasy Accountability

At the end of each fantasy season, I always like to do what few fantasy sites/writers ever do for their readers.  I like to hold myself accountable.  You need to know whether you are getting sound advice and I need to know where I need to step up my game.  So with that, I like to go back throughout the year, both spring and in-season, and see just how successful I was in offering up advice.    When I saw Mike Podhorzer’s look back at his 20 Bold Predictions, I knew it was time to serve myself up as well.

Before I start, allow me to say that this has been a great first season here at FanGraphs.  While I’ve been covering fantasy sports for some time, I haven’t had the privilege of such constant feedback from those reading like I have seen here.  Yes, even those trolling around just looking for something to nitpick because their mom used the wrong type of peanut butter on their sandwich, I appreciated everything I read from all of you.

I also appreciate the opportunity that the editors here have bestowed upon me.  I am not the most advanced mathematician of the group and am probably the last person with whom you’d want to talk to about coefficient multipliers in complex algorithms, but I do have a firm grasp on interpreting the data and mixing it with the numerous intangibles we have in baseball and spinning it all into fantasy success.

All that being said, let’s see how many hits and how many misses I had…

Pablo Sandoval — Draft with confidence were the final three words of a post I did back in late February.  I strayed from the usual statistical analysis and talked about a number of intangibles instead that had affected and would affect the Panda this season.  Hit

Brandon Webb as a Sleeper — Apparently,  in honor of St. Patrick’s Day, I must have been nipping at the sauce when I told you to pick up Webb as a late round $1 sleeper.  I thought he’d be a steal.  Granted, if you listened, it didn’t really cost you much, but in the end it was a bust.  Miss

Not Drafting Joe Mauer in the 3rd Round — This debate from late March got a little ugly and even spilled into some angry emails from one guy.  I said don’t do it and cited production from a wealth of other catchers you could have gotten much later but failed to really emphasize his injuries and the risks of catchers staying healthy all season as my true driving point.  My explanation could have been better, but the point was dead on.  Just ask anyone who drafted Mauer too early.  Hit

Jake Peavy — Stay away is what I said back in late March, no matter what round you can “steal” him in.  While 7 wins and 95 K in just under 112 innings aren’t the worst things you could do to your fantasy team, the 4.92 ERA and extra time on the disabled list sure are.  And the only reason his ERA looked that good was because of a strong May.  His next three months were atrocious before finally being shut down altogether.  Hit

Jayson Werth — The title of the post was How Batting Second Will Save Jayson Werth’s Fantasy Value.  Well, not only did the batting second experiment not last long, but he stunk it up no matter where he hit in the lineup.  I was right about his HR drop and SB increase, but was way off on his average, runs scored and RBI.  For that, I will say… Miss

Jay Bruce — The start of the season was dismal, but on April 16th I told you not to worry about Bruce and that he would be everything you wanted soon enough.  From that point on, he hit another 20 HR in the first half and posted a .268-20-57 line up to the All Star break.  His second half was pretty awful, and while I never specifically said to you to trade him while his value was at it’s highest, I still say this is a….  Hit

Ryan Vogelsong — I wasn’t sold at first and told you to wait a few starts before considering him.  If you waited those few starts, someone scooped him up beforehand, I’m sure.  Miss

Alex Avila — Great start to the season, everyone talked about small sample size and his high BABIP.  I said to run with him even after May.  Hit

The Bullish/Bearish Series at RotoGraphs —  1.  Bullish on Mike Morse: Hit  2.  Bullish on Dan Uggla:  Hit  3.  Bearish on Carlos Santana:  Miss

Anthony Rizzo — When he first came up, I said not to jump the gun; that he needed more seasoning.  He looked good for maybe 8 of his 153 plate appearances and that might be generous.  Hit

Derrek Lee — When he was dealt to Pittsburgh, I said he was finding new fantasy life.  Unfortunately, he did get banged up and only had 101 at bats with the Pirates.  However, in those 101 at bats, he hit .337 with 7 HR and 18 RBI which, at the time you made the pickup, was definitely a Hit

Too abundant to cover right now are the 100+ waiver suggestions I made throughout the season.  However, in the spirit of sounding bragadocious, I will mention that a few of the really early season ones I suggested had some great staying power all year, most notably Melky Cabrera, Michael Brantley and Jhonny Peralta.

So there it is.  More right than wrong but certainly not perfect.  Guess I’ve got something to strive for next year…