Prospect Stock Watch: Hjelle, Breaux, Jeffers, and others

With the MLB amateur draft just over two weeks away, the Prospect Stock Watch is checking in on some 2018 draft picks. A lot of attention is always paid on first-round picks so let’s have a look at some of the players that slipped out of the first round last year and landed in the second round. The players listed below have all had strong starts to their pro career and are great reminders that you can find strong prospect values in other rounds. All the players listed below should be monitored for future value in dynasty leagues and, eventually, redraft leagues.

Sean Hjelle, RHP, Giants: Hjelle has a massive frame at 6-foot-11 but he’s not a power pitcher. Still, low-A ball hitters have struggled to handle him. He’s struck out 44 batters in 40.2 innings while inducing ground balls at a high rate of two-to-one. It’s time for the Giants to challenge the right-hander with a promotion to high-A ball as he should be overpowering these young hitters after a three-year college career. He’s a name to file away and monitor over the next couple of years.

Jonathan Bowlan, RHP, Royals: Bowlan is another big-bodied, inning-eater type that came from a good college program and should be facing better competition. But he was left down in low-A ball to work on his secondary stuff and it’s been so far so good for the right-hander. He’s thrown a lot of strikes and induced a solid number of ground-ball outs. The Royals organization has received great results from the 2018 focus on infusing pitching depth into the system by taking a run on multiple college starts with their multiple early picks. Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, and Daniel Lynch are throwing very well in high-A ball. Other 2018 college arms performing well with Bowlan in low-A include Austin Cox and Kris Bubic. All six arms could earn mid-season promotions.

Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins: The Twins have already enjoyed unusually good offensive contributions from catchers at the big league level in 2019 thanks to the trio of Jason Castro, Mitch Garver and Willians Astudillo. Jeffers looks like another catcher that could develop into a strong offensive performer behind the plate. He had a strong pro debut in 2018 and was then pushed to high-A to open the 2019 season. He’s got some swing-and-miss in his game but he’ll take a walk and has shown some gap pop that has a chance to develop into more over-the-fence power down the road. He’s a catcher with a big frame so there’s a lot going on behind the plate but he’s done a nice job of controlling the running game so far.

Josh Breaux, C, Yankees: The Yankees selected catchers with their first two picks of the 2018 draft. Top pick Anthony Seigler is currently playing in extended spring training but Breaux has enjoyed a strong run in full-season ball. The 21-year-old catcher was attractive to teams because of plus power potential and he’s gone deep six times in his first 27 low-A games. The worry with Breaux is that the power (25% line drive rate) comes with significant swing-and-miss tendencies and he doesn’t walk much, either, as witnessed by the BB-K of 4-34. His .296 batting average looks nice but it’s a BABIP-induced mirage.

Alek Thomas, OF, Diamondbacks: Thomas was one of my favorite prep bats because he showed an advanced approach as an amateur; he was an absolute steal in the second round. The 19-year-old outfielder has an .804 OPS through 36 games and has shown solid gap pop to go along with his above-average speed (although the baserunning needs work). The left-handed hitter needs to continue to focus on his performance against southpaws as his OPS is a measly .485 in that scenario. If he can improve against same-side pitching, Thomas has a chance to be an everyday stud in center field for the Diamondbacks.

Tim Cate, LHP, Nationals: Cate was a consistently-strong college performer but size concerns (He’s listed at 6-feet) and history of elbow issues (including Tommy John in high school) scared some teams away. The Nationals organization has received excellent results so far and he should soon see a promotion from low-A to high-A. Opponents are hitting just .194 against him and he’s shown the ability to throw strikes, miss bats and induce a strong number of ground-ball outs. His future is probably more of a No. 4 starter with a max of 160-180 innings but there’s value in that if he can be consistent and continue to throw lots of strikes.