Tanner Roark, Mike Leake and Zac Gallen Find New Homes

Just when it seemed like Tuesday night’s three-team blockbuster was going to be the marquee deal of this year’s deadline trades, Mike Hazen needed someone to hold his beer in the final hours of trading. In dealing Zack Greinke to the Astros for four prospects (which, incidentally, included Seth Beer), the Diamondbacks’ executive vice president and general manager may have helped to change the complexion of this year’s postseason, but in terms of impacting the fantasy landscape, Greinke was going to be a must-start pitcher whether in Arizona, Houston or anywhere else.

However, Hazen made two other trades involving pitchers that will likely have an effect on some fantasy owners. Meanwhile, the trade involving possibly the largest impact on a pitcher’s fantasy value will get less notice for its real world consequences.

Before breaking down the Diamondbacks’ acquisitions of Zac Gallen and Mike Leake, let’s take a look at the Reds’ trade of Tanner Roark to the Athletics. When the Nationals sent Roark to the Reds last December for Tanner Rainey, it set in place an experiment of sorts. Throughout his career, Roark had excelled at limiting hard contact, which enabled him to be a reliable innings-eater with a sub-3.00 ERA ceiling, which he achieved in 2014 and 2016. In going to Cincinnati, we were going to find out the limits of Roark’s approach, as he would have to pitch his home games in a cozy, hitter-friendly park.

For the first three months, the experiment worked out well — probably better than most fantasy owners expected. Through the end of June, Roark had a 3.36 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and a 23.6 percent strikeout rate. Most importantly, and most surprisingly, he allowed only seven home runs in 85.2 innings. In July, Roark finally got bit by the home run bug, doubling the total he allowed over 24.2 innings. Three homers came in a start against the Rockies at Coors Field, and another three came in a home start against the Brewers on a warm day with low barometric pressure.

Now that Roark has been traded to the A’s for outfield prospect Jameson Hannah, he should have few worries, especially in his home starts. Oakland Coliseum is not only spacious, but typically has heavier summer air than Great American Ball Park. Roark has been throwing fewer sinkers this season, but in throwing more sliders, he has been able to enhance his ability to prevent home runs. With the Reds, he posted an 8.3 percent HR/FB with the pitch, and that is only likely to improve in Oakland. As for road starts, Roark won’t have to deal with the combination of a tough opponent in a challenging venue any sooner than Aug. 30, when the A’s begin a three-game series in Yankee Stadium.

In addition to getting a better home park, Roark inherits an offense that has averaged 5.06 runs per game, which is more than half a run per game greater than the Reds’ average. As measured by UZR/150 and defensive runs above average, he is also gaining a far superior defense. While Roark currently squeaks into the top 100 in Roto value among starting pitchers (95th, per ESPN’s Player Rater), he could finish among the top 60 starters over the season’s final two months.

Even with a humidor, Chase Field is not nearly as advantageous for pitchers as Oakland Coliseum is…or for that matter, Marlins Park. So Gallen, who in a surprise move was traded to the Diamondbacks for Jazz Chisholm, could find himself allowing home runs at a faster pace from here on out. However, he should get an enormous increase from the 1.7 runs of support per 27 outs he received as a Marlin, as he moves from the 29th-ranked team in runs per game to the 10th-ranked team. Gallen will also now pitch for the team that is lapping the field in defensive runs above average with 40.8 (the next-closest team is the Royals with 23.2).

There is one potential concern with regard to Gallen. He is closing in on the total of 133.1 innings that he pitched in the minors last season, so Gallen’s fantasy owners should pay attention to any plan the Diamondbacks may have to manage his workload, should that come to light. If that plan involves shutting Gallen down before the end of the season, that could have a real impact on his value, since the Diamondbacks’ schedule gets easier in September. Over the next month, they have two series against the Dodgers, as well as road series versus the Rockies and Brewers.

All in all, the move is probably a lateral one for Gallen, but he should be a better source of wins going forward. Then again, with Gallen getting only one win in his first seven major league starts, there is really nowhere to go but up in that regard.

The same can’t be said for Leake, whom the Diamondbacks acquired from the Mariners for minor league infielder Jose Caballero at the deadline. Leake is touted for his durability and consistency, and those qualities have given him some value in quality start leagues. However, he has relied heavily on the offense-squelching nature of T-Mobile Park, where he has compiled a 3.01 ERA and an 0.66 HR/9 ratio this season. Over his 12 road starts, Leake has a 5.80 ERA and has given up 21 home runs in 68.1 innings. It actually looks even worse in HR/9 form (2.77).

Leake is owned in 58 percent of CBS leagues, 31 percent of Yahoo leagues and 21 percent of ESPN leagues. That suggests he is well represented in deeper formats and may even be owned in some 12-team leagues. With a tougher home park and a challenging schedule, there is little reason to roster Leake in the vast majority of mixed leagues.

The bigger impact of the Leake trade for fantasy owners is possibly picking up Leake’s replacement in Seattle. Justin Dunn and Justus Sheffield are both possibilities, and Dunn in particular (3.59 ERA, 27.9 K% at Double-A Arkansas) could be viable in deeper mixed leagues. As for Gallen’s replacement in the Marlins’ rotation, the short-term options (Wei-Yin Chen, Héctor Noesi and Robert Dugger) are not too enticing. Ultimately, the spot should be Pablo Lopez’s (shoulder) to fill once he returns from the IL.

In subtracting Greinke but adding Gallen and Leake, the Diamondbacks now have six starting pitchers on their roster. Alex Young and Taylor Clarke have been holding down the back end of the rotation, and of the two, Clarke would appear to be the most likely one to get demoted to the bullpen or the minors. In five starts and one relief appearance, Young has a 2.51 ERA and an 0.84 WHIP.

Statistical credits: FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Baseball-Reference, BaseballVMI.com.