Now that’s entertainment, right? Deadline Day was, in its way, at least as much fun as NBA Free Agent Day. But, unlike Free Agent Day, it doesn’t look like it produced much in the way of a shakeup in the standings. The teams that were expected to sell sold, the teams that were expected to buy bought, the rich got richer, the poor got prospects.

But a bigger disappointment, as far as we’re concerned, is how few deals produced unexpected Fantasy upside for those of us in redraft leagues. Downside, sure. If you were hoping that Hunter Strickland would become Seattle’s closer, we share your pain. And there was a lot of rearranging of deck chairs, whether the chairs wound up on the Titanic or the Love Boat. We were hoping that Tony Kemp would land an everyday job someplace, but with the Castellanosful Cubs he figures not to play a lot more than he did while he was DFA’d. Likewise, Shane Greene and Zack Greinke are probably marginally more attractive with their new teams than they were with their old ones, but not so’s you’d notice, even if there’s a redraft league out there somewhere where they’re available. Read the rest of this entry »

Every season as we head towards the July 31 trade deadline, we have a list of players we expect to be traded. Many of them end up staying put, but Nicholas Castellanos was one that was actually sent packing like we thought. Castellanos heads to the North side of Chicago to man right field for the Cubs, pushing Jason Heyward to center field, and the combination of Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. to the bench. So will the switch in parks boost his offensive output? Let’s check the park factors.

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With so many trades going down, I’m just going to go through a few and what it means to their rest of season fantasy value

Trade 1

• Astros get Zack Greinke
• Diamondbacks get Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer, and Joshua Rojas

Zack Greinke: The Astros grabbing Greinke made all kinds of waves in the real baseball world but in the fantasy game, Greinke gets a small value boost. The deal is that he’s already a start-every-game player and he locks himself even more as one. His owners don’t have to do anything but pat themselves on the back for drafting him in the spring.

Josh Rojas: Of the players coming to the Diamondbacks, Rojas is the only one with any 2019 fantasy impact and it’s small. Alex Chamberlain has a soft spot for Rojas since he’s made the Peripheral Prospects twice. While not touted at all, he’s a nice power (15 MILB HR), speed (28 SB) threat with a good batting eye (12% BB%, 14% K%). He’ll need to be called up first but if he does, owners should take notice, and monitor his playing time.

Corbin Martin, J.B. Bukauskas, Seth Beer: No 2019 value.

Trade 2

• Phillies get Corey Dickerson
• Pirates get a PTBNL and cash

Corey Dickerson: This trade would normally be made at the second trade deadline. The Phillies would add some outfield depth as they near the playoffs. So now, they are adding Dickerson (.931 OPS) to take Adam Haseley’s (.811 OPS) spot in left field until Jay Bruce (.825 OPS) returns from the IL.

The problem is that these three (and Bryce Harper) all bat left-handed. No obvious platoons exist. It might take a week or two to see if the trade creates anything actionable. Owners need to be watching this lineup closely to see how the playing time gets allocated.

Trade 3

• Brewers get Ray Black and Drew Pomeranz
• Giants get Mauricio Dubon

Ray Black: The 29-year-old Black just throws smoke with his fastball averaging 99 mph this year. The problem with his fastball is that he doesn’t exactly know where it’s going (in the minors, his BB/9 top 9.0 several times) and when hitters do square it up, it flies for homers. In two partial major league seasons, the fastball has a 15% SwStr% and 22% GB%. Besides the fastball, he also features a slider with an 18% SwStr% and 57 GB%.

Black has had some issues staying healthy which have limited his major league chances. He’s not going to immediately slot into the closer’s role but I’d not be surprised if he does at some this season with Josh Hader going back to the fireman’s role.

Drew Pomeranz: The Giants were forced to remove Pomeranz from the rotation even though he was dominating hitters with a 10.7 K/9. The strikeouts were his only positive trait with a 4.3 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9 helping lead to a 5.86 ERA. Most owners are just going to dismiss him but I’m intrigued to see if the Brewers tap into his potential.

One obvious change is to get rid of a pitch or two. His pathetic sinker is the obvious drop. While his change has been better this season (10% SwStr%), it has been historically bad (6% SwStr%). He could go four-seam (11% SwStr%), curve (10% SwStr%), and cutter (12% SwStr%) and be a serviceable streaming option. The Brewers added Wade Miley at the deadline last year, got him refocused, and now he’s one of the biggest surprised of 2019

Mauricio Dubon: Shelly Verougstraete covered Dubon in detail in a separate article. All I will say is don’t sleep on him one bit. I’ve been hoping he could get some major league playing time since he was with Boston. A five-tool player which will be mixed-league worthy if he could just get on the field.

Trade 4

• Astros get Aaron Sanchez, Joe Biagini, Cal Stevenson
• Blue Jays get Derek Fisher

Aaron Sanchez: Like Pomeranz, Sanchez has struggled to keep a reasonable ERA (6.07) with all the walks (4.7 BB/9) and homers (1.2 HR/9). By just logging onto his player page, I can see the first adjustment the Astros will implement, drop his s(t)inker. It’s only getting a useless 47% GB% and 5% SwStr%.

