Nicholas Castellanos Swaps Detroit Pizza For Chicago Dogs

Every season as we head towards the July 31 trade deadline, we have a list of players we expect to be traded. Many of them end up staying put, but Nicholas Castellanos was one that was actually sent packing like we thought. Castellanos heads to the North side of Chicago to man right field for the Cubs, pushing Jason Heyward to center field, and the combination of Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. to the bench. So will the switch in parks boost his offensive output? Let’s check the park factors.

So out of 10 compared park factors, Comerica Park (Tigers) proved more hitter friendly in six of them versus Wrigley Field (Cubs). Let’s start from the beginning.

Comerica increased singles slightly, while Wrigley suppressed them in 2018. Similarly, Comerica was neutral for doubles, while Wrigley suppressed them at the same rate as singles. Lastly, both parks were fantastic for triples, as Comerica ranked third and Wrigley fifth in the triples by right-handers factor. So clearly Comerica was a more favorable park in terms of non-home run batted balls falling in for hits.

Castellanos has been a BABIP monster throughout his career, never posting a mark below .313, and reaching as high as last year’s .361 in a single season. However, that has as much to do with his pristine batted ball profile that has been high in liners and low in pop-ups, than his home park. That said, he has posted a better home BABIP than away, with a .343 versus .322 mark. He should still be expected to post a better than league average BABIP above .300, but the park switch might have a marginally negative effect.

The home run park factor is the first we come across in which Castellanos gets a boost from the park switch. Comerica was exactly neutral last year, while Wrigley ranked in a tie for fifth best in baseball. That’s a potentially nice boost.

Though it rarely gets discussed, parks do affect strikeout and walk rates. Comerica actually suppressed strikeouts the most (in a tie) last year, while Wrigley was neutral. On the walk side, Comerica slightly reduced them, while Wrigley slightly boosted them. For fantasy purposes, the increased strikeout rate factor in Wrigley is more important, so overall, the move is a negative. After three seasons with a strikeout rate in the mid-20% range, Castellanos has improved that into the low-20% range since 2017. Obviously, any regression back toward his previous higher level is going to hurt his production.

Last, we find the two parks almost identical in line drive factor, while Wrigley suppresses pop-ups, versus Comerica’s inflationary factor. Fewer pop-ups is a good thing normally, but Castellanos hits so few of them to begin with, he’s not going to benefit any.

Overall, Wrigley inflated offense last year, but was closer to neutral when looking over a three year period. Comerica actually suppressed offense last year, but was slightly hitter friendly over a three year period.

So to summarize what we have learned, Castellanos could see a slight decline in BABIP and increase in strikeouts. However, that could be offset by a jump in home runs. That means that his fantasy value probably doesn’t change much from the switch in home park.