On the other hand, his four-seamer has an 8% SwStr% and a flyball inducing 35% GB%. After the Astros got rid of Gerrit Cole’s sinker, Sanchez’s sinker will some be history. Besides the sinker, his good curveball (15% SwStr%) and OK change (10% SwStr%) provide a swing-and-miss alternative to finish off batters.

It seems like Jose Urquidy is the odd man out of the Astros rotation with the additions Zack Greinke and Sanchez. If Sanchez can’t adjust and continues to struggle, don’t be surprised if Urquidy gets moved back into the rotation.

Derek Fisher: I don’t understand this pickup at all for the Jays. In 312 major plate appearances, he’s hit 10 HR, .201/.282/.367, 35% K% with 9 steals. While the being a power-speed threat is nice, he’s not much of a hitting threat. A sub-.300 OBP isn’t going to cut it in the majors. He’s Quad-A bat who may get on a hot streak once or twice during his career and become fantasy relevant.

Joe Biagini: A nice bullpen arm but has some fantasy value before the trades as the backup to Ken Giles. Now he has no value.

Cal Stevenson: Again, Shelly Verougstraete wrote him up.

Just when it seemed like Tuesday night’s three-team blockbuster was going to be the marquee deal of this year’s deadline trades, Mike Hazen needed someone to hold his beer in the final hours of trading. In dealing Zack Greinke to the Astros for four prospects (which, incidentally, included Seth Beer), the Diamondbacks’ executive vice president and general manager may have helped to change the complexion of this year’s postseason, but in terms of impacting the fantasy landscape, Greinke was going to be a must-start pitcher whether in Arizona, Houston or anywhere else.

However, Hazen made two other trades involving pitchers that will likely have an effect on some fantasy owners. Meanwhile, the trade involving possibly the largest impact on a pitcher’s fantasy value will get less notice for its real world consequences.
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The Rays and Brewers have swapped players with the Rays getting first baseman Jesus Aguilar and the Brewers adding reliever Jake Faria. Here’s my take on who gains the most value from now to end-of-season in redraft leagues.

Travis Shaw/Eric Thames: Not sure what is going on here. The Brewers are left with two left-handed bats for the first base job. I think both become two-thirds time plays with both splitting time at first and Thames playing in the outfield especially with Ryan Braun needing rest Lorenzo Cain getting banged up. Shaw could play around the infield once a week as he did before his demotion.

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What a great trade (and fight) last night. This trade has so many moving parts that I’m going to focus on those players seeing their in-season fantasy value changing enough for owners to act. I’m not going to touch keeper/dynasty values as league rules will determine much of the player’s valuation. I’ll try to get past the main characters and find those players who need to be picked up or dropped.

While I’m supposed to provide instant analysis on this blockbuster trade, the true fantasy value gainers and decliners aren’t going to be 100% known for a few days. Owners will keep sticking Trevor Bauer and Yasiel Puig in their lineup. While the park factors and league context will change their value a bit, it’s non-actionable. They aren’t going to be dropped or added so the trade doesn’t affect their value.

The exact gain rankings aren’t known yet as who replaces Puig and who Bauer pushes out of the Reds rotation. Owners in weekly FAAB leagues will have time to make a decision and see who the MLB teams use for replacements. In the wild, wild west of quick-click leagues, hopefully, I can provide the correct replacements, but I’m guessing what the Reds and Padres will do which isn’t the easiest. With the disclaimers out of the way, it’s time to get to the winner and losers.

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Looks like we’ll have to wait a little while longer until the real exciting blockbuster trades are made. In the meantime, a pair of lower impact moves were completed involving starting pitchers Jordan Lyles and Jason Vargas. Unfortunately, the park factors suggest both are going to be hurt by their new home digs. Let’s get to the comparisons.

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After the Andrew Cashner and Homer Bailey moves, I thought the floodgates would open for deals and prepared to write several trade write-ups. Things are starting to heat up with a big move on Sunday and already a pair of starters getting moved by Monday afternoon.

Marcus Stroman to the Mets

This was a shocker! Not that Stroman was traded, but rather where he was traded. The Mets weren’t expected to be buying anyone, but I guess they felt that Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson was too good of a price to pass up. Stroman does get out of the AL East, but the Mets aren’t exactly the defense that can maximize Stroman’s major groundball lean. There’s still a benefit of switching from the AL-to-NL, but overall this feels like a neutral move.

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In our first big trade of the non-waiver trade deadline season, Marcus Stroman joins the New York Mets, at which point Mets fans know all too well that he’ll turn into a pumpkin and never be effective again until he’s traded away. In all seriousness the knee-jerk reaction is that this move is fantastic for his fantasy value, given a more pitcher friendly venue and a switch to the National League. Let’s dive into the park factors to get more clarity on the change in home parks.

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Houston and Los Angeles.

Thanks for reading!!

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